WOW - what an amazing week. And a couple of plays from an even BETTER record. Even with losing the big bet (thanks for nothing Minnesota,) I still made enough to put myself in the black for the year. Of course, since I mentioned it that means that I am due for big losses this week. Not hoping for that, but we shall see. Picks going up early because of Christmas and family, so I hope no major injuries or benching hurt my selections.
Also, I am still waiting for the Space Force Academy to start playing college football (IYKYK!) Not sure when that will happen.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks...
Jacksonville Jaguars +2 at New York Jets
This is going against the betting rules, but San Francisco's obvious win as a road team on a short week last week gives me some optimism to take the Jaguars, who have been looking really good lately, as opposed to Zach Wilson.
Chicago Bears +8 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
Not because the Bears are so good, but because the Bears have been playing teams relatively close. They might give up 6 sacks, but boy is it going to be fun watching defenses try to catch up to scrambling Justin Fields and Josh Allen.
New Orleans Saints +3 at Cleveland Browns
Primarily because of the defense (8th total and 7th in passing), and because even while gaining decent yards, Nick Chubb has not looked exactly like Nick Chubb recently.
Atlanta Falcons +7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have scored 3, 16, and 10 points in their last 3 games, and suddenly are threatened by the likes of the the surging Chargers for the playoffs, even at 9-5.
Cincinnati Bengals -3 at New England Patriots
I don't like road favorites, but Cincinnati is just better. Although New England's defense is tough (6th overall/9th passing/9th rushing), Cincinnati's defense is 10th overall, so Joe Burrow taking over in the 4th quarter for the win is a likely scenario.
New York Giants +4 at Minnesota Vikings
Even when the Noon Nightmare is putting up huge numbers, Minnesota has looked like they are a team in decline. And although the Giants offense is pedestria, the Vikings defense is even worse (last in the NFL overall and 28th in scoring defense.)
Detroit Lions -2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
Detroit is going to end up in the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs -10 v. Seattle Seahawks
I hate giving up double digits, but Seattle has fallen off a cliff. They have won 1 of their last 5, but that was against the horrible Rams, and it was close. Kenneth Walker is back, which helps, but as good of a story as Geno has been for most of the season, Seattle is cooked. And, teams are 1-12 in weeks after they have played the San Francisco 49ers. That is straight up and not against the spread, but it is indicative of just how much the 49ers beat up teams.
Houston Texans + 3 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
Houston is coming off two consecutive covers - at Dallas and against the Chiefs. Granted, those spreads were huge, but for large parts of those games Houston was the better team. Given the way they have been playing, the better cover against the Titans. The last ranked rush defense is worrisome against Derrick Henry, but eventhen, Tennessee is only 15th in rushing.
San Francisco 49ers -7 v. Washington Commanders
The Commanders have been a feel good story this year, especially with the surprise that is Taylor Heinicke, howver, some of that shine is coming off and the Commanders are contemplating turning to Carson Wentz. San Francisco might just be hitting their stride, and very well could be the favorites to win the Super Bowl right now.
Philadelphia Eagles +5 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
No doubt this line has a lot to do with the fact that Jalen Hurts is not playing, but never underestimate the power of the Minshew. He is not going to be scared of any defense, even Dallas's (15th total, T7th scoring, 3rd passing), because he faces his own defense in practice every day (2nd total defense, 6th in scoring defense, 1st in passing defense.) He doesn't have the mobility of Jalen Hurts, but he can fling it - so A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith could have a big day. This spread should be 2 1/2.
Las Vegas Raiders +2 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Both teams are hot with the Raiders winning 4 out of their last 5 and the Steelers winning 3 of their last 4. There is hope that the Steelers can slow down Josh Jacobs, as they are 7th against the rush. But, in a game that should be close I am taking the points.
Miami Dolphins -4 v. Green Bay Packers
Both teams looked good last week, Mimai in a loss to Buffalo and Green Bay in its Monday night win over the Rams. Buffalo is much tougher than the Rams, and they are on a short week. So, home team against the team on a short week.
Denver Broncos -2 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are on a short week, and are not very good. Baker Mayfield struggled last week, and Denver's defense is better than Green Bay's (5th overall, 5th passing defense, 3rd scoring defense, 2nd third down percentage). Denver wins.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 at Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is in a free fall, having lost 4 in a row after beating a bad Rams team. Tampa Bay will survive the "challenge" from the other NFC South teams for the automatic playoff spot. Plus, Colt McCoy.
Los Angeles Chargers -4 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
I said it last week, and I'll say it again - the Chargers just look different when they line up Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. That also makes Austin Ekeler that much more dangerous.
Big Bet:
Atlanta Falcons +7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have scored 3, 16, and 10 points in their last 3 games, and suddenly are threatened by the likes of the the surging Chargers for the playoffs, even at 9-5.
Baltimore definitely misses Lamar Jackson and Atlanta plays almost all of its games close (L3, L3, L6, W3, L10, L3, W3) in its last 7. I don't expect any difference in this game.
Last Week's Record: 10-5-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 114-101-7
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 7-6-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $285
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $130
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