Picks of the Week

 

Last week could have gone horribly.  As it was, with the vig and losing the big bet put me in a hole to start, but winning the last 4 games of the weekend brought me up to .500.  So there is that.  Let's see if I learned anything.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Washington Football Team -3 1/2 v. New York Giants

So again I took the home team on Thursday, this time because it was a short week.  Lost this one, but this theory will win out more Thursdays than it loses.

Chicago Bears -1 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bears showed some life in the first half on the road against the Rams.  This one is at home and the Bengals are not the Rams.

Denver Broncos -6 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Teddy Two Gloves versus Trevor Lawrence.  Too bad for the Jaguars that everyone else has to play as well.  And thank you to the Broncos for being in the Mountain Time Zone and not the Pacific, otherwise I would be forced to pick Jacksonville.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

The Bills are better, but they did not look good last week.  So, they either learned their lesson that they have to actually play every game, or, they may have regressed.  Although probably the former, I'll take points on the home team in a divisional rivalry.

Houston Texans +13 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

So Houston may not be the worst team in the league.  Cleveland wins this game, probably easily, but 13 is A LOT of points this early in the season when we haven't quite figured everything out yet.  Cleveland is my pick in my suicide pool, which lost a good number of people week 1 who selected Buffalo and Green Bay.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. San Francisco 49ers

Pacific coast team travelling east and playing in the early game.  Plus, Philly looked better than I thought last week - although San Fran was cruising for a while too!

Carolina Panthers +3 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

I am here for the Jameis Winston era in New Orleans, so long as Sean Payton keeps allowing him to fling it.  But, as in the Miami-Buffalo game, I'll take home points this early in the season in an intra-divisional game.

Indianapolis Colts +4 v. Los Angeles Rams

I think the Rams make the Super Bowl this year, but traveling east to play in the early game, the week after playing the Sunday Night game.  They could still win, but don't cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Pittsburgh showed us their defense is still a traditional Steelers defense.  And the Raiders won a hard-fought overtime game against the Ravens last week.  So, not only is LV traveling east to play early, they are on a short week after playing an entire additional quarter on Monday night.  I'll take Pittsburgh.

New York Jets +5 1/2 v. New England Patriots

With two rookie QBs, the smart play is to bet on Belichick.  But, I think this game will be close, so I'll take points at home.

Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

Arizona was easily the most impressive team in Week 1.

Atlanta Falcons -12 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Atlanta is bad.  Tampa should be good.  But that is a lot of points to be giving up.

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

This is possibly an overreaction to week 1's game against the Buccaneers.

Seattle Seahawks -6 v. Tennessee Titans

Seattle are serious contenders, and at home.  Tennessee was worked by Arizona last week, how do they rebound?  I believe with a second loss in a a row.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Short, exhausting week for the Ravens after their Monday Night overtime loss to the Raiders.  Their reward?  Trying to keep up with the Chiefs' offense.

Green Bay Packers -11 v. Detroit Lions

Aaron Rodgers looked horrible last week.  No better bounce back than the Lions, who looked spry against the 49ers.  Spry doesn't mean they are good.

  

Big Bet

Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

Arizona was easily the most impressive team in Week 1.

Is it too early to start the Kyler Murray for MVP chants?  Of course it is, but 21-32 for 289 and 4 TDs, plus a rushing TD at Tennessee was a great start.

Last Week's Record:  8-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  8-8

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($245) 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($245)

Picks of the Week

 

Well, after six consecutive winning weeks, I got annihilated last week.  Frankly, I am glad that it happened because I was just waiting for it to happen.  The real kicker, though, is that I lost my first Big Bet of the season.  Ouch.  Now that it is over with, hopefully I can get back to my winning ways.  As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

San Francisco 49ers +7 v. Green Bay Packers

I was OK with this since San Francisco was a home team on a short week, but honestly, I didn't realize Aaron Jones was returning for the Packers.  That was a big mistake.

Tennessee Titans -6 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

The biggest problem with the Bears is their offensive line, and they lose another starter (their third), this time it's Cody Whitehair to Covid-19.  Not good, especially since they have their immobile starter in Nick Foles.

 

Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Denver Broncos

The NFL's second ranked passing offense (and 6th overall), gets to host Denver, who has been playing better under Drew Lock, having won 3 of their last 4.  But, Atlanta's passing attack will be too much.

Seattle Seahawks -3 at Buffalo Bills

I am going against the "west coast team travelling east and playing the early game" adage because in the Russell Wilson Era, the Seahawks seem to be immune to this betting rule.

Baltimore Ravens -1 at Indianapolis Colts

This is the proverbial immovable object meets the irresistable force as the NFL's top-ranked rushing offense (Baltimore) meets the NFL's number one ranked total defense (and 2nd ranked rush defense) in the Colts.  The difference here will be that the Colts' offense has been paltry under Philip Rivers, whereas the Ravens defense is typically stout (2nd in scoring defense).

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 v. Houston Texans

I have no reason for this pick whatsoever.  This is a game that seems like Houston should win, so it seems to easy.

Kansas City Chiefs -10 v. Carolina Panthers

Second in scoring offense, and not even the return of Christian McCaffrey can keep this game close.

Minnesota Vikings -4 v. Detroit Lions

Detroit's rush defense (23rd in the NFL), is not going to be able to handle the whirling dervish that is Dalvin Cook.

Washington Football Team -3 v. New York Giants

Believe this or not, Washington's defense is 4th in total defense and 1st in passing defense.  Offense is not great, but it is still better than the Giants' offense (30th and 31st).  Plus, the Giants are on a short week.  Have I mentioned that I love typing Washington Football Team?!

Las Vegas Raiders -1 at Los Angeles Chargers

Ooooh, I get to pick a road favorite.  I am sooooo daring.

Arizona Cardinals -5 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

Everybody loves the first start of Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa last week as the Dolphins beat the Rams 28-17, but let's be serious, the offense struggled in that game.  Tagovailoa was 12/22 for only 93 yards and the leading rusher was Miles Gaskin with 47 yards.  

Pittsburgh Steelers -14 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Big number for a road favorite (counteracting the Raiders 1 point), but the Cowboys have scored 1 offensive touchdown since Dak Prescott went down.  I don't expect them to score too many against Pittsburgh's 6th ranked defense (total, passing, scoring - 5th in rushing defense).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 v. New Orleans Saints

Michael Thomas is back, but will it take a while for him to get back into rhythm.  Tampa Bay is clicking on offense, using everyone.   Even before Michael Thomas went out, New Orlease was slogging through their games, even their wins.  It does scare me that it is a short week for Tampa Bay, but hopefully the fact this is a night game minimizes that.

New England Patriots -9 1/2 at New York Jets

This is not your normal New England Patriots, but it is your normal New York Jets.  They are horrible.  I don't like this spread for a prime time game, especially given New England's 29th ranked scoring offense, but they took the Bills down to the wire in Buffalo last week - losing only due to a late Cam Newton fumble, and Damien Harris is turning into a really good running back.

Bye Week - Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles

Big Bet

Arizona Cardinals -5 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

Everybody loves the first start of Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa last week as the Dolphins beat the Rams 28-17, but let's be serious, the offense struggled in that game.  Tagovailoa was 12/22 for only 93 yards and the leading rusher was Miles Gaskin with 47 yards.  

I honestly see Arizona scoring a lot of points.  Yes, Miami has the number-1 ranked scoring defense, but they are 23rd in total defense, 20th in passing defense, and 21st in rushing defense).  So, Miami's defensive ranking is very much an anomaly.

Others that I thought about for this spot, Tennessee over Chicago, Kansas City over Carolina, and Washington over New York Giants.

Last Week's Record:  4-9-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  65-50-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($755)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1885