NFL 3/4 Season Review

 

So the NFL season is now officially 3/4 over, as 14 of 18 weeks are completed, but each team has played 13 games (of 17) and no team has a bye remaining.  So here is a look at the season to-date, along with what each team needs to occur over the last 4 games. 

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (11-2) The Patriots went 4-0 during the last quarter, and is definitely looking like a team that could make a Super Bowl run.  What New England needs for the stretch run is for everybody to stay healthy.

Buffalo Bills (9-4) A mediocre 2-2 during the last quarter and definitely showing some weaknesses.  What Buffalo needs is to limit turnovers offensively, and for a wide receiver to step up down the stretch.  

Miami Dolphins (6-7) The Dolphins wend undefeated during the last quarter and are still in the playoff hunt.  What Miami needs most is to determine whether Tua really is it quarterback going forward, so the team can structure its draft around protecting him and solidifying the defense, because he has weapons.

New York Jets (3-10)

Showing a little fight, but still bad.  What the Jets need the most is for a team that has its quarterback of the future to secure the number 1 overall draft pick - like the Giants.  That way, New York can trade its first-round pick this year, its first-round pick in 2027, and Indianapolis' first-round pick in 2027, for the overall number 1 this year.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)

A few weeks ago the fans were openly shouting "Fire Mike Tomlin," but here after Week 14 the team is still in first place in the division, albeit by a single game.  What Pittsburgh needs to do is tighten up its defense, which sits at 28th in the NFL.  Yes, the offense is 29th, but Aaron Rodgers is still capable of making plays when it counts.  The defense has to step up.

Baltimore Ravens (6-7)

Baltimore is almost out of the playoff hunt (2 games out of the last wildcard), and who would have thought that at the beginning of the season.  The Ravens need to start identifying talent in the free agent pool and in college that can help next year.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-9)

The Bengals have shown signs of life since Joe Burrow's return.  If people didn't know before, he is an elite quarterback.  The Bengals need to invest heavily in offensive lineman to help keep him healthy.

Cleveland Browns (3-10)

Yes they have only one win this quarter of the season, but the Browns have found their quarterback for the future in rookie Shadeur Sanders, even if they won't admit it yet.  What Cleveland needs to do is find playmaking receivers to pair with fellow rookie running back Quinshon Judkins.

AFC SOUTH

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4)

This is the biggest change in the whole NFL, as the Colts previously led this division at the last update and are now in third.  The Jaguars have taken advantage of that slide by going 4-1 this quarter.  What the Jaguars need to do is re-establish Brian Thomas, Jr. as a number 1 receiver to go along with a solid running game (Travis Etienne is 10th in the NFL, and should eclipse 1,000 yards this week).

Houston Texans (8-5)

Houston went 5-0 this quarter riding the league's best defense, by far.  What Houston needs is someone - anyone - to give them a semblance of a running game as Nick Chubb and Woody Marks are currently not getting the job done (23rd in the NFL).

 

Indianapolis Colts (8-5)

Not only are the Colts sliding, but they lost quarterback Daniel Jones for the season with a torn achilles.  The Colts need someone to take the reins to calm the offense and allow their strength (Jonathan Taylor and solid outside playmakers) to flourish.  Could that be Phillip Rivers?

Tennessee Titans (2-11)

Still at the bottom of a high-powered division but showing signs of life and actually winning last week.  What the Titans need to do is keep losing to get as high a draft pick as possible, so they can trade it for a haul to a quarterback needy team.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (11-2)

The Broncos went 4-0 this quarter but did not look good doing it.  Denver needs for its offense to really breakout, like everyone saw down the stretch last year, otherwise they will forever be seen as a paper tiger.

Los Angeles Chargers (9-4)

A very solid 3-1 quarter, and a balance that makes them a difficult team to beat.  What the Chargers need is for Justin Herbert to recover from his broken non-throwing hand very quickly, as he looked a bit unsure of himself and the offensive playcalling was limited against the Eagles.  They did win though!

Kansas City Chiefs (6-7)

This quarter?  1-3 and 2 games out of the last wildcard spot.  Their season is DONE.  Statistically the main problem is they are mediocre in the running game (17th).  But the primary problem that needs to be addressed is playmakers on both sides of the ball.  Rashee Rice can make plays, but nobody on either side of the ball scares anybody anymore (except Patrick Mahomes, of course).

Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)

Among the worst teams in the league, and they seem to be getting worse each week, going 0-5 this quarter of the season.  The Raiders need a quarterback.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (8-5)

Cracks in the armor of the defending NFC champions, going 2-3 in the last quarter.  What they need is Jalen Hurts to play like the Eagles expect (although his connection to A.J. Brown is heating up) and the defensive line to play like the team expects, for entire games!

Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)

Really coming around behind the number 1 offense in the NFL, going 3-1 in the last quarter.  Need a pass rush to help the defensive backs, as the passing defense is last in the NFL.

Washington Commanders (3-10)

They have fallen off the cliff, going 0-4 this quarter and into the bottom echelon of the league.  Some of that was key injuries (Jayden Daniels; Terry McLaurin), but this team has holes - especially on defense.  They need to fill holes all throughout the defense.

New York Giants (2-11)

The Giants also lost all of their games this past quarter of the season, but Jaxson Dart, a healthy Cam Skattebo, and a healthy Malik Nabors has promise offensively moving forward, along with a find a TE in Theo Johnson.  The Giants need to win the number 1 pick so they can trade back for a haul, with a team like Atlanta or the Jets that have resources - and multiple high-round picks.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers (9-3-1)

The Packers went 4-1 this past quarter to earn the current #1 seed in the NFC.  The rematch against the Chicago Bears in Chicago in two weeks could mean A LOT!  All the Packers really need is Josh Jacobs to stay healthy; he means the world to this offense.

Chicago Bears (9-4)

Kept pace with the Packers by going 4-1 during the last quarter of the season.  A close loss this past week sets up a very interesting rematch in two weeks.  The Bears need to find a pass rush.  Montez Sweat has experienced a bit of a surge with the return of Grady Jarrett to the interior, but they need more, either from the line or blitz packages.

Detroit Lions (8-5)

An unexpected swoon in the last quarter, including a Thanksgiving Day loss to the Packers has the Lions on the outside of the playoffs looking in right now (albeit by only one game).  The Lions need to work on their third-down plays.  Despite a prolific offense (3rd overall) they are 18th in converting third-downs; whereas on defense they are T11th in preventing third downs.

Minnesota Vikings (5-8)

Really stumbled this year after a phenomenal regular season ending in a playoff dud.  What Minnesota needs is Sam Darnold back.

NFC SOUTH

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)

Tampa Bay stays on top of the division despite being 1-4 this quarter.  Tampa - if they wish to go far in the playoffs - needs to develop more consistency on offense with the return of Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving.

Carolina Panthers (7-6)

THE surprise team of the NFL this year.  Carolina needs to find a way to score points, preferably some through the passing game.

Atlanta Falcons (4-9)

A team that started off with so much promise, went 1-4 in the third quarter.  What Atlanta needs is a healthy Michael Penix and Drake London for next season.

New Orleans Saints (3-10)

This is about where everybody thoughts would be.  What New Orleans needs is a complete makeover; just blow the team up except the youngsters, start accumulating draft assets and work from there.

NFC WEST

Los Angeles Rams (10-3)

The two best teams (but not two highest ranked teams) reside in the same division, and the Rams are one of them.  Being nitpicky, the Rams need to convert offensive third downs at a better clip, as they are 17th in converting at this point.

Seattle Seahawks (10-3)

See Rams, Los Angeles.  Seattle needs to be more efficient in rushing the football, as they are 18th in the NFL in that metric.

San Francisco 49ers (9-4)

San Francisco goes 3-1 in the past quarter and styed exactly the same in the divisional rankings.  What they need, more than anything, if they want to make noise in the playoffs, is to re-introduce Ricky Pearsall into the offense so that he is a legitimate threat.

Arizona Cardinals (3-10)

By far the worst team in the division.  What the Cardinals need most is to understand Kyler Murray isn't it and that they need to part ways.

POWER RANKINGS - (The parentheses is the team's ranking at the midway point)

1.  New England Patriots 11-2 (3)

2.  Denver Broncos 11-2 (2)

3.  Los Angeles Rams 10-3 (7)

4.  Seattle Seahawks 10-3 (6)

5.  Green Bay Packers 9-3-1 (9)

6.  Los Angeles Chargers 9-4 (10)

7.  San Francisco 49ers 9-4 (11)

8.  Chicago Bears 9-4 (13)

9.  Buffalo Bills 9-4 (4)

10.  Jacksonville Jaguars 9-4 (14)

11.  Detroit Lions 8-5 (12)

12.  Houston Texans 8-5 (22)

13.  Philadelphia Eagles 8-5 (8)

14.  Indianapolis Colts 8-5 (1)

15.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-6 (5)

16.  Pittsburgh Steelers 7-6 (15)

17.  Carolina Panthers 7-6 (17)

18.  Dallas Cowboys 6-6-1 (19)

19.  Kansas City Chiefs 6-7 (16)

20.  Miami Dolphins 6-7 (29)

21.  Baltimore Ravens 6-7 (20)

22.  Minnesota Vikings 5-8 (18)

23.  Cincinnati Bengals 4-9 (25)

24.  Atlanta Falcons 4-9 (21)

25.  Cleveland Browns 3-10 (26)

26.  Washington Commanders 3-10 (24)

27.  New York Jets 3-10 (31)

28.  Arizona Cardinals 3-10 (23)

29.  New Orleans Saints 3-10 (30)

30.  Tennessee Titans 2-11 (32)

31.  New York Giants 2-11 (28)

32.  Las Vegas Raiders 2-11 (27)

Biggest Movers:  Houston Texans +10, Miami Dolphins +9, Indianapolis Colts -13, Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10

THREE-QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Defensive MVP - Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Carson Schwesinger, Cleveland Browns

Coach of the Year - Liam Cohen, Jacksonville Jaguars

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts (last time, as he is out for the rest of the season)

Picks of the Week - SUPER BOWL LVI

Horrible money weekend, primarily because I made my big bet Tennessee over Cincinnati in the money-line.  So, even though I went 6-0 on Sunday, still lost money for the weekend.  But what a freakin' weekend of games that it was!!!  Now, we have the conference championships.  Picks seem like they should be easy, but is that a copout?  Who knows.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread (and money line and over/under in the playoffs).  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams -4 at Cincinnati Bengals

I had the Rams winning the Super Bowl (over Kansas City) since the beginning of the year.  Their offense is settling nicely with both Cam Akers and Sony Michel, meaning the Bengals cannot just sit back and double Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham, Jr., or just rush Matthew Stafford.  Although, I have lost a lot betting against Cincinnati these playoffs.

Los Angeles Rams -$200 at Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

The Tennessee Titans sacked Joe Burrow nine times in the wild-card round.  And the Titans do not have Leonard Floyd, Von Miller, and Aaron Donald.

Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals OVER 49

Both teams average 27.1 points per game (tied for 7th), and both give up around 22.  Should be a good scoring game, so I'll take the over.

Cincinnati Bengals Field Goals (OVER 1 1/2)

All Cincinnati has to do is to move the ball into the Rams territory to be in field goal range for Evan McPherson, and he does not miss - at least not in the playoffs.  He did set a record for most 50-yard field goals in a season (12), so 2 field goals seems like a lock.

Evan McPherson OVER 7 1/2 points

If I think he is going to kick at least two field goals, I have to go with over 7 1/2 points.

Cooper Kupp's longest reception OVER 29 1/2 yards

He leads the NLF in targets, meaning he is likely going to be thrown to a lot, and even if he does not get open deep, 846 of his 1,947 regular season yards after the catch. meaning he could take a 15 yarder for over 30.

National Anthem UNDER 2:00 minutes

My standard bet, although last year the line was 2:10.

Matthew Stafford OVER 1 1/2 Passing Touchdowns

Stafford has thrown at least 2 TDs in all but one game dating back to mid-November, and now with Odell Beckham, Jr. being comfortable in this offense, there are more weapons for Stafford to survey against Cincinnati's 26th ranked passing defense.

Los Angeles Rams -$135 OVER 3 1/2 Sacks (Bet $135 to win $100)

The Rams could challenge the Super Bowl record for most sacks in a game - which is currently 7.

Aaron Donald -125 OVER 1.0 Sacks (Bet $125 to win $100)

See above.

Von Miller -200 OVER .5 Sacks (Bet $200 to win $100)

See above.

Cam Akers -$120 Receiving Yards OVER 16 1/2 (Bet $120 to win $100)

Akers is going to be a highly utilized weapon today.

Joe Mixon $-125 OVER 24 1/2 receiving yards (Bet 125 to win $100)

Like Akers, Mixon's value is just being open in space, including wheel routes.  He has gone over this number in each of his last 5 games, and could be utilized to minimize the Rams' pass rush.

Big Bets

Los Angeles Rams -$200 at Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

The Tennessee Titans sacked Joe Burrow nine times in the wild-card round.  And the Titans do not have Leonard Floyd, Von Miller, and Aaron Donald.

Not as confident giving up points, but I just think the Rams are the much better overall team.

Cincinnati Bengals Field Goals (OVER 1 1/2)

All Cincinnati has to do is to move the ball into the Rams territory to be in field goal range for Evan McPherson, and he does not miss - at least not in the playoffs.  He did set a record for most 50-yard field goals in a season (12), so 2 field goals seems like a lock.

Two field goals seems easily doable.

Last Week's Record:  10-8

Playoff Record:  20-15-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Playoff Big Bet:  1-2

Year-to-Date Record:  163-144-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-12
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($305)

Playoff's Winnings (Losses):  ($304)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($646)  

Picks of the Week - Conference Championships

Horrible money weekend, primarily because I made my big bet Tennessee over Cincinnati in the money-line.  So, even though I went 6-0 on Sunday, still lost money for the weekend.  But what a freakin' weekend of games that it was!!!  Now, we have the conference championships.  Picks seem like they should be easy, but is that a copout?  Who knows.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread (and money line and over/under in the playoffs).  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Cincinnati Bengals

This Kansas City offense has been outrageous in the playoffs, averaging 42 points per game, and you have to go back to week 13 to find them scoring less than 28.  Yes, they lost to the Bengals in Week 17, but the Chiefs had already clinched by that point, and the Bengals were fighting for their playoff lives.

Kansas City Chiefs -$350 v. Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $350 to win $100).

The money line on Cincinnati (+$290) is almost enough to make me hedge my bet, but this is Kansas City's third year in a row in the Super Bowl.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54 1/2

Kansas City's offense is clicking on all cylinders right now, and even in week 17 when the Chiefs lost, the teams scored 65.

Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

This is the game that the Rams have been waiting for all season.  They picked up Odell Beckham, Jr. and Von Miller for the Super Bowl, not just for the regular season.  Yes, San Francisco has won 6 in a row against the Rams, but not 7.

Los Angeles Rams -$170 v. San Francisco 49ers

I had the Rams against Kansas City in the Super Bowl since the very beginning of the season.  No reason to change now.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams UNDER 46

I can't pick ALL overs.

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54 1/2

Kansas City's offense is clicking on all cylinders right now, and even in week 17 when the Chiefs lost, the teams scored 65.

This will be a scoring bonanza.

Last Week's Record:  7-5

Playoff Record:  17-12-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-1

Playoff Big Bet:  1-1

Year-to-Date Record:  160-141-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($335)

Playoff's Winnings (Losses):  ($1)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($341)  

Picks of the Week

This is already a crazy week.  Three games postponed from their original times so that now we have double-headers on Monday AND Tuesday.  And with people dropping like flies out of the active lists for Covid, who even knows which players are going to be eligible.  But, that notwithstanding, since we have a game tonight, I will be making my picks for the entire weekend.  If something major causes a change, I will update, but planning on riding this one out.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Los Angeles Chargers

Taking the away team on a short week?  Yes.  Giving points in a divisional rivalry game?  Yes.  Especially when that team cannot cover Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.  Good start to the week.

Indianapolis  Colts -2 1/2 v. New England Patriots

There aren't many teams hotter than the Indianapolis Colts right now, winners of 4 of their last 5, but New England is one of those teams, having won 7 straight.  The Colts, with Jonathan Taylor Thomas are second in the NFL in rushing, and the one kink in the Patriots' 3rd ranked defense is that rank only 18th in rushing defense.

Buffalo Bills -13 v. Carolina Panthers

Carolina is a mess, having not only lost 3 games in a row, but doing so while rotating quarterbacks, injuring Christian McCaffrey and losing to the Falcons.  Buffalo NEEDS this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars -5 v. Houston Texans

I am playing the firing of Urban Meyer is addition by subtraction here.  Plus, maybe James Robinson will get all the carries now.

Tennessee Titans +1 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Every bone in my body was telling me to pick Pittsburgh here, but for some reason I just cannot do it.

Detroit Lions +12 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Unlike my Buffalo pick, where I am giving up lots of points because Buffalo needs that win, Detroit always plays tough and Arizona doesn't need this one.  Cardinals still win in a close one.  Plus Arizona is on a short week.

New York Jets +10 at Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are a mess due to Covid, and losing Jaylen Waddle for this game is huge!!!  However, the team was able to activate Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed from the Covid list, so they will have somebody besides Duke Johnson available.  Bet on a huge game by Mike Geisicki, though, but this game will be close.

Dallas Cowboys -10 at New York Giants

Given this wacky season, I'll give double digits in a divisional game only because the Giants are the 26th ranked defense in the NFL going against the NFL's best offense, and second-highest scoring team.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 at Denver Broncos

We will see if the Bengals want to make the playoffs or not.  They face a challenging Broncos defense, but they need to right the ship after two straight losses.

San Francisco 49ers -9 v. Atlanta Falcons

San Francisco is just that much better than Atlanta right now.

Green Bay Packers -7 at Baltimore Ravens

If Lamar Jackson cannot go, the Packers cover this spread easily.

Tampa Bay Buccanneers -11 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

The quarterback situation in New Orleans is shaky at best, but without Sean Payton, they shouldn't have a chance.

Cleveland Browns -3 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are (rightfully pissed) at having to move this game to Monday.  That anger is likely going to be a distraction.  And, with Baker Mayfield out in Cleveland, we will see a whole ot of Nick Chubb, and the Raiders have the 26th best run defense in the NFL (and 31st in scoring defense).

Chicago Bears +6 v. Minnesota Vikings

Who needs coordinators?  Or, as the Bears have shown all year, who needs an actual coach?  (#Fire Matt Nagy).  Most of Minnesota's games are close, so that is how I am playing this pick.

Los Angeles Rams -6 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

The move to Tuesday keeps the Rams from playing on a short week.  Plus, the Seahawks' loss of Tyler Lockett to Covid is worse than the Rams' loss of Darrell Henderson.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Washington Football Team

So, Gardner Minshew can actually throw, if he has to play again in place of Jalen Hurts.  Can we say the same thing about Kyle Shurmur?

Big Bet:

Los Angeles Rams -6 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

The move to Tuesday keeps the Rams from playing on a short week.  Plus, the Seahawks' loss of Tyler Lockett to Covid is worse than the Rams' loss of Darrell Henderson.

Los Angeles' victory over Arizona last Monday night showed us what they can actually do as a football team, and should be just as scary to the NFC as Kansas City's 7-game win streak is to the AFC.

Last Week's Record:  8-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  108-100

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($25)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($935) 

Picks of the Week

PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS!!!

A time to re-set the mindset from the season (even though I finished with three straight winning weeks (percentage-wise, lost a small amount last week).  Let's just dive right in.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game.  No big bet for $250 this week, because I will also be making bets on the money line and the over/under. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
There is no question that the Raiders are the much better team, except for say, they have to start their third-string rookie quarterback for the first time in the playoffs on the road against the NFL's number 1 ranked defense.

Houston Texans -150 v. Oakland Raiders (Bet $150 to win $100)
I think that it goes without saying that if I am going to pick the Texans to win by more than a field goal, that they would win the game outright.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (37 1/2) UNDER
Brock Osweiler hosting Conner Cook.

Detroit Lions +8 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle's defense has been less than stellar since Earl Thomas has went down, and they struggled to defeat the lowly San Francisco 49ers in week 17 after losing to the Arizona Cardinals at home the previous week.  Matthew Stafford has had a helluva season (more yards, more touchdowns and less interceptions than Russel Wilson).  Since the retirement of Calvin Johnson Stafford has been forced to spread the ball around.  He will miss Theo Riddick as a running back, hell, he will miss a running game, but look for Eric Ebron to make a big play or three with Earl Thomas not in the game.

Detroit Lions +325 at Seattle Seahawks (Bet $100 to win $325)
This isn't the same Seahawks teams as in the past.  Thomas Rawls has only averaged 3.2 yards per rush in filling in for the retired Marshawn Lynch, and Christine Michael is in Green Bay.  I really shouldn't trust the Lions, or Matt Stafford for that matter, but the +325 line is too hard to pass up.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (44) OVER
Somebody has to score in the NFL, and since Houston will beat Oakland 12-6, the points have to be scored in this game.

Miami Dolphins +11 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Miami defeated Pittsburgh earlier in the year, but that was primarily because they knocked out Ben Roethlisberger (enter Landry Jones), and because nobody was prepared for Jay Ajayi.  Well, guess what, people are prepared for Jay Ajayi and they still cannot really stop him.  This game stays pretty close, even though Pittsburgh is hot.  The pass rush of Ndamukong Suh inside and Cameron Wake with Dion Jordan (ha - that's funny) outside will put lots of pressure on Roethlisberger.

Miami Dolphins +475 at Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $100 to win $475)
Now I honestly think Pittsburgh is going to win this game, but Pittsburgh is going off at -650 (other sites have between -600 and -650), which means the payoff opportunity is not there.  So, if there is even chance that Miami could win this game - and obviously there is because it already happened earlier this year - I am going to take that chance.

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (46) OVER
If both teams hit their statistical averages in scoring, and are around the statistical averages in points allowed, then this is right at the number.  I think it will be a bit more high scoring than that, say, 28-24.

Green Bay Packers -5 v. New York Giants
This is honestly the toughest one for me to pick as I don't know how this game is going to go.  I have not thought that the Giants were very good all year.  They cannot run, and in fact, were outrused by the Packers who are on their 37th starting tailback this season - and he is a Tight End.  The Giants are 23rd in passing defense, which should favor the Packers, but safety Landon Collins has 5 interceptions, and is playing like the best safety in football.  That being said, Aaron Rodgers has been on a roll, having won 6 straight.  I will ake the Packers to win more easily than most think.

Green Bay Packers -230 v. New York Giants (Bet $230 to win $100)
For much of the same reason as outlined above.  I really feel that the Packers are going to win this game outright, and at -230, it isn't that bad of a risk to win $100, especially considering that the Giants are only at +190 (some books at +200).  Give me Aaron Rodgers.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (44 1/2) OVER
Green Bay might score 31 by themselves.


Last Week's Record:  9-7
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  132-121-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($35)

Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1,560)