Picks of the Week - SUPER BOWL LVI

Horrible money weekend, primarily because I made my big bet Tennessee over Cincinnati in the money-line.  So, even though I went 6-0 on Sunday, still lost money for the weekend.  But what a freakin' weekend of games that it was!!!  Now, we have the conference championships.  Picks seem like they should be easy, but is that a copout?  Who knows.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread (and money line and over/under in the playoffs).  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams -4 at Cincinnati Bengals

I had the Rams winning the Super Bowl (over Kansas City) since the beginning of the year.  Their offense is settling nicely with both Cam Akers and Sony Michel, meaning the Bengals cannot just sit back and double Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham, Jr., or just rush Matthew Stafford.  Although, I have lost a lot betting against Cincinnati these playoffs.

Los Angeles Rams -$200 at Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

The Tennessee Titans sacked Joe Burrow nine times in the wild-card round.  And the Titans do not have Leonard Floyd, Von Miller, and Aaron Donald.

Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals OVER 49

Both teams average 27.1 points per game (tied for 7th), and both give up around 22.  Should be a good scoring game, so I'll take the over.

Cincinnati Bengals Field Goals (OVER 1 1/2)

All Cincinnati has to do is to move the ball into the Rams territory to be in field goal range for Evan McPherson, and he does not miss - at least not in the playoffs.  He did set a record for most 50-yard field goals in a season (12), so 2 field goals seems like a lock.

Evan McPherson OVER 7 1/2 points

If I think he is going to kick at least two field goals, I have to go with over 7 1/2 points.

Cooper Kupp's longest reception OVER 29 1/2 yards

He leads the NLF in targets, meaning he is likely going to be thrown to a lot, and even if he does not get open deep, 846 of his 1,947 regular season yards after the catch. meaning he could take a 15 yarder for over 30.

National Anthem UNDER 2:00 minutes

My standard bet, although last year the line was 2:10.

Matthew Stafford OVER 1 1/2 Passing Touchdowns

Stafford has thrown at least 2 TDs in all but one game dating back to mid-November, and now with Odell Beckham, Jr. being comfortable in this offense, there are more weapons for Stafford to survey against Cincinnati's 26th ranked passing defense.

Los Angeles Rams -$135 OVER 3 1/2 Sacks (Bet $135 to win $100)

The Rams could challenge the Super Bowl record for most sacks in a game - which is currently 7.

Aaron Donald -125 OVER 1.0 Sacks (Bet $125 to win $100)

See above.

Von Miller -200 OVER .5 Sacks (Bet $200 to win $100)

See above.

Cam Akers -$120 Receiving Yards OVER 16 1/2 (Bet $120 to win $100)

Akers is going to be a highly utilized weapon today.

Joe Mixon $-125 OVER 24 1/2 receiving yards (Bet 125 to win $100)

Like Akers, Mixon's value is just being open in space, including wheel routes.  He has gone over this number in each of his last 5 games, and could be utilized to minimize the Rams' pass rush.

Big Bets

Los Angeles Rams -$200 at Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

The Tennessee Titans sacked Joe Burrow nine times in the wild-card round.  And the Titans do not have Leonard Floyd, Von Miller, and Aaron Donald.

Not as confident giving up points, but I just think the Rams are the much better overall team.

Cincinnati Bengals Field Goals (OVER 1 1/2)

All Cincinnati has to do is to move the ball into the Rams territory to be in field goal range for Evan McPherson, and he does not miss - at least not in the playoffs.  He did set a record for most 50-yard field goals in a season (12), so 2 field goals seems like a lock.

Two field goals seems easily doable.

Last Week's Record:  10-8

Playoff Record:  20-15-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Playoff Big Bet:  1-2

Year-to-Date Record:  163-144-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-12
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($305)

Playoff's Winnings (Losses):  ($304)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($646)  

Waiting for College Football

As we approach the commencement of college football season, I feel that this is the appropriate time to unveil my preseason All-American team. At the urging of Jorge O., it is time to have a beer in hand, breakfast on the stove, and college football on the television. A few rules, although there are more than 11 offenseive and defensive players listed, the team is selected to account for the various offenses and defenses used around the country (trip receivers, spread, 3-4, 4-3, etc.). I chose to explain my picks in some instances, and not in others. Why? Because I can. Now here are the Pepster Preseason All-Americans.

Offense

QB - Kellen Moore, Boise State; Case Keenum, Houston - I had Moore as my second team NCAA All-American QB last season, and he returns. Keenum will put up tons and tons of stats. Moore may finish undefeated and gain a birth in the BCS Championship game. If I had to pick a surprise third QB, it would be Christian Ponder of FSU.

RB - Mark Ingram, Alabama; Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech; Jazquizz Rodgers, Oregon State; Dion Lewis, Pittsburgh; John Clay, Wisconsin - Ingram and Williams are returning from my post-season All-American list last season, even though Ingram may not be the best running back on his team (see Richardson, Trent). Williams is my preseason player of the year. Lewis and Clay will both post lots and lots of yards, and are likely conference player of the year candidates, especially Clay behind that big Wisconsin line.

WR - A.J. Green, Georgia; Michael Floyd, Notre Dame; Julio Jones, Alabama; Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma - I having been touting Green for a couple of years, and Floyd was likely Notre Dame's best receiver last year. It is now time for Jones to show the fruits of all of that talent of his. Broyles could catch 90 balls.

TE - D.J Williams, Arkansas; Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame - Ryan Mallet could make a real star out of Williams.

T - Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin; Jason Pinkston, Pittsburgh - Look for both offensives to strive this year.

G - Rodney Hudson, Florida State; John Moffitt, Wisconsin - Hudson was a Pepster All-American last year, and Moffitt will lead the interior of a great running game at Wisconsin.

C - Mike Pouncey, Florida - Only because his brother Maurkice is gone.

Defense

DE - Adrian Clayborn, Iowa; Cameron Heyward, Ohio State - Both very experienced, and both will wreak havoc on opposing offenses. Heyward is the son of former NFLer Craig "Ironhead" Heyward, so he must be tough.

DT - Jared Crick, Nebraska; Stephen Paea, Oregon State - Crick learned by playing next to the best, Ndamukong Suh, last season, and more than holding his own. Paea is a small mountain.

LB - Von Miller, Texas A & M; Greg Jones, Michigan State; Quan Sturdivant, North Carolina; Vontaze Burfict, Arizona State; Dont'a Hightower, Alabama; Sean Spence, Miami - All athletic beasts that will make a ton of tackles. OK, maybe Spence was a bit of a homer pic.

CB - Patrick Peterson, LSU; Brandon Harris, Miami; Janoris Jenkins, Florida - Harris among the leaders is passes defensed last year. Jenkins will make sure that Gators fans do not miss Joe Haden too much.

S - Rahim Moore, UCLA; DeAndre McDaniel, Clemson - The easiest position to select on the team, as both were high talents last year among the NCAA interception leaders

Special Teams

K - Matt Bosher, Miami - A little homerism, but, he is just the kicker.

P - Drew Butler, Georgia - Again, he is just the punter.

R - LaVon Brazill, Ohio University - A great returner, and he is from nearby my hometown.

Forgive me for any typographical errors, I didn't feel like proofreading this. I simply want to start college football season. Stay tuned for my weekly college football updates.