Picks of the Week - Wilcard Weekend!!!

 

Ended the season with a great 10-6 record, meaning my overall record for the regualar season is GREAT at 30 games over .500!  I am ridiculously satisfied with this season to date.  My only hope is to keep rolling through the playoffs!  Let's see how that goes!!  And, just as a reminder, the Chicago Bears have the #1 overall pick!!!  Open for business!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cleveland Browns -2 at Houston Texans

This Browns defense finished the season 1st overall, 1st in 3rd down percentage, and 1st against the pass - which is Houston's offensive strength.  And, with the resurgence of Joe Flacco, especially to Amari Cooper, I am not sure the 23rd ranked pass defense can stop Cleveland.  Plus, the Browns just annihilated the Texans 36-22 in Houston on week 16 (and I say annihilate because that game was not even that close.  And sure, Davis Mills and Case Keenum quarterbacked Houston instead of C.J. Stroud, but that defense will be the same.

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans OVER 44 1/2

Flacco will lead Cleveland to score over 30 just on their own.  

Kansas City Chiefs -4 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

The winner of this game is simply ... the WEATHER.  It will be sub-zero cold, literally.  Probably not good enough weather to re-energize either of these stagnant offenses, but Miami just has too many injuries, especially along its O-line (Conner Williams) and D-Line (Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips), and other players playing - but hobbled.

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 43 1/2

Likely lots of running which eats up the clock, especially on long scoring drives.  I expect Isaiah Pacheco to have a monster game.

Buffalo Bills -9 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

This might be Mike Tomlin's best coaching job to guide this team into the playoffs. Buffalo is on a roll haveing won 5 in a row, and Pittsburgh's defense, which was 22nd overall, 19th against the rush, and 17th against the pass - with T.J. Watt - is not going to stop Buffalo without him.  Another game where the weather will be a challenge, but I expect Buffalo to win handily.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills OVER 33 1/2

Yes, you read that correctly, 33 1/2.  That is a super-low over/under because of the weather, but I submit, bad weather helps scoring sometimes, with a fumble here, a slipping defender there.  Gotta take the over on this one.

Green Bay Packers +7 at Dallaw Cowboys

This Dallas team has been up-and-down and face a surprising Green Bay Packers team that is much, much better with Aaron Jones in the lineup.  I expect the Cowboys to advance, but it should be a tight one.

 

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys OVER 50 1/2

This game could be a shootout - and that is what I am betting.'

Detroit Lions -3 v. Los Angeles Rams

Would you want to disappoint Dan Campbell with a first-round playoff loss?  Yeah, me either.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions OVER 51 1/2

This is the 5th-highest scoring offense (Detroit) versus the 8th-highest scoring offense (Los Angeles), with both teams in the bottom third in scoring defense.  This means ... POINTS!!!

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Tampa Bay getting points at home to a struggling Eagles team that lost 5 of its last 6, and its lone win a one-possession victory over the Giants.  Add to that fact that A.J. Brown is out, and Devonta Smith is hobbled, and all of a sudden it is harder to score on Tampa's 29th-ranked passing defense.  Should Philly rely on the run, Tampa is stout there - 5th in the NFL.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 43 1/2

Tampa is not going to give up a lot of points to Philadelphia (maybe 10 or 14), and likely won't score enough to push this to the over.

Big Bet I:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Tampa Bay getting points at home to a struggling Eagles team that lost 5 of its last 6, and its lone win a one-possession victory over the Giants.  Add to that fact that A.J. Brown is out, and Devonta Smith is hobbled, and all of a sudden it is harder to score on Tampa's 29th-ranked passing defense.  Should Philly rely on the run, Tampa is stout there - 5th in the NFL.

Baker Mayfield has played big in the playoffs before, and I feel that he will come through again!

Big Bet II:

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans OVER 44 1/2

Flacco will lead Cleveland to score over 30 just on their own.  

I shied away from picking Cleveland as my big bet since they are on the road and giving up points, as opposed to Tampa at home getting points, but I can double that up here by relying on 3 Tds between Njoku and Cooper, plus more from Cleveland.

Record

Last Week's Record:  10-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  144-114-14

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $175

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,095

NFL Wrap-Up

Here are my thoughts from Week 6 of the NFL season, based purely on what I was able to see.  I watched a lot this week, so I have a pretty good sample size.

Game of the Week

Carolina Panthers 37 v. Cincinnati Bengals 37 - The game was tied, so of course, this was the closest game of the week.  But the fact that it was pretty close throughout, and that the Bengals had a chance to win it in overtime, means that this was the game of the week..

Best Team Performance

Baltimore Ravens - Scored 28 points in the first quarter on the way to a 48-17 shellacking of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The game wasn't even that close.

Least Impressive Team Performance

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - but because that was too easy, I will say the Miami Dolphins coaching staff.  Giving Aaron Rodgers the ball with just over 2:00 left and the Dolphins up 4 is not soo bad (after all you do have to score when you can), but calling two defensive time outs during that possession?  Ridiculous.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Joe Flacco, QB - Baltimore Ravens.  Flacco finished 21-29 for 396 yards and 5 Touchdowns, with the 5th coming just after the start of the second quarter.  He was in total control of the ball game from start to finish - which incidentally was about 10 minutes in.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)

Khaseem Greene, Darryl Sharpton and Christian Jones, LBs, Chicago Bears - The three backups all forced to start due to injuries, came up huge in the Bears win over Atlanta, holding the Falcons to just 13 points.  Greene had 14 tackles, with Sharpton finishing with 9 while handling the defensive play calls.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Matt Bryant, K - Atlanta Falcons.  Although the Falcons lost and Bryant did not have any dramatic kicks at the end of the game, he did split the upright twice (in two chances), the first from 52 yards and the second from 54 yard.

Most Impressive Team Performance (Premier League)

Off weekend for national team play.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Premier League)

Off weekend for national team play.

Goat of the Week

Mike Nugent, K - Cincinnati Bengals - He missed a 36 yard field goal with no time left on the clock in overtime that would have won the game for the Bengals.  Because it was overtime, at least they didn't lose.

Goat of the Week (Premier League)

Off week for national team play.

Hit of the Week

Baltimore Ravens on Tampa Bay Buccaneers - this was an all out mob-war type of hit.

Breakthrough Performance

Jarvis Landry, WR - Miami Dolphins - He had 6 catches for 75 yards and a touchdown against the Green Bay Packers.  A pedestrian game for a star wide receiver, but a first good game for the rookie from LSU.

Finally

Matt Forte - He has always been an important cog in the Chicago Bears offense, but had yet to have that star breakthrough game this season, which has been primarily showcasing the passing talents of Jay Cutler and the receiving ability of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey.  Against the Falcons, Matt Forte was the star, rushing for 80 yards and 2 TDs, and also contributing 10 catches for 77 yards.

Impact Injury

Bobby Wagner, LB - Seattle Seahawks.  For all of the attention garnered by the Legion of Boom secondary, it is really Wagner that is the heart and soul of Seattle's defense.

Team Rising

Indianapolis Colts - After losing their first two games - albeit at Denver and to Philadelphia, the Colts have won 4 straight with a pretty easy schedule remaining.

Team Falling

Atlanta Falcons - The home loss to the Bears brings Atlanta to 2-4 on the season, and in danger of losing a grip on the playoffs, with Baltimore and Detroit coming up next..

Best Teams

1. San Diego Chargers
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Denver Broncos
5. Indianapolis Colts

Worst Teams
(All winless teams will be bottomed ranked teams until none are left - then the rankings will be the result of my true thoughts and not just records)

32. Jacksonville Jaguars
31. Oakland Raiders
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
29. New York Jets
28. Minnesota Vikings

Middle Teams

15.  Detroit Lions
16.  Houston Texans
17.  New Orleans Saints
18.  Cleveland Browns

Preview - Game(s) of the Week

4. Cincinnati Bengals v. Indianapolis Colts - The Bengals are winless in two consecutive games while the Colts have won 4 straight.  Winner enters the home-field advantage derby.

3. New York Giants v. Dallas Cowboys - This division games means double, as a Giants loss puts them a full 3 games behind the Cowboys.

2. Carolina Panthers v. Green Bay Packers - Could have been even more exciting if the Panthers had won last week, but still a very important intra-conference game.

1. San Francisco 49ers v. Denver Broncos - Two of the 3 or 4 best teams in the league coming into the season, and still a whole ton of talent on the field!

Trivia

Last week Scott Chandler had the first 100 yard receiving game by a Tight End for the Buffalo Bills since 1992.  Who was the last Bills TE to have a 100 yard receiving game?

Sports Bar Review of the Week

Today's review is of Grease Burger Bar, located at 213 Clematis Street, West Palm Beach, FL

Admittedly, this is one of my favorites, so I will try my best to make this review simply about my last trip to the bar.

Ambiance, the bar itself - literally the bar - is really amazing as it runs the length of the restaurant from front to back, with lots of delicious bottled beer in many refrigerators behind the bar.  It has a great looking feel.

The sports feel is OK.  There are lots of televisions, but the majority of them are behind the bar.  Although angled, most of the televisions face in one direction.  Although all of the tables are in great range of the televisions, it is difficult to have a good vantage point of more than one or two games.  There were a ton of fans, cheering for 6 or 7 different teams, but it never had the feel of a sports bar, as most of the patrons attentions were on their groups.  It was loud and noisy (in vibrant way) punctuated by the occasional cheers, but it never felt like football was the focus of the establishment or the patrons.

Food is burger-focused, and they are delicious.  My favorite has a fried egg and bacon.  Our table was completely satisfied with the burgers and the fries, which are also scrumptious.  Although we stayed away from the OMG Cheese Fries this trip, I must highly recommended them.  The presentation of the burgers is nice too, with the word "Grease" grilled into the top bun.

The beer selection is awesome.  What seems like a hundred bottled beers on the menu, of all flavors and styles.  Our particular beers for the games consisted of Avery White Rascal, DogFish Head 90 Min. IPA and Stella Artois.  Half of the fun of Grease is reading the chalkboard with the listing of all of the bottles available that day!  They even have football specials for buckets.  Grease does have a full bar, and the bartenders will make just about any order of shots, as I saw many varietals moving from the bar to the customers.

Service was good, with timely check-ins by the waiter for re-fills and the food came out of the kitchen timely, even though the bar and its tables were full, and with a standing room only crowd.

The bathrooms are small and crowded, and as such they can look a little trashy from time-to-time.

Service - AFC West
Drinks - NFC North
Food - AFC North
Cleanliness - NFC South
Sports Accommodations - AFC North
Overall - 4th Place AFC North (Pittsburgh Steelers)

Rating System Best to Worst:  NFC West, NFC North, AFC North, AFC West, NFC South, AFC South, NFC East, AFC East

Trivia Answer

Peyton Manning passed the 500 touchdown barrier this week, becoming the second quarterback in history to do so (after Brett Favre).  Against what team has Manning thrown the most touchdowns, and who has caught the most of Manning's touchdown passes?  - Manning has thrown 48 touchdown passes against the Houston Texans, and Marvin Harrison has caught the most touchdowns from Manning with 112.  Reggie Wayne is second at 67.