WE ARE BACK BABY!!! The NFL, and NFL gambling!!! The time when Thursday, Sunday and Monday (and the occasional Friday and Saturday) are consumed by professional football (and bets). And now is also the time when every NFL fanbase is overly excited about their chances of winning a Super Bowl, and every gambler is overly excited about their chances of winning a mint! (Sense a theme, here?!) Anyway, we love this time of year, and you can expect this weekly column to be posted throughout the season.
For those new to WeMakeItRain, I will select each game, placing a $100 wager on all but one game. That game, the Big Bet, will be for $250, and is obviously the one I think is the biggest guarantee of the week (yeah, right?!). All picks are against the spread, and their will be no over/unders in this column until the playoffs (when the number of games is fewer). Anyway, let's get straight to the picks!!!
Dallas Cowboys + 7 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
Yes Philadelphia is the defending champion. Yes, they are the favorites to win again this year. Yes, they return a whole lot of talent on offense. But, they lost some talent on defense, especially in the secondary. And although I expect them to win, I also expect Dallas to play better than a lot of people expect. Sure they lost Micah Parsons. But the Dallas offense is going to score a lot of points, especially with the addition of George Pickens who, although nowhere near as productive as he thinks he is good, is very talented and will take a lot of pressure from defensive coverage away from CeeDee Lamb. Add in Javonte Williams who is only 25 years old, and the Cowboys WILL score. This game seems like a back-door cover to me. [Ed. Note - So it wasn't a back-door cover, as Dallas played way better than even I thought, I'll take the W!]
Los Angeles Chargers + 3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs in Sao Paolo, Brazil
This game is being played in the world's 4th most populous metropolitan area, and the largest in the western hemisphere, and the Brazilian city gets a similarly huge quarterback battle between Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Add to the fact that this is an early-season divisional game, and we could be looking at a classic tonight. The Chargers loss of Tackle-extraordinaire Rashawn Slater will hurt theme more-and-more as the season progresses, but for now, everybody is fresh, and I expect both teams to spread the ball around to their entire offenses. I don't know that Los Angeles will win, but I expect this game to be close.
Atlanta Falcons + 1 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I hate taking road favorites in intra-divisional games, but this game started out as Tamps -2 1/2, which means the early money all floated to Atlanta. So, I might usually entertain going against the early money (lots of reasons for that). And, although I expect this Tampa team to be explosive offensively, especially with the addition of Emeka Egbuka, the injury to Tristan Wirfs is HUGE. Tampa is overall more talented and should win the division, I will just take the points at home.
New York Jets + 2 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
OK, I get it. This seems ridiculous. Pittsburgh has playoff aspirations and the Jets are, well the Jets. But, we always have some surprises opening week, and Justin Fields - the Jets quarterback - did lead Pittsburgh to a 4-2 record when Russell Wilson was out last week. Add to that the fact that Breece Hall might be auditioning for a trade (Chicago Bears, anyone?), and this Jets offense could keep it close. Plus, the Jets defense has Quinnen Williams on the defensive line and Sauce Gardner at corner, as well as possibly the most underrated defender in the NFL, Jamien Sherwood, at linebacker. The big question for Pittsburgh is can DK Metcalf turn an aging-superstar - who shall remain nameless - back into his former self? Gimme the points. And, I have a big feeling I will regret this pick.
Miami Dolphins +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
This pick is as much about the Colts QB position as anything else. Daniel Jones being selected over Anthony Richardson as the starter says a lot about the Colts decision to draft Richardson 4th overall than anything else. Miami, on the other hand, looks flawed, but always plays better with a healthy Tuanigamanuolepola, and he is healthy at least for the start of the season. Tyreek Hill has to have a better season than last year, and the return of pass rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelyn Phillips can be enormous for a defense that also brought back Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Carolina Panthers +3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
I am bullish on the Panthers, as Bryce Young was exponentially better the last half of last year than prior (imagine that, a player DEVELOPING?!), and they brought in Tetairoa McMillan as a weapon on the outside. I am equally bearish on the Jaguars, and I feel this might be the year that the Trevor Lawrence (Experience/Experiment?) comes to an end in Jacksonville.
New York Giants + 5 1/2 at Washington Commanders
Man, those Giants sure had a great pre-season, and they seem so loose with Jameis Winston leading the way. Hell, even as a backup QB that guy should be the captain. And Malik Nabors might just be enough weapons for an experienced Russell Wilson at quarterback. With superstar Dexter Lawrence around to take some pressure off some amazing looking young pass rushers like Brian Burns with Kayvon Thibodeaux and rookie Abdul Carter SHOULD (well Burns isn't exactly young). Jayden Daniels is amazing, and Deebo Samuel added to a wide receiving corps that already has Terry McLaurin should do well in the long run, but week 1 can be weird, and Daniels may not always have enough time to reach his wide receivers. Washington still wins, but close.
Arizona Cardinals -6 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
The Saints very well could be fighting for the number 1 draft pick next year. Six and a half points is a lot on the road, but gotta take some chances. The question for Arizona is, as always, is Kyler Murray actually any good, or are we as sports fans punished by not getting to see his baseball career?
Cleveland Browns + 5 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
How many times have we been surprised by Joe Flacco keeping a team in a game that they have no business being in? And although there are no stars, the Browns do have a plethora of running backs and receivers from which to choose. Expect a Cedric Tillman breakout. With Myles Garrett being Myles Garret, Mason Graham will have a great opportunity to produce from the interior of the defensive line. And if Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome can be what scouts think they can, this defense could be legit. That being said, Cincinnati is the more talented team, especially on offense, and should win this game. But Cleveland will keep it close, especially at home. Remember I hate road favorites in intra-divisional games.
New England Patriots -2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders
Lots of hype with the Raiders and Ashton Jeanty, and with Geno Smith coming over, this team finally has a QB upon whom they can depend. But, this axiom is important, west coast teams traveling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot fail to cover about 2/3rds of the time. Drake Maye had a great start to his career, and could really blossom this year, especially with rookie Trayveon Henderson running the ball and Stefon Diggs running routes. Taking the home team.
San Francisco 49ers -1 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
Once again, the dreaded road favorite in an intra-divisional game, but it is only 1 1/2 points - not too much. Especially since this Seahawks team overall is not very talented. Sure Jaxon Smith-Njigba is really good, and Kenneth Walker can be - when healthy - but just not on the same level as McCaffrey, George Kittle, Trent Williams, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Kyle Juszczyk and a possible breakout year for Ricky Pearsall. Gimme the Niners.
Denver Broncos -8 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
No non-Titans fan is as excited about Cam Ward's potential as a quarterback in the NFL than I am, excepting perhaps his family, but Tennessee just don't have the same talent Denver does. Bo Nix looks like a budding superstar, Courtland Sutton is an upper-echelon receiver, and on the other side of the ball Patrick Surtain II and Nik Bonitto are as good as anybody at their positions. Calvin Ridley will give some relief to Ward, but Denver is the class of this game.
Green Bay Packers -1 1/2 v. Detroit Lions
I, like most everyone else, might just be lowering Detroit's expectations because of the loss of Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson (to the Bears) and Defensive Coordinator Aaron Glenn (to the Jets), more importantly might be the losses of center Frank Ragnow (retirement) and Guard Kevin Zeitler (Tennessee Titans). But, with lots and lots of talent all over the field (St. Brown, Gibbs, Sewell, Hutchinson, Branch, et. al.) I have a feeling that the Lions will still be in the playoffs. However, the addition of Micah Parsons may just elevate the Packers from the playoffs to conference championship level. Being at home, I will take the Packers.
Houston Texans +3 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
Yes, I know that people consider the Rams Super Bowl contenders this year, but remember where we thought Houston could be last year, at least before Niko Collins was hurt. And now he is back. And I get more than a FG? Yes, please!
Baltimore Ravens -1 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
Let's be honest, I consider the Ravens the class of the AFC this year. Buffalo is right there with them, and this game is at home, but Jackson fresh off the insult - real or perceived - of Allen winning the MVP last year, and with the addition of Jaire Alexander into the defensive backfield as a corner, to team with safety Kyle Hamilton, this Ravens team might be its best of this iteration. Gotta start by winning this one on the road, or else they will have to travel on the road in January.
Chicago Bears +1 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
You already know what I think about road favorites in intra-divisional games. Add to that the new faces in the Bears coaching staff - not only Ben Johnson (HC) and Dennis Allen (DC) but also Eric Bienenmy (RB) - and the fact that a healthy Jaylon Johnson (IF he is healthy) is one of the few corners that can limit Justin Jefferson, and this might just be the perfect start for the Bears. Monday night at home and the possibility of taking out a division foe with an essentially rookie QB? And I am getting points? Thank you!
BIG BET:
Cleveland Browns + 5 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
How many times have we been surprised by Joe Flacco keeping a team in a game that they have no business being in? And although there are no stars, the Browns do have a plethora of running backs and receivers from which to choose. Expect a Cedric Tillman breakout. With Myles Garrett being Myles Garret, Mason Graham will have a great opportunity to produce from the interior of the defensive line. And if Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome can be what scouts think they can, this defense could be legit. That being said, Cincinnati is the more talented team, especially on offense, and should win this game. But Cleveland will keep it close, especially at home. Remember I hate road favorites in intra-divisional games.
I really like taking home teams as my Big Bet, so if I can find one getting points, usually better. That leaves out Houston and Carolina, since they are both on the road. I hate giving points on the road, so that leaves out San Francisco, which I also considered. Denver was another consideration, but 8 1/2 was just TOO many. So basically, my decision was between Cleveland and Tampa, and Cincinnati has been starting slow out of the gate recently, so, here we are ... Already hating my Big Bet.
Last Week Record: 0-0
Last Week Big Bet: 0-0
Year-to-Date Record: 0-0
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 0-0
Last Week Winnings (Losses): $0
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): $0
