Picks of the Week

 

Last week was horrible.  Just atrocious.  The kind of week that makes it virtually impossible to have a winning season no matter how many winning weeks I put together.  The type of week that would make a lessser man give up making picks forever, or at least for the rest of the year.  I am not that lesser of a man, especially after I eat Thanksgiving meal where I will literally be more of a man.  So, Happy Thanksgiving to all.

I am making my picks for the entire weekend, but I reserve the right to change my mind should a key injury occur before then, or if a key player doesn't play and that player factored into my decision.  But, for the most part, I am going to just let it roll.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions +3 v. Chicago Bears

I wish this pick was as simple as selecting the home team on a short week, but there is much, much more involved.  Matt Nagy has lost the team, and the team has made that clear to management.  Then, apparently on Tuesday, ownership representatives met with Nagy to inform him that he was fired after today's game no matter what.  Then, Charles McCaskey holds a presser to say he specifically told Nagy that he would not be fired.  So, who to belive?  What to believe?  What I believe is that this team does not want to play for Nagy, and the backslide by ownership probably hurts more than helps.  And, Detroit has played tough for the most part.  #FireMattNagy

Dallas Cowboys -7 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have lost 3 games in a row coming out of their bye week.  Included in that stretch is a loss to the Giants, and giving up 41 and 32 in the last 2 games.  Dallas averages just under 30 per game.  They should win handily, even without Amari Cooper.  Oh yeah, and home team on a short week.

New Orleans Saints +6 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

So this is the one game out of the three that the automatic home team on a short week is not an obvious pick.  But, Buffalo has lost 2 out of 3, salvaging a blowout of the Jets between a miserable 9-6 loss to Jacksonville and last week's annihilation at the hands of the Colts.  The Saints have the 10th best defense in terms of yards and points, which should be enough to keep this game close.  Unless, of course, the Bills team that we though existed shows up.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 v. Atlanta Falcons

This might be the worst game on the slate, so give me the points.  Jacksonville has the 17th ranked rush offense and rush defense, and those are the two highest ranked units in this game.  Ugh!

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. New York Jets

This might be the worst game on the slate if not for the Jacksonville-Atlanta matchup.  So, not only did Houston ruin everyone's weeks last week by beating the Titans (and knocking Adrian Peterson off the Titans roster, and perhaps out of the league forever), but they are also 2-1 in games in which Tyrod Taylor starts and finishes this year.  Taylor actually can play a little.

New England Patriots -6 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

I'll admit that I don't like this spread.  I feel like it should be more around the 4 range, but, New England is hitting its stride and is now the 6th leading scorer in the NFL, and the best scoring defense in the NFL.  And Tennessee's problems extend whell beyond just missing Derrick Henry.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at New York Giants

Competing algorithms in this one:  never give up points on the road in the division, and don't pick teams on a short week.  But the Giants, who had been playing well, broke themselves by going for it on the rushed 4th and 1 on Monday night (at least if you want to go for it there, call timeout instead of rushing the play).  It also broke Jason Garrett as he was fired.  Philly is on a two game winning streak putting up 30 against Denver and 40 against New Orleans.

Cincinnati Bengals -4 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a difficult game to pick because Cincinnati might be the most Jeckyll and Hyde team in the NFL.  So, admittedly, this pick is based a lot on feel.  And that feeling is that Pittsburgh is not the same team with Ben Roethlisberger, in a bad way.

Indianapolis Colts +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Is Jonathan Taylor the MVP so far this year?  Yes.  Will Tom Brady win the award over Taylor?  Also yes.  The Colts have scored over 40 in two of the last three games, and have won 3 in a row.  Tampa needed a boneheaded decision and play on 4th down by the Giants on Monday night to help the cruise to an easy victory from what was a close game.  Oh yeah, and Tampa played Monday night.

Miami Dolphins +2 v. Carolina Panthers

Another difficult decision.  My rationale is taking points at home in what should be a short game, but really is based upon the fact that this team looks way better with Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa at the helm.  And yes, that is his full name.

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Should be a tough, close game so I will take the points.  Denver has the 3rd best scoring defense in the NFL, and 9th in total defense.  And, in a super-surprise stat of the day, Teddy Bridgewater has a higher quarterback rating than Justin Herbert (98.8 to 98.4 - negligible to be fair) (and a better nickname, "Teddy Two Gloves").

San Francisco 49ers -3 v. Minnesota Vikings

Both Minnesota and San Francisco have won two in a row to bring themselves into the playoff discussion.  Kirk Cousins is probably playing the best football of his life (106.3 rating with only 2 interceptions and 21 TDs).  But, San Francisco has the 6th best defense - 3rd against the pass), and Minnesota's team is grappling with the Everson Griffen situation.

Green Bay Packers +1 v. Los Angeles Rams

So, the Packers are 9-2 against the spread this year, but Covid-toe Aaron Rodgers is 0-1 against the spread, meaning this pick is probably the wrong way to go.  But, whenever Rodgers has something to prove, he is very dangerous - with apologies to Baker Mayfield.

Cleveland Browns +3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

And speaking of Baker Mayfield ... Tyler Huntley - that is all.

Washington Football Team -1 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

No team has confounded me more in the past few years than the WFT.  If Taylor Heinicke can keep down the turnovers, they could win on Monday night.

Big Bet

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. New York Jets

This might be the worst game on the slate if not for the Jacksonville-Atlanta matchup.  So, not only did Houston ruin everyone's weeks last week by beating the Titans (and knocking Adrian Peterson off the Titans roster, and perhaps out of the league forever), but they are also 2-1 in games in which Tyrod Taylor starts and finishes this year.  Taylor actually can play a little.

In this weird year, yes, I am taking the Texans a a big bet.

Bye Week:  Arizona Cardinals, Kansas City Chiefs

Last Week's Record:  5-10

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  84-81

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($450)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($1,065)