Picks of the Week - Conference Championship Weekend

Still positive for the playoffs is a good thing.  Trying to determine which prop bets might be worth taking in the Super Bowl is in the not-too-distant future.  But, what we have today is the most important weekend in terms of quality of football, as today should bring out the best games of the season.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Aaron Rodgers is your MVP, and this Green Bay team is a juggernaut.  Green Bay's offense is 1st in scoring, but what gets them there is that they are 2nd in third down percentage.  Plus, they are remarkably balanced with the 8th best rushing offense and the 9th best passing offense.  Tampa Bay's defense is 1st against the run, 8th in scoring defense and 9th in total defense, BUT, and it is a very big BUT, is 21st against the pass.  Aaron Rodgers should be able to carve up Tampa's secondary.  Green Bay will stop Tampa Bay more than the reverse as Tampa's offense is also prolific (3rd in scoring), but one-dimensional (2nd in passing, but 28th in rushing).

Green Bay Packers -185 Money Line over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bet $185 to win $100)

Primarily for all the same reasons as above.  If I feel that Green Bay is going to cover the spread, I should take them outright, escpecially since +$165 is the bests number I can get for Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers OVER 52

Both teams should score, a lot.  Especially if Green Bay takes an early 10-14 point lead and Tampa goes to an almost exclusive passing game.

Buffalo Bills +3 at Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes is the wildcard.  Even though he cleared the concussion protocol, he still has the turf toe which would limit his mobility.  Plus, Kansas City has not won a game by more than 6 points since November 1, and that was the New York Jets.

Kansas City Chiefs -175 Money Line over Buffalo Bills (Bet $175 to win $100)

I still feel that the Chiefs will win this game.  This is their third straigh AFC Championship game, and the Bills still have to show that they are ready to get over the hurdle that is the Chiefs.  Kansas City did beat the Billis 26-17 back in Week 6, so the Bills cannot sneak up on Kansas City.  Given that both defenses are relatively mediocre, they will likely determine the outcome of this game.  Buffalo's defense is 13th against the pass and in total defense, 16th in scoring defense, and 17th in rushing defense.  Kansas City's defense is 10th in scoring defense, 14th against the pass, 15th in total defense, but 21st in rushing defense.  This should be a great game.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54 1/2.

Despite the previous 26-17 meeting between the two teams, this game should hit the over.  As mentioned above, both defenses are capable of making big plays, but are otherwise mediocre.  The offenses, however, are anything but.  Kansas City is only 16th in rushing offense, but 6th in scoring offense, 3rd in third down conversion percentasge, and 1st in passing yards and total offense.  Buffalo is very similar, in that it is only 20th in rushing offense, but 4th in total offense, 3rd in passing offense, 2nd in scoring offense and 1st in third down conversion percentage.  If both teams play well, this should be high-scoring.

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Aaron Rodgers is your MVP, and this Green Bay team is a juggernaut.  Green Bay's offense is 1st in scoring, but what gets them there is that they are 2nd in third down percentage.  Plus, they are remarkably balanced with the 8th best rushing offense and the 9th best passing offense.  Tampa Bay's defense is 1st against the run, 8th in scoring defense and 9th in total defense, BUT, and it is a very big BUT, is 21st against the pass.  Aaron Rodgers should be able to carve up Tampa's secondary.  Green Bay will stop Tampa Bay more than the reverse as Tampa's offense is also prolific (3rd in scoring), but one-dimensional (2nd in passing, but 28th in rushing).

This is difficult, as the overs seem pretty good bets as well.  Despite the allegiance that many officials seem to have given Tom Brady during his career, this is Aaron Rodgers' year.

Last Week's Record:  4-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Playoffs Record:  6-7-1

Year-to-Date Record:  133-133-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $110

Playoffs Winnings (Losses):  $130

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($995) 

Picks of the Week - Divisional Playoffs

A ho-hum start to the playoffs makes this weekend's games even more important.  And, with only 4 games on the agenda, it is time to add the over/under into the calculations.  I hate that I do this column to pick all the games, when anything can happen between tonight and tomorrow (see the Saints backup center testing positive for Covid-19), but that is the way the NFL schedules games, so here are all the games.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Los Angeles Rams

I dub this game, the game of three Aarons:  Rodgers, Donald and Jones.  The class of the NFC this entire year, the Packers have the number 1 scoring offense in the NFL, and probably just as importantly, the number 2 in 3rd down percentage.  And, their offense is balanced too, ranking 8th in rushing and 9th in passing.  Plus, the defense is strong, ranking 8th in the NFL in passing offense.  The Rams have unquestionably the best defense in the NFL (1st in total defense, scoring defense, passing defense and 3rd in rushing defense and 3rd down percentage).   But, their offense is challenged, although with Cam Akers running the ball their rushing offense is tremendously improved.  Jared Goff playing makes a big difference, but is he fully healthy?  I think not.  This is Green Bay's game to win, and they should win handily.

Los Angeles Rams v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 45 1/2

This was a tough call for me, because I think the Packers will score more against the vaunted Rams defense than people expect.  But, I don't think the Rams will score much at all.  So, I am picking the under.  A 30-10 or 31-14 score would not surprise me.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

The weather is the wild card in this game, as snow is predicted.  That probably won't affect the Ravens offense as much as they rely way more on the run (1st in the NFL) than the pass (last in the NFL), and with a stout defense (2nd in scoring defense, 6th in total defense).  This will test the Bills rushing defense (17th in the league) and snow always affects passing games, upon which the Bills rely (3rd in the NFL).  But, Josh Allen thrives in leaving the pocket on pass plays (either planned or as a result of pressure) and I feel that both he and Stefon Diggs are both going to cause defenders to lose their footing, which will account for some big plays.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills UNDER 49 1/2

I hate multiple unders, but the snow is what is keeping me at this number.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

The Chiefs have the nmber 1 passing offense and total offense in the NFL.  Plus, did any of you watch their playoff run last year.  Cleveland does come into this game after a scorching performance against Pittsburgh, but does anybody believe that if there were 8-10 more minutes extra last week that Cleveland wins that game?  No?  I thought so.

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 57

Cleveland's offense is rolling a bit, so I say 38-21 or 35-24.  That ballpark puts me in the over territory.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at New Orleans Saints

It is with trepidation that I make this selection, especially given that New Orleans has already beaten Tampa Bay twice this year, but this is not the same Tampa team, particularly offense, since that week 9 loss.  Tampa has scored 31, 44, 47, 31 and 26 in their last 5 games, all wins.  Adding Antonio Brown allowed the team to give extra healing time to Mike Evans, who is back, and when Antonio Brown is your third receiver, good things are going to happen offensively.  That is a lot of people to cover (Evins, Godwin, Brown, Jones, Fournette, Gronkowski, Brate).  If anyone can slow down Tampa's 2nd ranked passing offense (and 3rd ranked scoring offense), it could be the Saints (4th in total defense and rushing defense, 5th in passing defense and scoring defense).  But, beating a team three times in one year is difficult, so I feel Tampa keeps this close, at least.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints OVER 51 1/2

Just too much offense between Tampa Bay and the Saints (5th in scoring offense).  I have to take the over on this

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Los Angeles Rams

The class of the NFC this entire year, the Packers have the number 1 scoring offense in the NFL, and probably just as importantly, the number 2 in 3rd down percentage.  And, their offense is balanced too, ranking 8th in rushing and 9th in passing.  Plus, the defense is strong, ranking 8th in the NFL in passing offense.  The Rams have unquestionably the best defense in the NFL (1st in total defense, scoring defense, passing defense and 3rd in rushing defense and 3rd down percentage).   But, their offense is challenged, although with Cam Akers running the ball their rushing offense is tremendously improved.  Jared Goff playing makes a big difference, but is he fully healthy?  I think not.  This is Green Bay's game to win, and they should win handily.

Aaron Rodgers owes my a big bet win, so here we go.

Last Week's Record:  2-3-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Playoffs Record:  2-3-1

Year-to-Date Record:  129-129-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $20

Playoffs Winnings (Losses):  $20

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1105) 

Picks of the Week

 

Worst week of the year.  Just horrible.  With a capital HOR!  Took away all my earnings from the year, and possibly puts me in the negative.  I won't know until I get to the bottom of this column and actually calculate it.  [Ed. Note - It did erase all my profits for the year.] Oh well.  Stretch run here we come.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Home team, short week.  Chargers with virtually no receivers.  Then Derek Carr gets hurt, then fumbles, then field goals instead of touchdowns and that's football.

Denver Broncos + 5 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Denver has been playing teams really close, winning by 5 at Carolina and by 6 at Kansas City in the last two games.  This game is a home game, on a short week in altitude.  Plus, Denver is a respectable 11th in third down percentage, and getting the defense off the field is important, especially in Denver.

Green Bay Packers - 8 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Packers are 2-1 in the last 3 games against a spread in which they were favored by more than 1 touchdown.  The "will he or won't he play" thing with McCaffrey has to be wearing on this team that has played really tough all season despite its 4-9 record.  The Packers are just too much right now.  Plus, I pick the home team on a short week.

  

Chicago Bears +3 at Minnesota Vikings

Let's not kid ourselves, I am taking whichever team is getting points in this clunker.

Indianapolis Colts -7 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Two weeks ago, I would have taken Houston in this game behind DeShaun Watson's remarkable season, figuring that the Texans lost by 6.  Now, the Texans are reeling, coming off a humbling at the hands of the Chicago Bears.  Houston's defense is 31st in total defense, 24th in passing defense, 31st in rushing defense, and 25th in scoring defense.  Jonathan Taylor to have a great game.

Detroit Lions +11 at Tennessee Titans

I know that Green Bay is a divisional rival of Detroit, and those games are always tough, but the Lions only lost by a touchdown to Green Bay.  I just think 11 points is too much.  Detroit 31-21.

Atlanta Falcons +6 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Who knew that Atlanta was going to play an important part in this year's playoff hunt, playing the Buccaneers twice in the last three games.  Tampa Bay is 21st in the passing defense and Atlanta is 6th in passing offense.  Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley keep Atlanta in this game.

Baltimore Ravens -13 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

This spreak is difficulty, because the streaky Jaguars, despite losting 12 in a row after an opening week over the Indianapolis Colts (who would have guessed that at this point in the season), have had some close losses.  Not this week as it will be tough with the Jaguars and their 30th ranked rush defense take on the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL.   Short week for Baltimore, so the spread is probably too high, but why not.

Miami Dolphins -2 v. New England Patriots

Miami always plays New England tough in Miami Gardens, even when a great disparity between the quality of the two teams existed.  This is a much different season, and Miami learned a lot about themselves in a tough loss to Kansas City.  Plus, Tuanigamnualepola Tagavailoa.

Seattle Seahawks -6 at Washington Football Team

West coast team travelling east playing the early game, except Russel Wilson has flipped those stats covering about 80% of the time in that situation.  Make it 100% of the time with Dwayne Haskins starting.  I still love typng "Football Team".

Dallas Cowboys +3 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco has had a strong season considering they lost all 41 starters to injury, 22 of them in the same game.  But, as the season has grinded along, they are just worn down.  I expect Dallas to capitalize on that.

Los Angeles Rams -17 1/2 v. New York Jets

This is a ridiculous line in an NFL game, but the Jets have lost by 17 or more 7 times this year.  And, this bet makes this game actually exciting.  Well, that and I have Jared Goff in the semi-finals of one of my fantasy leagues.

Arizona Cardinals -6 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Did Arizona right the ship last week by beating the Giants after 3 consecutive losses?  Or, is Jalen Hurts the remedy that Philadelphia needed to start to scare some teams and make a playoff run?  I think Arizona is playing the NFC East at just the right time.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at New Orleans Saints

The Saints desperately need Drew Brees back, as Taysom Hill is limited.  I think the Saints wished they played Jameis Winston a bit more during Brees' absence.  As it stands, they are going to lose their playoff bye.

New York Giants +6 v. Cleveland Browns

Cleveland is by far the better team in this game.  But, now hear me out, the Giants are 7th in the NFL in rushing defense, and might be able to slow down the Browns vaunted running game, which is third in the NFL.  That, and Cleveland has to experience a bit of a letdown after their stunningly close loss to Baltimore on Monday night (and this is a short week for Cleveland).

Pittsburgh Steelers -13 at Cincinnati Bengals

Brandon Allen.  Did I say Brandon Allen?  I meant Ryan Linley!

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers - 8 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Packers are 2-1 in the last 3 games against a spread in which they were favored by more than 1 touchdown.  The "will he or won't he play" thing with McCaffrey has to be wearing on this team that has played really tough all season despite its 4-9 record.  The Packers are just too much right now.  Plus, I pick the home team on a short week.

I really, really wanted to select Seattle here, but it is always better to take a home team.  In Aaron Rodgers we trust.  In Aaron Rodgers we hate, but we trust.

Last Week's Record:  4-12

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  109-95-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($985)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $760

Picks of the Week

 

Another really good week.  Could have been a great week, but for the damn Big Bet, and the damn Bears, who never once looked like they were going to lose until the strip sack in the fourth quarter.  Otherwise, the money would have been great.  Still up thanks to a 10-5 record.  Hopefully we can keep this rolling.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots +5 at Los Angeles Rams

Yes, I know, always take the home team on a short week.  But, the Patriots played in LA last week, and stayed on the west coast, so no travel.  I thought, for once, perhaps Belichick and found a way around the betting rules.  I thought wrong.  Perhaps it is because they were not at home for an entire week plus.

Houston Texans -2 at Chicago Bears

Just to think, DeShaun Watson was supposed to be playing in this game, except for the home team.  I will never forgive the Bears for that (or picking Curtis Enis over Randy Moss, but I digress.)

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville gets a jolt at home, to lose by 7.  Interestingly, the Jaguars have not allowed Derrick Henry to rush for 100 yards in any of his 4 games in Jacksonville, which is virtually Henry's home.  That fact, and perhaps the Titans let up just a bit against the Jaguars means they win, but don't cover.

Carolina Panthers -3 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

This game is an absolute crapshoot.  I have heard from lots of "experts" and talked to a lot of friends, and the consensus is all over the board (meaning no consensu).  I'll just take the home team, if I have to have a reason to justify it.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 v. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys' defense is atrocious (last in the NFL in rushing defense and scoring; 24th in total defense.)  Add that to the fact that Dallas is playing on a short week, and giving points.  I will take them.

Miami Dolphins +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City, although winning, has not been dominant.  In fact, there last 4 wins have been by a combined 15 points, and that is only because they beat Denver by 6 last week.  Miami has been playing tough, solid football in all three phases of the game.  On top of that, Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa is starting to get comfortable on the field behind center.

New York Giants +2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

This was a really tough one for me to choose.  Arizona has lost 3 in a row after defeating Buffalo. So, does that mean they are sliding, or does that mean they are due?  Well, they aren't quite a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing at 1, but they are coming from the Mountain time zone, so I am going to take the home points.  Should the Giants when this game, they would have identical records with Arizona.

Minnesota Vikings +6 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

How is this not a 3 point spread?  I know Tampa Bay is at home, but geez, 6 1/2 seems high.  Strength on strength in this game as Minnesota - which relies heavily on Dalvin Cook - will be challenged by the NFL's number 1 rated rush defense.

  

Las Vegas Raiders +3 v. Indianapolis Colts

Honestly, I just didn't want to pick a road favorite here.  No other reason.

New York Jets +15 at Seattle Seahawks

I know that Seattle is very, very good offensively (3rd in total offens, 4th in scoring offense), and their defense has played much better as of late, but the Jets have recently lost by 3 to the Raiders, 6 to the Chargers, 3 to the Patrtiots, and 8 to the Bills.  They only other games in their last 6 have been a 24-0 shutout and a 20-3 loss to the Dolphins, who clearly have their number.  They have been playing teams pretty close, so I will take 2+ touchdowns.

Green Bay Packers -8 at Detroit Lions

Seems like I have to pick another road favorite.  If this spread was 10, with it being an intra-divisional game, I would have gone the other way, but at 8, I will take Aaron Rodgers.

Atlanta Falcons +1 at Los Angeles Chargers

I don't know what think about this one.  This is also strength-on-strength, with Atlanta's passing offense (without Julio Jones) going against the Chargers passing defense (5th in the NFL).  Everything about this game tells me to take the Chargers, so I am taking the Falcons.

New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Maybe Jalen Hurts is just the jolt that the Eagles need, however the announcement that Jason Peters is done for the season - and his career - is going to be too much.

Washington Football Team +3 at San Francisco 49ers

This defense line for Washington is outstanding - and first rounders all (Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen.)  Plus, Alex Smith is THE best story in the NFL this year.  And, San Francisco is on a short week.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

No, I am not overreacting to Pittsburgh's loss to Washington last week as everyone should have seen that coming after Pittsburgh's tumultuous prior week regareding scheduling of their game with the Ravens.  But, before that, they had not looked particularly dominant.  Despite Buffalo playing on a short week, I am taking the Bills due to the fact that they have been clicking of late.

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

The Browns played their absolute best last week against Tennessee, and there is no way that they play like that twice in a row.  Yes, I am violating all types of gambling rules in this one (visiting intradivisional favorite; taking a team on a short week) but I feel the Browns aren't yet ready for this particular challenge.

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -8 at Detroit Lions

Seems like I have to pick another road favorite.  If this spread was 10, with it being an intra-divisional game, I would have gone the other way, but at 8, I will take Aaron Rodgers.

So, really?  I am taking a road favorite in an intra-divisional game, favored by 8 nonetheless, as my big bet.  Yes I am.  Why?  Because Detroit can't do that to me twice in a row, right?  And, because I have more faith in the Packers than the Saints (with Hurts being an unknown betting commodity) and Minnesota getting points.  Washington was a thought also.

Last Week's Record:  10-5

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  105-83-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $285
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1745

  

What a week.  The NFL schedule week 12 literally took an entire week, starting with the Houston Texans defeat of the Detroit Lions on the traditional Thanksgiving Thursday game, and ending with a thrice re-scheduled and finally played on Wednesday Pittsburgh Steelers win over the Baltimore Ravens, which featured Trace McSorley.  And really, Colin Kaepernick can't play in this NFL?  C'mon.  But, despite the length of the week, it was a fantastic bounce back game for your boy, going 11-5 and nailing my big bet.  So, I will take it and hopefully put together a winning-week streak.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions

Yes, the Green Bay Packers hammered the Bears last week, but hear me out.  This was the first game Bill Lazor called the plays with Mitchell Trubisky playing quarterback, and they actually moved the ball.  One horrendous interception in the end zone and one missed face mask on a Trubisky fumble, and the game ends up a lot closer.  I only mention this because the Lions defense is atrocious - 25th in the league in 3rd percentage, 26th in passing defense, 28th in rushing defense, 29th in total defense, and 31st in scoring defense.  Lazor is going to have the Bears moving the ball up and down the field this week, giving Bears fans hope, which Trubisky will take away 2 to 3 weeks later.

Atlanta Falcons +3 v. New Orleans Saints

This Atlanta team might be the best 4-7 team ever, and if they had some coaching and a bit more savvy and clock management on the field would be 7-4.  I'll take points at home in an intradivisional game.  They key is which team's strength wins out - Atlanta's passing offense, or New Orleans' tough passing defense.

Houston Texans +3 v. Indianapolis Colts

For much the same reason as above, I will take the points at home in an intradivisional game.  This is a tough game to figure out as the Texans lose Will Fuller to a suspension for use of performance enhancing drugs, but they gain David Johnson back after 3 weeks on the injured reserve.  All of this may not mean much against Indy's defense (4th in total defense, 6th in passing defense, 7th in rushing defense and 9th in scoring defense).  But, I'll bet that you didn't realize DeShaun Watson has a 112.5 quarterback rating this year, did you?  That puts him third in the NFL behind only Aaron Rodgers 115.5 and Patrick Mahomes (115.5).

New York Jets +8 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are a west coast team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, and the Raiders are playing without Josh Jacobs.  With Jacobs the Raiders have the 8th best rushing offense in the NFL.  Without him, who knows, but the Jets do have the 11th best rushing defense.

Cleveland Browns +4 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

This game is likely to be the first game completed on Sunday, as we should expect a lot - and I mean a lot - of running plays.  Cleveland, behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, have the best rushing offense in the NFL whereas Tenneesse - behind Derrick Henry - is no slouch itself; second in the NFL in rushing offense.  The difference is that Cleveland is 9th in rushing defense while Tennessee is 17th.  Honestly, I pick the other way if this is a 2 1/2 or 3 point spread, but with 4 1/2, I'll take those points in a game in which possessions are likely to be limited due to a running clock because of the ground game.

Miami Dolphins -10 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

I am honestly torn on this one, having gone back-and-forth between Miami and Cincinnati before finally settling on Miami.  Cincinnati played the New York Giants close last week, behind a subpar game from Brandon Allen (really what did we expect), but, it was the Giants and Colt McCoy made an appearance.  So basically, they are not good.  I am making this pick based upon Ryan Fitzpatrick starting over Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa, which still really hasn't been officially announced yet, but Fitzpatrick would love to feast on the 22nd ranked pass defense in Cincinnati.

Jacksonville Jaguars +10 at Minnesota Vikings

Mike Glennon is starting for Jacksonville, but he did last week and the Jaguars only lost to Cleveland by 2.  Like Cleveland, Minnesota relies heavily upon its rushing game (6th in rushing offense; 17th in passing offense).  Plus, Minnesota has not looked good lately.

Los Angeles Rams -3 at Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are coming off two straight losses on the road (to the Seahawks and Patriots), and will have to fight to end that streak at home against the Rams and their stout defense (4th in 3rd down % and rushing defense, 3rd in passing defense and scoring defense, and 2nd in total defense).  Kenyan Drake has not been playing well since his return from injury making me wonder when the Cardinals will go back to Chase Edmonds.

  

Seattle Seahawks -11 v. New York Giants

Colt McCoy.  I don't think that even Seattle's short week can make up for the fact that Colt McCoy is playing.

Green Bay Packers -8 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Aaron Rodgers, as mentioned before, has the best QB rating in the NFL this year.  And although the Giants have a pretty good defense, they are vulnerable against the pass (19th in the NFL).  And, Philadelphia is floundering despite being only 1/2 game out of first place in the NFC East.  Plus, Philadelphis is on a short week.

New England Patriots +2 at  Los Angeles Chargers

The Patriots have won 3 of their last 4 games, their only loss being by 1 touchdown at Houston.  New England is 5th in rushing offense and the Chargers are 18th in rushing defense.  Los Angeles is 2nd in passing offense, so we could see some explosive plays, but New England is playing about as good as this version of the Patriots can.

Denver Broncos +13 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

So, before anybody gets carried away, the Chiefs are going to win this game, but 2 TDs is just too much.  But, Kansas City has only won its last 3 games by a combined total of 9 points, and that was to Carolina, Las Vegas, and Tampa Bay.  All good teams, certainly, but not the upper echelon of the league.  So, with some quarterbacks back this week for the Broncos, and being an intra-divisional game, I expect this one to be close-ish.  Kansas City by 10 wouldn't shock me.

Washington Football Team +7 at Pittsburgh Steelers

An incredibly short week for the Steelers, having played on Wednesday afternoon and now having this game moved from Sunday to Monday afternoon at 5:00.  At least they were home on Wednesday, and on this Monday.  The game against the Ravens was a tough, physical battle, as this one is likely to be as well.  The Steelers will be tested by Washington's defense, ranked 7th in scoring, 6th in total defense and 2nd in passing defense.  The Steelers very well may pull out a victory, but 7 seems high under the circumstances.

Buffalo Bills +1 at San Francisco 49ers

I cannot figure out these San Francisco 49ers, and if you say you have, you are a liar.  So, to be fair, I have no idea what is going to happen in the traditional Monday Night game.  But San Francisco's passing defense is 4th in the NFL (5th in total defense), and Buffalo's passing offense is 7th in the NFL (21st in rushing), so it'll be interesting if the 49ers can contain Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and company.  I think not, for no real particular reason.

Dallas Cowboys No Line at Baltimore Ravens

No line pending the Covid-19 situation surrounding Lamar Jackson.  Mark Ingram II, Calais Campbell and others came off the Covid-19 list today.  The announcement on Jackson is expected to be made Monday.  I will make a pick once the line is set.

Bye Week - Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Big Bet

Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions

Yes, the Green Bay Packers hammered the Bears last week, but hear me out.  This was the first game Bill Lazor called the plays with Mitchell Trubisky playing quarterback, and they actually moved the ball.  One horrendous interception in the end zone and one missed face mask on a Trubisky fumble, and the game ends up a lot closer.  I only mention this because the Lions defense is atrocious - 25th in the league in 3rd percentage, 26th in passing defense, 28th in rushing defense, 29th in total defense, and 31st in scoring defense.  Lazor is going to have the Bears moving the ball up and down the field this week, giving Bears fans hope, which Trubisky will take away 2 to 3 weeks later.

Honestly, I hate making my Big Bet a Chicago Bears game, but I honestly feel like I saw something with the playcalling last week.  Not something like go far in the playoffs, but something that should be able to move the ball well against Detroit, with Allen Robinson getting like 10 catches, 143 yards type of movement.  And, I like some of the other lines, but I don't love them.  Atlanta and Green Bay I considered here, with Atlanta getting points at home a serious consideration, but I will stick with my original thought here.

Last Week's Record:  11-5

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  95-78-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $700
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1460

Picks of the Week

     

Six consecutive winning weeks.  Woo Hoo!!!  I know this streak is going to end, I am just going to ride it as long as I can.  As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers -1 1/2 v, Atlanta Falcons

Simply because they were the home team.  I couldn't get  a real read on this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers +4 at Baltimore Ravens

In this battle, I am taking the points.  I wish I did this earlier as the spread was 6 at the beginning of the week.   A battle of two very similar teams that know each other well.

 

Indianapolis Colts -3 at Detroit Lions

To below average offenses (Indy 23rd/Detroit 21st), but the Colts defense is much, much toughter (1st in total defense, 2nd in passing defense, 3rd in rushing defense, and 4th in scoring defense).

Green Bay Packers -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

Yes this would seem like a big spread for an intradivisional rivalry, except Green Bay is 2nd in scoring offense and going against Minnesota's 3oth rank scoring defense.  This should be a rout.

Buffalo Bills -4 1/2 v. New England Patriots

Nothing would surprise me with Bill Belichick, but this is not his year.  I expect Buffalo to score a bunch against New England.

Tennessee Titans -7 at Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals can move the ball through the air (12th in the league), but by every other metric they are not good.  At least Joe Burrow is proving worthy of the #1 pick.

Cleveland Browns -1 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Cleveland can run the ball extremely well (3rd in the league), and the Raiders (16th in the league) are mediocre at stopping the run.  Plus, we have a west coast team travelling east and playing the early game - although they do get an extra hour of rest due to the ending of Daylight Savings Time.

Kansas City Chiefs -19 1/2 v. New York Jets

This spread is utterly ridiculous.  Just ludicrous.  And I am just crazy enough to take it and give almost 3 touchdowns.  Frankly, it is because it makes this game more exciting to watch, and it is the only way to make this game exciting.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE THIS PICK.  Rookie quarterback making his first start against a team that is clearly playing well, especially on defense.  But, the Rams are coming off a short week and traveling east and playing the early game.  Who am I to go against the gambling Gods.  Did I mention that I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE THIS PICK?  But, the Tuanigamanuolepola era begins!!!

Chicago Bears +4 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Competing gambling rules here, don't pick too many road favorites versus Chicago on a short week.  I feel that since New Orleans' defense is nowhere near as dynamic as the LA Rams' defense was, that Chicago's offense might gain enough ground to keep this close.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Denver Broncos

In a battle of 2-4 teams, only the Chargers have looked better under Herbert.  And honestly, this spread and pick is another reason why I picked the Bears earlier, too many road favorites, but since Denver is only averaging under 20 points a game, I feel like the Chargers could score enough to win 27-17.

San Francisco 49ers +2 at Seattle Seahawks

San Francisco has struggled through a number of injuries, but still have the 9th total offense, and 8th rushing offense, along with a tremendous defense (3rd in passing defense, 4th in total defense, 5th in scoring defense, and 9th in rushing defense), they should have enough to take advantage of Seattle's horrendous defense.

Dallas Cowboys +10 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Horrible spread for a horrible game.  The DiNucci Era begins!!!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -12 1/2 at New York Giants

Tampa is averaging over 31 points a game, and the Giants only average 17.  And, honestly, if I am taking Kansas City giving up 19 1/2 points, I should take Tom Brady giving up less than two touchdowns.  And really, the story of Tampa Bay has been the emergence of Ronald Jones.  He is really showing why the Buccaneers were sold on him in the first place.

Bye Week - Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Washington Football Team (Oh My God do I LOVE typing that)

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

Yes this would seem like a big spread for an intradivisional rivalry, except Green Bay is 2nd in scoring offense and going against Minnesota's 30th ranked scoring defense.  This should be a rout.

The Aaron Rodgers revenge tour continues - even with Aaron Jones injured (who was having a phenomenal season), and I wanted to pick for my Big Bet a home team.  My other thoughts were Buffalo over New England, and Tennessee over Cincinnati.

Last Week's Record:  7-6-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  61-41-3
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $190
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $2640

Picks of the Week

     

So, I don't care about jinxing myself at this point, as a losing week is inevitable, but last week was my fifth consecutive winning week.  Sure, the picks were at .500, but with the big bet, I finished on the plus side again.  As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New York Giants +5 at Philadelphia Eagles

This goes against the gambling rules, but Zach Ertz was hurt, as was Miles Sanders, and the offensive line is horrible.  I know the Giants are not good, but they are not 5 points worse than Philadelphia.

Tennessee Titans -1 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I have no idea what to do here, so I am just taking the home team since it is virtually a pick 'em.

Atlanta Falcons -2 v. Detroit Lions

Both teams are horrible on defense, but the Falcons do have the 4th best total offense, and they don't look as bad as Detroit does.

Cleveland Browns -3 at Cincinnati Bengals

Road intra-divisional favorites are always a tough bet, but Cincinnati, despite a promising future with Joe Burrow, still lack a lot of talent, especially on the defense.  Cincinnati's 27th ranked rush defense now has to compete with Cleveland's top-ranked rushing offense, which hasn't missed a beat despite losing starter Nick Chubb to injury.

Carolina Panthers +7 at New Orleans Saints

New Orleans just hasn't looked entirely right this season, and now they will be without starting wide receivers Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.  Alvin Kamara has a ton of talent, but cannot do absolutely everything.

New York Jets +10 v. Buffalo Bills

I hate doing this, but I feel compelled to do so since Buffalo is on a short week.  Perhaps the Jets score a late touchdown to lose, but cover 30-21.

Washington Football Team +1 v. Dallas Cowboys

Dallas is completely discombobulated without Dak Prescott.  The offense is in such trouble, that even Zeke Elliott fumbled the ball twice last week.  Plus, they are on a short week.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Houston Texans

Houston played very well is last week's overtime loss to the Titans, but the Packers are on a whole different level.  Green Bay will be angry coming off a loss, and the 26th ranked scoring defense is the perfect opportunity for Aaron Rodgers and company to rebound.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Even if the Raiders are allowed to start the 4 offensive lineman that were just activated from the Covid Reserve list (pending negative tests today), none of them have practiced all week.  Not good when facing the defense ranked 2nd in total defense, 6th in passing defense and 1st in rushing defense.

New England Patriots -2 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

This is literally just a gut reaction.  Probably because I think Belichick will bounce back after last week's atrocity that was an 18-12 home loss to Denver.

Denver Broncos + 7 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Only because Kansas City is on a short week, and perhaps because Denver has some confidence after winning at New England last week.

Los Angeles Chargers -7 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Probably a good game to miss.

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Seattle needs to shore up the defense if they want to make a serious Super Bowl run, but for now, the 4th ranked passing offense and 5th overall offense, should be enough to remaing undefeated, and cover the spread against a Cardinals team that played on Monday night.

Chicago Bears +6 at Los Angeles Rams

The Chicago Bears will likely lose this game as with James Daniels injured, Aaron Donald will likely have 142 sacks.  But, the Bears defense will likely keep this game close.

 

Bye Week - Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Houston Texans

Houston played very well is last week's overtime loss to the Titans, but the Packers are on a whole different level.  Green Bay will be angry coming off a loss, and the 26th ranked scoring defense is the perfect opportunity for Aaron Rodgers and company to rebound.

I hate taking a road favorite as my Big Bet, but the 3 lines that jumped off the board at me all were road favorites (which scares me in general).  I will select this one because I believe in Aaron Rodgers more than Baker Mayfield, and because Seattle is in a Sunday night prime-time game (where weird things often happen).

Last Week's Record:  7-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  54-35-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $80
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $2450

Picks of the Week

  

My first huge week of the year.  I usually have 2 or 3 of those, to counteract 3 or 4 really bad weeks, with the rest all within a game or so either way.  So, I will take the big week when all 16 teams are playing (no byes), as that makes the winning just so sweet (and gives me a cushion for the inevitable poor showing).

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Jacksonville Jaguars - 3 v. Miami Dolphins

I took the home team on a short week, and no, I am not ashamed.  I will just take the "L".

Chicago Bears +3 at Atlanta Falcons

Everything about this game tells me to take the Falcons.  Their offense is humming despite being 0-2; whereas the Bears have squeaked by Detroit and the New York Giants to be 2-0.  But, the Falcons already suspect defense (31st in total defense, 31st in pass defense, 32nd in scoring defense) lost first round pick and starting corner A. J. Terrell for the game due to a positive Covid-19 test.  At least the game didn't get canceled.

Buffalo Bills -2 v. Los Angeles Rams

I actually think the Rams are the better team, and their offense is 3rd in rushing AND 9th in passing (5th overall).  But, I try not to overthink things and the Rams are a west coast team travelling west and playing in the early game, which I almost always try to bet against.  It is easier to do when Buffalo has the 3rd best total offense and the 5th best total defense.

Cleveland Browns -7 v. Washington Football Team

I have no idea what to think of the Browns.  Seven points seems really high so I should take Washington, but sometimes when that bet looks just too easy, go the other way, especially when Washington has the 31st ranked offense in the league.

Tennessee Titans -3 at Minnesota Vikings

Say what you will about the Vikings, but they are consistent.  They rank 30th in total offese AND total defense.

New England Patriots -6 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Two things at play here:  (1) A west coast team travelling east for the early game; and (2) The Raiders are on a short week having played on Monday night.  That, and this Belichick coached team is remarkably balanced, ranking 8th in passing offense and 9th in rushing offense.

New York Giants +3 v. San Francisco 49ers

Nobody knows what we will be getting from this 49ers team, having lost their entire defensive line and their quarterback last week.  Yes Saquon Barkley is out for the Giants, but they are playing at home and they spread the ball out well against the Bears last week.

Philadelphia Eagles -4 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow has played remarkably well, and has a much higher passer rating than Carson Wentz.  But, he doesn't get to play against his own defense like Wentz does today.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 v. Houston Texans

Stop me if any of this surprises you.  Pittsburgh has the best rush defense, the 7th best pass defense, the 2nd best total defense and 6th best scoring defense.  Watson, lost his best receiver DeAndre Hopkins.

New York Jets +11 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Listen, I know the Jets stink.  Badly.  But 11 1/2 is a big spread consider Indaianapolis' offense is 31st in third down conversions (gotta keep the ball to score).  That being said, it will be hard for the Jets to move the ball against the Colts.  Still, give me that many points and I'll say 28-17 Indy.

Los Angeles Chargers -6 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

Mike Davis is an adequate replacement for an injured Christian McCaffrey, but nobody in this league is McCaffrey.  At least Teddy Bridgewater did't receive a punctured lung from his own training staff.

Arizona Cardinals -5 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

The Lions were steamrolled by Green Bay after DeAndre Swift's heart-breaking, game-ending drop against the Bears in week 1.  Their misery continues against a good-looking Cardinals team that - since they play in the NFC West - needs to win as many of these non-divisional games as possible.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 at Denver Broncos

Because you can't have enough road favorites.  (That is sarcasm, but besides this is only number 2 of those this week).

Seattle Seahawks -5 v. Dallas Cowboys

Seattle is GOOD, offensively.  Their defense is great against the run (2nd in the league), but paltry elsewhere (last in passing defense and total defense, 20th in scoring defense).  So, if Ezekial Elliott can establish any bit of a running game, the could have a chance.  But, they would still have to stop the Seahawks, with the 25th ranked total and scoring defense.  Not going to happen.

Green Bay Packers +3 at New Orleans Saints

Aaron Rodgers is on fire; Drew Brees is not.  Green bay has the best total offense, rushing offense and scoring offens in the NFL (and 4th in passing), with the 10th best total defense.  New Orleans has been struggling on offense and are again without record-setting receiver Michael Thomas.

Kansas City Chiefs +3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Yes Baltimore's defense is amazing so far.  But, Mahomes and his weapons can score against anyone.  And I get points?  Yes please!!!

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers +3 at New Orleans Saints

Aaron Rodgers is on fire; Drew Brees is not.  Green bay has the best total offense, rushing offense and scoring offens in the NFL (and 4th in passing), with the 10th best total defense.  New Orleans has been struggling on offense and are again without record-setting receiver Michael Thomas.

Although there were a couple of easy-looking bets on the board, I feel that Aaron Rodgers is on a mission to prove to the Packers - and the world - that he was not ready for them to draft a quarterback to "replace" him.

Last Week's Record: 11-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  18-13-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $700
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $670

Picks of the Week

Nowhere near the same NFL experience this week as last week, as almost nothing can compare with Lambeau Field, but at least I will be watching the games with a good friend that is a Charger fan; nothing like a good friendly rivalry.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Minnesota Vikings -17 v. Washington Racists
I never liked this line, but short week, Minnesota being home, and Washington being horrible meant I couldn't not take them.  All I needed was for them to not play soft and score a touchdown every now and then.

Chicago Bears -4 v. Los Angeles Chargers
No real reason for this, just hoping the "players only meeting" does something to spark the Bears.

Los Angeles Rams -12 v. Cincinnati Bengals
From Wembley Stadium, so no real home team, and both teams have been in London for quite some time.  Just going with the better team and hope that this plays out.

New Orleans Saints -11 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
Another double digit spread, and it seems like there have been a thousand of them already this year.  Drew Brees is back, and that isn't nothing despite the great stewardship of Teddy Bridgewater in Bress' absence.  David Johnson isn't back, but Chase Edmonds looked good in his replacement role.  I'll take the Saints, I guess.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
Such hit-or-miss teams on both sides of the field today, as we have seen some glimpses of great football from both of these teams, and some glimpses of horrible football from both these teams.  Tampa is 4th in scoring offense, 9th in passing offense and first in rushing defense. Tennessee is 4th in scoring defense and 8th in total defense, so their is some talent.  I'll go Tampa Bay for having some talent on both sides of the ball.

Indianapolis Colts -5 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
Denver is great on defense (3rd in passing defense and 4th in total defense), but is horrible on offense.  I will go with a more rounded Colts team behind Jacoby Brissett who is starting to realize that he really belongs as an NFL starting quarterback (QB Rating 101).  Plus, Denver's offensive line is horrible.

Seattle Seahawks -8 at Atlanta Falcons
I really hate taking a west coast team travelling west for the early games, but Matt Schaub is starting for an Atlanta team that just isn't very good anyway.  Passing offense is the only thing keeping Atlanta in any game (2nd in the NFL), and now their quarterback is likely out - I'll give the points.

Philadelphia Eagles -1 at Buffalo Bills
There is no real reason to select Philly in this game, other than the fact that they have so underachieved, that they need to win this game to possibly salvage their season.

Detroit Lions -6 1/2 v. New York Giants
Detroit better beat the lowly New York Giants or else they fall further down the potential playoff ladder.  Doing it by more than a touchdown could show that they belong in the playoff conversation.

Jacksonville Jaguars -6 1/2 v. New York Jets
It is pre-Halloween weekend, so no telling how many ghosts the Jaguars faithful will have floating around the stadium to try to punish Sam Darnold, but the ghosts of New York Jets past are likely restless after last week's ass-whipping at the hands of the Patriots.  It is possible that the Patriots destroyed the Jets' drive for the entire season.

San Francisco 49ers -5 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers
This San Farncisco defense is outstanding (8th in rushing yards, 3rd in 3rd down conversion percentage, 2nd in scoring defense and total defense, and 1st in passing defense).  Not sure how Carolina scores enough points to stay in this game.

Cleveland Browns +11 1/2 at New England Patriots
Not sure New England has the same motivation as last week, and I am definitely not as sure that Cleveland turns the ball over as much as the Jets did - especially early.  I am not saying that Cleveland wins, just keeps it under the spread.

Oakland Raiders +6 1/2 at Houston Texans
Despite the lopsided score last week, Oakland drove the ball against Green Bay very well, even outgaining the Packers.  This offense is 2nd in 3rd down conversion and 8th in rushing, so there is the opportunity to keep the ball away from the potent DeShaun Watson-led Texans' offense.  I'll take the points.

Green Bay Packers -5 at Kansas City Chiefs
Aaron Rodgers in a prime time game sounds good to me.  I'll take it, especially with no Patrick Mahomes.

Miami Dolphins +14 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Two touchdowns just seems to be a bit much, especially for a Mason Rudolph-led team.  Plus, Ryan Fitzpatrick is the master of the backdoor cover.

Byes:  Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys

Big Bet
Green Bay Packers -5 at Kansas City Chiefs
Aaron Rodgers in a prime time game sounds good to me.  I'll take it, especially with no Patrick Mahomes.
Need I say more?  Also considered, Detroit -6 1/2 v. New York Giants and Jacksonville -6 1/2 v. New York Jets.

Last Two Weeks' Record:  13-15
Last Two Weeks' Big Bet:  2-0
Year-to-Date Record:  49-57
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  4-3
Last Two Weeks' Winnings (Losses):  ($50)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,265)

Picks of the Week

PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS!!!

A time to re-set the mindset from the season (even though I finished with three straight winning weeks (percentage-wise, lost a small amount last week).  Let's just dive right in.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game.  No big bet for $250 this week, because I will also be making bets on the money line and the over/under. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
There is no question that the Raiders are the much better team, except for say, they have to start their third-string rookie quarterback for the first time in the playoffs on the road against the NFL's number 1 ranked defense.

Houston Texans -150 v. Oakland Raiders (Bet $150 to win $100)
I think that it goes without saying that if I am going to pick the Texans to win by more than a field goal, that they would win the game outright.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (37 1/2) UNDER
Brock Osweiler hosting Conner Cook.

Detroit Lions +8 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle's defense has been less than stellar since Earl Thomas has went down, and they struggled to defeat the lowly San Francisco 49ers in week 17 after losing to the Arizona Cardinals at home the previous week.  Matthew Stafford has had a helluva season (more yards, more touchdowns and less interceptions than Russel Wilson).  Since the retirement of Calvin Johnson Stafford has been forced to spread the ball around.  He will miss Theo Riddick as a running back, hell, he will miss a running game, but look for Eric Ebron to make a big play or three with Earl Thomas not in the game.

Detroit Lions +325 at Seattle Seahawks (Bet $100 to win $325)
This isn't the same Seahawks teams as in the past.  Thomas Rawls has only averaged 3.2 yards per rush in filling in for the retired Marshawn Lynch, and Christine Michael is in Green Bay.  I really shouldn't trust the Lions, or Matt Stafford for that matter, but the +325 line is too hard to pass up.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (44) OVER
Somebody has to score in the NFL, and since Houston will beat Oakland 12-6, the points have to be scored in this game.

Miami Dolphins +11 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Miami defeated Pittsburgh earlier in the year, but that was primarily because they knocked out Ben Roethlisberger (enter Landry Jones), and because nobody was prepared for Jay Ajayi.  Well, guess what, people are prepared for Jay Ajayi and they still cannot really stop him.  This game stays pretty close, even though Pittsburgh is hot.  The pass rush of Ndamukong Suh inside and Cameron Wake with Dion Jordan (ha - that's funny) outside will put lots of pressure on Roethlisberger.

Miami Dolphins +475 at Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $100 to win $475)
Now I honestly think Pittsburgh is going to win this game, but Pittsburgh is going off at -650 (other sites have between -600 and -650), which means the payoff opportunity is not there.  So, if there is even chance that Miami could win this game - and obviously there is because it already happened earlier this year - I am going to take that chance.

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (46) OVER
If both teams hit their statistical averages in scoring, and are around the statistical averages in points allowed, then this is right at the number.  I think it will be a bit more high scoring than that, say, 28-24.

Green Bay Packers -5 v. New York Giants
This is honestly the toughest one for me to pick as I don't know how this game is going to go.  I have not thought that the Giants were very good all year.  They cannot run, and in fact, were outrused by the Packers who are on their 37th starting tailback this season - and he is a Tight End.  The Giants are 23rd in passing defense, which should favor the Packers, but safety Landon Collins has 5 interceptions, and is playing like the best safety in football.  That being said, Aaron Rodgers has been on a roll, having won 6 straight.  I will ake the Packers to win more easily than most think.

Green Bay Packers -230 v. New York Giants (Bet $230 to win $100)
For much of the same reason as outlined above.  I really feel that the Packers are going to win this game outright, and at -230, it isn't that bad of a risk to win $100, especially considering that the Giants are only at +190 (some books at +200).  Give me Aaron Rodgers.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (44 1/2) OVER
Green Bay might score 31 by themselves.


Last Week's Record:  9-7
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  132-121-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($35)

Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1,560)

Picks of the Week

We are finally at week 17 of what has been an eventful, interesting, and costly NFL Season.  Since we really have no idea who is really going to be playing this week, I should just take this week off, but after three great weeks in a row, I will try to make it four.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Chicago Bears +6 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
My reverse curse of hopefully ending up with DeShaun Watson seems to be working.  A loss here cements the third pick in the draft, unless the 49ers win their second in a row and then the Bears will pick second!

Cincinnati Bengals +1 v. Baltimore Ravens
I have no idea who is going to show up in this game, but I am taking the Bengals because they are at home, and more importantly, I feel that the Ravens will be flat after missing out on the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 v. Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay still has a shot at the playoffs if:  (1) Tampa wins over Carolina; (2) Detroit beats Green Bay; (3) Tennessee defeats Houston; (4) Indianapolis conquers Jacksonville; (5) Dallas knocks off Philadelphia; (6) San Francisco overcomes Seattle; and (7) New York (Giants) tie Washington.  So you are saying there's a chance.  Well, at least it starts here.

Houston Texans +3 at Tennessee Titans
Tom Savage and Matt Cassell in an epic battle of mediocrity.

Jacksonville Jaguars +6 at Indianapolis Colts
Allen Robinson finally made an appearance last week.  Leave it to the Jaguars to play hard for their coach in the two games AFTER he was fired.

Miami Dolphins +7 1/2 v. New England Patriots
New England still has to win (or lose and have help) to maintain home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  That makes this game one of the more interesting ones on the weekend.  The textbook on how to beat Brady is to put pressure on him from the middle - enter Ndamukong Suh - and hit him/sack him - enter Cameron Wake.

New York Jets + 3 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
The Jets can't even effectively bench their starting quarterback, as Ryan Fitzpatrick is again starting.  Look for him to fling it around the field in search of a new team/contract for next year.  Oh yeah, plus E.J. Manual.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have absolutely nothing to play for, and the story is that Dak Prescott, Tony Romo AND Mark Sanchez will all play today.  Philly wins big.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
No two game winning streak for the Browns.  The Steelers are just too much, even if they play backups.

New Orleans Saints +7 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
This could end up being a shootout.  With just a couple of more wins, Drew Brees would likely be the leading MVP candidate.

Washington Racists -7 1/2 v. New York Giants
The Giants have nothing to play for, whereas the Racists still have the opportunity to make the playoffs with a win and the Detroit/Green Bay game finishing in anything other than a tie.  (There is a scenario with Washington ties, Detroit beats Green Bay and Carolina defeats Tampa, but what are the odds that Washington finishes the season with two ties?)

Denver Broncos -1 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
We do not know what we will be getting with Matt McGloin (or as was told to him at Penn State "Pat My Groin").  We do know that the Broncos will be fired up to win one for Gary Kubiak, who is rumored to be retiring due to health issues.

Los Angeles Rams +7 v. Arizona Cardinals
A likely snoozer, but the Rams defense - behind the stellar play of Aaron Donald - will likely keep this one close.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
The Chiefs can still win the division, and possibly have home-field advantage.  That is something to play for as the Chiefs have one of the best home field crowds in the NFL.

San Francisco 49ers +11 v. Seattle Seahawks
Only because Seattle's mind likely won't be in this game for the entirety.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Detroit Lions
The biggest, most important, most anticipated game of the day occurs in the evening, where the winner makes the playoffs and likely knocks the loser out of the playoffs.  In this type of scenario, would YOU bet against Aaron Rodgers?  I wouldn't.

Big Bet
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
No two game winning streak for the Browns.  The Steelers are just too much, even if they play backups.  It's Cleveland, and the point spread seems small.

Last Week's Record:  10-6
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  123-114-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $490
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1,525)