For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
I hate picking the road team on a short week, but if you thought I liked to make fun of Jeff Driskell, imagine how much I like to bet against a guy who could not even beat out Jeff Driskell for second string.
Buffalo Bills +7 at Dallas Cowboys
I still think that the Cowboys win this game - which would be their first win against a team with a winning record, but 7 seems really high. Josh Allen's legs keeps the ball out of the hands of Rain Prescott and Ezekial Elliott, and their defense keeps it close anyway.
Atlanta Falcons +7 v. New Orleans Saints
Atlanta is not going to sneak up on New Orleans this time, but will still keep it close. Julio Jones is listed as questionable, but Devonta Freeman will be back, and ball-control is crucial when playing against Drew Brees.
Washington Racists +10 at Carolina Panthers
Dwayne Haskins coming of his first NFL win, which was basically a product of the teams defense, might be getting some confidence. Plus, the Panthers with their 19th ranked offense isn't exactly lighting things up enough to outscore most teams by 10.
New York Jets -3 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
The New York Jets, especially on offense, are playing much, much better as of late winning 3 in a row after losing to the Miami Dolphins. The number 1 ranked rush defense is going to put the onus on a recently promoted Andy Dalton.
Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have been solid all year, especially rushing the ball (3rd in the NFL) and against the rush (8th in the NFL), but this Ryan Tannehill phenomenon is really hard for me to explain. So, I am just going to pick Tennessee when they should lose, and pick against them when they should win.
Baltimore Ravens -6 v. San Francisco 49ers
THE GAME OF THE WEEK TO WATCH; not the game of the week to bet. We just don't know what is going to happen here. When in doubt, follow the rules. Bet against the west coast team travelling east and playing the early game. Especially when that west coast team is missing players.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are reeling and are in serious trouble of losing not only games, but their coach, fan base, maybe even their team (London anyone?) Tampa Bay is 4th in passing offense and 3rd in points, whereas Jacksonville - ordinarily good at 10th in passing defense - is missing 6 starters, including Calais Campbell and possibly Telvin Smith (Police activity at his house yesterday amid rumors or running a pot farm in Georgia).
Miami Dolphins +9 v. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles, which are 23rd in total offense, should not be favored by 9 points against any time when on the road. Dolphins had been playing tough until last week's debacle against Cleveland, but the Browns might just be hitting their stride.
Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 at New York Giants
Green Bay has been struggling lately, but the Giants are the remedy for almost all that ails teams, as showcased last week in the Bears second-half performance against the Giants.
Cleveland Browns -1 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland is cruising, and Pittsburgh is playing Delvin Hodges.
Arizona Cardinals +3 v. Los Angeles Rams
There is just something about this Arizona team, especially in keeping games close. The Rams are 18th in total offense, and 18th in total defense, not particularly great statistics. The problem with this pick is that Arizona's defense is horrid, but the Rams offense has been struggling. Give me the points.
Oakland Raiders +10 at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 30th in rush defense, and Josh Jacobs for Oakland is 5th in rushing yards. As always, it is tough to be a double digit favorite, especially in an intra-divisional game, and if Jacobs can help keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes's hands, this game could be a 7-9 point victory for Kansas City.
Denver Broncos +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Honestly, I wanted to pick the Chargers here, but I have been picking way too m any road teams. So, Broncos. (How is that for scientific, mathematical and statistical analysis?)
Houston Texans +3 v. New England Patriots
Both teams have been struggling to play up to their usual expected selves lately, and this game could come down to field goals. In that case, I want the points at home and I hope that the Texans win 9-6. Plus, New England is having flu problems this week (8 players right now), so I will take Houston.
Minnesota Vikings +3 Seattle Seahawks
My rooting interests lies with the Seahawks, as I desperately need Minnesota and Green Bay to lose my games in preparation for my Bears being 6-6 after defeating Detroit this week (hopefully). But, the Seahawks defense is 23rd in total defense and 21st in scoring defense, and they are giving points to Minnesota, so I will take them.
Big Bet I
Chicago Bears -5 1/2 at Detroit Lions
I hate picking the road team on a short week, but if you thought I liked to make fun of Jeff Driskell, imagine how much I like to bet against a guy who could not even beat out Jeff Driskell for second string.
What is a David Blough? Although the fear of the unknown actually scares me when wagering, I am hoping Matt Nagy has learned that Mitchell Trubisky is better in a no huddle, and keeps that going for the rest of the season.
Big Bet II
Because I want to have something big at stake on Thanksgiving, and on Sunday, I am selecting two Big Bets this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are reeling and are in serious trouble of losing not only games, but their coach, fan base, maybe even their team (London anyone?) Tampa Bay is 4th in passing offense and 3rd in points, whereas Jacksonville - ordinarily good at 10th in passing defense - is missing 6 starters, including Calais Campbell and possibly Telvin Smith (Police activity at his house yesterday amid rumors or running a pot farm in Georgia).
Since Tampa is going to be throwing the ball all over the field (Jameis Winston is second in passing yards - 32 behind Rain Prescot; Chris Godwin is second in receiving yards; and Mike Evans is third in receiving yards), I'll bet Jacksonville wishes they still had Jalen Ramsey.
Last Week's Record: 5-9
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 83-94
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 7-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($655)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($1,825)
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