Picks of the Week - Divisional Round

Pretty good wild-card weekend picks-wise, as most of the games stunk.  I'll take that over picks being bad but having amazing games.  Let's see if I can continue this through the divisional round.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread (and money line and over/under in the playoffs).  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans -4 v. Cincinnati Bengals

A few things concern me with this pick.  First, this line opened at 2 1/2, and has jumped up to 4.  That means big money has come in on Tennessee, and you never want to be on the same side as the majority of the bettors in most occasions.  Second, Tennessee's defense, although 5th in scoring defense, was 25th against the pass.  So, I highly expect Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to make some big plays down the field.  But, Cincinnati's offensive line is atrocious and the Titans are 10th in sacks.  I expect Joe Burrow to be hit, a lot.  And, Derrick Henry returns.  Plus, he is fresh.  Tennessee wins.

Tennessee Titans -$200 v. Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

Much like the point spread, but money has poured in for Tennessee as the money line opened at -$145.  But, once again Derrick Henry is back.  Plus, Ryan Tannehill is way better than he is credited, meaning he and A.J. Brown could make some plays against Cincinnati's 26th ranked pass defense.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans Over 47 1/2

With two bad pass defenses, some big plays are there to be made.

San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Two pretty stingy defenses, with San Francisco's just a bit better than Green Bay's on the season (5th overall to 11th overall; 9th in scoring defense compared to 13th).  This game has all the makings of being a close game, much like their week 3 30-28 battle.  This game is likely to turn on a turnover (I'm looking at you Jimmy Garoppolo!)

Green Bay Packers -$235 v. San Francisco 49ers (Bet $235 to win $100)

Aaron Rodgers continues his F  You tour by leading his Packers to a hard-fought win against the 49ers.  The week off gets everyone healthy and rested, and we end up with a Packers versus Buccaneers/Rams NFC championship.  A San Fran win would be disappointing to all but San Fran fans.  Plus, San Francisco is on a short week.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers OVER 47 1/2

Their week 3 battle ended 30-28.  I expect a similar score this week as Deebo Samuel and Davante Adams both make some big plays.

Los Angeles Rams +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The NFL did Los Angeles no favors by making them play on Monday night, thus creating two teams this round that are playing on a short week.  Good thing for the Rams the Cardinals game was not particularly tough.  Tampa received some good news as offensive linemen Tristen Wirfs and Ryan Jensen will both be playing, however, they are not 100% after suffering injuries last week.  And, with Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Leonard Floyd rushing the passer, those two injuries will likely play a major role in this game.

Los Angeles Rams +$130 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bet $100 to win $130)

Cam Akers and Sony Michel offer just enough of a running game to allow Matthew Stafford to make some plays downfield and lead the Rams to the Conference Championship.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 47 1/2

I love that all 3 of the O/Us are 47 1/2 right now.  Making all over bets makes it super easy for me to remember my choices!

Kansas City Chiefs -1 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

This should be a phenomenal game.  Buffalo enters the game with the best defense in the NFL statistically (1st in total defense, 1st in scoring defense, 1st in 3rd down percentage defense, 1st in passing defense and 13th in rushing defense).  But, Buffalo lost cornerback Tre'Davious White to a knee injury in late November, and it is going to be hard to guard the Chiefs' speed on the outside in Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman without White.

Kansas City Chiefs -$125 v. Buffalo Bills (Bet $125 to win $100)

Buffalo has a great chance to win this game.  I only took the Chiefs in the point spread bet because the spread is so low.  But, the money line isn't of any value for me to take Buffalo (+$110), if I think that Kansas City is actually going to win, so rather than canceling out my two bets, it is all-or-nothing on Kansas City.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54

Maybe a 38-31 type of a game.

Big Bet:

Tennessee Titans -$200 v. Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

Much like the point spread, but money has poured in for Tennessee as the money line opened at -$145.  But, once again Derrick Henry is back.  Plus, Ryan Tannehill is way better than he is credited, meaning he and A.J. Brown could make some plays against Cincinnati's 26th ranked pass defense.

Tennessee finished as the number 1 seed in the AFC even without Derrick Henry for a number of games.  This looks like the one favorite that is least likely to lose.

Last Week's Record:  10-7-1

Playoff Record:  10-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Playoff Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  153-136-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $334

Playoff's Winnings (Losses):  $334

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($6) 

Playoffs Picks of the Week/Wild-Card Round

What a horrible start to the week, but managed to scramble to .500 for the week - and for the season - (but lost money due to the vig).  As we know, the playoffs are a whole different season.  Since there are fewer games, I will be making three bets per game: (1) Against the Spread; (2) Money Line; and (3) Over/Under.

The Money Line gives me the opportunity to make up big chunks of my deficit without extra bets, or extra money placed on the game.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans +8 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City escaped the doldrums of the middle of the season by winning their last 4 games in a row, often impressively.  The important statistic for me, though, is that Tennessee has the 4th best defense against the run, holding opponents to 88.8 yards per game.  Their strong run defense could hold the NFL's leading rusher in Kareem Hunt (1327 yards).  Even though Alex Smith did have the best passer rating of all eligible quarterbacks this year, he isn't likely to dominate a game, especially when the Titans have a relatively fresh Derrick Henry smashing into the 25th ranked rush defense of the Chiefs.  I will take the 8 1/2 points.

Kansas City Chiefs -$340 over Tennessee Titans (Bet $340 to win $100)
So, this is the worst money line bet on the board.  However, I have to take it because I don't believe that Tennessee can win this game outright.  If I am just trying to chase the money and get rid of my deficit, I take the Titans at +$255.  However, I don't think Tennessee wins, so I take the Chiefs.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 44 1/2
Both teams, at their average score a total of 46.8 points, and since neither defense overall is exemplary (excepting Tennessee's rush defense, but they are 25th against the pass).  Perhaps a 31-24 win by Kansas City to sweep all three bets.

Atlanta Falcons +6 at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams finished the season as the highest scoring team in the NFL, but were only 10th in total offense.  A lot of that came because of the exemplary kicking of Greg Zuerlein, who is out injured.  Meanwhile Atlanta seems like they have flown under the radar, despite the fact that they are basically in the same position as last year.  The offense wasn't exactly clicking this year, but they are in the playoffs and their 8th ranked defense in points allowed and 9th ranked defense in total yards could cause problems for the Rams.  The Falcons with points is dangerous.

Atlanta Falcons +$230 over Los Angeles Rams (Bet $100 to win $230)
For all of the reasons stated above, I expect Atlanta to outright beat the Rams.

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams OVER 48
Two high scoring teams should make this number rather easily.  I feel that at least one team will be in the 30s, if not both.

Buffalo Bills + 8 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Buffalo finished the season only 1 game behind Jacksonville, and a lot of that reason was LeSean McCoy.  Since it appears that he is going to play, I can only assume that he is fit to do LeSean McCoy type things.  That means he will perform against the 21st ranked rush defense in the NFL.  Ball control, and some scoring could keep this game close.

Jacksonville Jaguars -$335 over Buffalo Bills (Bet $335 to win $100)
It is still possible that LeSean McCoy is not 100%.  If that is the case, there is no real way Buffalo can beat the Jaguars.  The only chance they have is to jump out to a lead a force Blake Bortles to throw.  I don't see that happening.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 39
Would anybod y be surprised if this hit under, of course not.  But, if the winning team hits 24, the over should win.

New Orleans Saints -6 v. Carolina Panthers
These teams know each other too well, so it is really tempting to take the points, especially given 4th ranked rushing offense and 3rd ranked rushing defense.  However, these teams have played twice, and New Orleans won by a composite of 31 points.  The Saints' 10 point victory over Carolina occurred in week 13.   Saints just have too much firepower.

New Orleans Saints -$255 over Carolina Panthers (Bet $255 to win $100)
It goes without saying that if I think the Saints will cover the spread, that I would take them with the money line.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints OVER 47 1/2
Lots of points to be scored.

Big Bet
Atlanta Falcons +6 at Los Angeles Rams

If I feel that they will win outright, then I damn sure need to make them my big bet.

Last Week's Record: 8-8
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  124-124-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($245)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1210)