Picks of the Week - NFL Week 9

Well, last week was back to losing.  My only solace is that we are all collectively doing poorly this year.  And if you say you are not - you are lying!!!  I am in a picks confidence league where we pick games straight up - and GOD WAS LAST WEEK BRUTAL FOR EVERYBODY!!!  So I got that going for me - which ISN'T NICE!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Yes, I know that Miami is the home team on a short week, but Baltimore looked sharp last week - as did the Dolphins, to be fair (Cue:  "To Be Fair!" chorus from Letterkenny) - but Baltimore will have Lamar Jackson back, and the Dolphins, well won't.

Chicago Bears -2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Not sure that I like this pick very much, except the penalties against the Bears, especially the offense, have to come down at some point, right?  Joe Flacco is settling in well at QB - I mean who wouldn't with J'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins - but that defense is brutal (31st overall, 30th in passing defense, 32nd against the run and in scoring defense), so I have to pick a bounce-back game from the Bears.

 

Denver Broncos +1 1/2 at Houston Texans

Other than the records, these two teams are incredibly evenly matched, especially on defense where Houston has the best defense in the NFL (1st in total defense AND scoring defense), and Denver is close behind (5th in scoring/6th in total defense).  So in cases like this, I will take the points in what should be a close game.

San Francisco 49ers -2 1/2 at New York Giants

I ordinarily would hate selecting a west coast team playing in the 1:00 window on the east coast, especially one GIVING points, but two main factors here for me:  (1) San Francisco received a bit of a comeuppance last week losing to the Texans, so they should be fired up for this game (and Ricky Pearsall should be returning); and (2) The Giants entire fanbase - and the fandom of every white NFL fan in America - deflated last week with Cam Skattebo's injury.  

Indianapolis Colts -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Although this is technically a battle of two first-place teams, these are not the same caliber of teams.  Pittsburgh is in first place by virtue of injuries to Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow and the complete implosion of the Baltimore Ravens defense.  Indianapolis is in first place because of its NFL leading scoring offense - which just so happens to be incredibly balanced (6th in rushing and 6th in passing - 3rd in total offense).  Pittsburgh is 27th in total offense, which ranks better than its 30th ranked defense.  They do have a chance to show us something this week, but gimme Indianapolis and its two - yes TWO - MVP candidates - Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor.

Green Bay Packers -12 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

F' it.  Why not!

Detroit Lions -9 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

Detroit looked like Detroit again last week, which is bad news for the Vikings, who might be hard-pressed to stop the second-highest scoring team in the league.

Los Angeles Chargers -8 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

I am picking against the Titans, likely for the rest of the year.  They need to get Cam Ward some serious playmakers, because he has actually looked good at times.  But they don't have those playmakers now.  The Chargers do, even with their injuries at running back.

New England Patriots -5 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Is it possible that Mike Vrabel just suffered from the curse of Jeff Fisher (8-8) in Tennessee and that he might actually be a really good coach?!

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

I am 100% sure that I do not like picking as many road favorites as I have already (this is 6), but I also know that nobody is sure what the Raiders are even doing.  They really should just trade Maxx Crosby.  the Jaguars themselves are really gambling with their treatment of Brian Thomas (see what I did there?), so I am interested in seeing how that unfolds.  I am sure Jacksonville is better, and Travis Hunter is getting more-and-more comfortable in his role(S!)

New Orleans Saints +14 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

I would love to say that my analysis of this game swings on my vast investigation and research into how much of a jolt a team gets by just simply starting a new quarterback with the hopes and optimism that this person could be their long-term answer (Tyler Shoough), but it really just is the two touchdowns plus.

Buffalo Bills +1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The eye test really answers this game in the opposite, as Kansas City has been playing much better than Buffalo lately, but Buffalo did hang 40 last week - albeit on Carolina - plus they are getting points and Kansas City is on a short week.  Let's go ..... Buffalo!

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Sam Darnold has been very steady leading the NFC West leading Seahawks' offense this year (109.2 rating, 8th in passing and 13th total offense), but this is more about how much the Commanders miss Jayden Daniels and the fact they are on a short week.

Dallas 66Cowboys -2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

I don't know how Arizona has 3 wins, and this time they have Jacoby Brissett starting.  Marvin Harrison, Jr. is going to end up wasting the majority of his younger years.

Byes:  Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

I don't know how Arizona has 3 wins, and this time they have Jacoby Brissett starting.  Marvin Harrison, Jr. is going to end up wasting the majority of his younger years.

I didn't really know what to do here:  Green Bay is giving up too many points, Denver, the Chargers and Indianapolis are all on the road.  So, I settled here.

Last Week Record: 5-8

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 54-67

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-6

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($545)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,660) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 6

An actual .500 week percentage-wise, but lost the Big Bet, as a number of HUGE upsets occurred, and six teams rallied from double-digit deficits to win outright.  This hurt me in some (See New England Patriots) and helped me in others (See Carolina Panthers).  Either way, super-weird year this year as neither Kansas City nor Baltimore are on track to make the playoffs, and Baltimore is in SERIOUS trouble   And, teams like Jacksonville and Seattle are having banner starts to their seasons.  Like I said, weird.  Might need to start varying away from the traditional gambling rules - who knows.  A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 1/2 at New York Giants

Other than their records and the fact that Philadelphia is the defending-Super Bowl Champion, nothing about the stats say Philadelphia.  The Giants offense is better (20th to 30th - including the fact that the Giants are 13th in rushing offense and the Eagles with Saquon are 25th!), AND the Giants defense is marginally better (27th to 30th).    But, the Eagles score (12th in scoring, and are moderate in scoring defense (16th), and this pick violates two gambling rules - never give points on the road in an intra-divisional game and always pick the home team on a short week.  So, perhaps this will hit.

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 over New York Jets (in London)

With the travel in London, and with the understanding that weird things happen in the overseas games, I was looking for something, anything, upon which I could take the points in this game.  The best thing the Jets have going for them is that they are the 3rd best rushing offense in the NFL.  BUT, the Broncos are 5th best in defending the run and 2nd in Scoring Defense.  Denver it is, hopefully by a lot.

Indianapolis Colts -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals now-starting running back Michael Carter averages 2.74 yards per carry.  Indianapolis' offense is cruising, with the 4th best Total Offense, 4th best Passing Offense, and 2nd highest Scoring Offense.  Its 3rd best Scoring Defense doesn't hurt either!

Los Angeles Rams -7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

No official word on if Lamar Jackson will play or not, but he is likely out.  Better chance that Kyle Hamilton plays.  I hate taking Pacific teams in the 1:00 slot when they play in the Eastern time zone, but this is the week to flip-the-script, especially with the second-best Total offense in the league (Rams) going against the 31st-ranked Total Defense (Ravens).

Cleveland Browns +5 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Cleveland's defense is 2nd in the NFL in Total Defense, 4th in Passing Defense and is the best team in the NFL in stopping the run. Quinshon Judkins has added a much-needed jolt to the rushing game, averaging 4.8 yards per carry in a bell-cow roll, with the team getting a jolt from Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford when they spell Judkins (6.2 and 11.2 yards per carry respectively).  Yes, the Steelers are 301 and in first place in the AFC North and are clearly more talented overall than the Browns.  And, they have won 8 straight games coming off a bye - which is the case this week.  So, they should win this game, but does a 21-17 game seem about right?  It does to me.

Jacksonville Jaguars -1 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

These two teams are probably the most (positively) surprising teams in the NFL, and are both poised to make a run for the playoffs this year.  Sam Darnold leading Seattle's fifth-ranked passing offense is surprising, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba's breakout is not.  Liam Cohen's best decision was to trade Tank Bigsby - not because he isn't talented but because there is now no confusion as to who the number 1 running back is (Trevor Etienne, if you don't know), and the Jaguars offense has clearly rallied behind him as they are 5th in the NFL in rushing, with Etienne being 4th in individual rushing.  For this game, I am going with the tried-and-true axiom of taking the east coast team in the 1:00 time slot versus a Pacific Time Zone opponent, even though Jacksonville is on a short week.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Going against the betting rules here even though the Chargers have lost Najee Harris (previously) and now Omarion Hampton from their offensive backfield because the defense gives up the 6th least amount of points in the league, and more importantly BECAUSE THE MIAMI DOLPHINS ARE THE WORST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE RIGHT NOW!!!  I am surprised that Mike McDaniel survived last weekend's collapse against the Carolina Panthers with his job intact.

Dallas Cowboys - 2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Great comeback by the Panthers last week, but the Cowboys are NOT the Miami Dolphins.  Despite the Cowboys having the worst defense in the NFL (32nd in Total Defense; 32nd in Pass Defense; 29th in Scoring Defense; and 23rd in Rush Defense), they do score the 4th most points in the league, and Javonte Williams might be the comeback player of the year so far this season.

New England Patriots -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

This was a very difficult pick to make.  Yes, the Patriots are coming off a stunning victory over the Buffalo Bills, but New Orleans somewhat righted itself offensively last week - granted it WAS against the New York Giants.  Drake Maye is spreading the ball around and playing at a high level.  New England maybe starts a roll toward the playoffs.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

This is all about taking points.  Both teams are 1-4, and Las Vegas looks a little better than Tennessee, but neither team scores a lot of point (14.6 per for Tennesse; 16.6 per for Las Vegas (31st and 30th in the NFL respectively), and neither team stops the other teams from scoring, giving up 28.2 per game for Tennessee (26th) and 27.8 per game for Las Vegas (25th).  Given those numbers, I'll take the points.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Really good matchup between two 4-1 first place teams, that are pretty evenly matched.  Offenses are comparable, as are the defenses.  Both have momentum, as the Niners upset the Rams last week and the Buccaneers beat the Seahawks.  Really nothing that I can put my finger on here other than just taking the home team in what the linemakers think is basically a toss-up as well.

Cincinnati Bengals +14 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Look, I know that Green Bay is monumentally better than Cincinnati, but, the Bengals are still NFL players, and 14 1/2 is a LOT of points.  That's it.  That's my reasoning.

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are on a disappointing short week, after squandering the game against what is starting to look like a really good Jacksonville Jaguars team on Monday night.  Detroit scores in bunches (34.8 points per game - tops in the league).  Kansas City is relatively pedestrian offensively for a team that has Patrick Mahomes, although it is possible that Tyquan Thornton is developing into a great accompaniment to Xavier Worthy as a weapon.  Detroit getting the points and scoring a lot of points.

Washington Commanders -4 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

Yes Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears offense is much improved, and yes they are on a 2-game winning streak, and yes, they basically had that game against Washington last year with inferior talent to this year's squad before the Hail Mary, but Washington looked really, really good against the Los Angeles Chargers last week in their 27-10 win, and that leads me to believe they will handle the Bears at home on Monday night.  A positive for Bears fans, Ben Johnson has never lost a game as head coach coming off a bye week.

Atlanta Falcons +4 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Buffalo will be angry after losing last week to the New England Patriots, but Atlanta is a tougher out than you would think given that they are 2-0 and lost 30-0 to Carolina.  Even with that drubbing, they are the best team in the NFL in Total Defense (1st in Passing Defense/16th in Rushing Defense) and 16th in Third Down Defense.  They are also 6th in Total Offense (6th against the run).  Should be able to at least keep this close, although I expect the Bills to win.  Plus, Atlanta is coming off a bye.

Byes:  Houston Texans, Minnesota Vikings

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Dallas Cowboys - 2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Great comeback by the Panthers last week, but the Cowboys are NOT the Miami Dolphins.  Despite the Cowboys having the worst defense in the NFL (32nd in Total Defense; 32nd in Pass Defense; 29th in Scoring Defense; and 23rd in Rush Defense), they do score the 4th most points in the league, and Javonte Williams might be the comeback player of the year so far this season.

I really wanted to take the Commanders here, but this just seems like the biggest mismatch on the board.  Dak Prescott has a 101.1 rating on the season and Bryce Young has a 79.5.   Javonte Williams is third in the NFL in rushing with 447 yards and second in rushing touchdowns.  George Pickens is second in TD receptions.  Too much firepower.

Last Week Record:  7-7

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  35-43

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-4

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($235)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,740) 

And, even after Week 1, gambling is still gambling.  The comebacks on both Sunday and Monday nights really hurt, as the swings at the end of the fourth quarter resulted in two losses from what looked like two very good wins, and ultimately a $420 swing ($100 per game that I didn't win, to $110 per game that I lost due to the vig).  But hey, at least the Joe Flacco Rebirth Tour continues in full effect covering my Big Bet!!!

For those new to WeMakeItRain, I will select each game, placing a $100 wager on all but one game.  That game, the Big Bet, will be for $250, and is obviously the one I think is the biggest guarantee of the week (yeah, right?!).  All picks are against the spread, and their will be no over/unders in this column until the playoffs (when the number of games is fewer).  Anyway, let's get to the picks!!!

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

A refrain that you will read over-and-over-and-over again this  year, take the home team on a short week.  Doesn't hurt that the Packers looked like one of the best three teams in Week 1 - the others being the Bills and Ravens.

Detroit Lions -6 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

So the Bears simultaneously looked like the Bears, and looked like a much-improved team, taking a 14-3 Minnesota squad down to the wire while the Bears defense was missing three starters, including two cornerback that would have been responsible for covering Justin Jefferson.  But, the Bears played Monday night, and the Lions have a lot to prove after they looked ordinary against the Packers.  If the Bears had a full week, I might honestly take these points, but they don't.

Los Angeles Rams -5 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Beware the road favorite, but luckily for betting me, Nashville plays in the Central Time Zone - not Eastern - so I am not as concerned with travel as I ordinarily would be.  The Rams won a low scoring game against the Houston Texans, and the Titans lost a close battle to the Denver Broncos, despite Titans receivers dropping some critical passes.  I think Tennessee's game was more of a function of Denver not playing well, and I think Los Angeles takes this one handily.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Both teams had hard-fought battles in Week 1, the Steelers winning a shootout against the Jets and the Seahawks falling to the 49ers, Seattle is travelling east and playing at 1:00, and Aaron Rodgers is playing like Aaron Rodgers.

New York Jets +6 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Ok, Ok, calm down.  The Jets are not going to WIN this game.  But, as I stated a number of times last week, I hate selecting road favorites in intra-divisional games.  Plus, given that the Bills started with a huge comeback win against Baltimore, this might be a little bit of a letdown game.  Also, the Jets looked spry last week against the Steelers.  Spry enough to keep this somewhat close.

Dallas Cowboys -5 1/2 v. New York Giants

Dallas looked like an actual football team last week in a 24-20 loss to the Eagles, and they were a couple of CeeDee Lamb drops away from defeating the defending Super Bowl champion.  The Giants, were, well the Giants.

Cleveland Browns +11 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore is going to have to be pissed after handing a sure-fire win to Buffalo last week, but ... 11 1/2 is A LOT of points to a divisional rival, especially one experiencing the Joe Flacco Rebirth Tour!!!  I'll take the points in an otherwise comfortable Ravens victory.

New Orleans Saints +3 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

This is the worst game of the week - yes even worse than the next game I will be selecting.  Mac Jones starting for the 49ers, George Kittle out.  They still have a healthy McCaffrey and Ricky Pearsall, but there is just too much unknown.  I'll take points at home in this situation, even if those points involve Spencer Rattler.

New England Patriots +1 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Just judging on Week 1, Miami IS the worst team in the league.  The problem is that Week 1 causes A LOT of overreactions.  The domestic assault investigation (yes another one) into Tyreek Hill is another issue.  Give me the points.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville proved a lot to me last week, which isn't much as I expected them to be one of the worst teams in the league this year, and the Jags finally cutting ties with Trevor Lawrence, but again, they only beat Carolina.  Cincinnati struggled with Cleveland, but I think we all expected that.  Is it possible that by jettisoning Tank Bigsby, Travis Etienne can become more comfortable and the offense can really settle down and play?  We will see.  Cincinnati will be in playoff contention all year, and they win at home by a touchdown.

Arizona Cardinals -6 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

Arizona looked good at times last week, albeit against the Saints, but a touchdown reception by the uber-talented Marvin Harrison, Jr. is HUGE!  Carolina, on the other hand, did not look good at all against Jacksonville.  I wish this was around 4 1/2 to 5 points to feel more comfortable, but it isn't.  I still have to give the points at home.

Denver Broncos -1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Is this the NFL or the Kentucky Derby?  All that seem to be missing are the old USFL Birmingham Stallions and the current UFL Birmingham Stallions.  Denver's offense struggled a bit against the Titans, and the Colts were ON FIRE against the Dolphins, but this game is a different type of race.

Philadelphia Eagles +1 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Philadelphia was challenged by Dallas last week, so the question is ... Has Philly taken a step back, or is Dallas pretty good?  We have been asking the step-back question about Kansas City constantly over the past few years, but even then, they never do, even when they do.  Philly is still better overall, especially on the lines, so I will take the points.

Atlanta Falcons + 3 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota really showed us something in the fourth quarter against the Bears, and they seem like they could be a dangerous team this year.  But, Atlanta needs to rebound badly from their loss to Tampa Bay in order to avoid starting 0-2, and Minnesota is on a short week.  Minnesota 28-27.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 1/2 at Houston Texans

I was more disappointed by Houston than any other team last week.  9 points?  Really?  You always need to avoid overreacting to Week 1, but I can get points against the Texans right now?  Yes, please.

Las Vegas Raiders + 3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

I HATE this pick.  HATE it, HATE it, HATE it.  You get the picture?  Well, Pepster, why are you picking the Raiders, then?  Because it is early in the season and there is less to really study before making picks, so I really, really need to rely on traditional betting rules, like not taking a divisional road favorite.

BIG BET:

Dallas Cowboys -5 1/2 v. New York Giants

Dallas looked like an actual football team last week in a 24-20 loss to the Eagles, and they were a couple of CeeDee Lamb drops away from defeating the defending Super Bowl champion.  The Giants, were, well the Giants.

This just seems too obvious.  Cowboys played to the level of the Eagles last week, and the Giants played to the level of the Giants.  If this keeps up, Dallas will win big.  Javonte Williams also looks more than serviceable enough as the Dallas passing attack searches for balance from the running game.

Last Week Record:  7-9

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  7-9

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-0

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($140)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($140) 

Picks of the Week

 So last week was my worst week of the year.  Not only did I fall under .500, but I lost the big bet - a big bet that I even wrote was a horrible pick at the time I made it.  Perhaps sometimes I should listen to myself.  Anyway, perhaps a kick-start of a win on Thursday night can bring me out of the red for the season.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Arizaona Cardinals -2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Home team on a short week.  This was, finally, a great football game on Thursday night.  Week 1's Buffalo-Los Angeles matchup was a great game by the Bills, but not the Rams, and it was in Week 1, meaning not a short week.  Problem is, we will not get too many games on Thursday nights like this Arizona victory.

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

When teams do not score a lot of points (Indianapolis 17.2 per game and Tennessee 19.2 per game), I am going to want to take the points in the spread.  Plus, Matt Ryan is second in passing yards whereas Tennessee's defense is last in the NFL in pass defense.  This is a tough pick because Derrick Henry could have a huge game against Indianapolis' 20th ranked rush defense.

New York Giants +3 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Yes, the 5-1 Giants are underdogs on the road against Jacksonville.  Although I feel that New York's 5-1 record is not truly indicative of how average a team they are, they seem to come through when it matters most.  Plus, they are tied for 7th in scoring defense.  I'll take the points.

Carolina Panthers +13 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thirteen points in the NFL, on the road, in an intra-divisional game is A LOT of points.  I don't care if they did just trade Christian McCaffrey.  

Washington Commanders +4 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

So, did you know that Green Bay only averages 1 passing yard a game more than Washingon?  Sounds crazy, right?  Well, that changes as the Packers have the number 1 passing defense in the NFL, and Washington cannot run very well (24th in the NFL).  Of course, Brian Robinson is back and he looks lively.  So, you know what?  I am going to take the points, and expect a Taylor Heinicke bump.

Dallas Cowboys -6 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Detroit can score, as they are 3rd in the league in scoring offense.  But, the are alos last in the league in scoring defense, giving up an average of 32 points per game.  You read that right, 32 POINTS PER GAME!  Dallas's offense has looked pedestrian, at best, under Cooper Rush.  But, Dak Prescott is back.  Dallas makes a statement.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Honestly, this line looks a little high.  It should be about 4 1/2 in my estimation, but I am not an actuary (and THOSE people are the smartest people on the planet.)  Still, I am going to give the points for two reasons:  (1) Cincinati is 9th in passing offense and Atlanta is 31st in passing defense; and (2) Cincinnati is 3rd in third down percentage offense and Atlanta is 30th in third down percentage defense.  Frankly, you can score a lot of points if the other team cannot stop you on third-down.

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Our third consecutive 6 1/2 point spread, and trust me, I hate giving points on all three of the games.  But, I am going to do it, most reluctantly on this game and here is why.  Rushing.  But Pepster, Cleveland has the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL led by Nick Chubb, with some Kareem Hunt thrown in.  Correct, they do.  But, Baltimore is 8th in rushing defense, and could slow down the Browns' runners, some.  And, even with J.K. Dobbins out, Kenyan Drake is averaging more yards per carry than Nick Chubb.  Plus, Lamar Jackson is the 4th leading rusher in the NFL himself.

Denver Broncos +1 1/2 v. New York Jets

This pick is amazingly stupid, except there is a reason the spread is only 1 1/2.  First, the Broncos only give up 16 points per game.  Second, the Jets are travelling to altitude.  Third, is it possible that Wilson being out is the ultimate addition-by-subtraction?  Do the Broncos get a Brett Rypien/Josh Johnson bump?  I say yes.  Or even if they don't, Jets win 10-9.  Denver did play Monday night, which does not bode well for this pick, but Russell Wilson will not play today, and I think that makes the difference.

Houston Texans +7 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders might be the most disappointing team in the NFL right now, and, if they really want to make the playoffs, they have to start winning somewhere.  This looks like the right spot for that.  Easy pickings.  But, we know that sometimes the obvious bet isn't the smartest play.  Houston - as is typical in Lovie Smith-led teams - doesn't give up many points (13th in the league), and if they can hold true to that form today, they will win the bet, if not the game.  Josh Jacobs has himself a game, but the Raiders only win 27-21 in a backdoor cover (which I think is my first backdoor cover prediction this season.)

Los Angeles Chargers -5 v. Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith has been playing great football, and Kenneth Walker is an emerging star at running back, but the Chargers have won 3 in a row, doing it primarily by passing the ball with the 3rd best passing offense in football.  AND, Just Herbert gets Keenan Allen back from injury after having not played since week 1.  I hate this pick because the Chargers played Monday night, but Keenan Allen didn't, so I will keep it.

Kansas City Chiefs -1 at San Francisco 49ers

Honestly, I am picking the Chiefs because I believe there will be a over-exaggeration of the impacts on the Christian McCaffrey trade.  First, San Francisco can always run the ball, no matter the running back. Second, more passes to McCaffrey means a few less to Deebo, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle.  Third, that just seems to be the way the NFL works.  Plus, with San Francisco's expected increased reliance on their running game, Kansas City has the defense (4th in the NFL in rushing defense) to try and combat it.  Now, next week's game for the 49ers with a full week of practice for McCaffrey may be a whole different matter.

Miami Dolphins -7 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I hate overexaggerating the effects of one player, or one action, or just one of anything.  But, I am going to do it here.  Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa returns, and means the world to the Dolphins and their 2nd ranked passing offense - which now gets the Steelers and their 30th ranked passing defense.

New England Patriots -8 v. Chicago Bears

I have no faith that the Bears can score meaningful points against anyone, much less a Bill Belichick coached team.

Byes:  Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles

Big Bet:

Dallas Cowboys -6 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Detroit can score, as they are 3rd in the league in scoring offense.  But, the are alos last in the league in scoring defense, giving up an average of 32 points per game.  You read that right, 32 POINTS PER GAME!  Dallas's offense has looked pedestrian, at best, under Cooper Rush.  But, Dak Prescott is back.  Dallas makes a statement.

More points than I want to give up for a big bet, but worth it in this case, I think.  Dallas's defense has been amazing, and now the offense can be as well.

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  45-44-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($445) 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($440)

Picks of the Week

 

First winning week last week. Hopefully it is the start of a streak!!!  I am starting a bit late, honestly because I was watching last night's Saturday Night Live, so not too much time for analysis if I am going to get out to watch the Bears/Packers!  Of course, this means I am NOT watching the dumpster-fire that is Dolphins-Jaguars.  This is the first week of byes, so each game is more important in developing a winning streak than usual.  Although I am still 0-5 on the big bet.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Philadelphia Eagles +7 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thank goodness Philly's staff believes in anlytics, otherwise I would have pushed this bet instead of winning.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. Miami Dolphins (in London)

Jacksonville always outperforms in London.  Well, almost always.

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 at Chicago Bears

Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears almost as much as the McCaskey family.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Both putrid offenses, by Cincinnati's defense is middling.  The same cannot be said of Detroit's.

  

Kansas City Chiefs -6 1/2 at Washington Football Team

Both defenses are horrible (32nd and 31st respectively in scoring defense).  The best defensive unit is Washington's rush defense, and Kansas City doesn't rely on the run that much anyway.  Only because I just took 2 consecutive road favorites am I making it 3.

Carolina Panthers +2 v. Minnesota Vikings

I am not making it 4 consecutive road favorites, especially with Carolina's defense (1st in passing defense, 2nd in total defense, 3rd in scoring defense, and 8th in rushing defense.  They are also 1st in 3rd down conversion percentage defense.)

Indianapolis Colts -10 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Two 1-4 teams in a battle of horrific failutres.  I know I am giving up 10 1/2 points, but the Texans only score 17.8 on average.  Indy can score 27 on this Texans defense.

New York Giants +7 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

West coast team travelling east playing the early game.  

Baltimore Ravens -3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

I would have loved to have seen this game in the 4:00 slot.  Betting, again, against the west coast team travelling east playing the early game.

Arizona Cardinals +3 at Cleveland Browns

Yes Kareem Hunt is really good.  But, Kareem Hunt is much  better when the Browns have Nick Chubb.  Chbb's absence might affect the number 1 rushing team in the NFL.

Las Vegas Raiders +5 at Denver Broncos

Most teams play poorly in the face of adversity.  I think playing on the raod actually helps the Raiders.  I look for Carl Nassib and his position-mates Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue have a great game rushing Teddy Two Gloves.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Dallas is clicking on all cylinders, even defense where Trevon Diggs leads the NFL in interceptions.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 v. Seattle Seahawks

All you need to know is that Seattle brought in Blake Bortles for a tryout this week.  Didn't sign him, so Jake Luton is the backup.

Buffalo Bills -5 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

The Bills are cruising on offense  as the highest scoring team in the league.  But, they are also the best team in the league at preventing the opponent from scoring.

Big Bet

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Dallas is clicking on all cylinders, even defense where Trevon Diggs leads the NFL in interceptions.

I don't like taking road teams for my big bet, but road teams are covering at an unprecedented rate this year.  In fact, most casinos have moved the traditional 2 1/2 to 3 points given to the home team down to 1 1/2.

And, for personal reasons, I am riding with someone named Elliott, with 2 "L"s and 2 "T"s.

Bye Week:  Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers

Last Week's Record:  10-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  42-38

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $175

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($805) 

Professional Football Wrap-Up

Here are my thoughts from Week 11 of the NFL season.

Game of the Week

Cleveland Browns 21 Pittsburgh Steelers 7,  This game earns this award for everything except the actual play on the feel. Cleveland sent 2 Pittsburgh receivers - JuJu Smith-Schuster and Dionte Johnson - to the locker room because of helmet-to-helmet hits, -including one ejection.  Then, with time almost out, Browns defensive end Myles Garrett hits Mason Rudolph way late, holds him up for a couple of seconds and then slams him to the ground with his entire body weight.  Interestingly, this results in none of the actual 3 penalties that Garrett committed.  Rudolph reacts by trying to rip Garrett's helmet off, and when that doesn't work, but kicking Garrett in the nether regions trying to get Garrett's body weight off of him.  Garrett responds by actually ripping Rudolph's helmet off, and then swinging, and connecting, with the now helmetless noggin of Rudolph.  Markice Pouncey then comes him, hits Garrett a couple of times, shoves him to the ground, and with another Steeler on top of Garrett, kicks Garrett.  Rudolph - at this time yelling and screaming behind Pouncey, Cleveland Browns lineman Larry Ogunboji comes running in and shoves Rudolph to the ground from the back.  Garrett suspended indefinitely, but no shorter than the rest of the season, Pouncey for 3 games and Ogunboji for 1.  Pouncey likely would not have been suspended until he started kicking.  These teams play in two weeks. 

Best Team Performance

Baltimore Ravens.  For the second consecutive entry (the last one was week 9), the Ravens gave the best team performance, pummeling the Houston Texans 41-7 as Lamar Jackson cemented his place in the MVP race by throwing for 222 yards and 4 scores, and rushing for 86 more yards, as Houston had no answer for the mercurial Jackson.

Least Impressive Team Performance

Carolina Panthers.  The Panthers were absolutely obliterated by the now-resurgent Atlanta Falcons 29-3.  Christian McCaffrey showed some fight with 191 total yards, but this game was never close, not even at 0-0.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Dak Prescott, QB - Dallas Cowboys.  Trying to ensure that Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson do not run away with the MVP race, Prescott threw for 444 yards and 3 TDs, as the Cowboys defeated the Detroit Lions 35-27.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)

Maxx Crosby, DE, Oakland Raiders.  Crosby had 4 - YES 4 - sacks against the Cincinnati Bengals as the Raiders defeated the winless Bengals 17-10.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Jason Sanders, K - Miami Dolphins.  Only because he recovered only the second successful onside kick in the NFL this year.  Yes, HE recovered it.  Sanders kicked the ball along the ground before him in the second quarter with the Dolphins trailing the Buffalo Bills 16-7, and jumped on it as soon as the ball traveled 10 yards.

Most Impressive Team Performance (Premier League)

Off for international duty.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Premier League)

Off for international duty.

Goat of the Week

Myles Garrett, DE - Cleveland Browns.  You can't swing a helmet at another player, especially if that player is already helmetless and you swing at his head.  A long suspension is warranted.

Goat of the Week (Premier League)

Off for international duty.

Hit of the Week

Myles Garrett, DE - Cleveland Browns.  See above.

Breakthrough Performance

Bo Scarborough, RB - Detroit Lions.  The humongous running back out of Alabama finally got the opportunity to play after being re-called from the practice squad, and he gained 55 yards on only 4 carries and 1 TD, as the Lions lost to the Cowboys 35-27.  Taking advantage of the injury to Kerryon Johnson, and despite rumblings to the fact that two separate other backs were going to be featured by the Lions, Scarborough came in and showed why he was such a force for the Crimson Tide.

Finally

Deebo Samuel, WR - San Francisco 49ers.  Taking advantage of injuries in the receiving corps, Samuel caught 8 balls for 134 yards, showcasing his speed along the way.

Impact Injury

James Conner, RB - Pittsburgh Steelers.  Conner, who was supposed to be healthy for the Browns game after coming off a previous shoulder injury, was not and he was pulled early by Mike Tomlin and the rest of the coaching staff.  The Steelers are going to need Conner to advance to the playoffs. 

Team Rising

Atlanta Falcons.  Listen, I know that the Falcons are a long, long way off.  But, we cannot overlook two straight intra-divisional trouncings that they have put on rivals New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers in consecutive weeks, including their 29-3 win at Carolina this week.  .

Team Falling

Jacksonville Jaguars. After some intriguing performances by Gardner Minshew II in relief of Nick Foles, the Jaguars have proven only that they are not very good no matter who is behind center right now, after falling to 4-6 after a 33-13 loss to the Indianapolis Colts.  More indicative of the Jaguars value is that they have not beaten a team with an over .500 record this season.

Best Teams

(All teams will be ranked by record, even if teams with more losses may be better than a team with fewer losses, since Bill Parcells always said that you are what your record says.  The inverse is true for the Worst Teams rankings.) (Yes, I know that you could have a worse record and be better, see e.g., Baltimore Ravens, but we are working off record.)

1. San Francisco 49ers

2. New England Patriots

3. Baltimore Ravens 

4. Green Bay Packers

5. Seattle Seahawks

Worst Teams

(All winless teams will be ranked here until all teams have at least 1 win, then I will rank them based upon which teams I think are the worst, regardless of record.)

32. Cincinnati Bengals

31. Washington Racists

30. New York Giants

29. Miami Dolphins

28. Denver Broncos

Middle Teams

15. Pittsburgh Steelers
16. Philadelphia Eagles
17. Tennessee Titans

18. Carolina Panthers

Last Week's Trivia Question/Answer

Last Entry's Trivia Questions were:

In Week 7, Aaron Rodgers passed for 400 yards and 5 TDs, while also rushing for a TD.  What other quarterbacks (2) have done that in the history of the NFL?

Answer:  Norm van Brocklin and Mark Rypien.

Preview - Game(s) of the Week

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Atlanta Falcons.  Not because this game is important or has playoff implications, but the Buccaneers offense is prolific (2 of the top 3 receivers right now in the NFL), and the fact that the Falcons have been playing great makes this a must-watch.  

5. Dallas Cowboys v. New England Patriots.  Two playoff-contenders with serious flaws, but huge fanbases.  Both will likely learn what their respective teams really are.  Would be ranked higher if it wasn't cross-conference.

4. Seattle Seahawks v. Philadelphia Eagles.  We know the Eagles are not what they have been the past couple of years, but a win against the Seahawks could very likely change the course of their season.  Seattle - especially Russell Wilson - is playing great right now, so this game should be really good.

3. Manchester City v. Chelsea.  Two of the four teams at the top of the table battle at the Etihad.  The fourth and third ranked teams respectively seem to be going in opposite directions as City have a loss and a draw in their past two matches across all competitions (albeit the loss was to table-leading Liverpool), and Chelsea have won 2 and drew one across all competitions.  Manchester City is riding old favorites Sergio Aguero and Kevin de Bruyne, while Chelsea has been relying on newcomers Tammy Abraham and Christian Pulisic.  This battle should be great - if everyone is healthy.

2. Baltimore Ravens v. Los Angeles Rams.  This Monday night matchup is fantastic as Lamar Jackson is a much watch.  Not ranked number this week simply because the Rams' offense has been stagnant.  

1. Green Bay Packers v. San Francisco 49ers.  With a combined record of 17-3, this is easily the best matchup of the weekend, and could be a battle for home-field advantage.

Trivia

As the lone remaining winless team, the Cincinnati Bengals have the inside track to selecting first in the 2020 NFL Draft. Name the three players in Bengals history that were selected with the number 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft.  (Hint:  There were 3).

Sports Bar Review of the Week

Nectar
Seminole Casino - Coconut Creek
5550 NW 40th Street
Coconut Creek, FL  33073

I did not watch the games in a sports bar this week because I was attending the Third Eye Blind concert in the Seminole Casino - Coconut Creek in Coconut Creek, Florida.  We did, however, go to one of the bars in the casino to watch part of the night game.  This is a review of that bar - Nectar.

Nectar is technically classified as a lounge, and serves sushi and pizza.  We, however, had food before we went to the concert so we did not eat.

We ordered some drinks, which were mostly subpar.  Three of us ordered dirty martinis, which had absolutely NO dirtiness to them at all.  The double Patron on the rocks, however, was exactly as ordered (which should always be the case).

The atmosphere was really cool.  Loungy, but not douchy.  It had some couches around the edges, but had some booths and high top tables that made it look less bougie and more like an upscale bar.  Not a lot of televisions, but enough were you could see the game from anywhere (since there was only 1 game on at the time - and yes I know the goal of Nectar is not to be a sportsbar).  But, it worked.

Now, all of the minuses listed above (or N/As as to the food) are well limited by the AWESOME music played by the DJ.  She concentrated strictly on 80s and 90s R&B and hip-hop.  Yes, it had songs like the predictable but always enjoyable Jump Around, but it also played lesser-played (at clubs that is) songs like Too Close by Next and what I call the 90s ladies, Jade, SWV, and the like.  There was a small dance floor off to one side of Nectar, but that did not matter as everyone was out of their respective seats and just danced in all of the aisles.  This place was BUMPIN'.

Given that we were not expecting this lively atmosphere since we just wanted a couple of last drinks and a view of the game, this place was awesome.  Drinks and the fact we did not want food keep it from being rated a Russell Wilson or Lamar Jackson, so Nectar's rating is:

DAK PRESCOTT.

Are You Ready for Some Football?!!

It is that time of the year again, time for the start of college football.  What would the start of college football be without a preseason All-American list? Once again, I am here to give you my preseason All-Americans. As usual, there will be more than 11 a side, to account for the different types of formations (spread, three receiver set, 4-3, 3-4, etc). I explain some of my picks, while others I do not. Why? Because I can.  (Starters in capitals).

Offense

QB - DAK PRESCOTT, Mississippi State; Trevone Boykin, TCU; Connor Cook,  Michigan State - Prescott is the best returning quarterback for the college game.  Boykin is going to put up video game like numbers.  Cook, only because we do not know who is going to take the most snaps at Ohio State.

RB - NICK CHUBB, Georgia; EZEKIAL ELLIOTT, Ohio State; James Conner, Pittsburgh; Leonard Furnette, LSU; Samaje Perine, Oklahoma- All five of last year's pre-season All-American running backs.were drafted, and fairly high.  This year's group put up great numbers last year.  Can the keep it moving forward?

WR - TYLER BOYD, Pittsburgh; LAQUON TREADWELL,  Mississippi; Rashard Higgins, Colorado State; D'haquille Williams, Auburn; Pharoah Cooper, South Carolina - Higgins is the country's leading returning receiver and Boyd already has two 1,000+ yard seasons to his credit (the only wide receiver in Pittsburgh history besides Larry Fitzgerald).

TE - HUNTER HENRY, Arkansas; O.J. Howard, Alabama; Evan Engram, Mississippi - Despite playing on a team that throws four times a game, Henry led all SEC tight ends in receptions.  Howard makes a repeat appearance on this list.

OL - SPENCER DRANGO, Baylor (T); LAREMY TUNSIL, Mississippi (T); PAT ELFLEIN, Ohio State (G); LANDON TURNER, North Carolina (G);  JACK ALLEN, Michigan State (C); Ronnie Staley, Notre Dame (T); Greg Pyke, Georgia (G), Iowa; Max Tuerk, USC (C) - An entire new crop of lineman for this year's list.  Tunsil and Elflein could be potential stars.

Defense

DE - JOEY BOSA, Ohio State; MYLES GARRETT, Texas A and M; Shilique Calhoun, Michigan State - Bosa might have been the best PLAYER in college football at the end of last year.  Calhoun is making his second appearance on this list.

DT - ROBERT NKEMDICHE, Mississippi; A'SHAWN ROBINSON, Auburn; Adolphus Washington, Ohio State; Chris Jones, Mississippi State - Nkemdiche makes his second consecutive appearance on this list, after being selected a backup at end last year..

LB - SCOOBY WRIGHT, Arizona, MYLES JACK, UCLA; ERIC STRIKER, Oklahoma; Darron Lee, Ohio State; Leonard Floyd, Georgia; Cassanova McKinzy, Auburn - Jack is a do-everything player for the Bruins, and he is making a repeat appearance on this list as is Striker.  Nobody with the exception of Bosa was playing better than Scooby at the end of last season.  And of course, "I ain't much on Cassanova.  Me an Romeo ain't never been friends".

CB - VERNON HARGREAVES, III, Florida; KENDALL FULLER, Virginia Tech; Jalen Ramsey, Florida State;  Both starters return from last year's list.  Fuller has a chance to be GREAT, and if Hargreaves ever becomes as good as Hargreaves thinks he is, look out!

S - JEREMY CASH, Duke; TONY CONNOR, Mississippi; Jalen Mills, LSU; Vonn Bell, Ohio State; Quin Blanding, Virginia - Lots of potential in this secondary.  Bell gives the Buckeyes a player at each level of this defense.

Special Teams

K - ROBERTO AGUAYO, Florida State; Andy Phililips, Utah - Nobody else is even close to Aguayo.  I just added Phillips so that I could have both Utah kickers on the team.

P - TOM HACKETT, Utah; JK Scott, Alabama - Again, nobody is even really close to Hackett, who won the Ray Guy award as last year's best punter.  I selected Scott in case we need him to direct the orchestra, Whiplash style.

KR/PR - ALEX ROSS, Oklahoma; De'Mornay Pierson-El, Nebraska - Ross averaged almost 28 yards a kick return last year.  Plus, on this roster, he is hoping that Pierson-El does not pull a Single White Female.

The Ole College Try

Welcome to the return of the almost weekly perspective of college football. For those that don't remember, I write this column as if every player is a Heisman Trophy candidate. Why? Because it is ridiculously ludicrous that the networks, including the World Wide Leader, nay, especially the World Wide Leader, emphasize the Heisman Trophy race all season.  Consider this my sarcastic homage to stupid reporting.

Heisman Watch

Quarterback Edition

Favorite - Dak Prescott -After leading Mississippi State to the number 1 ranking in the country after consecutive defeats of Texas A and M and Auburn, Prescott is in the driver's seat for the award - and not just among quarterbacks.

Rising - Bryce Petty - Baylor -Leader of the most exciting offense in college football, and the Bears and undefeated.

Falling - Kenny Hill - Texas A and M - Was putting up some great statistics in replacing Johnny Manziel, but consecutive losses to Mississippi State and Ole Miss (even with 401 yards in the latter), hurt his chances.

WTF - Jameis Winston - Florida State - Another issue?!  Seriously?!

Running Back Edition

Favorite - Melvin Gordon - Wisconsin - Only if Gurley is suspended for more than one game.  Gordon is second in rushing in the FBS with 1046 yards, but he is not Todd Gurley.

Rising - Nick Chubb - Georgia - OK, so this might be a little facetious, but Chubb stepped in for Gurley and gained 143 on 38 carries.  Definitely putting in work.

Falling - Todd Gurley - Georgia - Do we know how much longer he will be suspended?  That is going to determine how far Gurley falls.

Sleeper - Tevin Coleman - Indiana - Leads the FBS in rushing with 1060 yards (8.8 average) and 11 touchdowns.  He is the primary reason that Indiana is a surprising 3-3.

Wide Receiver Edition

Favorite - Amari Cooper - Alabama - He had his first subpar game against a surprisingly stout Arkansas defense (2 catches for 22 yards), but he is still far-and-away the best receiver in college.

Kevin White - West Virginia - Second in receptions (by 1 catch) and first in yards in the FBS, and is about the only person who could challenge Amari Cooper for the Biletnikoff Award.

Sleeper - None.  Most of the quality receivers have already established themselves.

Defensive Edition

3.  Ramik Wilson - LB - Georgia - He is starting to play exactly like everyone thought he was going to this year.  Solidifying himself as a solid first round draft pick.

2.  Hau'oli Kikaha - LB - Washington - He now has 10 sacks, to lead the nation by a full 15% over the second highest sack total.

1.  Gerod Holliman - S - Louisville - Still stuck on 7 interceptions, meaning this week was the only game without one, but he is the stalwart on the NCAA's number 1 defense.

Player to Watch

Nick Chubb - RB - Georgia - Mostly so that I could have two consecutive weeks of "Nicks" as the players to watch, but also because he filled in so admirably for Todd Gurley.  Ok, that is stupid, so the real player to watch is ...

Leonard Fournette - RB - LSU - The number 1 ranked high school player last year is really coming into his own, having gained 140 yards on 27 carries with 2 TDs against Florida.

My New Favorite Player

Colby Delahoussaye - K- LSU - It takes talent, skill and cojones to kick a 50 yard field goal as time expires to win the game on the road in the SEC.

Players of the Week

5.  Everett Golson - QB - Notre Dame - Had a nice game for some momentum before the big showdown with Florida State by throwing for 300 yards and and 3 TDs, while adding 71 yards on the ground in a game in which Notre Dame needed every one of its scores to beat North Carolina 50-43.

4.  Nick Chubb - RB - Georgia - See above.

3.  Bryce Petty - QB - Baylor - Petty passed for 510 yards and 6 TDs as he led the Bears to 24 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to be previously undefeated TCU.

2.  Dak Prescott - QB - Mississippi State - The Heisman front runner helped the now number ranked Bulldogs defeat the Auburn Tigers by passing for 246 yards and 1 TD, and running for 121 yards and 2 TDs.

1. Terrence Plummer - LB - UCF - Nobody had as good a week on the gridiron as Plummer did in the Golden Knights defeat of Brigham Young.  Plummer finished the game with 128 tackles, 5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble and 1 fumble recovery.  Very reminiscent of the game Khalil Mack had last year against Ohio State that thrust him into the national spotlight.

Goat of the Week (Player Edition)

Tevin Westbrook - TE - Florida - Westbrook dropped an easy, uncovered 1 yard TD pass that would have resulted in the Gators going ahead of LSU by a touchdown with about 1:53 remaining.

Goat of the Week (Coach Edition)

Will Muschamp - Florida - Somehow, not so nimble quarterback Jeff Driskel had 21 rushing attempts, while the first four tailbacks on the roster had a total of 10 carries.

Predicted Playoffs/Championship Match Ups

Florida State (1) v. Michigan State (4)/ Baylor (2) v. (3) Alabama
Michigan State (4) v. Alabama (3)

I foresee the two Mississppi teams losing, perhaps with State beating Ole Miss and Alabama beating State, sneaking Alabama back into the fray.  Baylor stays undefeated, but they are not good enough to win their opening match.  I do not think Florida State is a top 4 team right now, but their schedule gets them into the playoffs undefeated.

Final Unbeatens

1. Mississippi State
2.  Mississippi
3.  Florida State
4. Notre Dame
5.  Baylor
5.  Notre Dame
6.  Marshall

Rant(s) of the Week

Todd Gurley - I do not know if you did something you should not have in taking money for your autograph, but I can tell you that it looks like he was set up.  An autograph broker, according to SBNation, has tried to sell the videotape that he has allegedly of Gurley signing autographs to news outlets, and the broker is the one that paid Gurley - or so he alleges.  I understand that if a player takes money to sign autographs that player is in violation of the NCAA rules, but to have been set up is even worse.  We can debate the inanity of the rule another time, but why is it always the sleaziest people hawking autographs that come out of these stories.  The reputable dealers - and the players and schools know who they are - never seem to be involved in these shenanigans.  FREE TODD GURLEY!

Under Performance of the Week

Missouri - With the opportunity to really stay in the battle for the SEC East, the Tigers are lambasted by Georgia 34-0, in a game that was not even that close.

Last Week's Trivia Answer

With his 28th career sack, Clemson defensive end Vic Beasley tied the school record that he now shares with Gaines Adams and Michael Dean Perry.  Adams was drafted in the first round of the NFL draft and Perry was drafted in the second - which bodes well for Beasley.

Trivia Question of the Week

Mississippi State has risen to the number 1 ranking in college football.  What was the original name of the institution?

Match up(s) to Watch

Texas A and M v. Alabama and Stanford v. Arizona State are both interesting games to watch this weekend, but neither of them make my top 4.  Those would be:

4.  Kentucky v. LSU - Kentucky is one missed delay of game penalty away from being 6-0 and 3-0 in conference.  As it is, Kentucky still controls its destiny in the SEC and LSU looked less than stellar against a lesser than stellarer Florida last week.  Mark Stoops has some athletes that can play.  Probably a school that could really contend in 2016.

3. Oklahoma State v. TCU - The Cowboys' only loss was to Florida State in game 1 of the season, while TCU's bookends that loss by falling last week to Baylor.  This game will shakeup the Big 12 for sure.

2. Baylor v. West Virginia - Last week Baylor was in this post because they played in a  Top 10 undefeated matchup against TCU.  This week the Bears are featured because this game has an over/under of 80.  This game is expected to be high-flying, and remember Baylor won 61-58 last week!

1. Notre Dame v. Florida State - No because it features two Top 5 ranked teams, or because GameDay is in Tallahassee, but primarily because the team that wins this game should - I say should - finish undefeated.

The Ole College Try

Welcome to the return of the almost weekly perspective of college football. For those that don't remember, I write this column as if every player is a Heisman Trophy candidate. Why? Because it is ridiculously ludicrous that the networks, including the World Wide Leader, nay, especially the World Wide Leader, emphasize the Heisman Trophy race all season.  Consider this my sarcastic homage to stupid reporting.

Heisman Watch

Quarterback Edition

Favorite - Dak Prescott - So long as Mississippi State keeps winning, Prescott is the odds on winner should the Heisman go to a quarterback (which as of now is not likely).

Rising - Connor Holliday - Washington State - He has thrown for 3,052 yards - tops in the FCS (second place has 2,165), and in a year in which the running backs are dominating, Holliday's statistics make him a worthwhile Heisman candidate.

Falling - Marcus Mariota - Oregon - Still a phenomenal player having a great season, but the loss at home to Arizona knocks him out of the favorite's seat, especially in a year with running backs like those below.

Running Back Edition

Favorite - Todd Gurley -Georgia - He is 6th in the FBS in rushing yards with 773 and 8 touchdowns, but no player in the NCAA is more important to his team than Gurley.  For those that are watching the game, he is easily the best player in college.

Melvin Gordon - Wisconsin - Right now he will be second in the Heisman race if I had a vote.  Third in the FBS with 871 yards (only 7 behind first place), and he is a difference maker on offense.  Might have jumped Hurley this week if the Badgers didn't lose to Northwestern.

Ameer Abdullah - Nebraska - Leads the FBS in rushing yards with 878, but has not risen further than 3rd as he only gained 45 yards against a tough Michigan State defense in the Cornhuskers loss this weekend.

Sleeper - None - the top three are the top three.  Period.

Wide Receiver Edition

Favorite - Amari Cooper - Alabama - Second in the FBS in yards and receptions, and even though Alabama fell to Ole Miss this week, he still caught 9 passes for 91 yards.

Kevin White - West Virginia - Fourth in receptions and first in yards in the FBS, and is about the only person who could challenge Amari Cooper for the Biletnikoff Award.

Sleeper - None.  Most of the quality receivers have already established themselves.

Defensive Edition

3.  Hau'oli Kikaha - LB - Washington - The senior linebacker has 7 sacks on the season and is really making a name for himself in an offense-laden conference.

2.  Vic Beasley - DE - Clemson - He is finally starting to live up to his pre-season hype, and his sack strip and fumble recovery-return for a touchdown of Jacoby Brissett is the type of play that makes everyone take notice.  His last two or three games have been outstanding.

1.  Gerod Holliman - S - Louisville - The sophomore had another interception this week, giving him 7 for the season, in only 5 games!  He has had at least one interception in every game that he has played.

Player to Watch

Nick Marshall - QB - Auburn - Suddenly it is the Auburn Tigers who look in control of the SEC West, which should assure them a run into the playoffs.  Of course, this division is so tough the winner could escape with two losses, and none of the toughest teams in the country make the final playoffs.

My New Favorite Player

JoJo Kemp - RB - Kentucky - He rushed for 131 yards and 3 touchdowns on only 17 carries as the Kentucky Wildcats defeated the South Carolina Gamecocks.  Despite the fact that the SEC East is hugely down this year, Mark Stoops is quietly building up a very good and athletic team in Lexington.

Players of the Week

This section will be more week specific as the season goes forward, but for the first week, it is hard to differentiate the players of the week from the players of the season, as the season has only lasted 1 week.

5.  Melvin Gordon - RB - Wisconsin - He was at it again gaining 259 yards against Northwestern.  Would likely be ranked higher if the Badgers were not upset.

4.  Dax Prescott - QB - Mississippi State - So instrumental in the Bulldogs victory over the Aggies this week.  He finished 20-26 for 268 yards and 2 Touchdowns passing, and 77 yards and 3 Touchdowns rushing.

3.  Todd Gurley -RB - Georgia - He ran all over Vanderbilt gaining 163 yards and scoring 2 touchdowns in a 44-17 victory.  His numbers would have been much higher if not for the fact that this game was over early.

2.  Connor Holliday - QB - Washington State - He was 49-70 for 734 and 6 touchdowns.  This was not a game for mere stat padding, however, as the Cougars needed every single one of those yards as they defeated Cal 60-59.

1. Mike Bercovici - QB - Arizona State - Although not as gaudy as Holliday's numbers, Becovici's 27-45 for 510 yards and 5 Touchdowns is more impressive given that the Sun Devils defeated the USC in Los Angeles.

Goat of the Week (Player Edition)

Treon Harris - QB - Florida - Leads the Gators on two scoring drives to win 10-0 by day, gets himself into a situation where a sexual assault is being investigated with him as the suspect, leading to his suspension pending the investigation by night.  I don't know if he did anything criminal, or even wrong, but has he not been paying attention the past year?!

Goat of the Week (Coach Edition)

Brady Hoke - Michigan - Because they are awful, he gets the pick again this week.

Predicted Playoffs/Championship Match Ups

Auburn (1) v. (4)Baylor/Michigan State (3) v. (2)Florida State
Auburn (1) v. Florida State (2)
I hate predicting rematches, but we could be on the route.  I know that Ole Miss and Mississippi State are ranked higher than other teams right now, but they play each other and Auburn, not to mention other tough games.  I have said it since Michigan State lost to Oregon opening weekend, that they are going to end up in the playoff.  Notre Dame is the wildcard, and I am not sold on them yet.  I probably should have them in Baylor's spot right now, but might as well take some chances.

Final Unbeatens

We have 10 unbeaten teams remaining, which means that we lost 7 this past weekend alone.  Here is where I rank them (in terms of how I think the team is, not how long they will remain unbeaten).

1.  Auburn
2.  Florida State
3.  Mississippi State
4.  Mississippi
5.  TCU
6.  Baylor
7.  Notre Dame
8.  Arizona
9.  Georgia Tech
10.  Marshall

Rant(s) of the Week

How on earth do we have game-ending and game-winning plays where the snap occurs after the play clock hits zero?  For the second time this season, the Florida Gators take the lead on a field goal in which the play clock is clearly 0 at the time the ball is snapped.  Now, admittedly, the snap occurs very quickly after the clock hits zero during normal speed, but in replay it is obvious.

The official word from the NCAA is that the back judge watches the play clock, and then when it hits 0, he looks to the play.  If the ball is then in motion, no penalty.  Why not just have a buzzer or some apparatus in the hand of the back judge that vibrates the instant the clock hits 0, so that the back judge only has to concentrate on the snap of the ball, and he can supplement the buzzer by paying attention to the clock when necessary?

Kentucky and Tennessee each lost games because of this - although Florida would have had another opportunity, just from 54+ yards (plus an addition (6:20) this week to beat Tennessee.

Under Performance of the Week

Wisconsin - There is no way that the Badgers should have lost to Northwestern.  Melvin Gordon had a great game, but the rest of the offense was nonexistent, as the team had 138 passing yards total for the game.

Last Week's Trivia Answer

The two colleges that each have three players start at quarterback this year in the NFL are:

North Carolina State:  Mike Glennon, Phillip Rivers and Russell Wilson (as both NC State and Wisconsin claim him); and

Michigan State:  Kirk Cousins, Brian Hoyer and Drew Stanton

Trivia Question of the Week

Clemson defensive end Vic Beasley, with his sack/strip/fumble recovery/touchdown this week has tied the Clemson career sack record with 28 sacks.  With whom is he tied?

Match up(s) to Watch

Honorable Mention - West Virginia v. Texas Tech - Not because this is that important of a game, but because 145 points could conceivably be scored in this game!

4.  Oregon v. UCLA - Two teams that in just one week went from playoff contenders to hoping to enter the Pac-12 Conference championship game. Both are offensive-minded, so a lot of points could be scored in this game.  Which team rebounds the best?

3. Ole Miss v. Texas A and M - The second straight huge game for both of these teams against division rivals.  The Aggies cannot afford their second conference loss, meanwhile the Rebels can continue their fantastic start to the season.

2. TCU v. Baylor - One of two top 10 match ups of unbeaten teams.   TCU is a lot better than anybody really knows, and Baylor can score against anyone.

1. Auburn v. Mississippi State - The second straight big game at home for the Bulldogs.  No doubt exists that this is the Game of the Week.

The Ole College Try

Welcome to the return of the almost weekly perspective of college football. For those that don't remember, I write this column as if every player is a Heisman Trophy candidate. Why? Because it is ridiculously ludicrous that the networks, including the World Wide Leader, nay, especially the World Wide Leader, emphasize the Heisman Trophy race all season.  Consider this my sarcastic homage to stupid reporting.

Heisman Watch

Quarterback Edition

Favorite - Marcus Mariota - Oregon - Added 329 yards passing with 5 touchdowns this week against Washington State, and the Ducks needed everyone of them.  Also showed the capacity for the big play, throwing for 1 TD of 80 yards and another for 57.  Did nothing to slide from the favorite position.

Kenny Hill - Texas A and M - In a blowout in which he did not have to play the entire game, he threw for 265 and added 57 yards rushing.  Kenny Football anyone?.

Dark Horse - Connor Halliday - Washington State - Matched Mariota play for play throwing for 436 yards and 4 Touchdowns with no interceptions.  He has 1901 yards for the season - which leads the FBS - and 16 TDs.  Will not win because the team is so bad.

Falling - Jameis Winston - Florida State University - Team won a close game against a good opponent with him on the bench due to his much publicized suspension for saying "an obscene phrase".

Running Back Edition

Favorite - Todd Gurley -Georgia - A ho-hum game for Gurley because the Bulldogs blew out Troy 66-0.  Still finished with 73 yards on only 6 carries, and he still has not had more than 20 carries in a game.

Rising - Ameer Abdullah - Nebraska - He had 229 yards and 2 touchdowns as Abdullah, and the Cornhusker offensive line, totally dominated their win against Miami.  He has 625 yards rushing for the year - second in the FBS, despite being the only true offensive threat for Nebraska.

Sleeper -Tevin Coleman - Indiana - Third in the FBS in rushing yards having gained 569 yards, on 26 less carries than Abdullah and 44 less carries that Pittsburgh's James Conner (699 yards).

Wide Receiver Edition

Amari Cooper - Alabama - Leads the FBS in receptions (43) and yards (655) yards, including torching Florida and the supposedly All-American candidate Vernon Hargreaves III for 201 this past week.  Easily the best wide receiver in the country.

Kevin White - West Virginia - .Second to Cooper with 42 receptions and 633 yards.

Nobody else is even worth mentioning.

Defensive Edition

3. Danny Shelton - DT - Washington - Leads the FBS in sacks with 7.

2.  Gerod Holliman - S - Louisville - His FBS leading 5 interceptions mean that the Cardinals defense does not miss first round pick Calvin Pryor all that much..

1.  Shane Ray - DE - Missouri - Tied for the FBS lead with the aforementioned Danny Shelton with 9 1/2 tackles for loss

Although, truth be told, I am still waiting for a defender to really put his individual mark on this season.

Player to Watch

Melvin Gordon - RB - Wisconsin - He had 253 yards rushing and 5 Touchdowns, on only 13 carries against an easily overmatched Bowling Green.  Still, the Badgers are finally using Gordon when they need him, instead of overlooking him like they did in the fourth quarter of the LSU game.

My New Favorite Player

Dak Prescott - QB - Mississippi State - Prescott was absolutely outstanding in the Bulldogs victory AT LSU.  He threw for for 268 yards with 2 TDs and 0 Interceptions, and also rushed for 105 yards a touchdown, putting the SEC West on notice for the rest of the season.

Players of the Week

This section will be more week specific as the season goes forward, but for the first week, it is hard to differentiate the players of the week from the players of the season, as the season has only lasted 1 week.

5.  Anu Soloman - Arizona - The freshman quarterback threw for 520 yards with 5 TDs, albeit with 2 interceptions, in Arizona's 49-45 victory over Cal.  Arizona quietly sits at 4-0, and although not likely to challenge for the conference title, could very well determine who does win by beating a favorite or two.

4.  Samaje Perine - Oklahoma - The freshman rushed for 242 yards and 4 touchdowns on 34 carries in the Sooners victory over West Virginia.  His career total before this game was 32 carries and 1 touchdown.

3.  Melvin Gordon - Wisconsin - Thoroughly dominated Bowling Green.  Also see Abdullah, Ameer.

2.  Amari Cooper - Alabama - It was as if the Florida secondary was standing still.

1.  Dak Prescott - Mississippi State - Really good stats, but more importantly, played great in a tough game, against a great opponent, in one of the hardest stadiums in which to play.

Goat of the Week (Player Edition)

Ammon Lakip - K - Clemson - Missed two field goals that would have won the game for the Tigers in Tallahassee.  One was from short range.

Goat of the Week (Coach Edition)

Will Muschamp - Florida - How this team manages to keep Jeff Driskel as the starting quarterback is absolutely astonishing to me.

Predicted Playoffs/Championship Match Ups

Oregon (1) v. Michigan State (4)/Alabama (3) v. Oklahoma (2)
Oregon (1) v. Oklahoma (2)
That is right - no Florida State.  As some of the undefeateds fall - and they have to as a bunch of them play each other - Michigan State bounces back into the Top 4 in  a weak Big 10.

Rant(s) of the Week

My real rant is going to be about Jameis Winston.  Not ranting about him, but ranting about how the college suspending him was utterly ridiculous and more conceived out of a lack of understanding among generations and races.  But that, right now, is bouncing around my head as a possible entire new column.

So for now, my rant of the week is as a fan, and not a columnist.  How on earth can everyone in the entire stadium, and everyone in the entire television viewing audience know that all Nebraska is going to do is to give the ball to Abdullah (which they did 35 times), and yet the defensive coordinator and other coaches fail to see that and try to do something about it?  The coaches can say that it wasn't the scheme, but guess what?  IT WAS THE SCHEME!!!!

Under Performance of the Week

Missouri - Losing to Indiana at home 31-27 is never good, much less for an SEC that claims that top to bottom it is better than every other conference.  It might be at the top, but the bottom of the SEC is not too spectacular this year.

Last Week's Trivia Answer

Clint Trickett threw for 511 yards in the game against Maryland.  Which West Virginia QB holds the record for most passing yards in a game, and which Mountaineer Quarterback holds the record for career passing efficiency?

Yards - Geno Smith, 656 yards, against Baylor, 2012
Passing Efficiency - Pat White 150.08

Trivia Question of the Week

This week is a total two-for.  (1) Ameer Abullah set the Nebraska total yardage record in the game against Miami.  Whose record did he break? (2) Blake Sims of Alabama had 484 yards of total offense against Florida.  Whose record did he break?

Match up(s) to Watch

4.  UCLA v. Arizona State - It's time for both of these teams to show us if they are for real or not.  But, this game is on at 10:00 EDT, and it is competing with an NFL game?  Never mind.

4.  Florida State v. North Carolina State - This is a very weak slate of games this week, so the fact that I want to see how the Seminoles respond to the return of Jameis Winston and playing an upstart NC State team.  Remember, Florida State has historically had some trouble in Carter-Finley Stadium.

3. Cincinnati v. Ohio State - Cincinnati has not beaten the Buckeyes since 1897, and Tommy Tuberville might be their best chance since Tim Murphy.  Ohio State is beatable, as we have seen, and the Bearcats have a lot going for them early this season.

2. Tennessee v. Georgia - Tennessee has recruited well the past few seasons, so they definitely have some athletes.  Georgia needs to play with a desperation to avoid falling to 0-2 in conference play.

1. Stanford v. Washington - The Huskies host the Cardinal while sporting a 4-0 record.  This is one of those games that could turn a major conference upside-down.