Picks of the Week - NFL Week 1

WE ARE BACK BABY!!!  The NFL, and NFL gambling!!!  The time when Thursday, Sunday and Monday (and the occasional Friday and Saturday) are consumed by professional football (and bets).  And now is also the time when every NFL fanbase is overly excited about their chances of winning a Super Bowl, and every gambler is overly excited about their chances of winning a mint!  (Sense a theme, here?!)  Anyway, we love this time of year, and you can expect this weekly column to be posted throughout the season.

For those new to WeMakeItRain, I will select each game, placing a $100 wager on all but one game.  That game, the Big Bet, will be for $250, and is obviously the one I think is the biggest guarantee of the week (yeah, right?!).  All picks are against the spread, and their will be no over/unders in this column until the playoffs (when the number of games is fewer).  Anyway, let's get straight to the picks!!!

Dallas Cowboys + 7 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Yes Philadelphia is the defending champion.  Yes, they are the favorites to win again this year.  Yes, they return a whole lot of talent on offense.  But, they lost some talent on defense, especially in the secondary.  And although I expect them to win, I also expect Dallas to play better than a lot of people expect.  Sure they lost Micah Parsons.  But the Dallas offense is going to score a lot of points, especially with the addition of George Pickens who, although nowhere near as productive as he thinks he is good, is very talented and will take a lot of pressure from defensive coverage away from CeeDee Lamb.  Add in Javonte Williams who is only 25 years old, and the Cowboys WILL score.  This game seems like a back-door cover to me.  [Ed. Note - So it wasn't a back-door cover, as Dallas played way better than even I thought, I'll take the W!]

Los Angeles Chargers + 3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs in Sao Paolo, Brazil

This game is being played in the world's 4th most populous metropolitan area, and the largest in the western hemisphere, and the Brazilian city gets a similarly huge quarterback battle between Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.  Add to the fact that this is an early-season divisional game, and we could be looking at a classic tonight.  The Chargers loss of Tackle-extraordinaire Rashawn Slater will hurt theme more-and-more as the season progresses, but for now, everybody is fresh, and I expect both teams to spread the ball around to their entire offenses.  I don't know that Los Angeles will win, but I expect this game to be close.

Atlanta Falcons + 1 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I hate taking road favorites in intra-divisional games, but this game started out as Tamps -2 1/2, which means the early money all floated to Atlanta. So, I might usually entertain going against the early money (lots of reasons for that).  And, although I expect this Tampa team to be explosive offensively, especially with the addition of Emeka Egbuka, the injury to Tristan Wirfs is HUGE.  Tampa is overall more talented and should win the division, I will just take the points at home.

New York Jets + 2 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

OK, I get it.  This seems ridiculous.  Pittsburgh has playoff aspirations and the Jets are, well the Jets.  But, we always have some surprises opening week, and Justin Fields - the Jets quarterback - did lead Pittsburgh to a 4-2 record when Russell Wilson was out last week.  Add to that the fact that Breece Hall might be auditioning for a trade (Chicago Bears, anyone?), and this Jets offense could keep it close.  Plus, the Jets defense has Quinnen Williams on the defensive line and Sauce Gardner at corner, as well as possibly the most underrated defender in the NFL, Jamien Sherwood, at linebacker.  The big question for Pittsburgh is can DK Metcalf turn an aging-superstar - who shall remain nameless - back into his former self?  Gimme the points.  And, I have a big feeling I will regret this pick.

Miami Dolphins +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

This pick is as much about the Colts QB position as anything else.  Daniel Jones being selected over Anthony Richardson as the starter says a lot about the Colts decision to draft Richardson 4th overall than anything else.  Miami, on the other hand, looks flawed, but always plays better with a healthy Tuanigamanuolepola, and he is healthy at least for the start of the season.  Tyreek Hill has to have a better season than last year, and the return of pass rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelyn Phillips can be enormous for a defense that also brought back Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Carolina Panthers +3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

I am bullish on the Panthers, as Bryce Young was exponentially better the last half of last year than prior (imagine that, a player DEVELOPING?!), and they brought in Tetairoa McMillan as a weapon on the outside.  I am equally bearish on the Jaguars, and I feel this might be the year that the Trevor Lawrence (Experience/Experiment?) comes to an end in Jacksonville.  

New York Giants + 5 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Man, those Giants sure had a great pre-season, and they seem so loose with Jameis Winston leading the way.  Hell, even as a backup QB that guy should be the captain.  And Malik Nabors might just be enough weapons for an experienced Russell Wilson at quarterback.  With superstar Dexter Lawrence around to take some pressure off some amazing looking young pass rushers like Brian Burns with Kayvon Thibodeaux and rookie Abdul Carter SHOULD (well Burns isn't exactly young).  Jayden Daniels is amazing, and Deebo Samuel added to a wide receiving corps that already has Terry McLaurin should do well in the long run, but week 1 can be weird, and Daniels may not always have enough time to reach his wide receivers.  Washington still wins, but close.

Arizona Cardinals -6 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

The Saints very well could be fighting for the number 1 draft pick next year.  Six and a half points is a lot on the road, but gotta take some chances.  The question for Arizona is, as always, is Kyler Murray actually any good, or are we as sports fans punished by not getting to see his baseball career?

Cleveland Browns + 5 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

How many times have we been surprised by Joe Flacco keeping a team in a game that they have no business being in?  And although there are no stars, the Browns do have a plethora of running backs and receivers from which to choose.  Expect a Cedric Tillman breakout.  With Myles Garrett being Myles Garret, Mason Graham will have a great opportunity to produce from the interior of the defensive line.  And if Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome can be what scouts think they can, this defense could be legit.  That being said, Cincinnati is the more talented team, especially on offense, and should win this game.  But Cleveland will keep it close, especially at home.  Remember I hate road favorites in intra-divisional games.

New England Patriots -2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Lots of hype with the Raiders and Ashton Jeanty, and with Geno Smith coming over, this team finally has a QB upon whom they can depend.  But, this axiom is important, west coast teams traveling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot fail to cover about 2/3rds of the time.  Drake Maye had a great start to his career, and could really blossom this year, especially with rookie Trayveon Henderson running the ball and Stefon Diggs running routes.  Taking the home team.

San Francisco 49ers -1 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Once again, the dreaded road favorite in an intra-divisional game, but it is only 1 1/2 points - not too much.  Especially since this Seahawks team overall is not very talented.  Sure Jaxon Smith-Njigba is really good, and Kenneth Walker can be - when healthy - but just not on the same level as McCaffrey, George Kittle, Trent Williams, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Kyle Juszczyk and a possible breakout year for Ricky Pearsall.  Gimme the Niners.

Denver Broncos -8 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans 

No non-Titans fan is as excited about Cam Ward's potential as a quarterback in the NFL than I am, excepting perhaps his family, but Tennessee just don't have the same talent Denver does.  Bo Nix looks like a budding superstar, Courtland Sutton is an upper-echelon receiver, and on the other side of the ball Patrick Surtain II and Nik Bonitto are as good as anybody at their positions.  Calvin Ridley will give some relief to Ward, but Denver is the class of this game.

Green Bay Packers -1 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

I, like most everyone else, might just be lowering Detroit's expectations because of the loss of Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson (to the Bears) and Defensive Coordinator Aaron Glenn (to the Jets), more importantly might be the losses of center Frank Ragnow (retirement) and Guard Kevin Zeitler (Tennessee Titans).  But, with lots and lots of talent all over the field (St. Brown, Gibbs, Sewell, Hutchinson, Branch, et. al.) I have a feeling that the Lions will still be in the playoffs.  However, the addition of Micah Parsons may just elevate the Packers from the playoffs to conference championship level.  Being at home, I will take the Packers.

Houston Texans +3 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Yes, I know that people consider the Rams Super Bowl contenders this year, but remember where we thought Houston could be last year, at least before Niko Collins was hurt.  And now he is back.  And I get more than a FG?  Yes, please!

Baltimore Ravens -1 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Let's be honest, I consider the Ravens the class of the AFC this year.  Buffalo is right there with them, and this game is at home, but Jackson fresh off the insult - real or perceived - of Allen winning the MVP last year, and with the addition of Jaire Alexander into the defensive backfield as a corner, to team with safety Kyle Hamilton, this Ravens team might be its best of this iteration.  Gotta start by winning this one on the road, or else they will have to travel on the road in January.

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

You already know what I think about road favorites in intra-divisional games.  Add to that the new faces in the Bears coaching staff - not only Ben Johnson (HC) and Dennis Allen (DC) but also Eric Bienenmy (RB) - and the fact that a healthy Jaylon Johnson (IF he is healthy) is one of the few corners that can limit Justin Jefferson, and this might just be the perfect start for the Bears.  Monday night at home and the possibility of taking out a division foe with an essentially rookie QB?  And I am getting points?  Thank you!

BIG BET:

Cleveland Browns + 5 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

How many times have we been surprised by Joe Flacco keeping a team in a game that they have no business being in?  And although there are no stars, the Browns do have a plethora of running backs and receivers from which to choose.  Expect a Cedric Tillman breakout.  With Myles Garrett being Myles Garret, Mason Graham will have a great opportunity to produce from the interior of the defensive line.  And if Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome can be what scouts think they can, this defense could be legit.  That being said, Cincinnati is the more talented team, especially on offense, and should win this game.  But Cleveland will keep it close, especially at home.  Remember I hate road favorites in intra-divisional games.

I really like taking home teams as my Big Bet, so if I can find one getting points, usually better.  That leaves out Houston and Carolina, since they are both on the road.   I hate giving points on the road, so that leaves out San Francisco, which I also considered.  Denver was another consideration, but 8 1/2 was just TOO many.  So basically, my decision was between Cleveland and Tampa, and Cincinnati has been starting slow out of the gate recently, so, here we are ...  Already hating my Big Bet.

Last Week Record:  0-0

Last Week Big Bet: 0-0

Year-to-Date Record:  0-0

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  0-0

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  $0

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  $0 

Picks of the Week

The NFL is back!!!!  That means that the newest installment of my NFL picks of the week is also back!!!  Yes, this can be humiliating at times, rewarding at others, but for those of you that do or don't like some of my picks, just know it is A LOT more difficult when you force yourself to do EVERY game, and not pick-and-choose the ones you think are the easiest bets.  And with that, I am very much looking forward to this year!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions +4 at Kansas City Chiefs

Super Bowl hangover, an improved Lions team, no Travis Kelce, and an unknown wide receiver corps.  I will take the points.

Baltimore Ravens -9 1/2 v. Houston Texans

This Texans team was actually playing tough last year under Lovie Smith, even though they were not very good.  Demeco Ryans has passion, but a rookie quarterback.  Lots of points for week 1, but Lamar Jackson might feel he has something to prove this year.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The last 7 times a quarterback has been taken number 1 overall in the draft, he has lost in  his debut.  That streak should stay alive after this game.

Cleveland Browns +2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Do I honestly think the Bengals will win?  Yes.  Under ordinary circumstances would I have picked the Bengals?  Yes.  Prior to week 1 do we actually know anything about these teams?  No.  That is why I will take the points for a home team playing a division rival - a known betting rule.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 v. San Francisco 49ers

In a refrain that you will read often in this space, west coast team travelling to the east coast and playing in the 1:00 slot fail to cover over 2/3rds of the time.

Washington Commanders -7 v. Arizona Cardinals

There is no chance that the Cardinals are good this year, right?  Josh Dobbs at QB?  Seriously?

Minnesota Vikings -4 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Minnesota with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison can be very explosive, with or without Dalvin Cook.

Jacksonville Jaguars -4 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis has (1) a rookie quarterback; that (2) wasn't very good in college; with (3) no real stud receivers; and (4) playing without its star running back.

Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

I don' think we know anything about how these two teams are going to be.  So, I'll take the points.

Chicago Bears -1 v. Green Bay Packers

No Aaron Rodgers and now no Christian Watson for Jordan Love.  Aaron Jones may gain a ton of yards, but the newly-explosive Bears offense takes over the game.

Seattle Seahawks -5 v. Los Angeles Rams

Could the Rams be in the running for Caleb Williams?

Las Vegas Raiders +3 at Denver Broncos

Does Denver actually have a healthy receiver on its roster?  That is all I could come up with because this is purely speculation.  

Miami Dolphins +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

This Miami offense could be unstoppable, and they tried to upgrade their defense.  Mike McDaniel is a rising star in this league.  This might be the most fun game to watch of the weekend.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at New England Patriots

The Patriots cut Matt Carrol and re-signed Bailey Zappe.  This means the best Patriots quarterback will be in the stands as the team honors Tom Brady.

New York Giants + 3 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

I really want to select Dallas here, but I hate giving up points on the road in a divisional matchup.  Dak turns the ball over to keep this really close 27-24 Dallas.

New York Jets +2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Again, I hate giving up pints on the road in in intra-divisional matchup.  Only reason I am picking the Jets.

Big Bet:

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at New England Patriots

I was looking for a home team to select for my big bet, preferably receiving points or giving very few, but this looks too enticing to pass up.  Eagles roll!

Last Week's Record:  0-0

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0

Last Week's Record:  0-0

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0

Year-to-Date Record:  0-0

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):

Picks of the Week

The NFL is back!!!!  That means that the newest installment of my NFL picks of the week is also back!!!  Yes, this can be humiliating at times, rewarding at others, but for those of you that do or don't like some of my picks, just know it is A LOT more difficult when you force yourself to do EVERY game, and not pick-and-choose the ones you think are the easiest bets.  And with that, I am very much looking forward to this year!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams +2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

A very good home team getting points in the opening weekend?  I'll take them.  We saw how that turned out!  Ugh.

Chicago Bears +6 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

This is not a homer bet.  The Bears don't look to be a very good team by most prognostications, but do we really know what The 49ers have in Trey Lance?  No.  Do we know what the Bears have in Justin Fields?  Also know.  I'll take the almost touchdown.

Detroit Lions +5 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I have changed my mind many times on this game.  I think that Jalen Hurts has a chance to be VERY good, and now the Eagles have added A.J. Brown as a weapon on the outside.  But I keep remembering just how tough Detroit has played damn near everyone since Dan Campbell arrived as head coach, and they are at home.  Philadelphia may win, but Detroit keeps it close.

Houston Texans +7 v. Indianapolis Colts

Admittedly this is just a chance to continue the run of selecting home underdogs.  Colts still win, but this game has backdoor cover all over it.

Celveland Browns pick 'em Carolina Panthers

So, some road teams are going to win, right?  Might as well pick the one that doesn't have to give up points!  (And the one that has Nick Chubb AND Kareem Hunt!)  Baker will have a chip on his shoulder, but we won't really iknow what we are getting from Christian McCaffrey coming off his injury, and how Baker is going to gel with the receivers.

Washington Commanders -3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Damn it feels good to type that.  Even if it wasn't perhaps the best choice.  It beats having to type "Football Team" as well as "Racists" as in the past.  For that reason alone, and the fact that even with the Chase Young injury Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat make up the fiercest defensive line - meaning the entire line - in the NFL.

New England Patriots +3 at Miami Dolphins

Do I believe that the Dolphins are much improved, especially with the addition of Tyreek Hill?  Yes I do.  Do I also believe that Tuaniggamanuolepola Tagovailoa will also be improved with the confidence of the team and being the undisputed started?  Yes, I do.  Do I believe that these are the type of circumstances where Bill Belichick loves to screw with opposing teams, opposing coaches' minds, opposing fans, and also the betting lines?  Definitely.

Pittsburgh Steelers +7 at Cincinnati Bengals

Yes, Cincinnati is coming off of a phenomenal playoff run.  Yes, the seem to have improved their number 1 weakness from last year, the offensive line.  But, seems doesn't block T.J. Watt, and Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati both times they played last year.  AND, it looks like Pittsburgh will have a more-than-competent quarterback this year.  (Did I just say that about Mitchell Trubisky?)

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 at New York Jets

I cannot pick all of the home underdogs, right?  On paper Lamar Jackson is just so much better than the New York Jets.  I mean, it isn't like the Ravens secretary is full of Zach Wilson's mom's friends!  Only question is where is Jackson's mindset after the team and Jackson could not come to terms on an extension.  I think Jackson will be out to prove that he is worth as much as any quarterback in the league.  Think about it, he is the only NFL MVP from the QB position to have won the award before he turned 23.

Atlanta Falcons + 5 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

This bet seems too easy.  New Orleans all the way.  I hate this bet.  I cannot believe that I am putting it on "paper."  But, I have this feeling we might get to see Desmond Ridder, and Jameis Winston could always thrown 4 or 5 picks.  (He could also throw 4 or 5 interceptions too.)  Home divisional rival getting points.  God do I hate this pick.

Kansas City Chiefs -6 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Patrick Mahomes is undefeated in opening games, having thrown 13 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.  That continues today.  Arizona strengthened its WR corps by adding Marquise Brown, but DeAndre Hopkins is suspended and Rondale Moore is out.  Zach Ertz is also questionable.  Juju Smith-Schuster has an amazing game.

Tennessee Titans -5 1/2 v. New York Giants

Lots of bets against the Giants from me unless and until Saquon Barkley proves he can play a full complement of plays each-and-every game at the original Saquon Barkley level.

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

What is a Romeo Doubs?  Still, I make this pick with trepidation as you can never be confident betting against Aaron Rodgers.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

How many sacks can Joey Bosa earn playing opposite Khalil Mack?  Robert Quinn had 18 1/2 last year.  Chargers are my early pick to win the AFC.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

I have changed this pick 3 or 4 times.  I don't like the line.  I don't like trying to figure out how Tampa is going to be with apossibly still ailing Chris Godwin and an aging Julio Jones.  I do love the situation Cameron Brate finds himself in, though.  Six or 7 catches for him today!

Denver Broncos -6 1/2 at Seattle Seawhawks

Big number for a divisional rival - wait - they haven't been rivals for a long time.  And Seattle looks like they are going to stink!!!  I have no qualms about picking this road favorite.

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers +7 at Cincinnati Bengals

So, when selecting a big bet, I always try to find a home team, and either getting points or giving away a small number.  Lots of home teams getting points this week.  But, I found a game getting points on the road, but with a big number that stands out to me.  An intra-divisional rivalry in which the number is inflated because of Cincinnati's playoff run last year.  (They were not the best team in the AFC - they just got hot at the right time.)  And although Cincinnati may have improved, it looks like Pittsburgh did as well.  Watch for George Pickens' to have his coming-out party, if not this week, then soon!!!

Last Week's Record:  6-10

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Last Week's Record:  0-0

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0

Year-to-Date Record:  0-0

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):

Picks of the Week

We are back to the beginning of a new football season!!!  Hooray!!!  And, if yesterday's college games are any indication, we don't know anything.  That is often true about the first few weeks of any season, as we really don't know how new players - rookies or otherwise - will fare on their new teams, how new coaches and coaching staffs will gel with their players, or how critical players losses will affect an established team.  The good thing is, neither do the actuaries that set the betting lines.  Key point - the first 3 weeks or so are the best time to take advantage.  Let's hope we can do that!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

So, my undefeated season will bnot come to fruition.  I guess the rumors of Dak's shoulder still causing him problems was overrated.  Still, I had Tampa Bay in my survivor pool, so I'll take it.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles 

Both teams project to be dismal this year.  I initially thought about taking the points, but I will settle for the home team and hope they actually use their running back, Mike Davis.

Carolina Panthers -3 1/2 v. New York Jets

Rookie quarterback starting game 1 versus the man he replaced.  Panthers have more weapons.

Washington Football Team -2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

In Fitzy I trust.  But seriously, the reason is the old adage, never bet on the west coast team travelling east and playing the early game.  Historically the home east coast team in this situation covers 2/3 of the time.  Also, Washington has the best defensive line in the league.

Detroit Lions +8 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

I hate this pick.  I hate it, I hate it, I hate.  But, as I stated in the preamble, we don't know anything yet about this season, so I will stick the the betting rule that led me to select Washington earlier.

Buffalo Bills -6 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh has 5 new offensive lineman.  Bills rookie Gregory Rousseau could have 2 or 3 sacks this game.  Plus, Pittsburgh couldn't get pressure on Buffalo last year, and they are essentially the same team.

Seattle Seahawks -3 at Indianapolis Colts

Seattle is the one west coast team that thrives covering the spread when playing the early game on the east coast (and yes, Indianapolis is in the eastern time zone).  I don't like giving up the points here, but the Colts don't really know how to play with Carson Wentz yet, either.

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Imagine what Joe Burrow could have done if Cincinnati had drafted him Penei Sewell to protect him.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Houston Texans

Tyrod Taylor often surprises, but this Texans team is hideous.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Arizona Cardinals

J.J. Watt is not the type of defensive upgrade that would lead a team to stopping Derrick Henry.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Nobody knows what is going to happen here with these 2 Alabama quarterbacks, so I will take the points.

Denver Broncos -3 at New York Giants

I just love rooting for Teddy Two Gloves.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at New Orleans

Has any player ever gone on a revenge tour against their own team?  If not, well now here it is.  Aaron Rodgers' Revenge Tour against the Green Bay Packers.  Starts today.

Cleveland Browns +5 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City's revamped offensive line versus Cleveland's rushers.  I'll take the points, even though I think Kansas City wins.

Los Angeles Rams -8 v. Chicago Bears

With Justin Fields in the game, I might take 8.  Not with Andy Dalton.  Let's see if Matt Stafford likes all of his shiny new toys on offense.

Las Vegas Raiders +4 v. Baltomore Ravens

Getting points at home in a big prime time game?  Yes, please.  Especially since we don't exactly know how the Ravens running back situation is going to play out, especially since Latavious Murray likely isn't in game shape yet.

  

Big Bet

Buffalo Bills -6 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh has 5 new offensive lineman.  Bills rookie Gregory Rousseau could have 2 or 3 sacks this game.  Plus, Pittsburgh couldn't get pressure on Buffalo last year, and they are essentially the same team.

Josh Allen's campaign to finish third in the MVP voting begins today.

Last Week's Record:  0-0

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0
Year-to-Date Record:  0-0

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): 

Picks of the Week

HOORAY! The NFL is officially back with its first full slate of games, and nobody is happier than I am.  Since we have no pre-season, little or no fans, and everything is focused on Covid, I feel that I am in a perfect position to start the season with a bang.  Whether that is good or bad, who knows.  We shall see.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans + 9 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
No way Texans win this game, but if they had even tried to throw deep at least 2 or 3 times, this game is under 10.

Chicago Bears + 2 1/2 at Detroit Lions

We don't know if we are getting 2018 Mitchell Trubisky or 2019 Mitchell Trubisky, but this Bears defense, when fully healthy, can really do some things.  Robert Quinn isn't playing yet, but that shouldn't matter against a basically one-dimensional Lions offense that has to figure out what it is doing with its running game.  It may come to fruition this year (Peterson, Swift and Johnson), but it is going to take some time until they come up with a proper rotation. 

Atlanta Falcons +2 v. Seattle Seahawks

So, the fans issue is going to take a way from a lot of teams' home-field advantages.  However, until I see how teams settle in this season, I am still not going to be on a west coast team travelling east and playing the early game.  The travel is still the problem.  I think Seattle is going to be really good this year, but going to stick with the tried-and-true betting rules for this one.

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Virtually the entire secondary of the Browns is going to miss this game, which means that Jackson will be able to throw, as well as run.  Cleveland's offense should not be as bad as last year, but I don't know if they can stop Baltimore enough to stay in this one.

New York Jets + 6 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
None of us know what we are getting with Sam Darnold in this one, and we do not know if Adam Gase is actually going to use Le'Veon Bell properly, but Darnold looked good at the end of last season and Gase has to know he needs Bell.  Stefon Diggs makes minimal difference in this game.

Carolina Panthers +3 v. Las Vegas Raiders

I can't believe I just typed "Las Vegas Raiders", but that excites me.  Carolina might have some growing pains, but Teddy Bridgewater is a solid, experienced professional.  So, I will bet against a west coast team travelling west and playing in the early game again, especially when giving up points, just like Seattle.

Indianapolis Colts -7 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Road intra-divisional favorites are tough to bet, but not when playing Jacksonville after the Jaguars have completely dismantled its teams.  Philip Rivers will be rejuvenated this year, with a running game and a great offensive line led by Quinten Nelson (and yes I just highlighted an offensive lineman).

Green Bay Packers +2 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

Is Dalvin Cook ready to go?  Does Aaron Rodgers have something to prove?  Do we see Jordan Love?  Who knows?  Give me the points.

Miami Dolphins +7 at New England Patriots
Bill Belichick blah, blah, blah.  Tom Brady is gone.  But, more importantly, the Patriots' entire defense opted out of this season.  Fitzpatrick slings enough to keep this one close.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 1/2 at Washington Football Team
So, I will not refer to the Washington Football Team as the Washington Racists this year, and those longtime blog readers know I have been doing that for a long time, not just the last year or two.  This is not a bandwagon issue.  Anyway, can Dwayne Haskins make the jump?  Can the Eagles run without Miles Sanders?  Can Carson Wentz continue to lead this team with a flawed roster?  Yes, at least this week.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Cincinnati Bengals

So, the Bengals have the late afternoon session, nullifying the west coast travelling of the Chargers.  The Chargers will miss Philip Rivers, but they have playmakers all over the field.  Joe Burrow has a ton o confidence, and some skill position talent (Joe Mixon and eventually A.J. Green).  But, I look for the Chargers linebackers with Denzell Perry man flanked by Kyzir White and Kenneth Murray to make a lot of plays on Burrow and the Bengals.

New Orleans Saints -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Everyone is going to talk/write about Brady, Fournette, Gronkowski and all of the new players.  It is going to take some time for them to gel.  Not so for Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas.

Arizona Cardinals +7 at San Francisco 49ers

A Super Bowl hangover for the 49ers, I feel.  And, a breakout MVP-caliber season for Kyler Murray with Kenyan Drake and Larry Fitzgerald all being joined by DeAndre Hopkins.

Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Mike McCarthy has to make a lot of difference over Jason Garrett, right?

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 at New York Giants
TJ Watt, Bud Dupree, Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt should be in Daniel Jones' face all night.  Plus, Ben Roethlisberger is back.

Denver Broncos +3 v. Tennesee Titans

Just a gut feeling that Drew Lock is going to have a really good season, and Melvin Gordon is going to have a lot of running room with Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy opening things up for him.  Tennessee returns Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry,  but will be missing Adoree Jackson and Vic Beasley, whil Von Miller is out for the season for the Broncos.

Big Bet

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Virtually the entire secondary of the Browns is going to miss this game, which means that Jackson will be able to throw, as well as run.  Cleveland's offense should not be as bad as last year, but I don't know if they can stop Baltimore enough to stay in this one.

Baltimore's defense should be improved (really, can that happen?) with the additions of rookie inside linebacker Patrick Queen, drafted in the first round from LSU, and perennial Pro-Bowler and professional defensive menace Calais Campbell coming over from Jacksonville.

Last Week's Record: 0-0
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0
Year-to-Date Record:  0-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): 

Picks of the Week

HOORAY! The NFL is officially back with its first full slate of games, and nobody is happier than I am.  Since I watched absolutely zero of the pre-season, other than all the news reports of the Antonio Brown drama, I feel that I am in a perfect position to start the season with a bang.  Whether that is good or bad, who knows.  We shall see.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers +3 at Chicago Bears
This happened Thursday, but I told my friends my pick before game time. Aaron Rodgers just has the bears number.

Carolina Panthers +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
West coast teams travelling west rarely cover the spread when they play the early games.  Add to that, it is also hard to cover as a road favorite.  I imagine that most people I know will take the Rams here, but I will take the points.

Cleveland Browns -5 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
This pick is not about me coronating the Browns too early after "winning the offseason".  This is more about me thinking that Tennessee is going to be really bad this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars +4 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Jacksonville should still have a great defense, and although Kansas City's offense seemed to be unstoppable last year, can a team with a Super Bowl-winning quarterback at least keep possession long enough with Leonard Fournette to keep this game close?  I say yes.

Miami Dolphins +7 v. Baltimore Ravens
Don't get me wrong, the Dolphins are going to be horrible this year. But, without seeing how Baltimore is going to play, I don't like them favored by 7 on the road.  Especially when Fitzpatrick can throw a 43 yard touchdown pass with 41 seconds left to back-door cover.

Atlanta Falcons +4 at Minnesota Vikings
I have to pick some road teams, right?  I have no idea where either of these teams are going to end up.  I feel like they could both either wind up in the playoffs, or both disappoint terribly.  So, give me the points.

New York Jets -3 v. Buffalo Bills
Le'Veon Bell should be fresh right.

Washington Racitsts +10 at Philadelphia Eagles
Over the season, the Eagles should easily out-distance the Racists.  That being said, ten points is a lot of points in an intra-divisional game.

Los Angeles Chargers -7 v. Indianapolis Colts
Which team went through the most turmoil during the preseason?  I am going to say the Colts, and pick the Chargers.

Seattle Seahawks -9 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Count the Bengals be looking for Tagavailoa to replace Andy Dalton?

Detroit Lions -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
There has to be one game where I go against the rules and take a visiting favorite, right?

New York Giants +7 at Dallas Cowboys
Saquon Barkley controls the ball to help keep this close.  Every Cowboys fan is hoping Zeke is ready to play.  Is he?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 v. San Francisco 49ers
I have no idea why I think this.

New England Patriots -6 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Big Ben has never won in Foxboro.

New Orleans Saints -7 v. Houston Texans
New Orleans seems to thrive on big prime time games.  Can J.J. Watt be as effective without Jadeveon Clowney on the other side?

Denver Broncos -2 at Oakland Raiders 
Another road favorite, in an intradivisional game.  I don't like it, but I also don't like this Raiders squad.

Big Bet
New England Patriots -6 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Big Ben has never won in Foxboro.  I chalk this pick up to Belichick and Brady, more than anything else, but also a healthy helping of Sony Michel.

Last Week's Record: 0-0
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0
Year-to-Date Record:  0-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): 

Picks of the Week

Hooray, the NFL is back.  For those of you not boycotting, welcome back to WeMakeItRain's weekly picks.  I am hoping to do much better this year, as last year was really bad.  Honestly, the Super Bowl saved me, correctly picking the winner against the spread (Philly + 4 1/2 - Big Bet), the money line (Philly + 170) and the under on Pink's national anthem (2:00).  Only the final score 41-33 got me as I took the under (49).  Anyways, the Super Bowl got me an additional $410, leaving my losses for the year at $670.  Here's to a new year.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Atlanta Falcons pick 'em over Philadelphia Eagles
Only because of the Super Bowl hangover.  These two teams are really close, and it would take a dumb coaching mistake like going for it on fourth down on the first drive to keep Atlanta from winning.  Oh ....

Buffalo Bills +7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
This is not last year's Buffalo playoff team, as Nathan Peterman takes the helm instead of Tyrod Taylor.  In addition, the Ravens defense should be really good.  But, I just don't know if the Ravens can score enough to be favored over a touchdown.

Cleveland Browns +3 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
No, this isn't a bet because I am enamored with the Browns because of their appearance on some HBO show, like many of you who have them as the favorite bet on the board to win the AFC North.  This is because Cleveland usually plays Pittsburgh close, is at home, and the Steelers might be in a bit of disarray over Le'Veon Bell holding out.  Close game, either way.  I'll take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 at Indianapolis Colts
Andy Dalton is Andy Dalton, which should be concerning for the Bengals.  But, we don't know what we have with Andrew Luck, and we certainly do not have an established rusher in Indianapolis either.  Cincinnati to win outright.

Miami Dolphins pick 'em over Tennessee Titans
I honestly don't know where to go here.  Young defense for the Dolphins, and losing their "best" receiver in Jarvis Landry.  Somehow I think this makes the offense more harmonious, and gives all the Ryan Tannehill haters another week to eat crow - at least until next week.  I still don't think we know what we have in Marcos Mariota, and he is going to have to find a receiver that he feels comfortable with.  So, Dolphins.

Minnesota Vikings -6 v. San Francisco 49ers
Only because we are not supposed to read a lot into preseason.  Kirk Cousins did not look particularly well, and that scares me, and it should the Vikings fans.  But, on the bright side, Dalvin Cook is back.  San Francisco travelling east and playing early (although not quite to the Eastern time zone) cannot help.  Without an establishes rusher yet to help Garappolo could hurt the 49ers offense.  But, look for Marquise Goodwin to have a big year at Wide Receiver.

Houston Texans +6 1/2 at New England Patriots
If DeShaun Watson is fully healthy, they could win this game outright.  If partly healthy, he is mobile enough to make life hell for the New England defense and keep this close.  Tom Brady is Tom Brady, so this very well could be the game of the day, but I remember that Blake Bortles ran on this New England defense in the playoffs - and Bortles is not DeShaun Watson.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 at New Orleans Saints
I am not ready to give up double digit points in any bet at this stage of the season.  New Orleans defense was much improved last year, and their offense is, well, their offense.  But 10 points in a divisional matchup is a lot. Let's say Ryan Fitzpatrick - starting for the suspended Jameis Winston - throws a late touchdown to lose by 9.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at New York Giants
I usually hate road favorites, but this Jaguars defense is LOADED.  Their offense is suspect, but the Giants were really bad last year.  Some improvement on the offensive line is expected with Nate Solder coming over in free agency and the drafting of Will Hernandez, but we will have to see about that.  I imagine Saquon Barkley is going to get a lot of touches, and see a lot of Telvin Smith.

Kansas City Chiefs + 3 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers
Two teams with lots of expectations, but also lots of question marks.  Will Kansas City's offense be as dynamic behind Patrick Mahomes?  Has Los Angeles shaken the injury bug to key players?  Is Phillip Rivers going to play forever?  I'll take the points, since I think Kansas City can still score in bunches, and make it hard for the Chargers to run away with this one.

Arizona Cardinals -2 v. Washington Racists
Arizona's defense is stout, and David Johnson is back.  That alone should keep Arizona ahead of Washington.  Adrian Peterson has been  named the starting running back in Washington, and as great as he has been in his career (when healthy), we don't exactly know what he has left in the tank.  Alex Smith should be a steadying had for Washington for the year, but not today.

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Dallas Cowboys
Carolina is one of those teams that could be playoff bound, or go 6-10.  We really don't know.  Cam Newton has all the talent in the world, but doesn't always make the right decisions.  Dallas - a team that relies on its stellar offensive line play - is going to be hurt by Travis Frederick's absence due to Guillaume-Barre Syndrome, and we don't know who on the Cowboys will catch a pass.  I'll take Carolina at home.

Denver Broncos -3 v. Seattle Seahawks
Case Keenum better be the answer for this Broncos team, as their window could be closing.  Von Miller is one of the 4 or 5 best defensive players in the league, and rookie Royce Freeman could be the solidfying factor in the backfield.  Seattle might be in for a long season.  Look for Shaquem Griffin to make his first start, and Sebastian Janikowski to kick for a non-Raider team for the first time since 1999 (Florida State).

Chicago Bears +7 at Green Bay Packers
The Packers may still win this game, but with a revamped offense (scheme and players) and a potentially top-5 defense, the Bears are coming up in the NFC North.  Seven points just seems like a lot even for Aaron Rodgers.  I expect a big season from Jimmy Graham, as Rodgers has given lesser tight ends great seasons.

New York Jets +7 at Detroit Lions
The Jets are stating the rookie Sam Darnold in game 1, and that will probably lead to a few mistakes.  But, perhaps, could give the Jets some hope.  I would love nothing more than the Jets fans to have hope for a better future that never comes!  I suspect Detroit will win this game, but maybe by 6.

Los Angeles Rams -4 at Oakland Raiders
The Rams have loads of talent on both sides of the football, and the Raiders just traded their best player, and have a coach who has been out of the locker room for 10 years.

Big Bet
Los Angeles Rams -4 at Oakland Raiders
The Rams have loads of talent on both sides of the football, and the Raiders just traded their best player, and have a coach who has been out of the locker room for 10 years.  That is really all I have to say here.

Last Week's Record:

Last Week's Big Bet:
Year-to-Date Record:
Big Bet Year-to-Date:
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: 

Picks of the Week

It's here.  The NFL season is finally here.  (Yes, I am aware that there was a game on Thursday evening).  Last year was looking as if it was going to be horrible, but a late season surge, topped off with a great playoff run pushed my record to 154-133-5 on the season (2-2 for the Super Bowl).  However, due to my horrendous he big bet guarantees, I finished in the hole $475.  Considering I was done $1555 entering week 17, I consider myself on a winning streak.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Kansas City Chiefs + 8 1/2 at New England Patriots
Yes, I did make this pick before kickoff of the Thursday night game.  Long-time reader Brent Bellinger of Austin, Texas was checking in with me on Thursday to hope that Irma would not be interfering with the picks, and I wrote to him - on facebook no less - my pick.  It is out in the ether for all the world to see.  Twenty-plus people are gone from last year's Super Bowl winning team and this Chiefs team is fast - on both sides of the ball.

Atlanta Falcons - 6 1/2 at Chicago Bears
Well, I cannot cheer for Bears losses in hopes of drafting DeShaun Watson like last year, but their defense should be much improved.  Not enough to slow down the Falcons, however.  Look for Atlanta to forego the usual Super Bowl losing hangover.  With a pricey, shiny new stadium, this seems like a completely new year for them.  Matt Ryan and Vic Beasley could both again compete for offensive and defensive players of the year, respectively.  I generally don't like the road favorite, and I will secretly cheer if I am wrong, but I feel pretty safe with this pick.

Buffalo Bills - 7 1/2 v. New York Jets
This game is awful to pick, and even worse to watch.  My reasoning for picking the Bills is that the Jets may not score 7 1/2 points all season.  At least Buffalo has LeSean McCoy.  Plus, is it possible to trust Nathan Peterman more than all of the Jets' QBs combined?

Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati added Joe Mixon to an already crowded backfield, but with his talent, the Bengals won't be able to keep him off the field for too long.  This will open up things for the passing game and A.J. Green will be the big recipient of Mixon's play.  Does anyone even know a player on Baltimore with Flacco hurt?  And he is hurt, whether he plays or not.  Plus, Vontaze Burfict cannot take a bad personal foul penalty.

Cleveland Browns +9 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Yes, I know that this goes against conventional wisdom, and no, I don't think they will win outright.  But, the Browns are improved, with 2 new interior lineman (J.C. Tretter and Kevin Zeitler) now joining future Hall-of-Famer Joe Thomas on the offensive line.  They could sustain some drives, take time of the clock, and score a few points.  Pittsburgh wins by 7.1

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
Beware the game that looks too easy.  If you see one like that, pick the other team.  Arizona lost a lot on defense, including Calais Campbell, and although talented on offense, will give up a lot more points that last year.  Detroit, behind Matthew Stafford, can score from anywhere on the field at any time (although not all the time - they aren't that talented).  I like this game to be close at least, with Detroit possibly winning outright.

Houston Texans -5 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston got a lot better simply by getting rid of Brock Osweiler.  The defense should still be stout, and DeAndre Hopkins might have a QB that can throw him something farther than a 5 yard hook.  Jacksonville has been accumulating tons of talent on the defensive side of the ball, but needs to solve its problems at QB and RB.  They think they have one problem fixed with Fournette.  The other, not so much.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Oakland Raiders
My sources tell me that the majority of bets in Vegas for this game are on the Raiders, but, the majority of the bets on account (meaning those that run a tab in Vegas) is for the Titans.  Always go with the smart money over the everyday bettors.  Even if I lose this one, that rule will make you a lot more money than not.Since the Raiders have problems on defense (other than Khalil Mack, of course), and since Marcus Mariota has the best receivers he has ever had (which isn't saying much), I will go with Tennessee in a bit of a shootout.

Philadelphia Eagles -1 at Washington Racists
So, the Eagles are a road favorite, but with only giving 1 point, we really aren't giving up too much.  Carson Wentz threw the second most passes in the NFL in the second half of last season, and that was before Alshon Jeffrey joined the team.  If the Eagles can balance things a bit on offensive, they should beat the Washington Racists who will have to live with Kirk Cousins throwing 40+ times a game until they find an established running back.

L.A. Rams -4 v. Indianapolis Colts
This is another game that I have no idea what to do with.  Scott Tolzein?  Seriously?  They should have at least given Steven Morris a chance.  I expect a lot of Todd Gurley and Frank Gore, so this will be an old-school bruising NFL game.  I like the Rams defense in this type of game, even without Aaron Donald.

Seattle Seahawks +3 at Green Bay Packers
We shall see who eventually runs the ball for Seattle, but Russell Wilson is always steadily good.  Although Aaron Rodgers is spectacular, but the Seahawks made the deal of the offseason (actually not technically the offseason), when they traded for Sheldon Richardson.  Putting that tank in the middle of the defensive line only makes the pass rush of Michael Bennet, Cliff Avril and Frank Clark that much more lethal.  With Richardson and Jarran Reed in the middle, the Packers might not gain any yards rushing.

Carolina Panthers -5 at San Francisco 49ers
Another game in which I feel forced to take the road favorite.  I expect a big bounce back year from Cam Newton, especially given his new toy - Christian McCaffrey - who is just as lethal receiving as he is running the ball.  The Panthers defense will again be strong, especially in this game going against the likes of Brian Hoyer, or perhaps Matt Barkley.

Dallas Cowboys -4 v. New York Giants
Ezekial Elliott will get to play in this divisional game giving the Giants wanderlust about what a real running back can do.

New Orleans Saints +3 at Minnesota Vikings
I know that the Vikings are all happy with their new running back, Dalvin Cook (who I think is going to be great - by the way), but this win goes to the Vikings' former running back Adrian Peterson; well more accurately to Drew Brees, who even in a down year led the NFL in completed passes, passing attempts and passing yards in 2016.  Sam Bradford did lead the NFL in completion percentage, and most 100 play drives.

Los Angeles Chargers +3 at Denver Broncos
I feel like I have seen this game recently (an early season Monday Night Football upset by the Chargers over the Broncos), and I picked the then San Diego Chargers in that game as well - successfully even.  Philip Rivers is still Philip Rivers, and Keenan Allen returns.  Denver will still have a phenomenal defense, but they re-signed Brock Osweiler.  WHO WAS CUT BY THE BROWNS!!!

Hurricane Irma giving points to Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Miami Dolphins
This is not a bad joke, or me making fun of those in the middle of a natural disaster.  This is real, very real.  For those that don't know me, I am in the middle of the northeast quadrant of the storm as we speak, and a tornado warning just ended 17 minutes ago.  Vegas wouldn't take this bet, but Irma won.

Big Bet

Carolina Panthers -5 at San Francisco 49ers
I normally want to select a team that is either at home, or receiving points for my big bet.  However, San Francisco looks to be soooooooo unbelievably bad this year, I think I have to start the season going against them as often as possible.

Last Week's Record:  0-0
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0
Year-to-Date Record:  0-0-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $

Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  $

Picks of the Week

It is back.  The NFL is back.  I know, it started Thursday, but I lost that pick so nobody can accuse me of cheating.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Carolina Panthers -3 at Denver Brocncos

The Panthers want to prove themselves I said.  Trevor Siemian is untested, I told myself.  What I should have said was, "Don't take road favorites".

Chicago Bears +6 at Houston Texans
No, this is not a homer pick.  I just don't think that Brock Osweiler is ready to lead a team to a 7 point victory when J.J. Watt is hampered by injuries and likely not 100%.  The Bears signing of Josh Sitton from the Packers was huge.

Tampa Bay +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
This is the year of the Winston, as Jameis starts strong, opening up a punishing fourth quarter rushing game by Doug Martin.  Atlanta - once again - is all flash an no substance.

Buffalo Bills +3 at Baltimore Ravens
Tyrod Taylor is bette than most people think, and I think the Ravens will be battling for the number 1 pick this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 4 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers
Perhaps I learned my lesson about selecting road favorites.  I think the Jaguars look like they are going to good this year, in essence getting two first round picks with Dante Fowler returning to action.  Chris Ivory will provide some punishing runs.

Kansas City Chiefs -5 1/2 v. San Diego Chargers

Honestly, I have no idea what we have in the Chargers.  With the Chiefs, we have an incredible defense and a steady Alex Smith.

Oakland Raiders +1 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Since New Orleans is in the central time zone, I don't have to worry about the west coast team playing the early game in the east coast theory, so I can take points and bet on the up-and-coming Raiders offense.  I think Amari Cooper has a big game torching the Saints secondary.

New York Jets +2 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Ryan Fitzpatrick proves he should have been the glimmer in the Jets' management eyes the entire time.  Plus, home team getting points.  The Bengals are down to only A.J. Green as returning receivers, so it may take a few games for the offense to start gelling.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

I almost went the other way with this one, but it may be a few weeks too early to start picking them to cover, as they kept all 14 of their draft picks on the roster.  Not sold on Philadelphia either, but they may just be happy that Chip Kelly is gone.

Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

Ladies and gentlemen, Shaun Hill is getting 2 1/2 points.  SHAUN HILL?!

Miami Dolphins +10 at Seattle Seahawks

Way too early in the season to start giving double digit spreads.  If Arian Foster can still run, this should be a close loss for the Dolphins.

New York Giants pick 'em at Dallas Cowboys

Dallas was -22 in turnover margin last year (last in the NFL) and now they are starting a rookie quarterback.  Although Prescott is talented, he will make mistakes.  Eli is a solid veteran, but even with an unsteady running game, he has ODB!

Detroit Lions +3 at Indianapolis Colts

I feel the Colts are a bit overrated, and may not make the playoffs this year.  Detroit's offense was one of the league's best the last quarter of the season last year, and look to continue that production.

Arizona Cardinals -7 v. New England Patriots

Arizona has both one of the league's most explosive offenses, and one of the most staunchest defenses.  New England has Jimmy Garropolo and only 4 receivers on the entire roster.

Washington Redskins +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I will take points at home, and the Redskins have the making of a really nice offense with Kirk Cousins, Matt Jones - if he can hold onto the ball - and a revitalized DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon out wide, and Jordan Reed up the middle.  If their defense can finish middle of the road or better, this team can win their division.

San Francisco 49ers +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Even though Blaine Gabbert is starting, this team is coalescing around Colin Kaepernick.  Expect a healthy dose of Carlos Hyde.  The Rams need an identity, and you would think it would revolve around Todd Gurley - and it ultimately may - but we need to see it.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

Ladies and gentlemen, Shaun Hill is getting 2 1/2 points.  SHAUN HILL?!

I really was not sure which game to pick here, but I did find a home team getting points, and going against Shaun Hill.  I expect Mariota to have an excellent season this year, especially with a more potent running game than last year.

Last Week's Record:  0-0
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-0
Year-to-Date Record: 0-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $0
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $0

Picks of the Week

THE NFL IS BACK, which also means the Picks of the Week are back.  For those returning readers, this is old hate, but for those that are new to the blog, I will pick each NFL game, hoping to win big money by the end of the season.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

New England Patriots -7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
After the offseason that the Patriots and Tom Brady have had, is there any doubt that they come out swinging tonight?!  Plus, the weather calls for some torrential downpours, and I have more trust in Belicheck creating some type of running game versus the Steelers who only have two running backs on its active roster.  Could this turn into a Julius Edelman versus Antonio Brown slot-catch fest?

Chicago Bears +6 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers
I just think that the loss of Jordy Nelson is going to mean much more to the Packers that most people think; not enough to lost this game, but perhaps it is closer than it ordinarily would be.

Indianapolis -2 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
Regular readers know that I absolutely despise picking road favorites, plus the Bills are a really trendy pick to be vastly improved (perhaps playoffs?).  I am not on the bandwagon as Tyrod Taylor is going to have to prove to me that he can play at this level without turning the ball over.

Kansas City Chiefs +1 at Houston Texans
To me, Kansas City is a serious playoff contender.  The Texans have a potentially devastating defensive line with Jadeveon Clowney (finally) joining J>J. Watt, and with the addition of Vince Wilfork.  Jeremy Maclin will make a world of difference for the Chiefs offense.

Carolina Panthers -3 at Jacksonville Jaguars
My major caveat to selecting road favorites are "if they are playing at Jacksonville".  Bortles could make a big leap forward, however, unless T.J. Yeldon develops quicker than any Alabama running back not named Eddie Lacy, this offense could still be very stagnant.  At least Cam Newton has Greg Olsen to throw to.

New York Jets -3 v. Cleveland Browns
Two interesting stats from Sinickal, you tell me which one is more interesting.  (1) The Cleveland Browns have a person from each level of the organization suspended for week one (GM, Coach, Player); or (2) Of the five players received in the trade for Julio Jones, not a single one remains of their roster.  Plus, the Jets still have a defensive-minded coach in Todd Bowles and Ryan Fitzpatrick.  I look for a breakout year from Chris Ivory and Brandon Marshall should be astounding.

St. Louis Rams +4 v. Seattle
I really don't know why I am picking this game.  The Rams, while solid last year, did not make any drastic improvements for this week (Todd Gurley will not be playing for a bit).  But, I just have this feeling.  Seattle added Jimmy Graham, but St. Louis only gave up 2 touchdowns to tight ends all last year.

Arizona Cardinals -2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints
The Cardinals return most of their defense, and their offense, although not spectacular, was very steady before Carson Palmer went down last year.  The Saints, meanwhile, have lost a lot.  Can Mark Ingram shoulder the load?  Is Josh Hill a suitable replacement for Jimmy Graham?  Who will step up at receiver?  Lots of questions to be answered.

San Diego Chargers -2 1/2 v. Detroit Lions
If Ameer Abdullah can be a primary running back in this league, the Lions offense, with Stafford, Johnson and Golden Tate, could be scary.  That being said, the Chargers have proven the past few years that they are good, and can be great.  I will take the known team over the unknown.

Baltimore Ravens +4 1/2 at Denver Broncos
The Ravens continually over-perform the experts, and I believe they will continue to do so.  A lot is expected of the Broncos, perhaps even the Super Bowl.  I don't see it this year.  Manning is aged a bit, and although C.J. Anderson is supposed to take some of the pressure off the passing game, the Broncos will do well to make the playoffs.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at Oakland Raiders
Two very enigmatic teams; the Bengals because of the divide between their regular season and playoff performances; the Raiders because of the fact that they change coaches ever 4 weeks.  Khalil Mack is a future star in this league, but Cincinnati may have too much offense.

Tennessee Titans +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mariota versus Winston.  Interesting opening week matchup, huh?  Since there are two rookie quarterbacks starting in their first game, I think this will be low scoring and close.  Hence, I take the points.

Dallas Cowboys -6 v. New York Giants
Intra-divisional games are always tough, given the history the teams have with each other.  However, the Cowboys have good offensive players at every position, whereas the Giants have Odell Beckham, Jr.  I think the problems surrounding the team's handling of Jason-Pierre Paul's July 4th incident that resulted in the amputation of a finger will linger for awhile.

Atlanta Falcons +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles
According to a lot of people I know, we might as well just give the Super Bowl to Philadelphia.  I know a bunch of idiots.  Is Sam Bradford that big of an upgrade over Nick Foles?  I know that Murray is NOT an upgrade over McCoy (runs too straight, not as fast, had a great o-line in Dallas).  The Falcons do have the best wide receiver in football, and my top candidate for defensive rookie of the year in Vic Beasley.

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 at San Francisco
Minnesota has Adrian Peterson returning, while San Francisco has nobody returning.  Literally.  They all retired.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 at Washington Redskins
The Redskins might be the most dysfunctional team in sports not named the Miami Marlins.  Kirk Cousins?  Really?  Meanwhile, the Dolphins are much improved and might actually have the best defensive line in all of football by adding Ndamukung Suh to Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon.


Last Week: 0-0
Year-to-Date: 0-0
Big Bet Last Week: 0-0
Big Bet Year to Date: 0-0
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $0
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $0

NFL Wrap-Up

Here are my thoughts from Week 1 of the NFL season, based purely on what I was able to see.  I was not at my usual bar(s), so I did not see as much as usual, but still!

Game of the Week

Atlanta Falcons 37 v. New Orleans Saints 34.  This game had lots of action, tons of offense, and Atlanta's Matt Bahr kicking a 51 yard field goal at the end of regulation to send the game to overtime and then winning it with a 52 yarder.  Drew Brees and Matt Ryan threw for a combined 781 yards to 16 different receivers.  Plus, it was a divisional game in Week 1.  Great way to start the season for the Falcons, and the fans.

Best Team Performance

Seattle Seahawks. They decimated the NFC North champions and Aaron Rodgers.  Granted it was at home, where the Seahawks could go 8-0, but this team has no flaws.  Smart quarterback, they can run, they can pass, they can stop the run and they can stop the pass.  Wait, they do have a flaw - they need a punt returner.

Least Impressive Team Performance

Washington Whatever their new Name is Going to Be - They were horrible.  Plain and simple.  Is it too early to start the chant for Kirk Cousins?

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Julius Thomas, TE - Denver- 7 receptions, 104 yards and 3 TDs.  I wanted to choose Matt Ryan for his 448 yards passing, but Thomas was so uncoverable that it was not even fair to the Colts that he was on the field.  His 35 yard TD reception - in which he out ran the linebacker in coverage, then outmaneuvered the rest of the defense into the end zone was special.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)
Eric Berry, S - Kansas City Chiefs. 15 tackles, including 14 solo tackles and a pass defensed, against a team that ran the ball 38 times and threw 33 (with 22 completions).  That is 1/4 of the tackles the Chiefs made were from Berry.  Cameron Wake and his 2 sacks and overall mayhem that he created also deserves mention.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Matt Bahr, K - Atlanta Falcons.  A 51 yard field goal as time expired to to tie the game, and a 52  yarder in overtime to win.

Goat of the Week

Robert Griffin, III, QB - Washington Whatever their new Name is Going to Be - Horrible.  Passing numbers not too bad (19/37 for 267 yards), but for a guy whose legs are supposed to be a weapon, being sacked three times and 2 yards on 3 rushes is not good.

Hit of the Week

Antonio Brown, WR/KR - Pittsburgh Steeler.  OK, so maybe it was a penalty, but his karate kick to Cleveland punter Spencer Lanning was downright funny to watch, and spawned its own internet meme.

Breakthrough Performance

Derek Carr - QB - Oakland Raiders. No the Raiders didn't win - but they covered (and as a west coast team playing the early game on the east coast, that seems next to impossible), and no Bradford did not play like a star.  he was 20-32 with 2 TDs and no interceptions.  But, he looked like he belonged in the NFL as a QB, especially given that his team ran for 25 total rushing yards.  He has a chance to really be good

Finally

Ray Rice, (Former) RB - Baltimore Ravens

Yes all of this came out on Monday, but it deserves mention.  Maybe it took the video for Baltimore to release him and the NFL to suspend him indefinitely, but as far as I am concerned, better late than never.

Impact Injury

Robert Mathis, DE - Indianapolis Colts/Derrick Johnson, LB - Kansas City Chiefs.  The best players on their respective defenses, and both are out for the season with torn Achilles.  Tough to see Indianapolis stopping anyone without Mathis to provide a pass rush.  At least the Colts might have the offense to outscore opponents.  Derrick Johnson is the heart and soul of a potential playoff defense, and the Chiefs do not have the same offensive firepower as the Colts.

Team Rising

Minnesota Viking - New coach; utilizing Adrian Peterson but not overusing him; solid defense; breakout by Cordarelle Patterson.  This team has the ability to challenge in the tough NFC North against the likes of Green Bay, Detroit and Chicago.

Team Falling

Dallas Cowboys/New York Giants/Washington Whatever their New Name is Going to Be - The Eagles may clinch this division by the end of October.

Best Teams

1. Seattle Seahawks
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. Denver Broncos
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Detroit Lions

Worst Teams

32. Washington Redskins
31. St. Louis Rams
30. New York Giants
29. Kansas City Chiefs
28. Dallas Cowboys

Middle Teams

15.  Arizona Cardinals
16.  New York Jets
17.  Bufffalo Bills
18.  Houston Texans

Preview - Game(s) of the Week

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night would normally make this list just for the hard-hitting (literally) rivalry, however these two teams are both down a bit, and the history of the last couple of years has definitively shown that Thursday night games stink.  So, this game does not make the top 4.

4. Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals - Two super exciting offenses, and does anybody really believe that the Falcons were as bad as their record last year.  The loss of LT Sam Baker could really hurt against a very underrated, yet spectacular, Cincinnati front 7.  AJ Green and Julio Jones continue to battle for supremacy from their recruiting class.

3. Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers - Despite the loss against Buffalo, the Bears gained an absolute ton of yards.  Although I do not expect that many yards against the Niners, this game should promise to be fun to watch, with San Francisco's offensive line proving to be the difference.

2. Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers - The classic strength versus strength match up, with the Lions vaunted offense going against the stellar - yes stellar - Panthers defense.  With Cam Newton coming back and Kelvin Benjamin to emerge as a go-to-receiver, the Panthers offense can control the game, and conversely, DeAndre Levy might be the most underrated defensive player in football.

1.  Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts - If you asked 1,000 analysts and experts, 1,000 would say this is the game of the week.  If they do not, they should be fired as an analyst and they are not an expert.

Trivia

With Denver's victory over the Colts on Sunday night, Peyton Manning has now defeated all 32 franchises during his storied career, making him the second to do so. Who was the first?  Yes this is pretty easy, but this is week 1.

Sports Bar Review of the Week

As stated earlier, I did not watch the games at a Sports Bar to watch this week's games, so I will review one that I attended recently.

Taps Bar and Grille, 220 County Road 210 West, Jacksonville (St. Augustine, really), FL

Taps is more restaurant than bar, but has plenty of televisions and the casual atmosphere necessary for a good sports bar.  They had several games on the televisions (this day was actually college), and a general congenial atmosphere given that the staff and most of the patrons were wearing shirts of different rivals (primarily Florida and Florida State, but a smattering of Michigan State/Ohio State and others).  One guy even requested the Georgia Tech game.

The service was friendly and good, with both the bartenders and wait staff being incredibly friendly and knowledgeable about the menu, both beer and food.  They would, from time-to-time, become distracted, but nothing to ordinarily complain about if I was not writing this review.

As the name suggests, the bar concentrates serving a clientele that favors beer, particularly and almost exclusively of craft beers.  Your attention is immediately attracted to the digital board showcasing the craft beers in draft and bottle.  Our party partook of a local beer, the Intuition I-10 IPA, the Kentucky Bourbon Barrel Ale, the Tucher Hefeweizen, Hofbrau Oktoberfestbier and a Dogfish Head 90 minute IPA.  All delicious, although the bar did run out of the Tucher during our relatively short stay.

For food, the bartender recommended to try the smoked wings, which were on special at $.25 per, available in groups of 10.  We had the dry rub, foregoing the buffalo sauce, and this was a good cal as the flavor was delicious.  We also had the fried pickles appetizer, which were very good.  Now, as a caveat, I love pickles, but I find the fried pickle rend a little disturbing as some places do them well and some taste horrible.  Taps is in the former, luckily.  As an entree, we split the wedge salad and jambalaya.  The wedge was good, but nothing special, and the jambalaya was good, but not as spicy as I would prefer.

As a plus, the bar, restaurant and the restrooms were all extremely clean.

Overall, a very good experience, I would recommend Taps.

Service - NFC North
Drinks - NFC North
Food - NFC South
Cleanliness - NFC West
Overall - Detroit Lions (2nd or 3rd in the NFC North) - Pretty Darned Good

Rating System Best to Worst:  NFC West, NFC North, NFC South, AFC North, AFC West, AFC South, AFC East, NFC East

Trivia Answer

No question as this was Week 1.  Look for the answer to the previous week's question here each week.

Picks of the Week

Full analysis of all the week's games forthcoming, but because we have a Thursday night game ...

Denver Broncos -7 versus Baltimore Ravens

Picks of the Week

Welcome back to this year's "picks of the week" segment that will occur weekly at We Make It Rain. As a refresher, I like to keep track of what I would have earned had I actually bet on all of the games (since gambling is illegal). Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I will keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. On to the picks.

New Orleans Saints - 4 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
See my entry from Thursday.

Carolina Panthers + 6 1/2 at New York Giants
The Giants struggled at the end of last season, going 3-8 in their last 11. I just don't see them as being that talented overall, especially on offense. And they are giving points!

Miami Dolphins -3 at Buffalo Bills
I suspect that the Bills will be much better than expected this season, but they still have a long season ahead of them.

Pittsburgh Steelers +1 v. Atlanta Falcons
This should be a close game, so I will take the points. Steelers defense, with Polamalu, keeps them in the game. I look for Dixon to make one really special, and one really costly, play.

Detroit Lions +7 at Chicago Bears
The Detroit Lions defensive line looks to be much improved, with Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch. Stafford should be much improved as well. I don't know if the Lions will win outright, but they should cover. The Bears could be really, really bad this year.

Cincinnati Bengals + 4 1/2 at New England Patriots
The story is going to be a rookie and a second year cornerback for the Patriots guarding TO and OchoCinco, with little or no pass rush. Take the Bengals outright.

Denver Broncos + 2 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville could be in for a long, long season. Most of the people attending this game will be wearing Denver and or UF 15 jerseys anyway.

Houston Texans +1 v. Indianapolis Colts
It has to happen sometime, and it might as well occur when Indy's run game is struggling.

Tennessee Titans -6 v. Oakland Raiders
All Vince Young does is win. It isn't always pretty numerically, but he gets it done.

Green Bay Packers -3 at Philadelphia Eagles
I could easily see the Packers in the Super Bowl this year.

San Francisco -3 at Seattle Seahawks
The winner of this game could actually clinch the division title - yes in week 1.

St. Louis Rams +4 v. Arizona Cardinals
Now wouldn't this be a surprise? However, some surprise always occurs in week 1. Arizona lost a ton of talent (Warner, Boldin, Dansby), and Fitzgerald is hurting. This team may have to reevaluate itself very quickly.

Dallas Cowboys - 3 1/2 at Washington Redskins
Dallas will almost certainly implode this season, I just don't expect it to be week 1. The Redskins may ultimately show improvement this year, but it is going to take a bit of time to get there.

Baltimore Ravens + 1 1/2 at New York Jets
Baltimore's offense is much better than the Jets. The Jets defense is not that much better than the Ravens.

San Diego Chargers - 4 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are also going to be better as the season moves forward, just not in week 1.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cleveland Browns + 4 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay should not be giving points to anybody at this stage, I don't care if it is a home game or not.

Previous Week's Record: N/A
Year to Date: N/A
Winnings (Losses): N/A