Sunday, December 15, 2019

Picks of the Week



What a great week last week.  Perhaps after 13 weeks I finally learned something.  Of course, after bragging about it here, I am going to get demolished this week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New York Jets +17 at Baltimore Ravens
That number just seemed big to me.  Moral of the story?  Home team on a short week.

Chicago Bears +4 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
These games always seem to be close, and should be more so now that Akiem Hicks is back for the Bears.

Carolina Panthers +6 v. Seattle Seahawks
i don't like this pick, but it is a west coast team travelling east and playing in the early matchup.  But, Russell Wilson has historically done phenomenal in these situations.  With a 6 point spread, Seattle can win, and Carolina still cover.

Cincinnati Bengals +10 v. New England Patriots
Cincinnati has been playing better with Andy Dalton back at the helm, and New England's offense has been going backward.  Patriots will likely still win, but by a touchdown.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 1/2 at Detroit Lions
Jameis - for better or for worse - has been slinging it, and he is playing for his job (and contract), whether in Tampa or otherwise.

Denver Broncos +10 at Kansas City Chiefs
I cannot pull the trigger on giving up double digits in this intradivisional rivalry, especially since Denver's offense looks entirely different with Drew Lock.  They aren't great, and Lock still has a long way to go, but at least it looks like I am watching an NFL team.

Miami Dolphins +3 at New York Giants
Do I need to say one more time how hard this team has been playing under Flores?  And, as the year end approaches, lots of Dolphins are playing for their jobs.  Plus, Fitzpatrick gets to pick on a team that just cut one of their cornerbacks because of a twitter feud.  Kudos to Eli for the way he handled himself while benched, but he just doesn't have the firepower - even with Saquon Barkley.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Houston Texans
I just feel that this Tennessee team is better than (1) the sum of its parts; and (2) we all think.  If this game was at Houston, I would probably pick the Texans.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 at Washington Racists
The Eagles now know they have a legitimate chance to take over the division lead, as the Cowboys host the Rams and the Eagles play the Giants in week 17.  This win could make next week's game against the Cowboys less important.

Cleveland Browns -3 at Arizona Cardinals
Cleveland's offense has looked more dangerous since Kareem Hunt arrived, without lessening the impact running of Nick Chubb.  This is just too much for Arizona.

Oakland Raiders -6 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have given up.

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers
Minnesota celebrates the return of Adam Thielen by defeating the Chargers.  But, I would be incredibly happy if the Chargers win this game outright.

Los Angeles Rams -1 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
Dallas has not defeated a team over .500 this season.  The only reason they are still in the playoff hunt is because their division is weak, and because they also haven't lost to a team under .500 all year.

San Francisco 49ers -10 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
I really hope that we get the 49ers offense from last week.

Buffalo Bills +1 1/2 Pittsburgh Steelers
James Conner is back for Pittsburgh, but only will split carries with Jaylen Samuels and Bennie Snell.  This leaves me in a fantasy football dilemma, but not in a picks dilemma.  I will take any points Pittsburgh gives me.

New Orleans Saints -9 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis gave this season as good run for 10 or 11 weeks, but just ran out of steam.  If the Saints play anywhere near the level they played last week, they win this in a walk.

Big Bet I
Oakland Raiders -6 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have given up.

In case you haven't seen it yet this week, or in previous weeks, the Jaguars have given up.

Big Bet II

Cleveland Browns -3 at Arizona Cardinals
Cleveland's offense has looked more dangerous since Kareem Hunt arrived, without lessening the impact running of Nick Chubb.  This is just too much for Arizona.

I am only picking a second big bet because I couldn't decide which of the two to choose, so I am picking both.  I would do I if I was actually limited to one because Oakland is at home.

Last Week's Record:  10-5-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  2-0
Year-to-Date Record:  102-106-1
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  10-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $750
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($960)

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