Picks of the Week

  

At one point last wekend, things were looking amazing; 5-5 after the early games, and sitting at 3-1 in the late games, with a team driving for me to be 4-0.  Then, it all fell apart.  1-3 in those games, and boy did that hurt.  Oh well, we are now learning how this season might be progressing, although there are still some really big question marks about some teams.  Let's hope I answer those questions correctly this week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans +8 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

I hated this pick when I made it, but if you always take the home team on a short week, ultimately you will end up ahead.

Chicago Bears +7 at Cleveland Browns

Will the Bears offense experience a bump with rookie Justin Fields at the helm?  Probably so.  Keeps this game close.

Baltimore Ravens -8 at Detroit Lions

The Lions just don't have enough firepower, and as we saw last week, the Ravens do, even with all of their injuries.  And, Detroit is on a short week having played Monday night.

Atlanta Falcons +3 at New York Giants

When two really bad teams play against each other, I like to take the points.  Tougher decision on this one because the Giants have looked borderline respectable, but I'll still take the points.

New England Patriots -3 v. New Orleans Saints

If I get this one wrong, it is because the Saints are going to bounce between great and awful, so I just have to figure out when the bounce will occur.  My guess is they don't bounce back against a Belichick coached team.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 v. Cincinnati Bengals

The battle of the two worst offensive lines in the NFL.

Tennessee Titans -5 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

We don't even know which quarterback will start for Indianapolis after Carson Wentz's one-on-one game with Allen Iverson (he broke both ankles.)  But we do know that Tennessee bounced back bigly last week.  They continue to roll.

Buffalo Bills -7 v. Washongton Football Team

Bills are out to prove that week 1 was a delusion.  Played great last week, and although this week should be tougher, still win by 10-14.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Take the over first and foremost.  Secondly, Kansas City NEEDS this win after last weeks unexpected loss to Baltimore.

Arizona Cardinals -7 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

I am inventing a new caveat to the bet against the west coast team travelling east and playing the early game; the addition is "unless they are playing a team with a rookie quarterback AND a rookie coach.  Oh, wait, Arizona is in the mountain time zone.  Then, easy pick.

New York Jets +10 1/2 at Denver Broncos

The Jets are not good,, but they do have some actual NFL players.  So, I'll take the 10 1/2.  Denver is my pick in my suicide pool, though.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

No Tuaniganinualepola this week, and although Jackby Brissett is an accomplished NFL backup, he doesn't move the needle offensively.  I think the Raiders win convincingly.

Seattle Seahawks -2 at Minnesota Vikings

Seattle is still trying to figure out how they lost last week.

Los Angeles Rams +1 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Easily the best game of the week.  A potentially great offense getting points at home.  Brady always rises to the occasion for big games, but for him, this isn't necessarily a big game.

Green Bay Packers +3 at San Francisco 49ers

Green Bay on a short week, but at least they get the Sunday night game.  I feel that week 2 Green Bay is way more indicative of what they Packers can do versus Week 1 Green Bay.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I still don't think we know exactly what either of these teams are going to be, but I feel that if Dallas can run a little bit, they should be able to win this game.

  

Big Bet

Las Vegas Raiders -3 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

No Tuaniganinualepola this week, and although Jackby Brissett is an accomplished NFL backup, he doesn't move the needle offensively.  I think the Raiders win convincingly.

Another reason to type Tuanigamanualepola!  Injured Dolphins team not going to cover against a Raiders team that is playing as good as anyone.

Last Week's Record:  7-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  15-17

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($455) 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($700)

Picks of the Week

 

Another really good week.  Could have been a great week, but for the damn Big Bet, and the damn Bears, who never once looked like they were going to lose until the strip sack in the fourth quarter.  Otherwise, the money would have been great.  Still up thanks to a 10-5 record.  Hopefully we can keep this rolling.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots +5 at Los Angeles Rams

Yes, I know, always take the home team on a short week.  But, the Patriots played in LA last week, and stayed on the west coast, so no travel.  I thought, for once, perhaps Belichick and found a way around the betting rules.  I thought wrong.  Perhaps it is because they were not at home for an entire week plus.

Houston Texans -2 at Chicago Bears

Just to think, DeShaun Watson was supposed to be playing in this game, except for the home team.  I will never forgive the Bears for that (or picking Curtis Enis over Randy Moss, but I digress.)

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville gets a jolt at home, to lose by 7.  Interestingly, the Jaguars have not allowed Derrick Henry to rush for 100 yards in any of his 4 games in Jacksonville, which is virtually Henry's home.  That fact, and perhaps the Titans let up just a bit against the Jaguars means they win, but don't cover.

Carolina Panthers -3 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

This game is an absolute crapshoot.  I have heard from lots of "experts" and talked to a lot of friends, and the consensus is all over the board (meaning no consensu).  I'll just take the home team, if I have to have a reason to justify it.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 v. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys' defense is atrocious (last in the NFL in rushing defense and scoring; 24th in total defense.)  Add that to the fact that Dallas is playing on a short week, and giving points.  I will take them.

Miami Dolphins +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City, although winning, has not been dominant.  In fact, there last 4 wins have been by a combined 15 points, and that is only because they beat Denver by 6 last week.  Miami has been playing tough, solid football in all three phases of the game.  On top of that, Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa is starting to get comfortable on the field behind center.

New York Giants +2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

This was a really tough one for me to choose.  Arizona has lost 3 in a row after defeating Buffalo. So, does that mean they are sliding, or does that mean they are due?  Well, they aren't quite a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing at 1, but they are coming from the Mountain time zone, so I am going to take the home points.  Should the Giants when this game, they would have identical records with Arizona.

Minnesota Vikings +6 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

How is this not a 3 point spread?  I know Tampa Bay is at home, but geez, 6 1/2 seems high.  Strength on strength in this game as Minnesota - which relies heavily on Dalvin Cook - will be challenged by the NFL's number 1 rated rush defense.

  

Las Vegas Raiders +3 v. Indianapolis Colts

Honestly, I just didn't want to pick a road favorite here.  No other reason.

New York Jets +15 at Seattle Seahawks

I know that Seattle is very, very good offensively (3rd in total offens, 4th in scoring offense), and their defense has played much better as of late, but the Jets have recently lost by 3 to the Raiders, 6 to the Chargers, 3 to the Patrtiots, and 8 to the Bills.  They only other games in their last 6 have been a 24-0 shutout and a 20-3 loss to the Dolphins, who clearly have their number.  They have been playing teams pretty close, so I will take 2+ touchdowns.

Green Bay Packers -8 at Detroit Lions

Seems like I have to pick another road favorite.  If this spread was 10, with it being an intra-divisional game, I would have gone the other way, but at 8, I will take Aaron Rodgers.

Atlanta Falcons +1 at Los Angeles Chargers

I don't know what think about this one.  This is also strength-on-strength, with Atlanta's passing offense (without Julio Jones) going against the Chargers passing defense (5th in the NFL).  Everything about this game tells me to take the Chargers, so I am taking the Falcons.

New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Maybe Jalen Hurts is just the jolt that the Eagles need, however the announcement that Jason Peters is done for the season - and his career - is going to be too much.

Washington Football Team +3 at San Francisco 49ers

This defense line for Washington is outstanding - and first rounders all (Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen.)  Plus, Alex Smith is THE best story in the NFL this year.  And, San Francisco is on a short week.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

No, I am not overreacting to Pittsburgh's loss to Washington last week as everyone should have seen that coming after Pittsburgh's tumultuous prior week regareding scheduling of their game with the Ravens.  But, before that, they had not looked particularly dominant.  Despite Buffalo playing on a short week, I am taking the Bills due to the fact that they have been clicking of late.

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

The Browns played their absolute best last week against Tennessee, and there is no way that they play like that twice in a row.  Yes, I am violating all types of gambling rules in this one (visiting intradivisional favorite; taking a team on a short week) but I feel the Browns aren't yet ready for this particular challenge.

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -8 at Detroit Lions

Seems like I have to pick another road favorite.  If this spread was 10, with it being an intra-divisional game, I would have gone the other way, but at 8, I will take Aaron Rodgers.

So, really?  I am taking a road favorite in an intra-divisional game, favored by 8 nonetheless, as my big bet.  Yes I am.  Why?  Because Detroit can't do that to me twice in a row, right?  And, because I have more faith in the Packers than the Saints (with Hurts being an unknown betting commodity) and Minnesota getting points.  Washington was a thought also.

Last Week's Record:  10-5

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  105-83-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $285
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1745

Picks of the Week

   

The season is getting tougher and tougher now as the casino actuaries have a much better feel on all of the teams so the lines are ridiculously tough.  Let's see if we can't motor through a winning week before the always tough Thanksgiving week.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Arizona Cardinals

I hated this line and I hated this pick.  Problem is, I would have hated it the other way also.  I will take that win.

Tennessee Titans +6 at Baltimore Ravens

Remember just recently when people were touting Tennessee as the best team in the NFL.  That was before losing 3 of 4, and that 1 win being against the Chicago Bears.  But, they are still tough and their losses have generally been close (except for punter problems against Indianapolis.)  I am not saying they win this game, but it should be close.  A tough, tough game for both teams.

Detroit Lions -1 at Carolina Panthers

This doesn't really count as picking a road favorite, but with Teddy Two Gloves possible still not even playing, I have to take Detroit.  Carolina has played some tough, close games without Christian McCaffrey, but without him and Bridgewater?  Probably too much.  And, I stand by this pick even if Bridgewater plays, because he is hurt more than Matthew Stafford.

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia has the 26th ranked rush defense, and Nick Chubb ran for 126 yards on only 19 carries in his return from injury last week.  Kareem Hunt added 104 yards on 19 carries.  This game could get ugly.

New England Patriots -2 at Houston Texans

This Patriots team is still a shadow of its former self, but it competes and it has Belichick.  This Texans team is in complete disarray, ranking 19th in total offense, 25th in scoring offense, 31st (next to last) in total defense and 26th in scoring defense.  Bottom line, who do you trust  in this game?  Oh yeah, and Sony Michel is back for the Patriots.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 10 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh could honestly win this by 30.  But, they did play Green Bay close, and they are at home, so I will almost always take double digits.

Atlanta Falcons +3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Football-wise, the Falcons have the second-most explosive passing offense (with Calvin Ridley returning to the lineup), and the Saints are in the middle of pass defense rankings (15th).  In reality, Taysom Hill brings a lot to the table, but not as an every down quarterback.  I think the Saints might turn to Jameis Winston at some point in this game, and if so, they are going to regret not giving him the first team snaps this week.

Washington Football Team -1 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow is having a remarkable rookie campaign, but the Football Team has the number 1 ranked passing defense in the entire NFL, holding opponents to an average of 194 yards.  That and the incredible story that is Alex Smith (coming soon on an ESPN 30 for 30 AND Disney+ movie near you).  (Well, not technically yet, but it is bound to happen, right?)

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

This, in an ordinary year, would be an easy pick for me - and I would take Denver.   Denver is at home in the mile high air, has an adequate defense, and has shocked the likes of New England at home this season.  But, Denver doesn't yet know if Drew Lock or Brett Rypien is quarterbacking today, and Miami has been on a run since Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa has started (even though his play has been OK to good, not great), and this team is playing inspired football.  Give me the Dolphins.

Los Angeles Chargers -9 1/2 v. New York Jets

Although 0-9, the Jets have played some close, tough games ... AT HOME.  Unfortunately, this game is on the road, where the Jets have lost by 10, 29, 24 and 26.  That and the Chargers have risen to 7th in the NFL in passing offense, (3rd since Justin Herbert took over), and the Jets are 29th in pass defense.  The fact that this is a 13 point spread astounds me.

Green Bay Packers +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis has played remarkable at times, and no more impressive than last week's 34-17 defeat of Tennessee on the road.  But, Ryan Tannehill, for all he has accomplished in Nashville, is not Aaron Rodgers.  And, more importantly JK Scott is much better at punting than the revolving door at the Titans team facility.  Plus, Aaron Rodgers gets Allen Lazard back as well.  And, I get points!!!  I'll take them.

Dallas Cowboys +7 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

Every week has that one game that surprises everybody, right?  So I think this one is it, and I will pick against my instincts.  Yes the Minnesota Vikings and their running game with Dalvin Cook has been amazing.  But, the Chicago Bears showed a blue print that can keep Cook in check.  However, the Cowboys' defense is certainly NOT the Bears' defense.  Deciding factors?  Minnesota is on a short week having played Monday night, and the Cowboys played the Pittsburgh Steelers incredibly tough.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Las Vegas Raiders

Yes, 7 points is a big number for a road favorite in an intradivisional game, especially when the home underdog already defeated the road favorite earlier this year.  But, that should be an incentive for the road favorite, especially when the Raiders' defense - well, team really - is ravaged by Covid.  At the beginning of the week 8 of 11 defensive starters were on the Covid list.  Who knows how many will be ready to play?

Los Angeles Rams +4 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I honestly am not sure which way to pick this game, but the Rams' performace last week against Seattle was great.  I will take the points here, since in my mind this shoul dbe a 2 1/2 to 3 points spread.

Bye Week - Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet

New England Patriots -2 at Houston Texans

This Patriots team is still a shadow of its former self, but it competes and it has Belichick.  This Texans team is in complete disarray, ranking 19th in total offense, 25th in scoring offense, 31st (next to last) in total defense and 26th in scoring defense.  Bottom line, who do you trust  in this game?  Oh yeah, and Sony Michel is back for the Patriots.

OK - so I hate picking road teams as my big bet, but my first choice was originally the Browns over Philadelphia.  But, they burnt me last week as my Big Bet, so I am not picking them twice in a row.  My other choices were Miami over Denver and Green Bay over Indianapolis, and they were both road teams as well, and Indianapolis has a phenomenal defense.  So, Belichick it is.

Last Week's Record:  7-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  78-65-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($235)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1205