Picks of the Week

Inching over .500 for the season in record (though behind in $$).  I would say that perhaps I am figuring out this season, but we all know that is not true.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers -7 v. Tennessee Titans
Finally, a home favorite on a Thursday night with a number that I feel fine with giving.  I would ordinarily have made this my "Big Bet", except that weird things happen on a Thursday night.  Glad they didn't this time.

Chicago Bears +3 v. Detroit Lions
The Bears have played favorites well at home this year (see Atlanta, Pittsburgh), so I will take the points. It doesn't hurt that Detroit isn't significantly great at anything on offense (15th total yards, 29th rushing).  They are the 6th highest scoring team, so not sure that makes sense.

Jacksonville Jaguars -7 at Cleveland Browns
Other than the fact this is Cleveland, we could have had an interesting battle with the top rated rush offense (Jacksonville) versus the 4th rated rush defense (Cleveland).  Too bad Jacksonville's defense will overwhelm Cleveland's offense.

Baltimore Ravens -2 at Green Bay Packers
I don't like giving up the points here, but I feel Danny Woodhead will make one or two plays to secure the victory.  Baltimore's biggest liability is their rush defense, but Green Bay has a next-to-nothing rush offense which is unlikely to take advantage of that liability.

Arizona Cardinals +2 at Houston Texans
What an awful game.  Gimme the points and pray for rain.

Los Angeles Rams +1 at Minnesota Vikings
No joke, this is a battle of two of the titans of the NFC, both leading their respective divisions at 7-2.  It's the Rams 3rd ranked offense in total yards - and 1st in points - versus the Vikings 5th rated defense in total yards - but 15th in points.  I'll take the bonus point and the Rams.

New Orleans Saints -9 1/2 v. Washington Racists
I really, really didn't want to pick the Saints here because that line just seems a bit too large.  If it was 6 1/2 or 7 - I would take the Saints and their second ranked offense easily.  However, seeing that the Racists are 26th in the league in points allowed at 25.8 per game, I expect New Orleans to get at least 35.

Kansas City Chiefs -10 at New York Giants
Not a good feeling with this pick, but it seems like the Giants are getting worse and worse each week.  This might be exactly what Kansas City needs to get back on track.  I expect Travis Kelce to have  a HUGE game.

Miami Dolphins +2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Miami is floundering, but the Buccaneers are in even worse shape.  If Cutler is going to get going with Landry and Parker, this is the game to do it, as Tampa has the 29th rated pass defense in the league.

Buffalo Bills +7 at Los Angeles Chargers
From what I hear, the team (meaning players, not administration) really like Nathan Peterman.  We will see if that faith is rewarded in Peterman's first NFL start.  Perhaps he, and Kelvin Benjamin, can jump start the league's 30th ranked passing offense.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Denver Broncos
Andy Dalton has not lit up the statistics like he has in the past, but he does have an 88.2 QBR, whereas the Broncos defense is 29th in points allowed at 26.6 (while being 4th in total yards).  This can only be explained by losing the field possession battle thanks to the likes of Brock Osweiler, who will be starting today!.

Oakland Raiders +7 v. New England Patriots
Ever stat says to pick the Patriots in this one, except for New England's 32nd (read: last) ranked defense and 32nd ranked pass defense.  Is it time for Carr and Amari Cooper to have another stellar game?  I think so.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 at Dallas Cowboys
I know what you are saying.  "Pepster, why pick a road intra-divisional favorite?"  Did you see the Cowboys offensive line last week?  Brutal!  Plus, the Eagles are third defensively in third down conversion percentage, while being 1st against the rush.  Add to that, Philadelphia has scored at least 20 points in 13 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL.

Seattle Seahawks -1 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
Seattle has won five of their last 6, and are 3-1 at home this season.  The Seahawks will be without Kam Chancellor the rest of the season, but the Falcons will be without Devonta Freeman this week as well.  Chancellor's injury hurts more long term, but the Freeman in jury could be devastating for the Falcons against the 10th ranked rushing defense.

Byes:  Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet

Philadelphia Eagles -6 at Dallas Cowboys
I know what you are saying.  "Pepster, why pick a road intra-divisional favorite?"  Did you see the Cowboys offensive line last week?  Brutal!  Plus, the Eagles are third defensively in third down conversion percentage, while being 1st against the rush.  Add to that, Philadelphia has scored at least 20 points in 13 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL.
This was a difficult week for me to decide my "Big Bet" because nothing really jumped out at me except for the Thursday night game.  Not sure why I am taking this game except for the performance last week by the Cowboys.  Other games under consideration were the Jacksonville Jaguars, and Buffalo Bills.

Last Week's Record: 7-6
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  71-69-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-5
Last Two Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($125)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($585)