Picks of the Week - Week 7

 

Finally, last week was EXACTLY what I was waiting for, now can I turn this into a streak?  Who knows?  But for now, I had a really good week, and on top of it the football I watched was from Rainey Street in Austin, Texas.  Here is my brief recap from my trip to Austin, Texas.  The NFL has moved from London, but there is a game from Paris, so get your bets/picks in early.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears -3 v. New England Patriots

Home team; short week.  As simple as that in a game pitting two really good teams against each other.

New Orleans Saints +3 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers at Stade de France in Paris, France.

Two teams whose records belie their talent.  New Orleans is better than 2-4 and Pittsburgh is not as good as 4-2.  Honestly for this game I am simply taking points and hoping for the best.  Not a good betting strategy, but it is what I have for this game.

Minnesota Vikings -6 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Minnesota's defense is incredible (1st in scoring and third-down defense; 2nd in total defense; 3rd in passing defense; 5th in rushing defense), but what is going to be the difference in this game is that the Colts appear to be shopping Jonathan Taylor.  That cannot help the team, and in fact, does it affect the playcalling as the Colts try to avoid losing any trade value if he gets banged-up or injured is the question that needs to be asked.

Miami Dolphins +4 1/2 at New York Jets

Another game in which I am taking the points.  Primarily this time though because it is an intra-divisional rivalry, and although not predicting a Dolphins win, it will have to occur sometime, right?

Cincinnati Bengals +1 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore lost last week to Cleveland, and although that is turning out to be nowhere near as bad as it sounds, that is still something.  Cincinnati has been good on third down with the b all - 2nd in the NFL - if they can keep the ball away from Derrick Henry - they have a really good chance to win.

Tennessee Titans +1 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Another game where I am just taking the points.  Yes, I know that Cleveland is 4-2 - but you don't believe that either.  Plus, both teams' defenses are pretty good in keeping the other teams from scoring (Cleveland 5th; Tennessee 13th).

Carolina Panthers -2 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Carolina's offense has been soaring (2nd in total offense, 1st in passing, 4th in scoring), and Tampa's defense has been great (5th in total, 2nd in rushing).  Home-field advantage is going to matter here as Baker Mayfield may be a bit rusty.

Atlanta Falcons +2 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco is the best team in football so far, and it isn't even really that close.  But, they are coming off a Monday night game (short week) and the fact that we have a west coast team playing in the 1:00 window in the East, and this game just seems like it could be an upset.

New York Giants +10 1/2 at Houston Texans

I am not selecting the Giants because I think that J.J. McCarthy is the answer.  I am taking New York because 10 1/2 is a big number against a team that only gives up about 1/2 a point more than it scores.

 

Denver Broncos -4 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Denver has struggled offensively, and Bo Nix has been taking a lot of that blame.  But, I feel like the running game has really been letting the team down (26th in the league).  Maybe that could start to change as they take on the Cardinals and their 27th-ranked rush defense.

Las Vegas Raiders +3 v. Los Angeles Rams

Getting points against a struggling - albeit talented team, where Puka Nacua might also miss the game along with Davante Adams - who is on IR?

Green Bay Packers +3 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Detroit is the better team here, and they average 32.8 points per game this season but, they are last n total defense and passing defense, and there will be opportunities for Green Bay to pick up big plays through the air, which if you saw the Chicago game you know they can take advantage of.

Kansas City Chiefs +2 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Strength versus strength in this game.  Offense (Chiefs - 1st in total, rushing; 5th in scoring; 9th in passing) versus Defense (Seahawks - 1st in total and passing, 5th in scoring and 10th in rushing).  So, let's look at the other side of the ball where KC is 2nd in scoring defense and 4th in total defenses whereas Seattle is middling in all offensive categories (13th scoring, 14th total, 16th passing and 18th rushing).  Plus, the turnovers.  Chiefs getting points?  Yes, please.

Dallas Cowboys -4 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I really, really want to take the home dog in this intra-divisional game, especially since Saquon Barkley might return.  However, there is just too much negativity around Philly's treatment of Jalen Hurts as well as their offensive lines and secondaries right now to take them for anything.

Bye Weeks:  Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, Washington Commanders

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Minnesota Vikings -6 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Minnesota's defense is incredible, but what is going to be the difference in this game is that the Colts appear to be shopping Jonathan Taylor.  That cannot help the team, and in fact, does it affect the playcalling as the Colts try to avoid losing any trade value if he gets banged-up or injured is the question that needs to be asked.

For a Big Bet I first try to select a home team not giving up too many points.  Although I would prefer a line with a "3" or "4" in it, under a touchdown for a Minnesota team that is 1st in scoring defense, 1st in third-down defense, 2nd in total defense, 3rd in passing defense, and 5th in rushing defense is just too good a line to turn down given Indianapolis's problems.

Results: 

Last Week Record: 9-5

Last Week Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 41-47-5

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-4

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $500

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($1,430)