Picks of the Week

Just when I was getting back to normal, and little back-slide last week, but at least my big bet covered.  Thank goodness for the Packers, who are 9-1 against the spread this year.  Maybe I should just keep selecting them as my big bet (ugh!).

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots -7 at Atlanta Falcons

Home team/short week, right?  Not when the Pats are on a hot streak, and Atlanta is not only reeling, they are pretty boring too.

Chicago Bears +4 v. Baltimore Ravens

On the one hand, Lamar Jackson is 25-2 the first time he plays a team, and this is his first game against the Bears.  On the other hand, Jackson is suffering from an undisclosed illness and may not play today.  He missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, practiced Friday, but suffered more effects yesterday.  The good thing for Tyler Huntley is that Khalil Mack is having season-ending foot surgery.

Jacksonville Jaguars +6 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco looked great last Monday night in their victory over the Los Angeles Rams.  But, that is part of the problem. It was Monday night, which makes this a short week.  On top of that San Francisco is travelling east and playing the early game.  I'll take points in that situation.

Carolina Panthers -3 1/2 v. Washington Football Team

Washington played great in their victory last week over the Buccaneers, but their defense is still 28th in the league in scoring, whereas Carolina's is 6th.  I know this is the return of Cam Newton game, but to me most importantly is that Christian McCaffrey has a game under his belt.

Green Bay Packers -1 at Minnesota Vikings

Did you not read the stat above where the Packers are 9-1 against the spread?  They have a better record against the spread than their actual record.  Plus, Aaron Rodgers has had some practice this week to get used to playing with his sore toe.  Poor baby.

Cleveland Browns -13 v. Detroit Lions

I'll admit that this pick is completely counterintuitive, but there is a tendency to overvalue the immediate past game, in this case the Lions' tie with the Steelers and the Browns' blowout at the hands of the Patriots.  Because both of those games will be overvalued, all the public money will be on the Lions.  Mine will be on the return of Nick Chubb against Detroit's 30th ranked rush defense.  Oh yeah, and with Jared Goff out, Tim Boyle is starting.  Seriously go look at his college stats - 12 career touchdowns and 26 career interceptions.

Buffalo Bills -7 v. Indianapolis Colts

A lot of focus is going to be on Josh Allen and the team's 2nd best scoring offense, but this game will be won by Buffalo's defense which is 1st overall, 1st in scoring, 1st in 3rd down percentage, 2nd in passing defense, and 3rd in rush defense.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 v. New Orleans Saints

The ascendancy of Jalen Hurts continues.

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 at New York Jets

The Dolphins have the worst rushing offense in the league, but, the Jets have the worst total defense and scoring defense, the 31st passing defense and the 29th rushing defense.  Miami will find a way to score some points.

Tennessee Titans -10 v. Houston Texans

I am not even going to bother researching anything to do with the Texans and I am just taking Tennessee at home.

Las Vegas Raiders +1 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Both teams were shellacked last week.  In that scenario, I'll take points at home.  Expect lots of passing yards in this game with Las Vegas (2nd) and Cincinnati (8th) going against a mediocre pass defense in Las Vegas (12th) and a poor one in Cincinnati (24th).

Kansas City Chiefs -2 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

I try not to overvalue just one game, but I do feel like we have been waiting all year for the Chiefs to explode like they did last week.  Could that be a bit of a portent of something to come?  I believe so.  Especially with Tyron Smith and Amari Cooper out for testing positive for Covid (with Cooper missing at least two games - which means he was unvaccinated).

Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Arizona Cardinals

I don't like this pick, but it looks like Colt McCoy will be starting.  And, since Russell Wilson has one game under his belt after recovering from injury thanks to his rehab of 29 hours each day, perhaps he might be close to his former self.

Los Angeles Chargers -5 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Roethlisberger returns.  Is this actually a good thing or not for Pittsburgh?

New York Giants +11 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Giants are improving and Tampa Bay is sliding.  Perhaps Antonio Brown has meant more to this team than previously thought?  He is also out agains this week.

Big Bet

Kansas City Chiefs -2 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

I try not to overvalue just one game, but I do feel like we have been waiting all year for the Chiefs to explode like they did last week.  Could that be a bit of a portent of something to come?  I believe so.  Especially with Tyron Smith and Amari Cooper out for testing positive for Covid (with Cooper missing at least two games - which means he was unvaccinated).

Banking on Kansas City being on an upswing after last week's performance.

Bye Week:  Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Rams

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  79-71

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($130)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($615)