It is Super Bowl Sunday, and that means only one game to pick. But, it also means absolutely ridiculous prop bets!!! Trying to finish this season strong by betting on far-and-away the best team in the NFL this year. Too bad Tampa deprived us of the matchup we all wanted to see - Kansas City versus Green Bay. But, that is why they actually play the playoff games.
As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid. I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks. Although, given that it is the Super Bowl, I might pick one regular bet and one prop bet as my "Big Bet". Who knows, we could go crazy today!
Kansas City Chiefs -3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Chiefs are the best team this year. easily. They did play Tampa in the regular season and won 27-24, but that game was not even that close. Kansas City destroyed them. Does KC's loss of Eric Fisher concern me? Yes. Does Patrick Mahomes' turf toe concern me? Not as much as we saw Mahomes perform with the turf toe to the tune of 29-38 for 325 yards and 3 TDs. Does LAurent Duvernay-Tardif opting-out of this season concern me? Absolutely not because that mad opted out to put his medical degree and knowledge to help out at health care facilities in his hometown. That is a man. What should be concerning to Tampa is that they have the 21st ranked passsing defense. Kansas City also has a 21st ranked defense, but it is against the run and Tampa doesn't run particularly well (T-28th in the NFL).
Kansas City -150 Money Line over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bet $150 to win $100)
Ordinarily I would stay away from this line, as Tampa Bay is offering a better play, but being required to pick using the money line, I might as well select the team I believe will win the game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 56
I think that we could be at this over in 3 quarters.
National Anthem Length UNDER 130 seconds
Yes, most lines had this at 120 minutes exactly, except a reporter timed a practice singing and reporter 2:16. Since then, most sites have upped the Over/Under - or taken it off the board. I think it will still be under the adjusted time frame.
Second Quarter Total Points OVER Serie A Goals Today
Five games today, so I feel like 2 touchdowns could cover it.
LaMelo Ball Total Points OVER Total Kickoffs
Ball averages 13.6 points per game, so that would mean, excluding opening and third quarter kickoffs, I would need six scores each to hit the over from Ball's average. But, he has scored over 22 in 3 of his last 4 games, and the Hornets play at the awful Wizards, so I will take Ball for about 20 points and win this bet.
Travis Kelce Receptions OVER Cincinnati Bearcats Made 3-Pointers
Cincinnati averages 6 made 3-pointers a game, which means even if they go over their average by 50% I have a legitimate shot at this number. But, if they have a horrible shooting game and go under .... I'll take that bet.
Antonio Brown Total Yards OVER NHL Total Goals
This was a crapshoot, but I feel if Brown, as the third receiver is going to be open. Plus, only 25 ot 30 yards gets me this one thanks to some Covid cancellations.
Andy Reid throws in the Punt, Pass, and Kick Contest win he was 13 OVER 1/2
This will be shown a couple of times, I am sure of it.
Big Bet
Kansas City Chiefs -3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Chiefs are the best team this year. easily. They did play Tampa in the regular season and won 27-24, but that game was not even that close. Kansas City destroyed them. Does KC's loss of Eric Fisher concern me? Yes. Does Patrick Mahomes' turf toe concern me? Not as much as we saw Mahomes perform with the turf toe to the tune of 29-38 for 325 yards and 3 TDs. Does LAurent Duvernay-Tardif opting-out of this season concern me? Absolutely not because that mad opted out to put his medical degree and knowledge to help out at health care facilities in his hometown. That is a man. What should be concerning to Tampa is that they have the 21st ranked passsing defense. Kansas City also has a 21st ranked defense, but it is against the run and Tampa doesn't run particularly well (T-28th in the NFL).
Including playoffs, Andy Reid is 24-6 when playing after an extra week of rest (bye week or off week in playoffs). 24-6. That is an 80% winning percentage. Dude Can Coach.
Big Prop Bet
Antonio Brown Total Yards OVER NHL Total Goals
This was a crapshoot, but I feel if Brown, as the third receiver is going to be open. Plus, only 25 ot 30 yards gets me this one thanks to some Covid cancellations.
His development over the second half of the season has been the difference between being in the Super Bowl and being beaten by the Chicago Bears.
Last Week's Record: 3-3
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1Playoffs Record: 9-10-1
Year-to-Date Record: 136-136-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 9-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($270)
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($270)
Playoffs Winnings (Losses): ($140)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1265)
No comments:
Post a Comment