Picks of the Week

This is already a crazy week.  Three games postponed from their original times so that now we have double-headers on Monday AND Tuesday.  And with people dropping like flies out of the active lists for Covid, who even knows which players are going to be eligible.  But, that notwithstanding, since we have a game tonight, I will be making my picks for the entire weekend.  If something major causes a change, I will update, but planning on riding this one out.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Los Angeles Chargers

Taking the away team on a short week?  Yes.  Giving points in a divisional rivalry game?  Yes.  Especially when that team cannot cover Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.  Good start to the week.

Indianapolis  Colts -2 1/2 v. New England Patriots

There aren't many teams hotter than the Indianapolis Colts right now, winners of 4 of their last 5, but New England is one of those teams, having won 7 straight.  The Colts, with Jonathan Taylor Thomas are second in the NFL in rushing, and the one kink in the Patriots' 3rd ranked defense is that rank only 18th in rushing defense.

Buffalo Bills -13 v. Carolina Panthers

Carolina is a mess, having not only lost 3 games in a row, but doing so while rotating quarterbacks, injuring Christian McCaffrey and losing to the Falcons.  Buffalo NEEDS this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars -5 v. Houston Texans

I am playing the firing of Urban Meyer is addition by subtraction here.  Plus, maybe James Robinson will get all the carries now.

Tennessee Titans +1 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Every bone in my body was telling me to pick Pittsburgh here, but for some reason I just cannot do it.

Detroit Lions +12 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Unlike my Buffalo pick, where I am giving up lots of points because Buffalo needs that win, Detroit always plays tough and Arizona doesn't need this one.  Cardinals still win in a close one.  Plus Arizona is on a short week.

New York Jets +10 at Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are a mess due to Covid, and losing Jaylen Waddle for this game is huge!!!  However, the team was able to activate Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed from the Covid list, so they will have somebody besides Duke Johnson available.  Bet on a huge game by Mike Geisicki, though, but this game will be close.

Dallas Cowboys -10 at New York Giants

Given this wacky season, I'll give double digits in a divisional game only because the Giants are the 26th ranked defense in the NFL going against the NFL's best offense, and second-highest scoring team.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 at Denver Broncos

We will see if the Bengals want to make the playoffs or not.  They face a challenging Broncos defense, but they need to right the ship after two straight losses.

San Francisco 49ers -9 v. Atlanta Falcons

San Francisco is just that much better than Atlanta right now.

Green Bay Packers -7 at Baltimore Ravens

If Lamar Jackson cannot go, the Packers cover this spread easily.

Tampa Bay Buccanneers -11 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

The quarterback situation in New Orleans is shaky at best, but without Sean Payton, they shouldn't have a chance.

Cleveland Browns -3 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are (rightfully pissed) at having to move this game to Monday.  That anger is likely going to be a distraction.  And, with Baker Mayfield out in Cleveland, we will see a whole ot of Nick Chubb, and the Raiders have the 26th best run defense in the NFL (and 31st in scoring defense).

Chicago Bears +6 v. Minnesota Vikings

Who needs coordinators?  Or, as the Bears have shown all year, who needs an actual coach?  (#Fire Matt Nagy).  Most of Minnesota's games are close, so that is how I am playing this pick.

Los Angeles Rams -6 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

The move to Tuesday keeps the Rams from playing on a short week.  Plus, the Seahawks' loss of Tyler Lockett to Covid is worse than the Rams' loss of Darrell Henderson.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Washington Football Team

So, Gardner Minshew can actually throw, if he has to play again in place of Jalen Hurts.  Can we say the same thing about Kyle Shurmur?

Big Bet:

Los Angeles Rams -6 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

The move to Tuesday keeps the Rams from playing on a short week.  Plus, the Seahawks' loss of Tyler Lockett to Covid is worse than the Rams' loss of Darrell Henderson.

Los Angeles' victory over Arizona last Monday night showed us what they can actually do as a football team, and should be just as scary to the NFC as Kansas City's 7-game win streak is to the AFC.

Last Week's Record:  8-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  108-100

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($25)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($935)