For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Home team, short week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 2 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers (from London)
Both teams are surprises this year. Tampa - because they are playing tough with the breakout player of the year in Chris Godwin and the second best run defense in the country; Carolina - because of undefeated as a starter Kyle Allen. I expect a close game so I am going to take the points.
Baltimore Ravens -11 v. Cincinnati Bengals
This is the year for going against established betting rules, as a double digit favorite in an intra-divisional game usually a big No-No. But, Cincinnati is 31st in rush defense and will try to stop the Ravens, that are second in rushing offense at 192.2 yards per game. This does not bode will for the Bengals.
Cleveland Browns +1 v. Seattle Seahawks
Just as I espoused about not staying with traditional betting rules, here I go abiding by one in the face of a line that screams to take the Seahawks. But, I will stay with the "west coast team travelling east to play the early game rarely cover" rule as I think Cleveland is due for a breakout game after being manhandled by the San Francisco 49ers last week.
New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
I have been as impressed with Gardener Minshew II as anyone, but I am taking the Saints because they are getting points. If the line was reversed and the Jags were getting 2 1/2 points, I would have to think about it and seriously consider taking it, but it is much more likely that New Orleans wins big, or this game is close, than the Jaguars winning big.
Houston Texans +4 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
I have gone back-and-forth on this game all day, and I have no idea which team to pick. Take the points.
Washington Racists -4 at Miami Dolphins
Worst game of the year. I cannot believe that I am taking Washington will giving points. But, I feel strongly that the Dolphins could go 0-16 against the spread.
Philadelphia Eagles +3 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
This game should be really exciting as both teams do some things on offense extremely well (Philadelphia 7th in scoring; Minnesota 3rd in rushing). I will take the points in a game that could go either way.
Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Only because David Johnson isn't playing, but I could easily see losing this bet.
San Francisco 49ers +3 at Los Angeles Rams
No Todd Gurley for the Rams, and the 48ers defensive line showed their mettle last week against the Browns. I expect that to continue. Strength against strength when the Rams have the ball as LA is second in passing offense and the 49ers are second in passing defense.
Tennessee Titans +2 at Denver Broncos
Denver just is not very good, despite their victory last week against the Chargers. I am taking Tennessee because of their defense (3rd in 3rd down percentage; 6th in scoring defense; 9th in total defense; and 10th in passing defense).
Dallas Cowboys -7 at New York Jets
The return of Sam Darnold, but i have no expectations for New York to perform well, as I have had mononucleosis, and there is no way he performed any football activities at any level until this week. Dallas has fallen back to earth a bit, and the Jets are just what they need to reassert some type of dominance in a football game.
Los Angeles Chargers -6 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Delvin Hodges. Enough said. But, to counter his first NFL start, Philip Rivers will be making his 214th straight start. At least Pittsburgh has Paxton Lynch to back up Hodges.
Green Bay Packers -4 1/2 v. Detroit Lions
Aaron Rodgers in a prime time game sounds good to me. I'll take it.
Byes: Buffalo Bills. Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, Oakland Raiders
Big Bet
New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
I have been as impressed with Gardener Minshew II as anyone, but I am taking the Saints because they are getting points. If the line was reversed and the Jags were getting 2 1/2 points, I would have to think about it and seriously consider taking it, but it is much more likely that New Orleans wins big, or this game is close, than the Jaguars winning big.
I like a lot of my picks, but didn't love one. I hate taking a road team as a big bet, but at least I am getting points.
Last Week's Record: 8-7
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 36-42
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($135)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($1,215)
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