Picks of the Week

So, last week was HORRRRRRRIBLE.  I prefaced the column last week by saying that I did not pay attention at all to the preseason.  Perhaps I should have.  Not perhaps, I definitely should have.  It definitely would and could not have made last week's pics worse.  Believe me.  But, seriously, who had the Browns looking THAT bad.  Who had Cincinnati outgaining Seattle by over 200 yards? Seriously.  Well, hopefully I learned some things from last week, but am not going to super overreact to outcomes that were outside of the norm.  We shall see.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers -6 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Never take the visiting team on a short week.  It didn't pan out this week, but it does over 70% of the time.

Arizona Cardinals +13 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
There are a lot of competing rules at play in this game. Never take a west coast team travelling east and playing the early game.  And yes, I know that Arizona isn't "west coast", but they do not follow daylight savings time so they are in the Pacific time zone currently (technically Mountain Standard Time).  Bur, it is hard to cover a double digit spread, especially when it is basically two touchdowns.  So, I have a bid decision to make.  Baltimore will win, but not cover.  Arizona played a lot better in the fourth quarter last week, so I am going to say they are progressing a bit enough to keep this close. If they give David Johnson enough touches, they could keep the ball out of Lamar Jackson's hands enough to keep this within the spread.

Cincinnati Bengals -1 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
Two teams that have really yet to define themselves, but things look OK for both as of  now.  As stated earlier, Cincinnati lost to Seattle, but outgained them by 200+ yards.  San Francisco won last week, but it was over an underwhelming Tampa Bay squad.  The west coast travelling east rule also applies, so I will take the Bengals.

Detroit Lions +2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Both teams are coming off an overtime game last week, and were both underwhelming.  The Chargers pulled out a victory over Indianapolis Colts, while the Lions ended last week tied with the Arizona Cardinals.  Extra game time, plus the west travelling east, plus a road favorite gives me all the reason I need to select the Lions.

Minnesota Vikings + 2 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Selecting Green Bay after their defeat over the Chicago Bears last week would be the highest of overreactions, I think.  Green Bay actually did not look good in that win offensively, and Dalvin Cook is way more explosive than any single Chicago Bear.  I will take points in a divisional rivalry.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 8 1/2 at Houston Texans
The Texans looked absolutely great in last week's loss to New Orleans Saints, falling just to a last minute drive by Drew Brees (go figure).  And yes, the Jaguars are playing a rookie quarterback, but Gardner Minshew II looked good last week, and if this Jaguars defense plays the way they are supposed to play, this game could be a touchdown difference.

New England Patriots -19 at Miami Dolphins
Honestly, this spread is absolutely ridiculous, and taking a road double digit favorite in an intra-divisional game is preposterous and the height of overreacting to last week's Patriot win and Dolphins loss.  This spread is so ridiculous I am going to take it.

New York Giants +2 v. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo was underwhelming in its 17-16 defeat over the New York Jets while the Giants were soundly defeated by the Cowboys last week.  I feel the Bills will have a difficult time corralling Saquon Barkley (who doesn't).  The fact that the Giants are getting points at home means I will take them.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 v. Seattle Seahawks
The Steelers lost and looked bad.  The Seahawks won, but looked worse.  Pacific team travelling east and playing the early game means I take the Steelers and hope their offense shows some life this week.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Indianapolis Colts
This game is essentially a pick 'em among teams that surprised last week.  We are not sure if last week was an anomaly for one or both of the teams, but this is one way to find out. I will take the home team.

Dallas Cowboys -6 at Washington Racists
I hate road favorites, especially if they are intradivisional rivals, but in this case, I am not sure where Washington is going to find the offense, I mean, besides their mascot.

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 v. Chicago Bears
This game is incredibly important for both teams if they have their minds set on making the playoffs.  Only 12% of the teams that have started 0-2 have qualified for the playoffs, and both teams enter this game after week 1 losses.  I will take the points at home, and hope that if my beloved Bears do win and I lose this bet, I can still be happy.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Oakland Raiders
So the Raiders absolutely surprised everybody last week defeating the Broncos.  But, Pat Mahomes is not Joe Flacco.

New Orleans Saints +3 at Los Angeles Rams
I love that the Saints are getting points here.  The Rams haven't quite looked the same in about 4 or 5 games (dating back to last year).

Philadelphia Eagles -1 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Philadelphia has won 4 in a row against the Falcons. Given that the spread is so low, I will take the better team on a hot streak.

New York Jets +6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
Nobody, and I mean nobody wants to watch this game.  On paper, the Browns should beat the Jets, and that was before Sam Darnold contracted mononucleosis.  Trevor Siemian does have an over-.500 record as a starting quarterback in the NFL, so it isn't like he is being randomly thrust into a game.  Cleveland looked awful last week. I don't expect them to look that bad, or commit 18 penalties, but I am not sure they are ready to be a touchdown favorite either.

Big Bet
Dallas Cowboys -6 at Washington Racists
I hate road favorites, especially if they are intradivisional rivals, but in this case, I am not sure where Washington is going to find the offense, I mean, besides their mascot.
Picking a road favorite of any kind is against everything I believe in, but, this line is the one I like the most, so I have to take it given the shellacking I took last week.

Last Week's Record: 4-12
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  4-12
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($770)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($770)

NFL Picks of the Week

A horrible playoff predicting week, but it sets up great matchups for today.  Always trying to look at the positive, I suppose.  The four remaining teams are the top 4 seeds from the season, and the top 4 scoring offenses for the entire year: (Chiefs, Saints, Rams, Patriots - in that order), so that much of the analysis will center on things other than prolific scoring offenses.

The playoffs are different than the regular season in that there are fewer matchup, so because of this I will be selecting my picks via the spread, via the money line and with the over/under.  This allows 12 picks for the weekend.  I will still be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100 (except for the favorites on the money line, which will be selected to try to win $100.  Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New Orleans Saints -3 v. Los Angeles Rams
Since we know that both teams can score practically at will, we are going to have to focus on the defenses.  The visiting Rams have the 19th ranked total defense and 20th in scoring defense, but 23rd in rushing defense.  As much as was written and said about the Rams using both Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson to bash the Dallas Cowboys last week - both went for over 100 yards each - this could be a really big game for the other two-headed backfield which includes Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram.  Plus, New Orleans' defense, which finished 14th in total and scoring defense, has a stout rush defense finishing 2nd in the NFL and not giving up 100 yards to any single running back this  year.  Sheldon Rankins being out does hurt that front line a bit, but look for the Saints to win this game the old-fashioned way, by running and stopping the run.

New Orleans Saints -165 v. Los Angeles Rams (Bet $165 to win $100)
If I think the Saints are going to cover the spread, I definitely have to with the money line on this one, as the -165 line does not scare me away, especially since the Rams are only +140.  No need to hedge my bets.  I will bet against the team with the worst quarterback remaining, one that played well most of the season,  but struggled down the stretch.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints UNDER 56 1/2
The unders have been hitting way more than they should this playoff season, and I am definitely taking the over in the next game, so I am going under here.  Plus, both defenses played very well last week, giving me hope for a repeat performance.  Perhaps something like 28-20 Saints.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 v. New England Patriots
I do not buy into this whole "passing of the torch" game from Brady as the GOAT to Patrick Mahomes, as the up-and-comer defeats the all-time great.  Mostly because I feel that Dan Marino is the GOAT - man, nobody could fling it like him), but also because of matchups.  Everybody always says the Belichick schemes to take away the other persons best player on offense.  So, who does he plan against?  If he tries to take away Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelcie is going to have a ton of favorable matchups, and despite the fact Rob Gronkowski is in this game, Kelcie is the best tight end in football right now.  If the tries to take away Kelcie, not even Stephon Gilmore can cover Tyreek Hill man-to-man for the entire game.  Yes, New England beat Kansas City 43-40 earlier this year, but that was in New England, in week 6.  The Chiefs did outscore New England 31-19 in the second half, meaning they caught on to what New England was trying to do defensively.   New England's crowning grace is that they do not rely upon any one, two or even three weapons offensively, which could expose Kansas City's 31st ranked defense, but my guess is not by enough in Kansas City.

Kansas City Cheifs -160 v. New England Patriots
For all of the reasons I stated in the previous pick.  Plus, Patrick Mahomes was the best quarterback this year, and Tom Brady wasn't even close to that level.  Yes experience counts, but so does talent, and right now Mahomes has lots of it himself, and around him.

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 56 
I already feel that the Chiefs are going to score points, and Kansas City does have the 31st ranked defense in the NFL, so New England should score its share.  This number opened at 58 and dropped two full points to 56, which I suspect has more to do with the weather than anybody's faith in the defenses.

Big Bet
New Orleans Saints -3 v. Los Angeles Rams
The Saints have easily been the best overall team in the NFL for the entire season.  That has to count for something.

Last Week's Record:  4-8
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  135-134-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($525)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($1510)