As expected, last week was a cluster - A1 certified cluster. But what to expect when we don't even know who will be playing or for how long half the time. I will say BOOO to the Dallas Cowboys for playing Trey Lance the entire game, keeping Cooper Rush from hitting a $250,000 bonus, and a big kudos to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who threw one last pass to Mike Evans securing 1,000 yards on the season, and a $3 million bonus.
It's playoff time, so hopefully it is time to use everything we learned this year to make some real money!
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 at Houston Texans
The Chargers defense is the number 1 scoring defense in the NFL. Houston's defense is no slouch either, finishing 6th against the pass and 7th in total defense. But, J.K. Dobbins is expected to return, and that can only open up things for a Justin Herbert-led passing offense that has discovered a true weapon in Ladd McConkey.
Los Angeles Chargers -155 at Houston Texans (Bet $155 to win $100)
If I am willing to pick the Chargers against the spread on the road, then -155 is not enough of a change to warrant a hedge bet and taking Houston. If it was -180 or something, then I might have thought about it, but not for this.
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans OVER 41 1/2
The defenses are too good for this to be a shootout, but this line is low Simething like 27-20 or 27-17 seems right to me.
Baltimore Ravens -9 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
This line may seem really high for an intradivisional game in which the teams split during the regular season, but the Steelers that defeated the Ravens 18-16 in week 11 are not the same Steelers that Baltimore decimated 34-17 in Week16, or even the ones that are playing now.
Baltimore Ravens -550 v. Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $550 to win $100)
Baltimore's defense is 1st against the run, which should minimize what little strength on offense the Steelers have (11th in rushing/27th in passing). The Ravens on offense are the best rushing team in the NFL averaging over 187 yards per game.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens OVER 44 1/2
Baltimore will have over 30 themselves behind Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Yes, losing Zay Flowers hurts, but that just means an increase in two-tight end sets with Isaiah Likely joining Mark Andrews, and that is dangerous to defenses, especially in short yardage situations.
Buffalo Bills -8 v. Denver Broncos
I have seen this line as high as 9 1/2, so if I can take 8 I will. This is the end of a Cinderella-like run for Denver this year, and although their future could be bright with some more offensive weapons, this isn't their year.
Buffalo Bills -425 v. Denver Broncos (Bet $425 to win $100)
Buffalo is just better, and they will win this game. So, have to take them in the money line - no doubts.
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills OVER 47 1/2
Not including last week's game where Buffalo rested everybody, they have scored on their own 40, 24, 48, 42, 35, 30,30,30 31, and 34 in their previous 10 games. Sure looks like a good over bet to me as all we will need is Denver to score SOMETHING.
Philadelphia Eagles -5 v. Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love is playing (as is Jalen Hurts), but Green Bay is nowhere near as explosive without Christian Watson, who is out after tearing his ACL. Philadelphia's defense is already 1st against the pass (and total defense), and this will make it easier for them to defend.
Philadelphia Eagles -240 (Bet $240 to win $100)
I hate not having some money line to hedge my bets against the favorites (and yes, the Chargers are the favorites even though they are the lower seeded team and playing on the road), but I feel that Philly is going to slam Green Bay, so I have to take it.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45 1/2
Both teams defenses shoould keep this really low scoring, and I do not expect Green bay to contribute much toward the total.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 v. Washington Commanders
Great season by Washington, led by the odds-on favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels (it should be Brock Bowers, but I digress). Baker Mayfield has this Bucs offense humming along, as they are 4th in scoring, 4th in rushing, 3rd in passing, 3rd in total offense and 1st in 3rd down percentage. Compare that to Washingon's defense which is 3rd against the pass, but 30th against the run, 11th in total defense, and 18th in scoring defense. Daniels will make plays to keep the Commanders in the game, but Tampa should be too much.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -160 v. Washington Commanders (Bet $160 to win $100)
This might ordinarily be one of the games where I would hedge a bet, but the spread just isn't big enough to do that. Bucky Irving will have a big game, keeping the Commanders offense off the field.
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 50 1/2
If you can't take the under on the highest O/U on the board, when can you?
Los Angeles Rams +2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
In a game moved to Glendale because of the massive fires in Los Angeles and Los Angeles County, you would think the Rams would lose their home-field advantage, which they earned by winning their division - even though Minnesota had a better record. But, everybody is going to be cheering for the Rams, securing their "home field". Also, they have a lot to play for on behalf of all of LA (as do the Chargers). I look a lot at the Week 8 game in which the Rams won 30-20 in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp's first games back from injury.
Los Angeles Rams +125 v. Minnesota Vikings (Bet $100 to win $125)
If I think an underdog is going to win outright, then I absolutely am going to take them for the money line.
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams OVER 47 1/2
Minnesota's pass defense is 28th in the NFL, meaning Stafford, Nacua and Kupp could have field days. Likewise, Los Angeles' pass defense is 20th in the NFL, menaing Darnold, Jefferson and Addision could also have big days. That should mean lots of points.
Big Bets:
Philadelphia Eagles -5 v. Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love is playing (as is Jalen Hurts), but Green Bay is nowhere near as explosive without Christian Watson, who is out after tearing his ACL. Philadelphia's defense is already 1st against the pass (and total defense), and this will make it easier for them to defend.
Green Bay is done for this year. The Bears lost last week was a symptom that this is not the same team as earlier in the season.
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams OVER 47 1/2
Minnesota's pass defense is 28th in the NFL, meaning Stafford, Nacua and Kupp could have field days. Likewise, Los Angeles' pass defense is 20th in the NFL, menaing Darnold, Jefferson and Addision could also have big days. That should mean lots of points.
Lots of offensive firepower is hard to shut down for 60 minutes.
Record
Last Week's Record: 7-9
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 134-128-10
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 9-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($455)
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($815)
