Finally, a pretty good week. A winning week in terms of percentage, and with the Big Bet being correct, in the positive!!! Ordinarily that would be great, except I have already dug myself a really big hole for the year. But, I would say that I am figuring this season out, but we all know that is not true.
A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250. All losses incur a vig of 10%. On to the picks.
Los Angeles Chargers -3 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
The Chargers are the second-best team in total offense (3rd in passing). And since the defenses are relatively even - within an average of 12 yards per game, I will take the more prolific offense given that they are the home team on a short week.
Chicago Bears +6 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
It is possible that Lamar Jackson returns for Baltimore, but even if he does, he has only been limited in practice this week. Will he be a bit rusty? Also, he doesn't help the defense that is giving up 32.3 points per game - last in the NFL. Chicago is 10th in scoring, and is the only team in the league that has scored at least 21 points in each of its games.
Cincinnati Bengals -6 1/2 v. New York Jets
The Jets are in disarray evidenced by Woody Johnson's comments this week about Justin Fields. Is it possible that Breece Hall and Quinnen Williams are moved by the trade deadline? I don't know but I guarantee there will be discussions. The Joe Flacco reclamation train steams full-speed ahead, with the best receiving corps he has EVER had.
Buffalo Bills -7 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
Carolina's defense is actually pretty stout (6th overall, 8th rushing defense and 10th passing defense), and Andy Dalton is a tried-and-true professional, but Buffalo is rested and coming off a bye-week and two-game losing streak, so I expect them to come roaring out against the Panthers.
San Francisco 49ers +1 1/2 at Houston Texans
This Texans' defense is absolutely terrifying, as it is 1st in scoring, 4th in total defense, 5th in passing defense, and 10th in rushing defense. But Houston's offense is below average in everything, and is next to last in 3rd-down percentage. Plus, who had Mac Jones leading the number 1 passing offense?! Nobody, that's who. I'll take the points with McCaffrey, especially with Houston playing on a short week.
New York Giants +7 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
With both teams well-into the bottom-half in scoring defense, and both teams in-or-near the middle in scoring, I will take over a touchdown. Philly wins, but New York keeps it close.
Cleveland Browns +6 1/2 at New England Patriots
Ladies and Gentlemen: Your first-place/division-leading New England Patriots. I actually hate this pick, but for all of Cleveland's faults, they have the number 1 total defense in the NFL (3rd passing/4th rushing), so that alone could keep this game close.
Atlanta Falcons -7 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins
How did Mike McDaniel survive last week's 31-7 shellacking at the hands of the Cleveland Browns? They are 26th in total defense and 29th in total offense, going against the second-best defense in the NFL, with the 7th ranked total offense in Atlanta. Which leads to a bigger question, how is Atlanta only 3-3?
New Orleans Saints +3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Let's be clear, I absolutely HATE this pick. I really, really, really want to pick Tampa Bay here, because let's face it, Tampa is better!!! But, Tampa Bay is on a short week, and a home dog in an intra-divisional game is always a smart choice. Doesn't feel right here, but I will go with it and not try to overthink it, especially since defensively the team ranks are pretty similar.
Dallas Cowboys +3 1/2 at Denver Broncos
Denver is giving points after an ultra-emotional unrealistic comeback win (33 points in the 4th quarter!!!) over the New York Giants. There just HAS to be some type of letdown.
Indianapolis Colts -14 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
This is just ridiculous enough to happen!
Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Yes Pittsburgh is in first in the AFC North, but I think that is more about Mike Tomlin than anything else, as the team was a bit exposed against the Bengals last week. They do have some extra rest, but I expect Green Bay to win this by 10.
Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Washington Commanders
This pick seems really disrespectful to the Commanders, but the Chiefs have won all 4 of their games by over 13 points (4-1 in their last 5 after an 0-2 start), and the Commanders will be playing without starting quarterback Jayden Daniels. I will roll the dice with two double-digit favorite picks. Maybe one of them hits.
Byes: Arizona Cardinals, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Atlanta Falcons -7 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins
How did Mike McDaniel survive last week's 31-7 shellacking at the hands of the Cleveland Browns? They are 26th in total defense and 29th in total offense, going against the second-best defense in the NFL, with the 7th ranked total offense in Atlanta. Which leads to a bigger question, how is Atlanta only 3-3?
This is a lot of points to give-up for a Big Bet, but I really do think the Dolphins have given up. Plus, my other thoughts are all on the road (Green Bay, Cleveland, and Dallas).
Last Week Record: 9-6
Last Week Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 49-59
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-5
Last Week Winnings (Losses): $390
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,115)
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