Picks of the Week

 

First winning week last week. Hopefully it is the start of a streak!!!  I am starting a bit late, honestly because I was watching last night's Saturday Night Live, so not too much time for analysis if I am going to get out to watch the Bears/Packers!  Of course, this means I am NOT watching the dumpster-fire that is Dolphins-Jaguars.  This is the first week of byes, so each game is more important in developing a winning streak than usual.  Although I am still 0-5 on the big bet.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Philadelphia Eagles +7 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thank goodness Philly's staff believes in anlytics, otherwise I would have pushed this bet instead of winning.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. Miami Dolphins (in London)

Jacksonville always outperforms in London.  Well, almost always.

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 at Chicago Bears

Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears almost as much as the McCaskey family.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Both putrid offenses, by Cincinnati's defense is middling.  The same cannot be said of Detroit's.

  

Kansas City Chiefs -6 1/2 at Washington Football Team

Both defenses are horrible (32nd and 31st respectively in scoring defense).  The best defensive unit is Washington's rush defense, and Kansas City doesn't rely on the run that much anyway.  Only because I just took 2 consecutive road favorites am I making it 3.

Carolina Panthers +2 v. Minnesota Vikings

I am not making it 4 consecutive road favorites, especially with Carolina's defense (1st in passing defense, 2nd in total defense, 3rd in scoring defense, and 8th in rushing defense.  They are also 1st in 3rd down conversion percentage defense.)

Indianapolis Colts -10 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Two 1-4 teams in a battle of horrific failutres.  I know I am giving up 10 1/2 points, but the Texans only score 17.8 on average.  Indy can score 27 on this Texans defense.

New York Giants +7 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

West coast team travelling east playing the early game.  

Baltimore Ravens -3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

I would have loved to have seen this game in the 4:00 slot.  Betting, again, against the west coast team travelling east playing the early game.

Arizona Cardinals +3 at Cleveland Browns

Yes Kareem Hunt is really good.  But, Kareem Hunt is much  better when the Browns have Nick Chubb.  Chbb's absence might affect the number 1 rushing team in the NFL.

Las Vegas Raiders +5 at Denver Broncos

Most teams play poorly in the face of adversity.  I think playing on the raod actually helps the Raiders.  I look for Carl Nassib and his position-mates Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue have a great game rushing Teddy Two Gloves.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Dallas is clicking on all cylinders, even defense where Trevon Diggs leads the NFL in interceptions.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 v. Seattle Seahawks

All you need to know is that Seattle brought in Blake Bortles for a tryout this week.  Didn't sign him, so Jake Luton is the backup.

Buffalo Bills -5 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

The Bills are cruising on offense  as the highest scoring team in the league.  But, they are also the best team in the league at preventing the opponent from scoring.

Big Bet

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Dallas is clicking on all cylinders, even defense where Trevon Diggs leads the NFL in interceptions.

I don't like taking road teams for my big bet, but road teams are covering at an unprecedented rate this year.  In fact, most casinos have moved the traditional 2 1/2 to 3 points given to the home team down to 1 1/2.

And, for personal reasons, I am riding with someone named Elliott, with 2 "L"s and 2 "T"s.

Bye Week:  Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers

Last Week's Record:  10-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  42-38

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $175

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($805)