A ho-hum start to the playoffs makes this weekend's games even more important. And, with only 4 games on the agenda, it is time to add the over/under into the calculations. I hate that I do this column to pick all the games, when anything can happen between tonight and tomorrow (see the Saints backup center testing positive for Covid-19), but that is the way the NFL schedules games, so here are all the games.
As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid. I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Green Bay Packers -7 v. Los Angeles Rams
I dub this game, the game of three Aarons: Rodgers, Donald and Jones. The class of the NFC this entire year, the Packers have the number 1 scoring offense in the NFL, and probably just as importantly, the number 2 in 3rd down percentage. And, their offense is balanced too, ranking 8th in rushing and 9th in passing. Plus, the defense is strong, ranking 8th in the NFL in passing offense. The Rams have unquestionably the best defense in the NFL (1st in total defense, scoring defense, passing defense and 3rd in rushing defense and 3rd down percentage). But, their offense is challenged, although with Cam Akers running the ball their rushing offense is tremendously improved. Jared Goff playing makes a big difference, but is he fully healthy? I think not. This is Green Bay's game to win, and they should win handily.
Los Angeles Rams v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 45 1/2
This was a tough call for me, because I think the Packers will score more against the vaunted Rams defense than people expect. But, I don't think the Rams will score much at all. So, I am picking the under. A 30-10 or 31-14 score would not surprise me.
Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
The weather is the wild card in this game, as snow is predicted. That probably won't affect the Ravens offense as much as they rely way more on the run (1st in the NFL) than the pass (last in the NFL), and with a stout defense (2nd in scoring defense, 6th in total defense). This will test the Bills rushing defense (17th in the league) and snow always affects passing games, upon which the Bills rely (3rd in the NFL). But, Josh Allen thrives in leaving the pocket on pass plays (either planned or as a result of pressure) and I feel that both he and Stefon Diggs are both going to cause defenders to lose their footing, which will account for some big plays.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills UNDER 49 1/2
I hate multiple unders, but the snow is what is keeping me at this number.
Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
The Chiefs have the nmber 1 passing offense and total offense in the NFL. Plus, did any of you watch their playoff run last year. Cleveland does come into this game after a scorching performance against Pittsburgh, but does anybody believe that if there were 8-10 more minutes extra last week that Cleveland wins that game? No? I thought so.
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 57
Cleveland's offense is rolling a bit, so I say 38-21 or 35-24. That ballpark puts me in the over territory.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at New Orleans Saints
It is with trepidation that I make this selection, especially given that New Orleans has already beaten Tampa Bay twice this year, but this is not the same Tampa team, particularly offense, since that week 9 loss. Tampa has scored 31, 44, 47, 31 and 26 in their last 5 games, all wins. Adding Antonio Brown allowed the team to give extra healing time to Mike Evans, who is back, and when Antonio Brown is your third receiver, good things are going to happen offensively. That is a lot of people to cover (Evins, Godwin, Brown, Jones, Fournette, Gronkowski, Brate). If anyone can slow down Tampa's 2nd ranked passing offense (and 3rd ranked scoring offense), it could be the Saints (4th in total defense and rushing defense, 5th in passing defense and scoring defense). But, beating a team three times in one year is difficult, so I feel Tampa keeps this close, at least.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints OVER 51 1/2
Just too much offense between Tampa Bay and the Saints (5th in scoring offense). I have to take the over on this
Big Bet
Green Bay Packers -7 v. Los Angeles Rams
The class of the NFC this entire year, the Packers have the number 1 scoring offense in the NFL, and probably just as importantly, the number 2 in 3rd down percentage. And, their offense is balanced too, ranking 8th in rushing and 9th in passing. Plus, the defense is strong, ranking 8th in the NFL in passing offense. The Rams have unquestionably the best defense in the NFL (1st in total defense, scoring defense, passing defense and 3rd in rushing defense and 3rd down percentage). But, their offense is challenged, although with Cam Akers running the ball their rushing offense is tremendously improved. Jared Goff playing makes a big difference, but is he fully healthy? I think not. This is Green Bay's game to win, and they should win handily.
Aaron Rodgers owes my a big bet win, so here we go.
Last Week's Record: 2-3-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0Playoffs Record: 2-3-1
Year-to-Date Record: 129-129-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $20
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $20
Playoffs Winnings (Losses): $20
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1105)
