Picks of the Week

  

Finally, an absolutely amazing week.  An 11-5 record, thanks to a late switch from the Bears to the Vikings once I learned the Bears' entire secondary was out due to Covid protocols.  With a win in the big bet, I was able to erase a whole lot of losses.  Perhaps in a season that was entirely unpredictable even before the Covid resurgence (Thanks Omicron!), perhaps all it took was total chaos for me to right the ship.  For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans + 3 1/2 San Francisco 49ers

Both teams have a lot of players out of this game, so the home team seemed right in a short week, which seemed shorter since we had 2 games on Tuesday night to finish last week, especially receiving points.

 

Green Bay Packers -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Two starting offense linemen, the strength of the Browns, missed this game due to Covid protocols, so it should have been easy for the Packers to cover.  But alas, they lightened up from a sure cover to give up a late touchdown (but not late enough to call it a backdoor cover).  Plus, the Browns were on a super-short week (Monday-Saturday).  Of course, though, we should have guessed Aaron Rodgers hates Christmas.

Indianapolis Colts +3 at Arizona Cardinals

This was a super-easy pick, even with arguably the best player in the NFL out due to Covid protocols Quenton Nelson, (And yes, Quenton Nelson is in that conversation - if you don't believe so, you don't watch football).  Did anybody see how Detroit ran all over Arizona last week?  Jonathan Taylor Thomas must have been licking his chops watching film this week.  My only regret is that I didn't type up my picks earlier so that I could designate this my big bet. 

Detroit Lions +7 at Atlanta Falcons

Can anybody honestly look at these teams and not at least question if 2-win Detroit isn't better than 6-8 Atlanta?  Of course we question that, so, give me the 7.

Philadelphia Eagles -10 v. New York Giants

Mike Glennon.  Plus, the Eagles are 1st in the league in rushing, and the Giants defense is 26th in the league in stopping the run.  Ten points in an intradivisional game is a lot to give up, but crazy things have happened this year.  I hate that the Eagles played Tuesday night, but at least they are home.

New York Jets -2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence hasn't thrown a touchdown in forever, and the Jaguars may need the rest of the year to cast off the pall of Urban Meyer.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

First an angry Tom Brady is a great Tom Brady, and Brady is angry after his performance last week.  Plus, Sam Darnold might make an appearance.

Los Angeles Chargers -11 1/2 at Houston Texans

Give up double digits on the road?  In 2021, sure.  Chargers haven't scored fewer than 28 points in the last 3 weeks, and Justin Jackson is more than a capable backup with Austin Ekeler on the Covid list.  Houston is 31st in the league in scoring, so hopefully the numbers hold up.

New England Patriots Pick 'Em v. Buffalo Bills

Other than a win over hapless, directionless Carolina last week, the Bills have not been playing well, and, Belichick's game plan of throwing the ball 3 times in the Patriots victory 3 weeks ago has to be playing mind tricks on the Bills' coaching staff.

Los Angeles Rams -3 at Minnesota Vikings

The Rams are really rounding into their status as pre-season NFC favorites, no 6th in the league in total offense and 5th in scoring offense.  Minnesota will be hard-pressed to keep up without Dalvin Cook and possibly without Adam Thielen.  Rams played Tuesday, but Minnesota played Monday, so both teams on a short week makes this pick tougher.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 v. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have been resilient in their last 3 games, even though all 3 have been losses (by a total of 4 points).  But being without Lamar Jackson AND Tyler Huntley will press Josh Johnson, who hasn't played since the Obama administration [Ed. Note - Hyperbole], into a starting role.

Seattle Seahawks -6 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

Short week for both teams with the Bears having played on Monday and the Seahawks on Tuesday, but at least Seattle is home.   Fire Matt Nagy!!!

Denver Broncos -1 at Las Vegas Raiders

Both teams mediocre, as is this pick.  I would hate it either way.

Kansas City Chiefs -11 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

This seems preposterous, until you look and see that the strength of the Steelers, its defense, isn't actually a strength as they are 27th in total defense, and 22nd in scoring defense.  And as good a season as Najee Harris is having, the Steelers are 31st in the NFL in rushing.

Dallas Cowboys -9 1/2 v. Washington Football Team

Dallas in the hunt for the number 1 seed in the NFC, and are cruising with 3 wins in a row.  The Ezekiel Elliott/Tony Pollard combination is WAY more dangerous than Ezekiel Elliott on his own.  Plus, Antonio Gibson might not play.

Miami Dolphins -2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Saints down to Ian Book.  Here's to hoping newly-signed Blake Bortles makes an appearance.

Big Bet:

Detroit Lions +7 at Atlanta Falcons

Can anybody honestly look at these teams and not at least question if 2-win Detroit isn't better than 6-8 Atlanta?  Of course we question that, so, give me the 7.

Dan Campbell did say at the beginning of the year that nobody was going to play harder than his team - and he has been RIGHT!

Last Week's Record:  11-5

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  119-105

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $700

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($235) 

Picks of the Week

This is already a crazy week.  Three games postponed from their original times so that now we have double-headers on Monday AND Tuesday.  And with people dropping like flies out of the active lists for Covid, who even knows which players are going to be eligible.  But, that notwithstanding, since we have a game tonight, I will be making my picks for the entire weekend.  If something major causes a change, I will update, but planning on riding this one out.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Los Angeles Chargers

Taking the away team on a short week?  Yes.  Giving points in a divisional rivalry game?  Yes.  Especially when that team cannot cover Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.  Good start to the week.

Indianapolis  Colts -2 1/2 v. New England Patriots

There aren't many teams hotter than the Indianapolis Colts right now, winners of 4 of their last 5, but New England is one of those teams, having won 7 straight.  The Colts, with Jonathan Taylor Thomas are second in the NFL in rushing, and the one kink in the Patriots' 3rd ranked defense is that rank only 18th in rushing defense.

Buffalo Bills -13 v. Carolina Panthers

Carolina is a mess, having not only lost 3 games in a row, but doing so while rotating quarterbacks, injuring Christian McCaffrey and losing to the Falcons.  Buffalo NEEDS this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars -5 v. Houston Texans

I am playing the firing of Urban Meyer is addition by subtraction here.  Plus, maybe James Robinson will get all the carries now.

Tennessee Titans +1 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Every bone in my body was telling me to pick Pittsburgh here, but for some reason I just cannot do it.

Detroit Lions +12 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Unlike my Buffalo pick, where I am giving up lots of points because Buffalo needs that win, Detroit always plays tough and Arizona doesn't need this one.  Cardinals still win in a close one.  Plus Arizona is on a short week.

New York Jets +10 at Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are a mess due to Covid, and losing Jaylen Waddle for this game is huge!!!  However, the team was able to activate Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed from the Covid list, so they will have somebody besides Duke Johnson available.  Bet on a huge game by Mike Geisicki, though, but this game will be close.

Dallas Cowboys -10 at New York Giants

Given this wacky season, I'll give double digits in a divisional game only because the Giants are the 26th ranked defense in the NFL going against the NFL's best offense, and second-highest scoring team.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 at Denver Broncos

We will see if the Bengals want to make the playoffs or not.  They face a challenging Broncos defense, but they need to right the ship after two straight losses.

San Francisco 49ers -9 v. Atlanta Falcons

San Francisco is just that much better than Atlanta right now.

Green Bay Packers -7 at Baltimore Ravens

If Lamar Jackson cannot go, the Packers cover this spread easily.

Tampa Bay Buccanneers -11 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

The quarterback situation in New Orleans is shaky at best, but without Sean Payton, they shouldn't have a chance.

Cleveland Browns -3 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are (rightfully pissed) at having to move this game to Monday.  That anger is likely going to be a distraction.  And, with Baker Mayfield out in Cleveland, we will see a whole ot of Nick Chubb, and the Raiders have the 26th best run defense in the NFL (and 31st in scoring defense).

Chicago Bears +6 v. Minnesota Vikings

Who needs coordinators?  Or, as the Bears have shown all year, who needs an actual coach?  (#Fire Matt Nagy).  Most of Minnesota's games are close, so that is how I am playing this pick.

Los Angeles Rams -6 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

The move to Tuesday keeps the Rams from playing on a short week.  Plus, the Seahawks' loss of Tyler Lockett to Covid is worse than the Rams' loss of Darrell Henderson.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Washington Football Team

So, Gardner Minshew can actually throw, if he has to play again in place of Jalen Hurts.  Can we say the same thing about Kyle Shurmur?

Big Bet:

Los Angeles Rams -6 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

The move to Tuesday keeps the Rams from playing on a short week.  Plus, the Seahawks' loss of Tyler Lockett to Covid is worse than the Rams' loss of Darrell Henderson.

Los Angeles' victory over Arizona last Monday night showed us what they can actually do as a football team, and should be just as scary to the NFC as Kansas City's 7-game win streak is to the AFC.

Last Week's Record:  8-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  108-100

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($25)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($935) 

Picks of the Week

As bad as November was, I will take a small winning week to start December.  Here's hoping that can continue and grow throughout the month.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

In the battle of the teams not good enough to beat Detroit, Minnesota just didn't collaps enough at the end.

Baltimore Ravens +3 at Cleveland Browns

In a game that should be close, and be won by the running game (Baltimore and Cleveland tied for 3rd in rushing offense, Baltimore tied for 1st in rushing defense), I'll take the points.

Washington Football Team +4 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

Washington's defense is starting to live up to how we thought they would play, after being a total farce to start the season.  Given that scenario, I'll also take the points, especially at home.

Kansas City Chiefs -10 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are 1-4 since their bye, and the Chiefs are not only on a 5 game winning streak, they are also starting to look like a potential Super Bowl team.  Lots points in a rivalry game, but I'll gladly give them here.

Houston Texans +9 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seatlle has the 31st ranked defense, whereas Houston is not much better (29th).  Just taking the points here, honestly.

Tennessee Titans -8 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

The noise coming out of Jacksonville regarding the players disdain for Urban Meyer is deafening.  Too bad this didn't come out before USC and Notre Dame made coaching hires.

New Orleans Saints -5 1/2 at New York Jets

I honestly cannot figure out this game.  Picking New Orleans simply because I am hoping Alvin Kamara comes back and makes a huge difference.  Otherwise, I would stay away from this game.

Carolina Panthers -2 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Another tough game to select.  Taking Carolina on thebasis of their defense (2nd in total defense, 2nd in passing defense, 5th in 3rd down percentage defense, and 7th in scoring defense.)

Detroit Lions + 11 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Detroit has played a lot of tough, close games.  No reason to think they cannot do that here also.

Los Angeles Chargers -9 1/2 v. New York Giants

Mike Glennon.

Cincinnati Bengals +1 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco has overwhelmingly relied upon the rush this season.  Cincinnati is 4th in rushing defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

The Jeckyll and Hyde Bills strike again, although even in wins they seem to struggle recently (except against the Jets.)

Chicago Bears +11 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Honestly, if this spread was 9 1/2 I would take the Packers.  Chicago back-door covers.

Los Angeles Rams +2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Definitely the game of the week.  A great Monday night affair.  Sony Michel makes a ton of difference for the Rams, bolstering their 6th ranked offense (but 23rd in rushing).  Arizona is rolling, but not sure we can learn much from playing the Bears last week.

Big Bet

Washington Football Team +4 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

Washington's defense is starting to live up to how we thought they would play, after being a total farce to start the season.  Given that scenario, I'll also take the points, especially at home.

I also thought about taking Baltimore.

Bye Week:  Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles

Last Week's Record:  8-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  100-94

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $290

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($910) 

Picks of the Week

So, as it turns out, November 2021 has been the worst football betting month ever.  Like seriously.  Vegas doesn't care who wins games ordinarily, because they want the lines to be so accurate that there is similar amounts of money on both sides.  Vegas then wins with the vig.  However, a larger percentage of NFL bets were lost last month than ever before.  Makes sense, as November has ruined my year.

I have a busy morning, so just short analysis, if at all.  For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Dallas Cowboys -6 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Good start to the weekend.

Chicago Bears +7 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

The Bears have no chance to win this game, but with Andy Dalton, they can keep it ugly and close, especially if Kyler Murran is rusty in his return.

New York Jets +5 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Another close game so I'll take the points at home.  Can the Jets put up a winning streak?

Indianapolis Colts -10 at Houston Texans

After being demoralized by losing to the Jets last week, look for the Texans to just pull up camp and phone it in for the rest of the season.  (I love mixed metaphors!)  Plus, road double digit favorites in division is usually a horrible bet, except everything has gone against script this year.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

OK, so I will follow the rules here by taking the home team against the west coast team travelling east and playing the early game.  Plus, Cincinnati has the number 6 scoring offense, and the number 6 scoring defense in the NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Why not 2 double digit visiting intra-divisional favorites.  (Can you tell I am just grasping at straws here?)

Miami Dolphins -6 1/2 v. New York Giants

Mike Glennon.  Seriously, Mike Glennon.  Plus a four-game winning streak for the Dolphins.

Detroit Lions +7 v. Minnesota Vikings

Both teams like to keep games close.

Los Angeles Rams -13 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

If the Rams are going to turn this season around, showcase the Super Bowl form everyone expected, AND stop their three-game slide, it is this game.  I do not like the 13 points, though.

Las Vegas Raiders -1 1/2 v. Washington Football Team

Simply because they are the home team.  Literally no other reason.

Baltimore Ravens -4 at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers should move on from Ben Roethlisberger.  Not after this year, but now.

San Francisco 49ers -3 at Seattle Seahawks

San Francisco is simply a better team.  Seattle is 31st in total offense AND 31st in total defense.  Not a good recipe for success.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 v. Denver Broncos

Kansas City seems to have righted the ship after some mid-season doldrums.  They are looking for their 12th straight victory over the Broncos.

New England Patriots +3 at Buffalo Bills

Buffalo is 3-3 in their last 6, whereas Belichick has the Patriots rolling.  Does anybody out there not think Belichick can keep this close?  I am so looking forward to this game, by the way.

Big Bet

Miami Dolphins -6 1/2 v. New York Giants

Mike Glennon.  Seriously, Mike Glennon.  Plus a four-game winning streak for the Dolphins.

All hail King Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa!

Bye Week:  

Last Week's Record:  8-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  92-88

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($135)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($1,200) 

Picks of the Week

 

Last week was horrible.  Just atrocious.  The kind of week that makes it virtually impossible to have a winning season no matter how many winning weeks I put together.  The type of week that would make a lessser man give up making picks forever, or at least for the rest of the year.  I am not that lesser of a man, especially after I eat Thanksgiving meal where I will literally be more of a man.  So, Happy Thanksgiving to all.

I am making my picks for the entire weekend, but I reserve the right to change my mind should a key injury occur before then, or if a key player doesn't play and that player factored into my decision.  But, for the most part, I am going to just let it roll.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions +3 v. Chicago Bears

I wish this pick was as simple as selecting the home team on a short week, but there is much, much more involved.  Matt Nagy has lost the team, and the team has made that clear to management.  Then, apparently on Tuesday, ownership representatives met with Nagy to inform him that he was fired after today's game no matter what.  Then, Charles McCaskey holds a presser to say he specifically told Nagy that he would not be fired.  So, who to belive?  What to believe?  What I believe is that this team does not want to play for Nagy, and the backslide by ownership probably hurts more than helps.  And, Detroit has played tough for the most part.  #FireMattNagy

Dallas Cowboys -7 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have lost 3 games in a row coming out of their bye week.  Included in that stretch is a loss to the Giants, and giving up 41 and 32 in the last 2 games.  Dallas averages just under 30 per game.  They should win handily, even without Amari Cooper.  Oh yeah, and home team on a short week.

New Orleans Saints +6 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

So this is the one game out of the three that the automatic home team on a short week is not an obvious pick.  But, Buffalo has lost 2 out of 3, salvaging a blowout of the Jets between a miserable 9-6 loss to Jacksonville and last week's annihilation at the hands of the Colts.  The Saints have the 10th best defense in terms of yards and points, which should be enough to keep this game close.  Unless, of course, the Bills team that we though existed shows up.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 v. Atlanta Falcons

This might be the worst game on the slate, so give me the points.  Jacksonville has the 17th ranked rush offense and rush defense, and those are the two highest ranked units in this game.  Ugh!

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. New York Jets

This might be the worst game on the slate if not for the Jacksonville-Atlanta matchup.  So, not only did Houston ruin everyone's weeks last week by beating the Titans (and knocking Adrian Peterson off the Titans roster, and perhaps out of the league forever), but they are also 2-1 in games in which Tyrod Taylor starts and finishes this year.  Taylor actually can play a little.

New England Patriots -6 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

I'll admit that I don't like this spread.  I feel like it should be more around the 4 range, but, New England is hitting its stride and is now the 6th leading scorer in the NFL, and the best scoring defense in the NFL.  And Tennessee's problems extend whell beyond just missing Derrick Henry.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at New York Giants

Competing algorithms in this one:  never give up points on the road in the division, and don't pick teams on a short week.  But the Giants, who had been playing well, broke themselves by going for it on the rushed 4th and 1 on Monday night (at least if you want to go for it there, call timeout instead of rushing the play).  It also broke Jason Garrett as he was fired.  Philly is on a two game winning streak putting up 30 against Denver and 40 against New Orleans.

Cincinnati Bengals -4 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a difficult game to pick because Cincinnati might be the most Jeckyll and Hyde team in the NFL.  So, admittedly, this pick is based a lot on feel.  And that feeling is that Pittsburgh is not the same team with Ben Roethlisberger, in a bad way.

Indianapolis Colts +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Is Jonathan Taylor the MVP so far this year?  Yes.  Will Tom Brady win the award over Taylor?  Also yes.  The Colts have scored over 40 in two of the last three games, and have won 3 in a row.  Tampa needed a boneheaded decision and play on 4th down by the Giants on Monday night to help the cruise to an easy victory from what was a close game.  Oh yeah, and Tampa played Monday night.

Miami Dolphins +2 v. Carolina Panthers

Another difficult decision.  My rationale is taking points at home in what should be a short game, but really is based upon the fact that this team looks way better with Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa at the helm.  And yes, that is his full name.

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Should be a tough, close game so I will take the points.  Denver has the 3rd best scoring defense in the NFL, and 9th in total defense.  And, in a super-surprise stat of the day, Teddy Bridgewater has a higher quarterback rating than Justin Herbert (98.8 to 98.4 - negligible to be fair) (and a better nickname, "Teddy Two Gloves").

San Francisco 49ers -3 v. Minnesota Vikings

Both Minnesota and San Francisco have won two in a row to bring themselves into the playoff discussion.  Kirk Cousins is probably playing the best football of his life (106.3 rating with only 2 interceptions and 21 TDs).  But, San Francisco has the 6th best defense - 3rd against the pass), and Minnesota's team is grappling with the Everson Griffen situation.

Green Bay Packers +1 v. Los Angeles Rams

So, the Packers are 9-2 against the spread this year, but Covid-toe Aaron Rodgers is 0-1 against the spread, meaning this pick is probably the wrong way to go.  But, whenever Rodgers has something to prove, he is very dangerous - with apologies to Baker Mayfield.

Cleveland Browns +3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

And speaking of Baker Mayfield ... Tyler Huntley - that is all.

Washington Football Team -1 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

No team has confounded me more in the past few years than the WFT.  If Taylor Heinicke can keep down the turnovers, they could win on Monday night.

Big Bet

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. New York Jets

This might be the worst game on the slate if not for the Jacksonville-Atlanta matchup.  So, not only did Houston ruin everyone's weeks last week by beating the Titans (and knocking Adrian Peterson off the Titans roster, and perhaps out of the league forever), but they are also 2-1 in games in which Tyrod Taylor starts and finishes this year.  Taylor actually can play a little.

In this weird year, yes, I am taking the Texans a a big bet.

Bye Week:  Arizona Cardinals, Kansas City Chiefs

Last Week's Record:  5-10

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  84-81

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($450)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($1,065) 

Picks of the Week

Just when I was getting back to normal, and little back-slide last week, but at least my big bet covered.  Thank goodness for the Packers, who are 9-1 against the spread this year.  Maybe I should just keep selecting them as my big bet (ugh!).

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots -7 at Atlanta Falcons

Home team/short week, right?  Not when the Pats are on a hot streak, and Atlanta is not only reeling, they are pretty boring too.

Chicago Bears +4 v. Baltimore Ravens

On the one hand, Lamar Jackson is 25-2 the first time he plays a team, and this is his first game against the Bears.  On the other hand, Jackson is suffering from an undisclosed illness and may not play today.  He missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, practiced Friday, but suffered more effects yesterday.  The good thing for Tyler Huntley is that Khalil Mack is having season-ending foot surgery.

Jacksonville Jaguars +6 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco looked great last Monday night in their victory over the Los Angeles Rams.  But, that is part of the problem. It was Monday night, which makes this a short week.  On top of that San Francisco is travelling east and playing the early game.  I'll take points in that situation.

Carolina Panthers -3 1/2 v. Washington Football Team

Washington played great in their victory last week over the Buccaneers, but their defense is still 28th in the league in scoring, whereas Carolina's is 6th.  I know this is the return of Cam Newton game, but to me most importantly is that Christian McCaffrey has a game under his belt.

Green Bay Packers -1 at Minnesota Vikings

Did you not read the stat above where the Packers are 9-1 against the spread?  They have a better record against the spread than their actual record.  Plus, Aaron Rodgers has had some practice this week to get used to playing with his sore toe.  Poor baby.

Cleveland Browns -13 v. Detroit Lions

I'll admit that this pick is completely counterintuitive, but there is a tendency to overvalue the immediate past game, in this case the Lions' tie with the Steelers and the Browns' blowout at the hands of the Patriots.  Because both of those games will be overvalued, all the public money will be on the Lions.  Mine will be on the return of Nick Chubb against Detroit's 30th ranked rush defense.  Oh yeah, and with Jared Goff out, Tim Boyle is starting.  Seriously go look at his college stats - 12 career touchdowns and 26 career interceptions.

Buffalo Bills -7 v. Indianapolis Colts

A lot of focus is going to be on Josh Allen and the team's 2nd best scoring offense, but this game will be won by Buffalo's defense which is 1st overall, 1st in scoring, 1st in 3rd down percentage, 2nd in passing defense, and 3rd in rush defense.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 v. New Orleans Saints

The ascendancy of Jalen Hurts continues.

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 at New York Jets

The Dolphins have the worst rushing offense in the league, but, the Jets have the worst total defense and scoring defense, the 31st passing defense and the 29th rushing defense.  Miami will find a way to score some points.

Tennessee Titans -10 v. Houston Texans

I am not even going to bother researching anything to do with the Texans and I am just taking Tennessee at home.

Las Vegas Raiders +1 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Both teams were shellacked last week.  In that scenario, I'll take points at home.  Expect lots of passing yards in this game with Las Vegas (2nd) and Cincinnati (8th) going against a mediocre pass defense in Las Vegas (12th) and a poor one in Cincinnati (24th).

Kansas City Chiefs -2 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

I try not to overvalue just one game, but I do feel like we have been waiting all year for the Chiefs to explode like they did last week.  Could that be a bit of a portent of something to come?  I believe so.  Especially with Tyron Smith and Amari Cooper out for testing positive for Covid (with Cooper missing at least two games - which means he was unvaccinated).

Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Arizona Cardinals

I don't like this pick, but it looks like Colt McCoy will be starting.  And, since Russell Wilson has one game under his belt after recovering from injury thanks to his rehab of 29 hours each day, perhaps he might be close to his former self.

Los Angeles Chargers -5 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Roethlisberger returns.  Is this actually a good thing or not for Pittsburgh?

New York Giants +11 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Giants are improving and Tampa Bay is sliding.  Perhaps Antonio Brown has meant more to this team than previously thought?  He is also out agains this week.

Big Bet

Kansas City Chiefs -2 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

I try not to overvalue just one game, but I do feel like we have been waiting all year for the Chiefs to explode like they did last week.  Could that be a bit of a portent of something to come?  I believe so.  Especially with Tyron Smith and Amari Cooper out for testing positive for Covid (with Cooper missing at least two games - which means he was unvaccinated).

Banking on Kansas City being on an upswing after last week's performance.

Bye Week:  Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Rams

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  79-71

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($130)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($615) 

Picks of the Week

 

A slight winning week by number of winners, but the damn big bet got me again.  I knew that Aaron Rodgers would come back to haunt me as the Packers covered late in the 4th quarter.  Ugh!  Well, let's see if the winning percentage at least still goes up!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens -8 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

So, I was so exasperated by the fact that visiting teams have been doing well on Thursday night, that I just picked the visiting team without taking into account how poorly Baltimore has actually been playing.  That is on me.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10 at Washington Football Team

Giving up double digits on the road is never a good bet, but, Tampa is first in scoring offense, 1st in passing offense, 2nd in total offense and 2nd in offensive third down conversions whereas Washington is 29th in scoring defense, 29th in total defense, and last in passing defense and third down conversion defense.  And, Washington is 25th in scoring offense.  This game should not be close.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

The fact that Ben Roethlisberger is out screams for a Detroit pick, except, we will probably get a huge dose of Najee Harris against Detroit's 29th ranked rushing defense.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. New Orleans Saints

Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara both out.  Seems like a wash from that standpoint, so Tennessee is a much better team overall.  Mark Ingram is likely to become the leading rusher in New Orleans Saints history.

Atlanta Falcons +8 at Dallas Cowboys

Dallas should win this game, but Randy Gregory being out is HUGE for the Cowboys.  He was easily their most disruptive player on defense.  A lack of a pass rush probably keeps this game close.

Cleveland Browns +2 1/2 at New England Patriots

I should be taking Belichick in such a tactical game as this with both teams missing their star running backs, but this is one of those games where I just have a feeling that the Browns defense (3rd overall and against the rush), step up and pull this out - especially getting points.

Buffalo Bills -13 at New York Jets

The Bills are coming off a disappointing loss last week to the Jaguars, and I look for them to rebound with a vengeance.  This is akin to week 2, where after the Bills lost to the Steelers in week 1, torched the Miami Dolphins 35-0.

Jacksonville Jaguars +10 at Indianapolis Colts

Perhaps the Jaguars derive a little momentum after their victory over the Bills.  My guess is that they keep it close.

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

The Vikings should keep this close, since it seems like every game they are in is close.  Not sure how the civil suit filed against Dalvin Cook will affect his play, but the Chargers 32nd rush defense might look super appealing to him.

Carolina Panthers +9 at Arizona Cardinals

PJ Walker versus Colt McCoy.  Not how anybody would draw up this game, but that is what we have.  I completely underestimated Arizona with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins last time, but at least Christian McCaffrey is back.

Denver Broncos -1 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I really have no idea how this game is going to turn out.  Since there really isn't much of a spread, I'll take the home team.

Green Bay Packers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Anybody really want to bet against Aaron Rodgers after the last two weeks he has had?

Las Vegas Raiders +2 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

We have to be honest, this year's Chiefs are NOT the Chiefs of the past 3 years.  There is just something missing.  And the offense is probably not going to steady itself against the 5th ranked passing defense.  Plus, the Raiders have the number 2 passing offense in the NFL, and they are going against the 21st ranked passing defense in Kansas City.

San Francisco 49ers +3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Odell Beckham, Jr. is not going to be ready to play, or at least make a difference, in this game, which is a pity as the Rams lost Robert Woods for the season earlier this week.

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Anybody really want to bet against Aaron Rodgers after the last two weeks he has had?

I am going to be more specific, I will absolutely bet on Aaron Rodgers after the last two weeks he has had.  Still surprised he is not suspended, though.  (Who am I kidding, no I am not!)

Bye Week:  Chigago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans, New York Giants

Last Week's Record:  8-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  73-63

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($25)

Year to Date Winnings (Losses):  ($485)

Picks of the Week

And of course, I cannot have three winning weeks in a row, so it ends up being a horrible week.  Oh well, it is time to start an epic comeback.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Indianapolis Colts -10 v. New York Jets

Hooray - a Thursday win!

Miami Dolphins -5 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Please, please, don't anybody watch this game.  The 29th (Miami) ranked offense versus the 31st (Houston) ranked offense.  The 29th (Houston) ranked defense versus the 31st (Miami) ranked defense.  Ugh!

Dallas Cowboys -10 v. Denver Broncos

For whatever reason, big favorites are covering a lot this year.  And, Denver's morale has to be reeling from the Von Miller trade.

 

Cleveland Browns +2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland's defense (3rd overall), prevails in a hard-nosed close game in which Cleveland's number 1 rushing offense closes the game out in the fourth.

Baltimore Ravens -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

Baltimore bounces back from the Bengals trouncing, or, at least I hope.

New York Giants +3 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Not taking the west coast team travelling east and playing the 1:00 game.

Atlanta Falcons +6 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Another game with dreadful offenses (Atlants 24th; New Orleans 30th).  Just going to take the points in this situation.

Jacksonville Jaguars +14 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Buffalo wins this, and pretty easily.  I just think they coast in the second half.

New England Patriots -3 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

I hate taking road favorites, but they do win sometimes, and home-field advantage is not what it used to be.  Plus, if New England plays like they did last week, P.J. Walker doesn't have a chance, unless .... McCaffrey is actually healthy.

Los Angeles Chargers -1 at Philadelphia Eagles

This is basically a pick 'em, and in those situations I pick the better team, especially in the 4 pm slot.  The Chargers 32nd ranked rush defense scares me, but their 7th ranked passing offense should more than compensate.

San Francisco 49ers -3 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray's status makes this pick tough, but I am guessing that Murray does not play.  Colt McCoy is still in the league?

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Green Bay Packers

Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha!  How many games does the NFL suspend Aaron Rodgers for?  My guess is none, but it should be at least 3.  Seriously, can somebody tell me the difference between Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers?

Los Angeles Rams -7 v. Tennessee Titans

No Derrick Henry does mean more passing opportunities for A.J. Brown, who is great.  Except, A.J., meet Jalen Ramsey.

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

I am just hoping that Justin Fields keeps progressing.

Big Bet

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Green Bay Packers

Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha!  How many games does the NFL suspend Aaron Rodgers for?  My guess is none, but it should be at least 3.

Honestly, I couldn't figure out who should be my big bet.  And since Aaron Rodgers has already screwed both my fantasy teams (although Derek Carr is a more than adequate backup in one), he might as well have his team screw me over in my picks, too.

Bye Week:  Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Football Team

Last Week's Record:  6-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  65-57

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($555)

Year to Date Winnings (Losses):  ($460)

Picks of the Week

 

Another winning week!!!!  I could get use to this.  Hopefully I can keep it moving.  No analysis this week, as I am travelling with an appointment soon this morning, so just going to get this done and hope.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Arizona Cardinals -6 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Whoops - Even without Davante Adams!

Chicago Bears +4 v. San Francisco 49ers

I don't like this.  I am only picking the Bears because Matt Nagy is out.

Miami Dolphins +14 at Buffalo Bills

Atlanta Falcons -3 v. Carolina Panthers

  

Clevelan Browns -4 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Soooo tempted to go Pittsburgh here.

Cincinnati Bengals -11 at New York Jets

Really, the Bengals are a double-digit road favorite?  And I am taking them?

Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Wouldn's shock me if Detroit snuck in a win here.

Los Angeles Rams -16 at Houston Texans

Jackonville Jaguars +3 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks on a short week.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 1/2 v. New England Patriots

Also my suicide pool pick.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

New Orleans on a short week.

Denver Broncos -3 1/2 v. Washington Football Team

Will Tua Tagavailoa be a QB for Washington next week.

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Minnesota Vikings

Hoping that Dak Prescott is starting.

New York Giants +10 at Kansas City Chiefs

Is KC reeling this much?  Tyrann Mathieu said that Kansas City has the most toxic fanbase in the country.  Sounds like he was smoking something toxic.

Big Bet

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

New Orleans on a short week.

And, they just aren't that good anyway.

Bye Week:  Baltimore Ravens, Las Vegas Raiders

Last Week's Record:  7-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  59-48

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $190

Year to Date Winnings (Losses):  $95

Picks of the Week

WooHoo!!!  Fantastic week!  Only two consecutive losses on Sunday night and Monday night kept this from being astronomically huge!!!!  See if we can make three winning weeks in a row!!!  Not much analysis as I am doing this late Saturday night due to the fact that I am 4 hours behind my normal Eastern Time Zone, so NFL starts at 9:00 a.m. for me tomorrow.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Denver Broncos + 1 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

I thought that all of the injuries to Cleveland would make a difference, but nope, the home team on a short week strikes again.

Carolina Panthers -3 at New York Giants

Carolina's defense is the difference, as they are 3rd in total defense and 6th in scoring defense.  The Giants best defensive stat is that they rank 20th in 3rd down conversion percentage.

Atlanta Falcons -2 at Miami Dolphins

Great - two consecutive visiting favorites.  Ugh.  But Atlanta is well-rested.

Green Bay Packers -8 1/2 v. Washington Football Team

Would feel more comfortable with 6 1/2 points, but Washington's defense, ranked 30th in total defense and 32nd in scoring defense, is in for an onslaught.  (Seriously, another road favorite?)

  

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati's defense has played great this year, but their offense leaves a lot to be desired.  I finally get to select a home team!

New England Patriots -7 v. New York Jets

Keep the home streak rolling (+New England is my survivor pool pick!)

Kansas City Chiefs -4 at Tennessee Titans

Kansas City may have turned the corner last week, but they only have the 27th best rushing defense to try to stop Derrick Henry.  But, Tennessee is on a short week.

Chicago Bears +11 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Way too many points considring all of the injuries to Tampa Bay.

Los Angeles Rams -16 v. Detroit Lions

This line is ridiculous, but most lines that look way to high, sometimes coas too many people into thaking the underdog.  Not for me on this game.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 at Philadelphia Eagles

Great playing by the Raiders last week.  They keep it rolling this week.

Arizona Cardinals -18 v. Houston Texans

The Texans are AWFUL!

Indianapolis Colts +3 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Indianapolis keeps this one close.

New Orleans Saints -4 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Seattle wasn't playing all that well with Russell Wilson in the lineup.  Now, they are worse.  Will Jacob Eason gets some run.

Big Bet

Las Vegas Raiders -3 at Philadelphia Eagles

Great playing by the Raiders last week.  They keep it rolling this week.

The Raiders return home without Jon Gruden.  Good for them!

Bye Week:  Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers

Last Week's Record:  10-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  52-42

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $710

Year to Date Winnings (Losses):  ($95)

Picks of the Week

 

First winning week last week. Hopefully it is the start of a streak!!!  I am starting a bit late, honestly because I was watching last night's Saturday Night Live, so not too much time for analysis if I am going to get out to watch the Bears/Packers!  Of course, this means I am NOT watching the dumpster-fire that is Dolphins-Jaguars.  This is the first week of byes, so each game is more important in developing a winning streak than usual.  Although I am still 0-5 on the big bet.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Philadelphia Eagles +7 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thank goodness Philly's staff believes in anlytics, otherwise I would have pushed this bet instead of winning.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. Miami Dolphins (in London)

Jacksonville always outperforms in London.  Well, almost always.

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 at Chicago Bears

Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears almost as much as the McCaskey family.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Both putrid offenses, by Cincinnati's defense is middling.  The same cannot be said of Detroit's.

  

Kansas City Chiefs -6 1/2 at Washington Football Team

Both defenses are horrible (32nd and 31st respectively in scoring defense).  The best defensive unit is Washington's rush defense, and Kansas City doesn't rely on the run that much anyway.  Only because I just took 2 consecutive road favorites am I making it 3.

Carolina Panthers +2 v. Minnesota Vikings

I am not making it 4 consecutive road favorites, especially with Carolina's defense (1st in passing defense, 2nd in total defense, 3rd in scoring defense, and 8th in rushing defense.  They are also 1st in 3rd down conversion percentage defense.)

Indianapolis Colts -10 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Two 1-4 teams in a battle of horrific failutres.  I know I am giving up 10 1/2 points, but the Texans only score 17.8 on average.  Indy can score 27 on this Texans defense.

New York Giants +7 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

West coast team travelling east playing the early game.  

Baltimore Ravens -3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

I would have loved to have seen this game in the 4:00 slot.  Betting, again, against the west coast team travelling east playing the early game.

Arizona Cardinals +3 at Cleveland Browns

Yes Kareem Hunt is really good.  But, Kareem Hunt is much  better when the Browns have Nick Chubb.  Chbb's absence might affect the number 1 rushing team in the NFL.

Las Vegas Raiders +5 at Denver Broncos

Most teams play poorly in the face of adversity.  I think playing on the raod actually helps the Raiders.  I look for Carl Nassib and his position-mates Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue have a great game rushing Teddy Two Gloves.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Dallas is clicking on all cylinders, even defense where Trevon Diggs leads the NFL in interceptions.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 v. Seattle Seahawks

All you need to know is that Seattle brought in Blake Bortles for a tryout this week.  Didn't sign him, so Jake Luton is the backup.

Buffalo Bills -5 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

The Bills are cruising on offense  as the highest scoring team in the league.  But, they are also the best team in the league at preventing the opponent from scoring.

Big Bet

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Dallas is clicking on all cylinders, even defense where Trevon Diggs leads the NFL in interceptions.

I don't like taking road teams for my big bet, but road teams are covering at an unprecedented rate this year.  In fact, most casinos have moved the traditional 2 1/2 to 3 points given to the home team down to 1 1/2.

And, for personal reasons, I am riding with someone named Elliott, with 2 "L"s and 2 "T"s.

Bye Week:  Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers

Last Week's Record:  10-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  42-38

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $175

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($805) 

Picks of the Week

A winning week according to the record, but the damn big bet gets me again.  I am 0-4 on the big bet this year.  UGH!  I have to catch a flight in a couple of hours, so no analysis for the most part, just picks.  Remember, first game today is in England, so it starts EARLY!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams -2 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Since home teams are 0-3 so far on Thursday nights, why not just pick the best team?

New York Jets +2 1/2 "at" Atlanta Falcons (in London)

Take points in an awful game.

Washington Football Team +2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Green Bay Packers -23 at Cincinnati Bengals

Detroit Lions +10 at Minnesota Vikings

  

Pittsburgh Steelers +1 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Just a gut feeling.

Tennessee Titans -4 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10 v. Miami Dolphins

New England Patriots -8 at Houston Texans

Las Vegas Raiders -5 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Arizona Cardinals -5 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Dallas Cowboys -7 v. New York Giants

Buffalo Bills +3 at Kansas City Chiefs

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Indianapolis Colts

Big Bet

New England Patriots -8 at Houston Texans

So on short weeks, like Thursday nights, always pick the home team.  That hasn't works, so I switched it up this week and picked the road team.  For my big bet, always pick a team at home, and if you do pick a team on the road, never select a road favorite (this is for the big bet, not for all road favorites).  So, I am going to switch that up this week to break my big bet 0-4 streak. 

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  32-32

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($35)

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($980) 

Picks of the Week

 

Another 8-8 week snakebitten by the Pick of the Week.  Seriously, how on earth did the Raiders let that one falter, only to win on a FG in overtime.  They easily could have had a TD on that last drive too, but I get it, take the guaranteed points.  UGH!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Home teams are 0-4 against the spread this year.  Yuch.  At least Cincy squeaking by worked in my suicide pool.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions

I am only making this pick because I think that Offensive Coordinator Bill Lazor might actually be calling the plays this game.  No official announcement on that front has been made, but if Nagy makes the calls, this is almost for sure a guaranteed loss.

New York Giants +7 at New Orleans Saints

The Saints are definitely the better team, but the Giants have played pretty close in their three losses.  The Saints are coming off a pretty good-sized wins, which means in Jameis Winston's up-and-down career, he is due for a down game.  Gimme the points.

Philadelphia Eagles +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City's offense is still prolific, but the Eagles defense is performing way better than the Chiefs' defense this year to date.  All 3 of KC's games have been within 6 points, and that game was a loss for the Chiefs.  Eagles on a short week could hurt, but I like them getting a full touchdown rather than 6 and the hook.

Buffalo Bills -17 1/2 v. Houston Texans

This spread is preposterous, especially for an NFL game.  The easy bet is on the Texans.  But, there is always one bet that seems way too easy, so you should go the opposite direction.  I think this is that game.

  

Carolina Panthers +4 at Dallas Cowboys

My mind initially saaw the Cowboys as the pick.  But, this Carolina defense only gives 224 yards (1st), 146 passing yards (1st), 45 rushing yards (1st) and 10 points (2nd) per game.  I expect the Cowboys will exceed those averages, but their pedestrian defense (26th total defense, 31st passing defense, 13th in scoring defense) will be what lets them down and keeps this game close.  Plus, the Cowboys are coming off a short week.

Cleveland Browns -1 at Minnesota Vikings

This pick is based upon my belief that Dalvin Cook, although playing, will not be 100%.  Another key is Cleveland's 2nd best rushing offense versus Minnesota's 20th ranked rushing defense.

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

In what looks to be the dreariest game of the day, I will take points.  Why?  Indianapolis' top-ranked unit is its passing defense (13th), and Miami's tap-ranked unit is its passing defense (19th).  Every other unit is worse, offensively and defensively.  Ugh.

Tennessee Titans -6 at New York Jets

New York's offense is putrid (30th total offense, 30th passing offense, 29th rushing offense, 32nd scoring offense).  Couple that with a middling rush defense (15th) against Derrick Henry, it's Tennessee.

Washington Football Team -1 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

The 29th (Washington) and 30th (Atlanta) scoring defenses in the NFL.  With that being a horrible draw, which team scores more?  Washington is 19th whereas Atlanta is 29th.  I'll take Washington.

Los Angeles Rams -4 v. Arizona Cardinals

Statistically, the Cardinals are better, especially offensively.  But, these two high-flying offenses (Arizona 1st in scoring offense; Los Angeles 3rd), will see this game decided by defense, possibly with Jalen Ramsey making a big stop.

Seattle Seahawks +2 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Seattle is a shocking 1-2 whereas San Francisco is a very good 2-1, losing only to a last-second Aaron Rodgers drive last week.   Seattle's defense has been abysmal this year so far, but San Francisco's offense is slightly below average in everything, so I'll take the points.

Green Bay Packers -6 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Both defenses match-up favorably in this game, which is saying something since Green Bay was torched early by Jameis Winston.  Pittsburgh's offense is helmed by the corpse of Ben Roethlisberger, whereas Aaron Rodgers has shaken off that week 1 loss.

Baltimore Ravens pick 'em at Denver Broncos

Denver has the opportunity to quiet those opponents that are complaining that Denver's 3-0 means nothing because they haven't played anybody (Giants, Jaguars, Jets).  The Broncos defense is good (2nd overall, 3rd passing, 2nd rushing, 1st scoring), but A LOT of that can be attributed to their opponents' offensive ineptness.  Baltimore is first in rushing and 8th in rushing defense.  I like Baltimore's chances on the road, but I wish they were getting a point or two.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 1/2 at New England Patriots

They over-hyped game of the week because of Brady's return, but I expect this game to not be close.  Although Mac Jones has the 1 win from all rookie QBs this year, it came at the expense of the Jets, and another rookie QB.  To prove that Rob Gronkowski's rib injury means nothing, I predict Brady throws a touchdown to Cameron Brate.

Las Vegas Raiders +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

This game should be a fun one to wach as the Raiders are 1st in the NFL in passing offense and the Chargers are 4th in passing offense.  But, the Raiders are better at converting points from their yards (6th in the NFL versus 19th).  The defenses are fairly similar (13th versus 16th in total defense), except the Chargers are dead last in rushing defense and 28th in third-down conversion defense.  I actually typed all of this before I mentally made my pick, so I talked myself into the Raiders.

Big Bet

Tennessee Titans -6 at New York Jets

I hate picking road teams for my big bet, but given how awfule I have been at my guarantee, I have to change it up.  Missing stud receivers only means more Derrick Henry, with a surprise splash of Anthony Firkser.

Last Week's Record:  8-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  23-25

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($245) 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($945)

Picks of the Week

  

At one point last wekend, things were looking amazing; 5-5 after the early games, and sitting at 3-1 in the late games, with a team driving for me to be 4-0.  Then, it all fell apart.  1-3 in those games, and boy did that hurt.  Oh well, we are now learning how this season might be progressing, although there are still some really big question marks about some teams.  Let's hope I answer those questions correctly this week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans +8 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

I hated this pick when I made it, but if you always take the home team on a short week, ultimately you will end up ahead.

Chicago Bears +7 at Cleveland Browns

Will the Bears offense experience a bump with rookie Justin Fields at the helm?  Probably so.  Keeps this game close.

Baltimore Ravens -8 at Detroit Lions

The Lions just don't have enough firepower, and as we saw last week, the Ravens do, even with all of their injuries.  And, Detroit is on a short week having played Monday night.

Atlanta Falcons +3 at New York Giants

When two really bad teams play against each other, I like to take the points.  Tougher decision on this one because the Giants have looked borderline respectable, but I'll still take the points.

New England Patriots -3 v. New Orleans Saints

If I get this one wrong, it is because the Saints are going to bounce between great and awful, so I just have to figure out when the bounce will occur.  My guess is they don't bounce back against a Belichick coached team.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 v. Cincinnati Bengals

The battle of the two worst offensive lines in the NFL.

Tennessee Titans -5 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

We don't even know which quarterback will start for Indianapolis after Carson Wentz's one-on-one game with Allen Iverson (he broke both ankles.)  But we do know that Tennessee bounced back bigly last week.  They continue to roll.

Buffalo Bills -7 v. Washongton Football Team

Bills are out to prove that week 1 was a delusion.  Played great last week, and although this week should be tougher, still win by 10-14.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Take the over first and foremost.  Secondly, Kansas City NEEDS this win after last weeks unexpected loss to Baltimore.

Arizona Cardinals -7 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

I am inventing a new caveat to the bet against the west coast team travelling east and playing the early game; the addition is "unless they are playing a team with a rookie quarterback AND a rookie coach.  Oh, wait, Arizona is in the mountain time zone.  Then, easy pick.

New York Jets +10 1/2 at Denver Broncos

The Jets are not good,, but they do have some actual NFL players.  So, I'll take the 10 1/2.  Denver is my pick in my suicide pool, though.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

No Tuaniganinualepola this week, and although Jackby Brissett is an accomplished NFL backup, he doesn't move the needle offensively.  I think the Raiders win convincingly.

Seattle Seahawks -2 at Minnesota Vikings

Seattle is still trying to figure out how they lost last week.

Los Angeles Rams +1 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Easily the best game of the week.  A potentially great offense getting points at home.  Brady always rises to the occasion for big games, but for him, this isn't necessarily a big game.

Green Bay Packers +3 at San Francisco 49ers

Green Bay on a short week, but at least they get the Sunday night game.  I feel that week 2 Green Bay is way more indicative of what they Packers can do versus Week 1 Green Bay.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I still don't think we know exactly what either of these teams are going to be, but I feel that if Dallas can run a little bit, they should be able to win this game.

  

Big Bet

Las Vegas Raiders -3 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

No Tuaniganinualepola this week, and although Jackby Brissett is an accomplished NFL backup, he doesn't move the needle offensively.  I think the Raiders win convincingly.

Another reason to type Tuanigamanualepola!  Injured Dolphins team not going to cover against a Raiders team that is playing as good as anyone.

Last Week's Record:  7-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  15-17

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($455) 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($700)

Picks of the Week

 

Last week could have gone horribly.  As it was, with the vig and losing the big bet put me in a hole to start, but winning the last 4 games of the weekend brought me up to .500.  So there is that.  Let's see if I learned anything.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Washington Football Team -3 1/2 v. New York Giants

So again I took the home team on Thursday, this time because it was a short week.  Lost this one, but this theory will win out more Thursdays than it loses.

Chicago Bears -1 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bears showed some life in the first half on the road against the Rams.  This one is at home and the Bengals are not the Rams.

Denver Broncos -6 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Teddy Two Gloves versus Trevor Lawrence.  Too bad for the Jaguars that everyone else has to play as well.  And thank you to the Broncos for being in the Mountain Time Zone and not the Pacific, otherwise I would be forced to pick Jacksonville.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

The Bills are better, but they did not look good last week.  So, they either learned their lesson that they have to actually play every game, or, they may have regressed.  Although probably the former, I'll take points on the home team in a divisional rivalry.

Houston Texans +13 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

So Houston may not be the worst team in the league.  Cleveland wins this game, probably easily, but 13 is A LOT of points this early in the season when we haven't quite figured everything out yet.  Cleveland is my pick in my suicide pool, which lost a good number of people week 1 who selected Buffalo and Green Bay.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. San Francisco 49ers

Pacific coast team travelling east and playing in the early game.  Plus, Philly looked better than I thought last week - although San Fran was cruising for a while too!

Carolina Panthers +3 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

I am here for the Jameis Winston era in New Orleans, so long as Sean Payton keeps allowing him to fling it.  But, as in the Miami-Buffalo game, I'll take home points this early in the season in an intra-divisional game.

Indianapolis Colts +4 v. Los Angeles Rams

I think the Rams make the Super Bowl this year, but traveling east to play in the early game, the week after playing the Sunday Night game.  They could still win, but don't cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Pittsburgh showed us their defense is still a traditional Steelers defense.  And the Raiders won a hard-fought overtime game against the Ravens last week.  So, not only is LV traveling east to play early, they are on a short week after playing an entire additional quarter on Monday night.  I'll take Pittsburgh.

New York Jets +5 1/2 v. New England Patriots

With two rookie QBs, the smart play is to bet on Belichick.  But, I think this game will be close, so I'll take points at home.

Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

Arizona was easily the most impressive team in Week 1.

Atlanta Falcons -12 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Atlanta is bad.  Tampa should be good.  But that is a lot of points to be giving up.

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

This is possibly an overreaction to week 1's game against the Buccaneers.

Seattle Seahawks -6 v. Tennessee Titans

Seattle are serious contenders, and at home.  Tennessee was worked by Arizona last week, how do they rebound?  I believe with a second loss in a a row.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Short, exhausting week for the Ravens after their Monday Night overtime loss to the Raiders.  Their reward?  Trying to keep up with the Chiefs' offense.

Green Bay Packers -11 v. Detroit Lions

Aaron Rodgers looked horrible last week.  No better bounce back than the Lions, who looked spry against the 49ers.  Spry doesn't mean they are good.

  

Big Bet

Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

Arizona was easily the most impressive team in Week 1.

Is it too early to start the Kyler Murray for MVP chants?  Of course it is, but 21-32 for 289 and 4 TDs, plus a rushing TD at Tennessee was a great start.

Last Week's Record:  8-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  8-8

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($245) 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($245)

Picks of the Week

We are back to the beginning of a new football season!!!  Hooray!!!  And, if yesterday's college games are any indication, we don't know anything.  That is often true about the first few weeks of any season, as we really don't know how new players - rookies or otherwise - will fare on their new teams, how new coaches and coaching staffs will gel with their players, or how critical players losses will affect an established team.  The good thing is, neither do the actuaries that set the betting lines.  Key point - the first 3 weeks or so are the best time to take advantage.  Let's hope we can do that!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

So, my undefeated season will bnot come to fruition.  I guess the rumors of Dak's shoulder still causing him problems was overrated.  Still, I had Tampa Bay in my survivor pool, so I'll take it.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles 

Both teams project to be dismal this year.  I initially thought about taking the points, but I will settle for the home team and hope they actually use their running back, Mike Davis.

Carolina Panthers -3 1/2 v. New York Jets

Rookie quarterback starting game 1 versus the man he replaced.  Panthers have more weapons.

Washington Football Team -2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

In Fitzy I trust.  But seriously, the reason is the old adage, never bet on the west coast team travelling east and playing the early game.  Historically the home east coast team in this situation covers 2/3 of the time.  Also, Washington has the best defensive line in the league.

Detroit Lions +8 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

I hate this pick.  I hate it, I hate it, I hate.  But, as I stated in the preamble, we don't know anything yet about this season, so I will stick the the betting rule that led me to select Washington earlier.

Buffalo Bills -6 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh has 5 new offensive lineman.  Bills rookie Gregory Rousseau could have 2 or 3 sacks this game.  Plus, Pittsburgh couldn't get pressure on Buffalo last year, and they are essentially the same team.

Seattle Seahawks -3 at Indianapolis Colts

Seattle is the one west coast team that thrives covering the spread when playing the early game on the east coast (and yes, Indianapolis is in the eastern time zone).  I don't like giving up the points here, but the Colts don't really know how to play with Carson Wentz yet, either.

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Imagine what Joe Burrow could have done if Cincinnati had drafted him Penei Sewell to protect him.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Houston Texans

Tyrod Taylor often surprises, but this Texans team is hideous.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Arizona Cardinals

J.J. Watt is not the type of defensive upgrade that would lead a team to stopping Derrick Henry.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Nobody knows what is going to happen here with these 2 Alabama quarterbacks, so I will take the points.

Denver Broncos -3 at New York Giants

I just love rooting for Teddy Two Gloves.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at New Orleans

Has any player ever gone on a revenge tour against their own team?  If not, well now here it is.  Aaron Rodgers' Revenge Tour against the Green Bay Packers.  Starts today.

Cleveland Browns +5 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City's revamped offensive line versus Cleveland's rushers.  I'll take the points, even though I think Kansas City wins.

Los Angeles Rams -8 v. Chicago Bears

With Justin Fields in the game, I might take 8.  Not with Andy Dalton.  Let's see if Matt Stafford likes all of his shiny new toys on offense.

Las Vegas Raiders +4 v. Baltomore Ravens

Getting points at home in a big prime time game?  Yes, please.  Especially since we don't exactly know how the Ravens running back situation is going to play out, especially since Latavious Murray likely isn't in game shape yet.

  

Big Bet

Buffalo Bills -6 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh has 5 new offensive lineman.  Bills rookie Gregory Rousseau could have 2 or 3 sacks this game.  Plus, Pittsburgh couldn't get pressure on Buffalo last year, and they are essentially the same team.

Josh Allen's campaign to finish third in the MVP voting begins today.

Last Week's Record:  0-0

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0
Year-to-Date Record:  0-0

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): 

Olympics - Tokyo 2020 - Day 15

Day 15 - August 4 , 2021

An actual real on time post today!!!

The host Japanese had a surprising win in women's basketball as Saki Hayashi hit a 3-pointer with 15.2 seconds left to lift Japan over Belgium 86-85 and book a trip to the semi-finals.  The host bump is real!!!

Along the same surprising lines, Qatar's Cherif Younousse and Ahmed Tijan defeated Italy 2-0 in beach volleyball to book their own trip to the semi-finals, where the Russian Olympic Committee awaits, with Latvia and the overwhelming favorits from Norway in other semi.

In a very exciting game, Argentina's women's field hockey trailed India 1-0, only to come back and win 2-1 to advance to the finals, where they will play the Netherlands.  Argentina will play Great Britain for the bronze medal.

Great Britain had a bit more to celebrate on the water, where Hannah Mills and Eilidh McIntyre won gold in the women's 2 person dinghy 470.  It is her second consecutive gold in the event, and third consecutive medal as she won silver in London in 2012.

On the mat, the USA's Tamyra Mensah Stock defeated Nigeria's Blessing Oborududu 4-1 to capture gold in the freestyle 68 kg final.  Her reaction to winning gold may also have won this Olympics, as she is proud to win as the first female African-American to win gold, then stating if she can do this, she can do anything, like maybe open up a gym to teach other girls how to wrestle!  This is why we celebrate firsts like this.

On the men's side, David Taylor III is fast becoming a world favorite for his streak scoring, and his come-from behind victories.  Today he earned a spot in the 86 kg final  by defeating Ali Shabanau of Belarus 11-0 in the 1/8 final, and San Marino's Myles Amine 12-2 in the quarterfinal.  He looks to be a strong contender for gold.

On a different mat, in the men's +109kg category (the superheavyweights), Georgia's Lasha Talakhadze cemented his position as the world's strongest man by not just winning gold, but setting a world record of 223 kg in the snatch, a world record of 265 kg in the clean-and-jerk, and of course, a world record in the combined of 488 kg.  Iran's Ali Davoudi finished second to win silver, and Syria's Man Asaad won bronze.

In a much wider viewed venue, track and field continued with some great races.  Kenya continued its superiority in the mens 800 meters with Emmanuel Kipkurui Korir winning gold and Ferguson Cheruiyot Rotich winning silver.  Polan's' Patryk Dobek won the bronze.  

In the women's 3000 meter steeplechase, Kenya won another medal, with Hyvin Kiyeng winning the bronze, being beaten only by Uganda's Peruth Chemutai (gold) and America's Courtney Frerichs (silver).

More silver for the United States in the women's 400 meter hurdles in the form of Dalilah Muhammad, only her silver was accompanied by a gold medal, world record setting performance by Sydney McLauglin!  Muhammad also set the world record.  Femke Bol of the Netherland's captured bronze.

And in the last race of the day, the men's 200 meter, Canada's Andre de Grasse earned a long-awaited individual gold medal (to go with his bronze in the 100 meters), outdistacing a charging Kenneth Bednarek of the United States (who won silver) and the USA's Noah Lyles (who earned bronze).  Seventeen-year old American Erriyon Knighton finished fourth, but boy does he look like he has a future!

Athlete of the Day - Lasha Talakhadze, Weightlifting, Georgia

Sets 3 World Records in earning gold, and the title "Strongest Man in the World"

Olympic Term of the Day:  Snatch - In weightlifting, it is one of the two types of lifts (with clean-and-jerk), in which the objective is to lift the barbell from the ground to overhead in one continuous motion. 

Olympic Events Watched:  Athletics (Track & Field), Beach Volleyball, Diving, Field Hockey, Marathon Swimming, Soccer, Volleyball, Water Polo, Weightlifting, 

USA Potential Closing Ceremony Flag-Bearer (Alphabetically):  Mu Athing, Caleb Dressel, Phillip Dutton, Brady Ellison, Robert Finke, Adeline Gray, Lee Kiefer, Katie Ledecky, Sunisa Lee, Sydney McLaughlin, Tamyra Mensah Stock, Kelsey Plum, Brittany Reese, Xander Schauffele, Gabrielle Thomas, Anastasija Zolotic