So, I don't care about jinxing myself at this point, as a losing week is inevitable, but last week was my fifth consecutive winning week. Sure, the picks were at .500, but with the big bet, I finished on the plus side again. As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
This goes against the gambling rules, but Zach Ertz was hurt, as was Miles Sanders, and the offensive line is horrible. I know the Giants are not good, but they are not 5 points worse than Philadelphia.
Tennessee Titans -1 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
I have no idea what to do here, so I am just taking the home team since it is virtually a pick 'em.
Atlanta Falcons -2 v. Detroit Lions
Both teams are horrible on defense, but the Falcons do have the 4th best total offense, and they don't look as bad as Detroit does.
Cleveland Browns -3 at Cincinnati Bengals
Road intra-divisional favorites are always a tough bet, but Cincinnati, despite a promising future with Joe Burrow, still lack a lot of talent, especially on the defense. Cincinnati's 27th ranked rush defense now has to compete with Cleveland's top-ranked rushing offense, which hasn't missed a beat despite losing starter Nick Chubb to injury.
Carolina Panthers +7 at New Orleans Saints
New Orleans just hasn't looked entirely right this season, and now they will be without starting wide receivers Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Alvin Kamara has a ton of talent, but cannot do absolutely everything.
New York Jets +10 v. Buffalo Bills
I hate doing this, but I feel compelled to do so since Buffalo is on a short week. Perhaps the Jets score a late touchdown to lose, but cover 30-21.
Washington Football Team +1 v. Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is completely discombobulated without Dak Prescott. The offense is in such trouble, that even Zeke Elliott fumbled the ball twice last week. Plus, they are on a short week.
Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Houston Texans
Houston played very well is last week's overtime loss to the Titans, but the Packers are on a whole different level. Green Bay will be angry coming off a loss, and the 26th ranked scoring defense is the perfect opportunity for Aaron Rodgers and company to rebound.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders
Even if the Raiders are allowed to start the 4 offensive lineman that were just activated from the Covid Reserve list (pending negative tests today), none of them have practiced all week. Not good when facing the defense ranked 2nd in total defense, 6th in passing defense and 1st in rushing defense.
New England Patriots -2 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
This is literally just a gut reaction. Probably because I think Belichick will bounce back after last week's atrocity that was an 18-12 home loss to Denver.
Denver Broncos + 7 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Only because Kansas City is on a short week, and perhaps because Denver has some confidence after winning at New England last week.
Los Angeles Chargers -7 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Probably a good game to miss.
Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Seattle needs to shore up the defense if they want to make a serious Super Bowl run, but for now, the 4th ranked passing offense and 5th overall offense, should be enough to remaing undefeated, and cover the spread against a Cardinals team that played on Monday night.
Chicago Bears +6 at Los Angeles Rams
The Chicago Bears will likely lose this game as with James Daniels injured, Aaron Donald will likely have 142 sacks. But, the Bears defense will likely keep this game close.
Bye Week - Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings
Big Bet
Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Houston Texans
Houston played very well is last week's overtime loss to the Titans, but the Packers are on a whole different level. Green Bay will be angry coming off a loss, and the 26th ranked scoring defense is the perfect opportunity for Aaron Rodgers and company to rebound.
I hate taking a road favorite as my Big Bet, but the 3 lines that jumped off the board at me all were road favorites (which scares me in general). I will select this one because I believe in Aaron Rodgers more than Baker Mayfield, and because Seattle is in a Sunday night prime-time game (where weird things often happen).
Last Week's Record: 7-7
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0Year-to-Date Record: 54-35-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $80
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $2450
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