Worst week of the year. Just horrible. With a capital HOR! Took away all my earnings from the year, and possibly puts me in the negative. I won't know until I get to the bottom of this column and actually calculate it. [Ed. Note - It did erase all my profits for the year.] Oh well. Stretch run here we come.
As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid. I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Las Vegas Raiders -3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Home team, short week. Chargers with virtually no receivers. Then Derek Carr gets hurt, then fumbles, then field goals instead of touchdowns and that's football.
Denver Broncos + 5 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
Denver has been playing teams really close, winning by 5 at Carolina and by 6 at Kansas City in the last two games. This game is a home game, on a short week in altitude. Plus, Denver is a respectable 11th in third down percentage, and getting the defense off the field is important, especially in Denver.
Green Bay Packers - 8 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers
The Packers are 2-1 in the last 3 games against a spread in which they were favored by more than 1 touchdown. The "will he or won't he play" thing with McCaffrey has to be wearing on this team that has played really tough all season despite its 4-9 record. The Packers are just too much right now. Plus, I pick the home team on a short week.
Chicago Bears +3 at Minnesota Vikings
Let's not kid ourselves, I am taking whichever team is getting points in this clunker.
Indianapolis Colts -7 1/2 v. Houston Texans
Two weeks ago, I would have taken Houston in this game behind DeShaun Watson's remarkable season, figuring that the Texans lost by 6. Now, the Texans are reeling, coming off a humbling at the hands of the Chicago Bears. Houston's defense is 31st in total defense, 24th in passing defense, 31st in rushing defense, and 25th in scoring defense. Jonathan Taylor to have a great game.
Detroit Lions +11 at Tennessee Titans
I know that Green Bay is a divisional rival of Detroit, and those games are always tough, but the Lions only lost by a touchdown to Green Bay. I just think 11 points is too much. Detroit 31-21.
Atlanta Falcons +6 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Who knew that Atlanta was going to play an important part in this year's playoff hunt, playing the Buccaneers twice in the last three games. Tampa Bay is 21st in the passing defense and Atlanta is 6th in passing offense. Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley keep Atlanta in this game.
Baltimore Ravens -13 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
This spreak is difficulty, because the streaky Jaguars, despite losting 12 in a row after an opening week over the Indianapolis Colts (who would have guessed that at this point in the season), have had some close losses. Not this week as it will be tough with the Jaguars and their 30th ranked rush defense take on the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL. Short week for Baltimore, so the spread is probably too high, but why not.
Miami Dolphins -2 v. New England Patriots
Miami always plays New England tough in Miami Gardens, even when a great disparity between the quality of the two teams existed. This is a much different season, and Miami learned a lot about themselves in a tough loss to Kansas City. Plus, Tuanigamnualepola Tagavailoa.
Seattle Seahawks -6 at Washington Football Team
West coast team travelling east playing the early game, except Russel Wilson has flipped those stats covering about 80% of the time in that situation. Make it 100% of the time with Dwayne Haskins starting. I still love typng "Football Team".
Dallas Cowboys +3 v. San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco has had a strong season considering they lost all 41 starters to injury, 22 of them in the same game. But, as the season has grinded along, they are just worn down. I expect Dallas to capitalize on that.
Los Angeles Rams -17 1/2 v. New York Jets
This is a ridiculous line in an NFL game, but the Jets have lost by 17 or more 7 times this year. And, this bet makes this game actually exciting. Well, that and I have Jared Goff in the semi-finals of one of my fantasy leagues.
Arizona Cardinals -6 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Did Arizona right the ship last week by beating the Giants after 3 consecutive losses? Or, is Jalen Hurts the remedy that Philadelphia needed to start to scare some teams and make a playoff run? I think Arizona is playing the NFC East at just the right time.
Kansas City Chiefs -3 at New Orleans Saints
The Saints desperately need Drew Brees back, as Taysom Hill is limited. I think the Saints wished they played Jameis Winston a bit more during Brees' absence. As it stands, they are going to lose their playoff bye.
New York Giants +6 v. Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is by far the better team in this game. But, now hear me out, the Giants are 7th in the NFL in rushing defense, and might be able to slow down the Browns vaunted running game, which is third in the NFL. That, and Cleveland has to experience a bit of a letdown after their stunningly close loss to Baltimore on Monday night (and this is a short week for Cleveland).
Pittsburgh Steelers -13 at Cincinnati Bengals
Brandon Allen. Did I say Brandon Allen? I meant Ryan Linley!
Big Bet
Green Bay Packers - 8 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers
The Packers are 2-1 in the last 3 games against a spread in which they were favored by more than 1 touchdown. The "will he or won't he play" thing with McCaffrey has to be wearing on this team that has played really tough all season despite its 4-9 record. The Packers are just too much right now. Plus, I pick the home team on a short week.
I really, really wanted to select Seattle here, but it is always better to take a home team. In Aaron Rodgers we trust. In Aaron Rodgers we hate, but we trust.
Last Week's Record: 4-12
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1Year-to-Date Record: 109-95-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($985)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $760
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