Picks of the Week - NFL Week 11

 

Well, back on track with a winning week from a record standpoint, but my "Big Bet" has become the bane of my existence this year, falling to 2-8!!!  That is horrible.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots -12 1/2 v. New York Jets

Of course I am going to pick New England here, even though I do not like the 12 1/2 points.  Short week, so home team, and even though the Jets have a pretty good pass defense (8th overall), they are 26th in scoring defense, whereas the Patriots are 8th in scoring.  And now that they are finally starting to unleash Trayveon Henderson, I can see this being 31-14.

Miami Dolphins -2 1/2 v. Washington Commanders in Berlin, Germany

Mike McDaniels just looks like the type of guy that would win this game and then go clubbin' in Berlin.  By the way, the Moxy Obstanhof's hotel bar is open 24 hours a day!!!  True story.  Oh yeah, and no Jayden Daniels.

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

I want to be soooo wrong here, but this Bears defense struggled at times against both Cincinnati and the New York Giants in the last two games - albeit both were wins.  Minnesota is a lot better than both of those teams.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Only, AND I DO MEAN ONLY, because this game is in the 1:00 time slot in Jacksonville.  I could make up some other reason, like Jacksonville is angry at themselves after last week's collapse against Houston, but even that doesn't make up for the talent difference between these two teams.  So, they only reason is getting points at home in the Eastern time zone in the 1:00 game against a Pacific time zone team.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Yes, Tampa Bay lost last week, but they lost to the Patriots which, it turns out, is a pretty damn good team.  The Bills just lost to the Dolphins.  And although we shouldn't read too much into just one game, the Bills haven't looked all that great, despite being 6-3.  At least, not great enough to give up 5 1/2 points.  They may win, but if they won 28-24, would that surprise anyone?

Green Bay Packers -7 1/2 at New York Giants

I have no idea how to evaluate this game, because it looks like Jameis Winston might be starting if Jaxson Dart doesn't clear concussion protocol.  Even if he does, still who knows.  I'll just take the favorite and hope for the best.

Tennessee Titans +6 1/2 v. Houston Texans

I DO NOT WANT TO DO THIS.  But, with my record this year, I do not need to tempt the gambling gods.  I will not take a road favorite in an intra-divisional game.  Besides, maybe Houston spent its mojo in last week's massive comeback against the Jaguars!

Carolina Panthers +3 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

So this came down to simply just taking the points.  But, if I had to analyze, I would just look at the defenses.  Carolina is 17th against the rush, and Atlanta is 29th against the rush - advantage:  Rico Dowdle, who is third in the NFL in rushing behind Jonathan Taylor and James Cook.  Atlanta does have the number 1 defense against the pass, but Carolina is a horrible passing offense anyway (30th).  So, I'll take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals +4 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

This is another case in which I am taking the points.  Cincinnati is coming off a bye week after its offense just had a phenomenal outing against the Chicago Bears defense behind Joe Flacco.  Pittsburgh has the worst defense in the league against the pass, and J'Marr Chase is second in receiving yards and the aforementioned Flacco has a 102.6 passer rating, with 11 TDs against on 2 INTs.

San Francisco 49ers -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Damnit.  I hate take intra-divisional road favorites, but they do hit sometimes.  I'll take this one because it IS less than a field goal, and because Jacoby Brissett is starting for Arizona (which could be up-and-down).  But, with Marvin Harrison, Jr. out with his appendix (see what I did there?), his Brissett-led resurgence will not continue, so no level of Trey-McBrideness can defeat San Francisco alone, especially with the 20th ranked pass defense of Arizona defending the #1 passing offense in all of the NFL, which might - MIGHT - see the return of Ricky Pearsall! 

Seattle Seahawks +3 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Two very evenly matched teams on both sides of the ball, fighting for the top of the division.  I am doing nothing more than taking points in the game that I think should be the best game of the weekend!

Denver Broncos +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Another game that looks like a road intra-divisional favorite should win, as we keep waiting for Denver's offense to finally show up.  But, JK Dobbins' injury could hurt the Broncos, which may force them to open things up more in the passing game, which could play more to Bo Nix's strengths, and the myriad receivers they can run out against the Chiefs' defense.  Plus, I have another intra-divisional road favorite that I want to pick next.

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

Baltimore is cruising with a three-game win streak, while Browns fans are clamoring for Shadeur Sanders!  I wish this was 6 1/2 because of Cleveland's second rated total defense, but I still think Baltimore runs away with this one.

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I get Detroit's rejuvenated offense with Dan Campbell's play-calling AND points?!  I'll take it, especially since Detroit averages over a touchdown more a game than Philadelphia!

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

I do not want to watch this game.  I sure hope there are some good college basketball matchups.

Byes:  Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I get Detroit's rejuvenated offense with Dan Campbell's play-calling AND points?!  I'll take it, especially since Detroit averages over a touchdown more a game than Philadelphia!

A prolific offense getting points against a team with a lot of wins, but not a lot of points.

Last Week Record: 8-6

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 69-80

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-8

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($25)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,920) 

Picks of the Week - Divisional Round

Solid start to the playoffs, finishing in the black.  A couple of low-scoring games kept me from being waaaaay up, but that is the nature of betting.  Let's see if I can capitalize on a good playoff start as we head into divisional weekend!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans +9 at Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City is the overwhelming favorite, and I believe they will win this game.  But, 9 points is a lot for this stage of the playoffs, especially given how close Kansas City's games have been this year.  Plus, Houston's defense is tough (6th against the pass; 11th against the rush, 7th in total defense), and Will Anderson, Jr. is on a heater right now.  And with Danielle Hunter's win percentage on the other side of the defensive line being the highest in the NFL, this game is going to be close.

Kansas City Chiefs -455 v. Houston Texans (Bet $455 to win $100)

I learned a long time ago not to bet against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs.  Even if this game is going to be close, I still feel strongly that Kansas City advances to the Conference Championship weekend; especially if Joe Mixon does not play for Houston (he is questionable).  Plus, Andy Reid is not going to lose coming off a bye week.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 41 1/2

Have to take the over in the lowest O/U number of the weekend.  Plus, the defenses average giving up over 41 total on the season, so I will take it.

Detroit Lions -8 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

The Commanders have had a helluva run this year, and finished as the 5th highest-scoring team in the NFL, but Detroit has been otherwordly on offense, averaging over 33, and their defense is 7th in points allowed.  With an extra week to rest up, and with David Montgomery returning, Detroit should cruise.

Detroit Lions -455 v. Washington Commanders (Bet $455 to win $100)

I already mentioned I think that Detroit is going to cruise, so I have to pick them with the money line, right?  Here is another reason why, Detroit is 5th against the run on defense, which could stifle Washington's 3rd-ranked rush offense, or at least limit it to less yard than they are used to gaining.  And oh yeah, Washington is on a short week.

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions UNDER 55 1/2

The contrapositive of the earlier over/under bet.  If you can't bet the under on the highest number, when can you?

Los Angeles Rams +6 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia's offense just hasn't looked right lately, even with Saquon doing his thing.  Jalen Hurts only threw for 131 yards last week in his first game back from injury for a team that is only 29th in the NFL in passing.  The Rams could focus on Saquon and try to limit his yards, as much as any time can.  On the other side, even a great pass defense like the Eagles are going to have problems with Puka Nacua, especially in inclement weather.

Los Angeles Rams +240 at Philadelphia Eagles (Bet $100 to win $240)

Some upset has to occur, right?  If so, I think it is this one, as the Rams have been a completely different team since Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned in Week 7, going 9-3 (including last week's win) since.  And yes this includes a 37-20 loss to the Eagles in Week 12, and I am willing to bet that Saquon doesn't have another 255 yard game along with A.J. Brown going for over 100 as well.   What scares me?  The Rams are playing on a short week, having played the Monday night game last week.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 42 1/2

I thought for sure that I was going to pick the under hear, with sub-freezing temperatures expected, but inclement weather often produces turnovers in plus-territory, meaning two or three extra scoring possessions.

Baltimore Ravens -1 at Buffalo Bills

If a road favorite is only favored by 1, are they truly a road favorite?  Yes the loss of Zay Flowers may hurt, but as I typed last week, the Ravens are scary in two-tight end sets as that increases the big blockers for Derrick Henry, and Isaiah Likely joins Mark Andrews as excellent pass catchers.  Josh Allen has been a force of nature this year, but Lamar is the MVP as far as I am concerned, and Baltimore's number 1 rushing defense will make Allen's arm try to beat them, in inclement weather.

Baltimore Ravens -115 (Bet $115 to win $100)

So, I really could have just bet Buffalo at Even here, which would hedge against my points spread bet, but because of the vig, that would have meant that I just lost $20 with no potential payout, so, the smart thing to do here is just bet on the Ravens for both, and hope for the best.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills OVER 51 1/2

No real reason for picking this over other than I just really want this to be a high scoring game, and I hope this helps manifest the outcome.  But really, both teams average scoring over 30 a game (30.5 for Baltimore and 30.9 for Buffalo), so I don't feel that this is too much of a reach.

Big Bets:

Houston Texans +9 at Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City is the overwhelming favorite, and I believe they will win this game.  But, 9 points is a lot for this stage of the playoffs, especially given how close Kansas City's games have been this year.  Plus, Houston's defense is tough (6th against the pass; 11th against the rush, 7th in total defense), and Will Anderson, Jr. is on a heater right now.  And with Danielle Hunter's win percentage on the other side of the defensive line being the highest in the NFL, this game is going to be close.

Going to get my big bets early, taking the Texans to cover for all of the reasons mentioned in this post.  Also, this game is going to be tough to watch as I need KC to win, but not by too much.  Fun times.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 41 1/2

Have to take the over in the lowest O/U number of the weekend.  Plus, the defenses average giving up over 41 total on the season, so I will take it.

Hoping that Kansas City coming off a bye week hits 30 on their own.

Record

Last Week's Record:  11-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-1

Year-to-Date Record:  145-135-10

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 10-10

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $213.50

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($601.50)

Picks of the Weeks - Conference Championship Weekend!!!

 

The fantastic Wildcard Wekeend continued with a 6-2 week in the Divisional Round, including winning both big bets!!!  Cannot do much better than that!  An amazing playoff run that I hoop continues through Conference Championship Weekend.  Either way, this looks like it will be some great football watching today.  Who to bet on?  Let's see!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs + 4 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

There is a legitimate chance that the Chiefs could win this game outright, so might as well take the points, right?  That, and Patrick Mahomes is 9-1-1 against the spread in his playoffs career.  I still expect the Ravens to win the game though, based on the fact that Buffalo easily sliced through the Chiefs defense, exposing what was the thrid best defense in the NFL - and Baltimore is a much better offense than Kansas City.

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens OVER 43 1/2

I expect this to be a 50+ point game, despite the fact that these two teams are first (Baltimore) and second (Kansas City) in the NFL in points allowed.

San Francisco 49ers -7 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

A lot of focus will be on the fact that both teams are tough against the run - with Detroit finishing second in the NFL and San Francisco finishing third, but the Lions are much worse against the pass (27th in the NFL) and Deebo Samuel is playing this week to give San Francisco that extra weapon for Detroit to try to stop.  

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers UNDER 52 1/2

Honestly, I do not feel strongly either way on this.  Some sustained drives might limit possessions, keeping the score low - but just a guess.

Big Bet:

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens OVER 43 1/2

I expect this to be a 50+ point game, despite the fact that these two teams are first (Baltimore) and second (Kansas City) in the NFL in points allowed.

Both offenses should be in full effect in this game.  I honestly expected the O/U to be around 47 to 48, so I will take the OVER.

Record

Last Week's Record:  6-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Playoffs' Record:  15-5

Playoffs' Big Bet:  3-0

Year-to-Date Record:  159-119-14

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  10-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $680

Playoffs' Winnings (Losses):  $1,550

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $2,645

Picks of the Week

 

So this past week is more the norm for most seasoned gamblers; tremendously close.  We just hope that we finish slightly ahead most week; and thankfully that happened last week.  I will always take a plus week.  Can I keep that up?  We shall see.  For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Cincinnati Bengals -4 v. Miami Dolphins

Two Thursday night wins in a row!  Follow the rules and everything eventually comes out allright.

Chicago Bears +3 at New York Giants

I am accused of picking the Bears because they are my favorite team.  I would not do that to my wallet.  I am 1-1-1 on Bears picks this year so far.  I pick them here not because in the back recesses of my mind I think they will win, but because I am getting 3 points against a team that is playing a 1:00 game on a short week.  Plus, the Bears are the numbr 2 rushing offense in the NFL and the Giants are the 25th rushing defense.  I will gladly take those points, especially with Leonard Williams out.

Minnesota Vikings -4 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints (in London)

No Jameis Winston, no Alvin Kamara, no Michael Thomas, no Noah Vannet, no Andrus Peat, no Marcus Maye, etc., etc., etc.

Los Angeles Chargers -6 at Houston Texans

If you look just at the scores, you would think that Houston has played everyone tough and close - and you would be right.  But, you really have to look at the real numbers.  Houston is 29th in total offense (25th in passing, 27th in rushing, and 26th in scoring) all while being in last in third-down conversions.  On defense Houston is 31st, while being last in rushing defense.  Their salvation, tied for 12th in scoring defense.  Those numbers cannot hold.  I'll take the Chargers.

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Detroit went from playing everyone tough last year to actually playing this year, at least on offense.  The Lions are 2nd in scoring offense, 3rd in total offense and rushing offense.  Yes, they will miss Amon-Ra St. Brown, and yes the defense isn't quite up to the offense's levels (last in scoring defense), but Seattle is a poor offensive team.  I'll take the Lions.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

In most seasons, a 2-1 Jaguars team that is first in their division would be the story to date in the NFL.  Not this year.  The story this year is the Philadelphia Eagles and their dynamic offense (1st overall, 3rd in passing, 5th in scoring and 7th in rushing - not to mention 2nd in 3rd down conversions.)  The Jags are lead by their defense however (1st in rushing, 4th in scoring, 7th in total defense), but their 21st ranked passing defense will let them down.  They have nobody to cover A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith.

New York Jets +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Zach Wilson is back, but I am not sold on him yet.  What I am sold on is that the Steelers defense is lousy (17th in scoring, 22nd in passing, 25 in total, 28th in rushing), and their offense is even worse (last in total offense, 28th in passing, 22nd in rushing, and thanks to some defensive touchdowns, 19th in scoring).  And Pittsburgh is GIVING points.  I'll take them.

Cleveland Browns -1 at Atlanta Falcons

Stop me if you have heard this before ... Cleveland has the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL.  They will bruise and batter the Falcons, who are a respectable 16th against the run, but 23rd in total defense and 26th in scoring defense.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Neither of these teams are where they thought they would be at this point, but both teams had their first victory - and good ones at that - last week, with the Titans beating the Raiders and the Colts defeating the Chiefs.  Both teams have been below par offensively, while the Colts have at least been playing defense (6th against the rush, 3rd overall.)  I, however, don't think the offensive rankings are indicative of either of these teams capabilities, so I am just going to take the points.

Dallas Cowboys -3 v. Washington Commanders

I just love typing "Commanders" instead of "Football Team" and "Racists."  But, I am going to take Dallas here.  Their offense has been very respectable under Cooper Rush, and they are at home.  Washington's previously strong defense has not been so this year (28th in total defense and scoring defense).  Washington has been winning the third down battles on offense (6th) and defense (5th), but that isn't sustainable when you aren't getting the job done on the other downs.

Buffalo Bills -3 at Baltimore Ravens

This game should be incredibly exciting.  The Ravens have the top scoring offense in the NFL while the Bills are 3rd.  However, the Bills have the number 1 passing offense and the Ravens are last in the NFL (granted a lot of that occurred in 1 game, but still).  Giving the points on the road because of the Bills defense (1st overall, 2nd in rushing and passing, 4th in scoring.)

Arizona Cardinals +1 at Carolina Panthers

Nobody wants to watch this game.  I mean nobody.

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders at 0-3 are the most disappointing team so far in the NFL.  They are 28th in rushing offense, 21st in total defense, and just generally boring.  Denver has been playing great defense (2nd in scoring, 3rd in total and passing, 6th in rushing) and are getting points in a division rivalry.  I'll take the points.

Green Bay Packers -9 1/2 v. New England Patriots

I know, I know Bill Belichick blah, blah, blah.  Also Brain Hoyer.  I would actually be excited to see Bailey Zappe come and sling it around, but we probably won't.  At least I have Damien Harris in fantasy.

Kansas City Chiefs +1 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa's offense has been horrible (28th in total offense, 25th in rushing offense, 22nd in passing and 22nd in scoring).  The defense has given up the fewest points in the NFL, but we all know Kansas City can score points.  So, I'll take some here.

Los Angeles Rams +1 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

The Rams offense has been paltry so far this year, but they have too many players for that to last.  Unfortunately they are runing up against a tough 49ers defense (1st against the pass, 2nd in total defense, 3rd in scoring defense and 4th against the run.)  Everything says take the 49ers at home.  So, I am going the opposite direction.  The Rams finally shed their Super Bowl hangover.

Big Bet:

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Detroit went from playing everyone tough last year to actually playing this year, at least on offense.  The Lions are 2nd in scoring offense, 3rd in total offense and rushing offense.  Yes, they will miss Amon-Ra St. Brown, and yes the defense isn't quite up to the offense's levels (last in scoring defense), but Seattle is a poor offensive team.  I'll take the Lions.

Detroit is playing at home, and not giving up too many points - which is the recipe I like for a big bet.  My other thoughts were the Chargers (giving up points on the road), Philadelphia (giving up too many points) and the Browns on the road).   Man, I really want to take Cleveland here.

Last Week's Record:  8-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  24-22-2

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-0-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $180 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  $280

Picks of the Week

  

Finally, an absolutely amazing week.  An 11-5 record, thanks to a late switch from the Bears to the Vikings once I learned the Bears' entire secondary was out due to Covid protocols.  With a win in the big bet, I was able to erase a whole lot of losses.  Perhaps in a season that was entirely unpredictable even before the Covid resurgence (Thanks Omicron!), perhaps all it took was total chaos for me to right the ship.  For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans + 3 1/2 San Francisco 49ers

Both teams have a lot of players out of this game, so the home team seemed right in a short week, which seemed shorter since we had 2 games on Tuesday night to finish last week, especially receiving points.

 

Green Bay Packers -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Two starting offense linemen, the strength of the Browns, missed this game due to Covid protocols, so it should have been easy for the Packers to cover.  But alas, they lightened up from a sure cover to give up a late touchdown (but not late enough to call it a backdoor cover).  Plus, the Browns were on a super-short week (Monday-Saturday).  Of course, though, we should have guessed Aaron Rodgers hates Christmas.

Indianapolis Colts +3 at Arizona Cardinals

This was a super-easy pick, even with arguably the best player in the NFL out due to Covid protocols Quenton Nelson, (And yes, Quenton Nelson is in that conversation - if you don't believe so, you don't watch football).  Did anybody see how Detroit ran all over Arizona last week?  Jonathan Taylor Thomas must have been licking his chops watching film this week.  My only regret is that I didn't type up my picks earlier so that I could designate this my big bet. 

Detroit Lions +7 at Atlanta Falcons

Can anybody honestly look at these teams and not at least question if 2-win Detroit isn't better than 6-8 Atlanta?  Of course we question that, so, give me the 7.

Philadelphia Eagles -10 v. New York Giants

Mike Glennon.  Plus, the Eagles are 1st in the league in rushing, and the Giants defense is 26th in the league in stopping the run.  Ten points in an intradivisional game is a lot to give up, but crazy things have happened this year.  I hate that the Eagles played Tuesday night, but at least they are home.

New York Jets -2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence hasn't thrown a touchdown in forever, and the Jaguars may need the rest of the year to cast off the pall of Urban Meyer.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

First an angry Tom Brady is a great Tom Brady, and Brady is angry after his performance last week.  Plus, Sam Darnold might make an appearance.

Los Angeles Chargers -11 1/2 at Houston Texans

Give up double digits on the road?  In 2021, sure.  Chargers haven't scored fewer than 28 points in the last 3 weeks, and Justin Jackson is more than a capable backup with Austin Ekeler on the Covid list.  Houston is 31st in the league in scoring, so hopefully the numbers hold up.

New England Patriots Pick 'Em v. Buffalo Bills

Other than a win over hapless, directionless Carolina last week, the Bills have not been playing well, and, Belichick's game plan of throwing the ball 3 times in the Patriots victory 3 weeks ago has to be playing mind tricks on the Bills' coaching staff.

Los Angeles Rams -3 at Minnesota Vikings

The Rams are really rounding into their status as pre-season NFC favorites, no 6th in the league in total offense and 5th in scoring offense.  Minnesota will be hard-pressed to keep up without Dalvin Cook and possibly without Adam Thielen.  Rams played Tuesday, but Minnesota played Monday, so both teams on a short week makes this pick tougher.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 v. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have been resilient in their last 3 games, even though all 3 have been losses (by a total of 4 points).  But being without Lamar Jackson AND Tyler Huntley will press Josh Johnson, who hasn't played since the Obama administration [Ed. Note - Hyperbole], into a starting role.

Seattle Seahawks -6 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

Short week for both teams with the Bears having played on Monday and the Seahawks on Tuesday, but at least Seattle is home.   Fire Matt Nagy!!!

Denver Broncos -1 at Las Vegas Raiders

Both teams mediocre, as is this pick.  I would hate it either way.

Kansas City Chiefs -11 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

This seems preposterous, until you look and see that the strength of the Steelers, its defense, isn't actually a strength as they are 27th in total defense, and 22nd in scoring defense.  And as good a season as Najee Harris is having, the Steelers are 31st in the NFL in rushing.

Dallas Cowboys -9 1/2 v. Washington Football Team

Dallas in the hunt for the number 1 seed in the NFC, and are cruising with 3 wins in a row.  The Ezekiel Elliott/Tony Pollard combination is WAY more dangerous than Ezekiel Elliott on his own.  Plus, Antonio Gibson might not play.

Miami Dolphins -2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Saints down to Ian Book.  Here's to hoping newly-signed Blake Bortles makes an appearance.

Big Bet:

Detroit Lions +7 at Atlanta Falcons

Can anybody honestly look at these teams and not at least question if 2-win Detroit isn't better than 6-8 Atlanta?  Of course we question that, so, give me the 7.

Dan Campbell did say at the beginning of the year that nobody was going to play harder than his team - and he has been RIGHT!

Last Week's Record:  11-5

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  119-105

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $700

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($235)