Still positive for the playoffs is a good thing. Trying to determine which prop bets might be worth taking in the Super Bowl is in the not-too-distant future. But, what we have today is the most important weekend in terms of quality of football, as today should bring out the best games of the season.
As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid. I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Aaron Rodgers is your MVP, and this Green Bay team is a juggernaut. Green Bay's offense is 1st in scoring, but what gets them there is that they are 2nd in third down percentage. Plus, they are remarkably balanced with the 8th best rushing offense and the 9th best passing offense. Tampa Bay's defense is 1st against the run, 8th in scoring defense and 9th in total defense, BUT, and it is a very big BUT, is 21st against the pass. Aaron Rodgers should be able to carve up Tampa's secondary. Green Bay will stop Tampa Bay more than the reverse as Tampa's offense is also prolific (3rd in scoring), but one-dimensional (2nd in passing, but 28th in rushing).
Green Bay Packers -185 Money Line over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bet $185 to win $100)
Primarily for all the same reasons as above. If I feel that Green Bay is going to cover the spread, I should take them outright, escpecially since +$165 is the bests number I can get for Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers OVER 52
Both teams should score, a lot. Especially if Green Bay takes an early 10-14 point lead and Tampa goes to an almost exclusive passing game.
Buffalo Bills +3 at Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes is the wildcard. Even though he cleared the concussion protocol, he still has the turf toe which would limit his mobility. Plus, Kansas City has not won a game by more than 6 points since November 1, and that was the New York Jets.
Kansas City Chiefs -175 Money Line over Buffalo Bills (Bet $175 to win $100)
I still feel that the Chiefs will win this game. This is their third straigh AFC Championship game, and the Bills still have to show that they are ready to get over the hurdle that is the Chiefs. Kansas City did beat the Billis 26-17 back in Week 6, so the Bills cannot sneak up on Kansas City. Given that both defenses are relatively mediocre, they will likely determine the outcome of this game. Buffalo's defense is 13th against the pass and in total defense, 16th in scoring defense, and 17th in rushing defense. Kansas City's defense is 10th in scoring defense, 14th against the pass, 15th in total defense, but 21st in rushing defense. This should be a great game.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54 1/2.
Despite the previous 26-17 meeting between the two teams, this game should hit the over. As mentioned above, both defenses are capable of making big plays, but are otherwise mediocre. The offenses, however, are anything but. Kansas City is only 16th in rushing offense, but 6th in scoring offense, 3rd in third down conversion percentasge, and 1st in passing yards and total offense. Buffalo is very similar, in that it is only 20th in rushing offense, but 4th in total offense, 3rd in passing offense, 2nd in scoring offense and 1st in third down conversion percentage. If both teams play well, this should be high-scoring.
Big Bet
Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Aaron Rodgers is your MVP, and this Green Bay team is a juggernaut. Green Bay's offense is 1st in scoring, but what gets them there is that they are 2nd in third down percentage. Plus, they are remarkably balanced with the 8th best rushing offense and the 9th best passing offense. Tampa Bay's defense is 1st against the run, 8th in scoring defense and 9th in total defense, BUT, and it is a very big BUT, is 21st against the pass. Aaron Rodgers should be able to carve up Tampa's secondary. Green Bay will stop Tampa Bay more than the reverse as Tampa's offense is also prolific (3rd in scoring), but one-dimensional (2nd in passing, but 28th in rushing).
This is difficult, as the overs seem pretty good bets as well. Despite the allegiance that many officials seem to have given Tom Brady during his career, this is Aaron Rodgers' year.
Last Week's Record: 4-4
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0Playoffs Record: 6-7-1
Year-to-Date Record: 133-133-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 9-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $110
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $110
Playoffs Winnings (Losses): $130
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($995)
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