Picks of the Week

Nowhere near the same NFL experience this week as last week, as almost nothing can compare with Lambeau Field, but at least I will be watching the games with a good friend that is a Charger fan; nothing like a good friendly rivalry.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Minnesota Vikings -17 v. Washington Racists
I never liked this line, but short week, Minnesota being home, and Washington being horrible meant I couldn't not take them.  All I needed was for them to not play soft and score a touchdown every now and then.

Chicago Bears -4 v. Los Angeles Chargers
No real reason for this, just hoping the "players only meeting" does something to spark the Bears.

Los Angeles Rams -12 v. Cincinnati Bengals
From Wembley Stadium, so no real home team, and both teams have been in London for quite some time.  Just going with the better team and hope that this plays out.

New Orleans Saints -11 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
Another double digit spread, and it seems like there have been a thousand of them already this year.  Drew Brees is back, and that isn't nothing despite the great stewardship of Teddy Bridgewater in Bress' absence.  David Johnson isn't back, but Chase Edmonds looked good in his replacement role.  I'll take the Saints, I guess.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
Such hit-or-miss teams on both sides of the field today, as we have seen some glimpses of great football from both of these teams, and some glimpses of horrible football from both these teams.  Tampa is 4th in scoring offense, 9th in passing offense and first in rushing defense. Tennessee is 4th in scoring defense and 8th in total defense, so their is some talent.  I'll go Tampa Bay for having some talent on both sides of the ball.

Indianapolis Colts -5 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
Denver is great on defense (3rd in passing defense and 4th in total defense), but is horrible on offense.  I will go with a more rounded Colts team behind Jacoby Brissett who is starting to realize that he really belongs as an NFL starting quarterback (QB Rating 101).  Plus, Denver's offensive line is horrible.

Seattle Seahawks -8 at Atlanta Falcons
I really hate taking a west coast team travelling west for the early games, but Matt Schaub is starting for an Atlanta team that just isn't very good anyway.  Passing offense is the only thing keeping Atlanta in any game (2nd in the NFL), and now their quarterback is likely out - I'll give the points.

Philadelphia Eagles -1 at Buffalo Bills
There is no real reason to select Philly in this game, other than the fact that they have so underachieved, that they need to win this game to possibly salvage their season.

Detroit Lions -6 1/2 v. New York Giants
Detroit better beat the lowly New York Giants or else they fall further down the potential playoff ladder.  Doing it by more than a touchdown could show that they belong in the playoff conversation.

Jacksonville Jaguars -6 1/2 v. New York Jets
It is pre-Halloween weekend, so no telling how many ghosts the Jaguars faithful will have floating around the stadium to try to punish Sam Darnold, but the ghosts of New York Jets past are likely restless after last week's ass-whipping at the hands of the Patriots.  It is possible that the Patriots destroyed the Jets' drive for the entire season.

San Francisco 49ers -5 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers
This San Farncisco defense is outstanding (8th in rushing yards, 3rd in 3rd down conversion percentage, 2nd in scoring defense and total defense, and 1st in passing defense).  Not sure how Carolina scores enough points to stay in this game.

Cleveland Browns +11 1/2 at New England Patriots
Not sure New England has the same motivation as last week, and I am definitely not as sure that Cleveland turns the ball over as much as the Jets did - especially early.  I am not saying that Cleveland wins, just keeps it under the spread.

Oakland Raiders +6 1/2 at Houston Texans
Despite the lopsided score last week, Oakland drove the ball against Green Bay very well, even outgaining the Packers.  This offense is 2nd in 3rd down conversion and 8th in rushing, so there is the opportunity to keep the ball away from the potent DeShaun Watson-led Texans' offense.  I'll take the points.

Green Bay Packers -5 at Kansas City Chiefs
Aaron Rodgers in a prime time game sounds good to me.  I'll take it, especially with no Patrick Mahomes.

Miami Dolphins +14 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Two touchdowns just seems to be a bit much, especially for a Mason Rudolph-led team.  Plus, Ryan Fitzpatrick is the master of the backdoor cover.

Byes:  Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys

Big Bet
Green Bay Packers -5 at Kansas City Chiefs
Aaron Rodgers in a prime time game sounds good to me.  I'll take it, especially with no Patrick Mahomes.
Need I say more?  Also considered, Detroit -6 1/2 v. New York Giants and Jacksonville -6 1/2 v. New York Jets.

Last Two Weeks' Record:  13-15
Last Two Weeks' Big Bet:  2-0
Year-to-Date Record:  49-57
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  4-3
Last Two Weeks' Winnings (Losses):  ($50)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,265)

Picks of the Week

On a bit of  a spiral, and we don't even want to talk about my college picks from yesterday.  That means with some good thought, this week could be the week to turn things around.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

Buffalo Bills + 2 1/2 at New York Jets
Although this is written on Sunday morning, I did text Sinickal and Hopps this pick, so they can confirm this pick.

Chicago Bears + 6 1/2 at St. Louis Rams
Primarily because the Bears have played pretty much every game - excepting Arizona - close.  Why change now?  Well, Todd Gurley for one thing, but Langford looks like a reasonable facsimile of Forte and Alshon Jeffrey is playing.

Jacksonville Jaguars +5 at Baltimore Ravens
Jaguars playing tough this year, and without Steve Smith, the Ravens offense is relatively inept.  Should be a close game, at least, so I will take the points.

Detroit Lions + 10 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
The way Green Bay has been playing, 10 1/2 seems like too big a line.  I am not saying that Detroit wins, but one touchdown sounds about right to me.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Miami Dolphins
Don't laugh, but this game could see a lot of points.  Both teams could easily just run up and down the field against each other.  I feel like Darren Sproles is the difference in this one.

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 v. Cleveland Browns
Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams v. Johnny Manziel and ?.  I will take the Steelers because of 140 yards for Williams.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers pick 'em v. Dallas Cowboys
Dallas has a bit more talent returning from injury, but Lovie has Tampa moving in the right direction.  One more Mike Evans play than Dez Bryant play is the difference.

Carolina Panthers -4 at Tennessee Titans
A road favorite, but I don't see Tennessee scoring a lot against this Panthers defense.  Carolina dodges a late Mariota rally that could cover the spread.

New Orleans pick 'em at Washington Racists
Brees has been throwing lately, and he could put up a bunch of yards and points again this week.  I am not sure what is going on with Washington's offense.

Oakland Raiders -3 v. Minnesota Vikings
The Raiders offense seems to be clicking with Carr, Murray, Cooper and now Crabtree.  The Vikings have had a nice season and are sniffing the playoffs, but the Raiders just might be for real.

Denver Broncos -4 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
The Broncos running game has to get started at some point this season, right?  No better time that against a mediocre run defense.

New England Patriots -7 1/2 at New York Giants
I can't ignore road favorites all the time, especially given the ineptness of the Giants offensive line.  The Patriots - even without Dion Lewis - should be able to move the ball at will against the Giants, and New England's pass rush should keep Manning from having enough time to throw the ball down the field to Beckham and Randle.

Arizona Cardinals +3 at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is trying to hang around the playoffs, but their offensive line has been struggling this year after the trade of Max Unger to New Orleans.  Cardinals defense has not missed a beat without Darnell Dockett, and their offense is downright explosive.  I think the Cardinals could win outright, so I will take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals -11 v. Houston Texans
Houston at 3-5 is doing better than most people thought, and could still win the horrific AFC South, but Cincinnati's offense is in full gear, and they could win by 17 this week.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 v. Cleveland Browns
Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams v. Johnny Manziel and ?.  I will take the Steelers because of 140 yards for Williams.

For my big bet, I would always prefer selecting a home team, either receiving points or not giving up too many points.  Six is a little more than I normally would like to give up for my big bet, but I just cannot see Cleveland stopping the Steelers offense.

Last Two Weeks: 12-14-1
Year-to-Date: 68-59-5
Big Bet Last Two Week: 1-1
Big Bet Year to Date: 7-2
Winnings (Losses) Last Two Weeks: ($355)
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date $1030

Picks of the Week

It has been awhile since I last posted, but to be honest, I have been on a bit of a roll making money and I didn't want to jinx it.  To confirm, I am in a picks pool, so that you can see the number of games I have picked correctly in the link immediately after this paragraph (my team is the Mad Cubans).  The last posted picks on this site was Week 13, so for my total numbers you can look at the number of wins for weeks 13-16.  I will add those to my totals below.  Only in week 13 did I have a guaranteed Big Bet, since we do not have such a thing in my picks pool.

http://games.espn.go.com/nfl-pigskin-pickem/2013/en/group?groupID=43052

Now, on to this week's picks.

Atlanta Falcons +6 v. Carolina Panthers
Carolina is a hot team coming into week 17, but they are not offensively dynamic.  As we saw last week against the 49ers, Atlanta can still move the ball.  I will take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati is a completely different team at home, having gone 7-0 so far this year; plus they are playing for a bye in the playoffs.  The Ravens are playing for their playoff lives, but they have already exceeded expectations this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 1- 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville has actually had a very interesting second half and is not that bad.  Even when the Colts win (usually against the tougher teams in the league), they do not dominate the score.

New York Jets +5 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
The Jets have one of the stingiest run defenses in the league and the Dolphins are one of the worst rushing offenses in the league.  That means all Miami will be able to try is to pass, and that plays right into the Jets pass rush.  Muhammad Wilkerson will have a helluva game after being snubbed from the Pro Bowl.  The Dolphins still might win, but it will be close.

Detroit Lions +3 at Minnesota Vikings
Detroit has been disappointing yes, but how are they getting points in this game?

New York Giants -3 v. Washington Redskins
This is a complete wildcard given that Mike Shanahan might be intentionally tanking this game or he might just call anything wild and unusual and really mess things up.  The Giants have actually been pretty good in the second half of the season.

Cleveland Browns +7 at Pittsburgh Steelers 
Pittsburgh actually has a chance to make the playoffs, but they have to win this game and have about 4,193 other combinations all occur at the same time.  Cleveland's defense is pretty stingy, and I would watch this game just to see the Antonio Brown/Joe Haden matchup out wide.

Green Bay Packers -3 at Chicago Bears
The Bears have been horrible against the spread, and now comes word that Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy and Randall Cobb will all be playing.  Ouch.

New England -7 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
New England with something on the line in the regular season - like a bye week in the playoffs - is one of the surest bets in football.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +12 at New Orleans Saints
I expect New Orleans to win this game, but Tampa Bay has been competitive under Mike Glennon, and should provide a tougher than expected game for the Saints.

San Francisco 49ers -1 v. Arizona Cardinals
I have been very late to the Arizona Cardinals bandwagon - in fact, I still do not trust them.  I mean pulling out a win in Seattle with Carson Palmer throwing 4 interceptions?  Really?!  Of course, not quite understanding Arizona has hurt me tremendously in my pics this year.  Them and San Diego.

Denver Broncos -10 1/2 at Oakland Raiders
I don't want to pick this game at all, because we don't really know how long the offensive stars for the Broncos will play, but I thank that they will play long enough to score a ton of points.

Kansas City Chiefs +10 at San Diego Chargers
The spread is only this high because Kansas City virtually has nothing to play for, while the Chargers, at home, have everything.  The Chiefs are injured on defense, but I still think they will keep it close.

Seattle Seahawks -11 1/2 v. St. Louis Rams
If this were earlier in the season, I would easily have picked the Rams and their defense to cover this spread.  However, after losing at home to the Cardinals last week, I think Seattle wants to make a statement to the league that last week was an anomaly, and should just come out and destroy the Rams.

Dallas Cowboys +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles
I expect the Eagles to win this game, but the initial spread was 3 points in favor of Dallas, and this swing occurring after the announcement that Romo was injured and not playing in this game.  Is Romo really worth a 10 point swing?  I do not think so, so I believe that this spread is a bit of an overreaction to Romo's injury.  Cowboys to cover, but Eagles to the playoffs.

BIG BET

Houston Texans +7 at Tennessee Titans
Houston is not good this year.  At all.  But, they have incredible talent on both sides of the ball, and the Titans are not blowing anybody out.  So I will take the touchdown, with the possibility that Houston wins outright and costs Mike Munchak his job.  This game is likely to determine whether I finish in the money or not for the season - assuming I have a good week.

Last Four Weeks' Record: 34-30
Year To Date Record:  107-108-6
Last Four Weeks' Big Bet: 1-0
Big Bet Year To Date: 8-5
Last Four Weeks' Winnings (Losses): $250
Year-To-Date Winnings (Losses): ($685)

Picks of the Week

Last week was abhorrent.  Clearly it is time that I put some thought and analysis into my picks, rather than just winging it.  Although by the time the games start tomorrow, I will likely have had several wings.

Detroit Lions -6 v. Green Bay Packers
The interior of the defensive line of the Lions (Suh and Fairley) have to be salivating at having to chase Matt Flynn instead of Aaron Rodgers.  Just too much offensive firepower for the Packers to compete with during a short week.

Dallas Cowboys -9 v. Oakland Raiders
Again, because of the short week I am taking the Cowboys.  With a full week of preparation, Matt McGloin might be ready, but Thanksgiving games are a different story.  Witten and Bryant with a couple of touchdowns each.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Baltimore Ravens
Although neither of these teams are as good as they have been for the past decade or so, this is an interesting intra-divisional game with both teams jockeying for playoff positioning.  The Steelers are streaking, and Roethlisberger has settled into a tremendous groove with Antonio Brown.  Plus, they are getting points in what is likely to be a close game.

Carolina Panthers -8 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina is hot right now, but so are the Buccaneers.  Cam Newton's statistics are down tremendously this year, however, this is by far his best year of play, and it shows in the Panthers' record.  He is spreading the ball around.  Mike Glennon is starting to settle in nicely, and has a great connection with Vincent Jackson, but Carolina's defense will be the story.

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 at Cleveland Browns
Maurice Jones-Drew is starting to resemble his former self.  Meanwhile, Cleveland is starting Brandon Weedon.  Joe Haden of the Browns is the best cornerback in football, but that does not matter when playing a team with no true receiver to have to stop.

Tennessee Titans +4 at Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee is getting points from a team that is completely different from the squad that beat the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos.  Andrew Luck, and this entire offense, just has not been the same since Reggie Wayne was injured, and Trent Richardson brought nowhere near the the running game that was expected from him.  The Colts are physical, but the Titans relish such play.

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
The Bears can score points.  That may be it at this point, but they can score points.  The Vikings secondary is suspect, and Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey and Martellus Bennett have been exploiting even good defensive teams.

Miami Dolphins + 1/2 at New York Jets
Really, the Dolphins are getting points?

Philadelphia Eagles -3 v. Arizona Cardinals
I just don't trust the Arizona Cardinals.  It isn't that I trust the Eagles more, but just a feeling that the Cardinals have to come down to earth sometime, right?  Nick Foles does seem to be hitting his stride, and although the Cardinals corners have been playing tremendously (if you don't believe me just ask them - especially Patrick Peterson), but the Cardinals spread it around to a lot of different players.  Call this one a hunch.

New England Patriots -7 1/2 at Houston Texans
You should know by now how much I hate taking road favorites, but with that being said we all saw what the Patriots did to the Broncos Sunday night.  The Texans are nowhere close to being the Broncos.

Buffalo Bills -3 v. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are a train wreck.  The Bills, at the very least, play with some fire.

St. Louis Rams +8 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers
The Rams always play their divisional foes tough.  San Francisco is playing a lot tougher lately, and the offense, especially the passing game, is starting to explode.  But, the Rams should keep this close with their defensive line leading the way to slow the 49ers, and their running game trying to keep Kaepernick, et. al. off the field.

Denver Broncos -4 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Denver scored enough to beat the Chiefs when they had Justin Houston and Tamba Ali - their two stud defensive ends.  Now those two are out.  Plus, Denver has to be pissed at the outcome of last week's game against the Patriots.  I look for this one to turn into a rout.

New York Giants -1 at Washington Redskins
The Redskins are a train wreck right now.  Although the Giants are not exactly good, they are better than at the beginning of the season, and they look to be gaining some momentum.  Their running attach behind Andre Brown and a resurrected Brandon Jacobs should wear down the Redskins, with Victor Cruz getting open for a couple of deep plays.

New Orleans Saints + 5 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
This is a tough line, as Seattle looks like the best team in the league again.  However, New Orleans will not be intimidated because of a loud stadium, as they play in what is likely the second loudest.  I honestly think the Saints can win this game outright, so I will definitely take the points.

BIG BET

Cincinnati Bengals + 1 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
I would have reluctantly picked the Bengals giving  1 1/2 points, and I checked to see if their was a mistake in the line, but no, the Bengals are getting points.  The week off should have recharged Dalton, Bernard and Green, and they should take advantage of the Chargers.  San Diego is hit-or-miss this year in games, and they do not want to get into a shootout with Cincinnati, as they will surely lose.  Plus, who is going to guard A.J. Green?  I wanted to take the Giants here, but I hate making the Thursday, Sunday or Monday night games my big bet.

Last Week's Record: 5-9
Year To Date Record:  73-78-6
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Big Bet Year To Date: 7-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($340)
Year-To-Date Winnings (Losses): ($935)