For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Never take the visiting team on a short week. It didn't pan out this week, but it does over 70% of the time.
Arizona Cardinals +13 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
There are a lot of competing rules at play in this game. Never take a west coast team travelling east and playing the early game. And yes, I know that Arizona isn't "west coast", but they do not follow daylight savings time so they are in the Pacific time zone currently (technically Mountain Standard Time). Bur, it is hard to cover a double digit spread, especially when it is basically two touchdowns. So, I have a bid decision to make. Baltimore will win, but not cover. Arizona played a lot better in the fourth quarter last week, so I am going to say they are progressing a bit enough to keep this close. If they give David Johnson enough touches, they could keep the ball out of Lamar Jackson's hands enough to keep this within the spread.
Cincinnati Bengals -1 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
Two teams that have really yet to define themselves, but things look OK for both as of now. As stated earlier, Cincinnati lost to Seattle, but outgained them by 200+ yards. San Francisco won last week, but it was over an underwhelming Tampa Bay squad. The west coast travelling east rule also applies, so I will take the Bengals.
Detroit Lions +2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Both teams are coming off an overtime game last week, and were both underwhelming. The Chargers pulled out a victory over Indianapolis Colts, while the Lions ended last week tied with the Arizona Cardinals. Extra game time, plus the west travelling east, plus a road favorite gives me all the reason I need to select the Lions.
Minnesota Vikings + 2 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Selecting Green Bay after their defeat over the Chicago Bears last week would be the highest of overreactions, I think. Green Bay actually did not look good in that win offensively, and Dalvin Cook is way more explosive than any single Chicago Bear. I will take points in a divisional rivalry.
Jacksonville Jaguars + 8 1/2 at Houston Texans
The Texans looked absolutely great in last week's loss to New Orleans Saints, falling just to a last minute drive by Drew Brees (go figure). And yes, the Jaguars are playing a rookie quarterback, but Gardner Minshew II looked good last week, and if this Jaguars defense plays the way they are supposed to play, this game could be a touchdown difference.
New England Patriots -19 at Miami Dolphins
Honestly, this spread is absolutely ridiculous, and taking a road double digit favorite in an intra-divisional game is preposterous and the height of overreacting to last week's Patriot win and Dolphins loss. This spread is so ridiculous I am going to take it.
New York Giants +2 v. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo was underwhelming in its 17-16 defeat over the New York Jets while the Giants were soundly defeated by the Cowboys last week. I feel the Bills will have a difficult time corralling Saquon Barkley (who doesn't). The fact that the Giants are getting points at home means I will take them.
Pittsburgh Steelers -4 v. Seattle Seahawks
The Steelers lost and looked bad. The Seahawks won, but looked worse. Pacific team travelling east and playing the early game means I take the Steelers and hope their offense shows some life this week.
Tennessee Titans -3 v. Indianapolis Colts
This game is essentially a pick 'em among teams that surprised last week. We are not sure if last week was an anomaly for one or both of the teams, but this is one way to find out. I will take the home team.
Dallas Cowboys -6 at Washington Racists
I hate road favorites, especially if they are intradivisional rivals, but in this case, I am not sure where Washington is going to find the offense, I mean, besides their mascot.
Denver Broncos +2 1/2 v. Chicago Bears
This game is incredibly important for both teams if they have their minds set on making the playoffs. Only 12% of the teams that have started 0-2 have qualified for the playoffs, and both teams enter this game after week 1 losses. I will take the points at home, and hope that if my beloved Bears do win and I lose this bet, I can still be happy.
So the Raiders absolutely surprised everybody last week defeating the Broncos. But, Pat Mahomes is not Joe Flacco.
New Orleans Saints +3 at Los Angeles Rams
I love that the Saints are getting points here. The Rams haven't quite looked the same in about 4 or 5 games (dating back to last year).
Philadelphia Eagles -1 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Philadelphia has won 4 in a row against the Falcons. Given that the spread is so low, I will take the better team on a hot streak.
New York Jets +6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
Nobody, and I mean nobody wants to watch this game. On paper, the Browns should beat the Jets, and that was before Sam Darnold contracted mononucleosis. Trevor Siemian does have an over-.500 record as a starting quarterback in the NFL, so it isn't like he is being randomly thrust into a game. Cleveland looked awful last week. I don't expect them to look that bad, or commit 18 penalties, but I am not sure they are ready to be a touchdown favorite either.
Big Bet
Dallas Cowboys -6 at Washington Racists
I hate road favorites, especially if they are intradivisional rivals, but in this case, I am not sure where Washington is going to find the offense, I mean, besides their mascot.
Picking a road favorite of any kind is against everything I believe in, but, this line is the one I like the most, so I have to take it given the shellacking I took last week.
Last Week's Record: 4-12
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 4-12
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($770)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($770)
No comments:
Post a Comment