Picks of the Week - Divisional Playoffs

A ho-hum start to the playoffs makes this weekend's games even more important.  And, with only 4 games on the agenda, it is time to add the over/under into the calculations.  I hate that I do this column to pick all the games, when anything can happen between tonight and tomorrow (see the Saints backup center testing positive for Covid-19), but that is the way the NFL schedules games, so here are all the games.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Los Angeles Rams

I dub this game, the game of three Aarons:  Rodgers, Donald and Jones.  The class of the NFC this entire year, the Packers have the number 1 scoring offense in the NFL, and probably just as importantly, the number 2 in 3rd down percentage.  And, their offense is balanced too, ranking 8th in rushing and 9th in passing.  Plus, the defense is strong, ranking 8th in the NFL in passing offense.  The Rams have unquestionably the best defense in the NFL (1st in total defense, scoring defense, passing defense and 3rd in rushing defense and 3rd down percentage).   But, their offense is challenged, although with Cam Akers running the ball their rushing offense is tremendously improved.  Jared Goff playing makes a big difference, but is he fully healthy?  I think not.  This is Green Bay's game to win, and they should win handily.

Los Angeles Rams v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 45 1/2

This was a tough call for me, because I think the Packers will score more against the vaunted Rams defense than people expect.  But, I don't think the Rams will score much at all.  So, I am picking the under.  A 30-10 or 31-14 score would not surprise me.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

The weather is the wild card in this game, as snow is predicted.  That probably won't affect the Ravens offense as much as they rely way more on the run (1st in the NFL) than the pass (last in the NFL), and with a stout defense (2nd in scoring defense, 6th in total defense).  This will test the Bills rushing defense (17th in the league) and snow always affects passing games, upon which the Bills rely (3rd in the NFL).  But, Josh Allen thrives in leaving the pocket on pass plays (either planned or as a result of pressure) and I feel that both he and Stefon Diggs are both going to cause defenders to lose their footing, which will account for some big plays.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills UNDER 49 1/2

I hate multiple unders, but the snow is what is keeping me at this number.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

The Chiefs have the nmber 1 passing offense and total offense in the NFL.  Plus, did any of you watch their playoff run last year.  Cleveland does come into this game after a scorching performance against Pittsburgh, but does anybody believe that if there were 8-10 more minutes extra last week that Cleveland wins that game?  No?  I thought so.

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 57

Cleveland's offense is rolling a bit, so I say 38-21 or 35-24.  That ballpark puts me in the over territory.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at New Orleans Saints

It is with trepidation that I make this selection, especially given that New Orleans has already beaten Tampa Bay twice this year, but this is not the same Tampa team, particularly offense, since that week 9 loss.  Tampa has scored 31, 44, 47, 31 and 26 in their last 5 games, all wins.  Adding Antonio Brown allowed the team to give extra healing time to Mike Evans, who is back, and when Antonio Brown is your third receiver, good things are going to happen offensively.  That is a lot of people to cover (Evins, Godwin, Brown, Jones, Fournette, Gronkowski, Brate).  If anyone can slow down Tampa's 2nd ranked passing offense (and 3rd ranked scoring offense), it could be the Saints (4th in total defense and rushing defense, 5th in passing defense and scoring defense).  But, beating a team three times in one year is difficult, so I feel Tampa keeps this close, at least.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints OVER 51 1/2

Just too much offense between Tampa Bay and the Saints (5th in scoring offense).  I have to take the over on this

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Los Angeles Rams

The class of the NFC this entire year, the Packers have the number 1 scoring offense in the NFL, and probably just as importantly, the number 2 in 3rd down percentage.  And, their offense is balanced too, ranking 8th in rushing and 9th in passing.  Plus, the defense is strong, ranking 8th in the NFL in passing offense.  The Rams have unquestionably the best defense in the NFL (1st in total defense, scoring defense, passing defense and 3rd in rushing defense and 3rd down percentage).   But, their offense is challenged, although with Cam Akers running the ball their rushing offense is tremendously improved.  Jared Goff playing makes a big difference, but is he fully healthy?  I think not.  This is Green Bay's game to win, and they should win handily.

Aaron Rodgers owes my a big bet win, so here we go.

Last Week's Record:  2-3-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Playoffs Record:  2-3-1

Year-to-Date Record:  129-129-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $20

Playoffs Winnings (Losses):  $20

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1105) 

Picks of the Week

   

Two winning weeks in a row - I will take that for sure.  Especially as we enter the first really precarious weekend of the NFL season.  We have one Covid cancellation (Tennessee-Pittsburgh); one Covid postponement until Monday or Tuesday (New England-Kansas City); one big star testing positive (Cam Newton) and one false positive (with the New Orleans Saints).  I will be predicting the KC-NE game, but that bet will not count if not played by Tuesday (this week).  Tennessee-Pittsburgh has already been re-scheduled for later in the season, but I will mention it - but not pick it this week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Denver Broncos +1 at New York Jets

I don't care that it is a short week, I will take points from the Jets.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans PPD (Covid-19)

Technically this is being changed into a "Bye Week", but the Titans have had 18 players and staff test positive for Covid-19.  We don't yet know which players, but that will affect them next week against Buffalo.

New Orleans Saints -3 at Detroit Lions

We had a scare with the fullback, who was sitting on the team plane next to Alvin Kamara, tested positive for Covid-19, but the follow-up test confirmed the first positive was a false positive - therefore a negative.  Anyway, New Orleans is 1-2, and more importantly just hasn't looked like it should, especially offensively without Michael Thomas.  That should change today with the Setroie Lions being 28th in total defense and 30th in rushing defense (and 26th in scoring defense).

Carolina Panthers +3 v. Arizona Cardinals

I really, really want to take the Cardinals.  But, the gambling rules say take the home team when the visiting team is from the west coast and travels east for the early game.  Especially when the visiting west coast team is a favorite.  I will ultimately - and begrudgingly - take Carolina and hope Arizona wins 23-21.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

I hate, hate this game.  Not from a gambling stanpoint but from a football fan standpoint.  This game is between two not very good teams - but both very fun to watch.  I take it back, I love this game.  Minshew and Burrow are going to be throwing the ball all over the place.  For that, I will just take the points, and because Jacksonville is inconsistent and they were horrible last week.

Dallas Cowboys -4 v. Cleveland Browns

The Cowboys are remarkably 21st in rushing offense, mostly because they are 1st in passing offense (and total offense).  That is mostly because they were beding to the Rams and Seattle in the games they have lost and were way behind in Atlanta and came back to win.  They should not have the same problem against Cleveland and can comfortably rush the ball from ahead.

Minnesota Vikings +3 1/2 at Houston Texans

Houston's paltry offense (28th overall; 31st rushing offense; 29th scoring offense) versus Minnesota's anemic defense (30th in total defense and passing defense; 26th in rushing defense; 31st in scoring defense).  But, Minnesota does have the 8th best rushing offense and Houston has the league's worst rushing defense allowing 188.3 per game.

Miami Dolphins +5 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

You should all be able to recite the "west coast team traveling east and playing the early game" mantra.  However, the one team immune to that is Seattle, who have managed to win, and cover, regularly on the east coast.  Then why don't you just pick them Pepe?  Because this line seems weird.  It seems like a Ryan Fitzpatrick touchdown pass late, late in the game to lose 31-27.

Los Angeles Chargers +7 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This number is just too high.  Yes I know LA is a west coast team and this is a 1:00 game.  The number is too much.  Should have been about 4 or 4 1/2.  Chargers have the 6th total offense (6th in rushing and 8th in passing) as well as the 8th total defense (11th in passing and 11th in defense; 4th in scoring defense).  Tampa just shouldn't be able to score enough more than Los Angeles to cover this number.

Washington Football Team +14 v. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are much better than the Football Team, and they are probably angry and embarrassed at their performance last week against Kansas City, but they are on a short week and on the road (albeit not very far), so to give up two touchdowns is A LOT.  Baltimore wins, but maybe 34-24.

Chicago Bears +3 v. Indianapolis Colts

Let's be honest, this is a crapshoot because we don't know how the Bears' offense is going to react to Nick Foles being under center for the entire game.  Also, Tarik Cohen out for the year on a cheap shot (he was hit in the leg while fair catching a punt).  I think (hope) they rally around Foles.  They will have to do just that going against the #1 defense in the NFL as of right now (1st in total defense, 1st in scoring defense, 1st in passing defense, 3rd in 3rd down conversion defense and 4th in rushing defense).  Bears keep it close, even if they fall for their first loss of the season.  Please note, this game was moved from the 1:00 time slot to 4:25 due to the postponement of the New England Kansas City game.

Los Angeles Rams -13 v. New York Giants

I do not know why I am so willing to give 13 here, but not 14 in the Baltimore game.  It must be because the Rams are home with a prolific offense (3rd in total offense and rushing offense, 6th in passing offense, 7th in scoring offense).  In contrast, the GIants have the absolute worst offense in the NFL (25th in passing defense, dead last in total defense, rushing defense and scoring defense).

Buffalo Bills -3 at Las Vegas Raiders

This is a classic strength versus weakness battle.  Buffalo has the offense (4th in total offense, 3rd in scoring offense, 2nd in passing offense) whereas Las Vegas has problems stopping anybody (22nd in passing defense, 25th in scoring defense, 27th in total defense, 28th in rushing defense).  Bills get to 4-0 and cover doing it.

Philadelphis Eagles +7 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco still wins this game, as they are very comfortable with Nick Mullens behind center.  But, their injuries have to start catching up to them at some point, right?  Even in Philadelphia doesn't win, they have to start playing better at some point also.  The Eagles have offensive line problems, but the entire starting defensive line for the 49ers is injured.  San Francisco may win, but don't cover.

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Atlanta Falcons

I have said it before and I will say it again.  This is about the Aaron Rodgers internalized revenge against the Packers for having the audacity to use a high round draft pick to take a quarterback to possibly replace me instead of giving me any more weapons tour.  A little long-winded, sure, but apropos.

Kansas City Cheifs No Line v. New England Patriots

Right now they are going to play Tuesday, but nobody knows for certain, and no line has been set.  I will make a pick when it is, but it is likely going to be Kansas City anyway, because Brian Hoyer is starting at QB for New England.

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Atlanta Falcons

I have said it before and I will say it again.  This is about the Aaron Rodgers internalized revenge against the Packers for having the audacity to use a high round draft pick to take a quarterback to possibly replace me instead of giving me any more weapons tour.  A little long-winded, sure, but apropos.

The spread is a little high for me for a big bet, but I get Aaron Rodgers on an MVP-type roll (and Aaron Jones also), and at home in a big prime time game.  Plus, it worked last week for me!

The other game I gave serious consideration to choosing for this slot was Dallas -4 v. Cleveland, but I trust Aaron Rodgers more.

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  27-20-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $280
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $950