Another really good week. Could have been a great week, but for the damn Big Bet, and the damn Bears, who never once looked like they were going to lose until the strip sack in the fourth quarter. Otherwise, the money would have been great. Still up thanks to a 10-5 record. Hopefully we can keep this rolling.
As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid. I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
New England Patriots +5 at Los Angeles Rams
Yes, I know, always take the home team on a short week. But, the Patriots played in LA last week, and stayed on the west coast, so no travel. I thought, for once, perhaps Belichick and found a way around the betting rules. I thought wrong. Perhaps it is because they were not at home for an entire week plus.
Houston Texans -2 at Chicago Bears
Just to think, DeShaun Watson was supposed to be playing in this game, except for the home team. I will never forgive the Bears for that (or picking Curtis Enis over Randy Moss, but I digress.)
Jacksonville Jaguars +7 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
Jacksonville gets a jolt at home, to lose by 7. Interestingly, the Jaguars have not allowed Derrick Henry to rush for 100 yards in any of his 4 games in Jacksonville, which is virtually Henry's home. That fact, and perhaps the Titans let up just a bit against the Jaguars means they win, but don't cover.
Carolina Panthers -3 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
This game is an absolute crapshoot. I have heard from lots of "experts" and talked to a lot of friends, and the consensus is all over the board (meaning no consensu). I'll just take the home team, if I have to have a reason to justify it.
Cincinnati Bengals +3 v. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys' defense is atrocious (last in the NFL in rushing defense and scoring; 24th in total defense.) Add that to the fact that Dallas is playing on a short week, and giving points. I will take them.
Miami Dolphins +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City, although winning, has not been dominant. In fact, there last 4 wins have been by a combined 15 points, and that is only because they beat Denver by 6 last week. Miami has been playing tough, solid football in all three phases of the game. On top of that, Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa is starting to get comfortable on the field behind center.
New York Giants +2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
This was a really tough one for me to choose. Arizona has lost 3 in a row after defeating Buffalo. So, does that mean they are sliding, or does that mean they are due? Well, they aren't quite a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing at 1, but they are coming from the Mountain time zone, so I am going to take the home points. Should the Giants when this game, they would have identical records with Arizona.
Minnesota Vikings +6 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
How is this not a 3 point spread? I know Tampa Bay is at home, but geez, 6 1/2 seems high. Strength on strength in this game as Minnesota - which relies heavily on Dalvin Cook - will be challenged by the NFL's number 1 rated rush defense.
Las Vegas Raiders +3 v. Indianapolis Colts
Honestly, I just didn't want to pick a road favorite here. No other reason.
New York Jets +15 at Seattle Seahawks
I know that Seattle is very, very good offensively (3rd in total offens, 4th in scoring offense), and their defense has played much better as of late, but the Jets have recently lost by 3 to the Raiders, 6 to the Chargers, 3 to the Patrtiots, and 8 to the Bills. They only other games in their last 6 have been a 24-0 shutout and a 20-3 loss to the Dolphins, who clearly have their number. They have been playing teams pretty close, so I will take 2+ touchdowns.
Green Bay Packers -8 at Detroit Lions
Seems like I have to pick another road favorite. If this spread was 10, with it being an intra-divisional game, I would have gone the other way, but at 8, I will take Aaron Rodgers.
Atlanta Falcons +1 at Los Angeles Chargers
I don't know what think about this one. This is also strength-on-strength, with Atlanta's passing offense (without Julio Jones) going against the Chargers passing defense (5th in the NFL). Everything about this game tells me to take the Chargers, so I am taking the Falcons.
New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
Maybe Jalen Hurts is just the jolt that the Eagles need, however the announcement that Jason Peters is done for the season - and his career - is going to be too much.
Washington Football Team +3 at San Francisco 49ers
This defense line for Washington is outstanding - and first rounders all (Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen.) Plus, Alex Smith is THE best story in the NFL this year. And, San Francisco is on a short week.
Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
No, I am not overreacting to Pittsburgh's loss to Washington last week as everyone should have seen that coming after Pittsburgh's tumultuous prior week regareding scheduling of their game with the Ravens. But, before that, they had not looked particularly dominant. Despite Buffalo playing on a short week, I am taking the Bills due to the fact that they have been clicking of late.
Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
The Browns played their absolute best last week against Tennessee, and there is no way that they play like that twice in a row. Yes, I am violating all types of gambling rules in this one (visiting intradivisional favorite; taking a team on a short week) but I feel the Browns aren't yet ready for this particular challenge.
Big Bet
Green Bay Packers -8 at Detroit Lions
Seems like I have to pick another road favorite. If this spread was 10, with it being an intra-divisional game, I would have gone the other way, but at 8, I will take Aaron Rodgers.
So, really? I am taking a road favorite in an intra-divisional game, favored by 8 nonetheless, as my big bet. Yes I am. Why? Because Detroit can't do that to me twice in a row, right? And, because I have more faith in the Packers than the Saints (with Hurts being an unknown betting commodity) and Minnesota getting points. Washington was a thought also.
Last Week's Record: 10-5
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1Year-to-Date Record: 105-83-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $285
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1745
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