Picks of the Week

After an awful week, I am going to try to spend a bit of time analyzing my selections this week.  See if I cannot turn this around.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Denver Broncos -1 at Arizona Cardinals
I hate selecting the road teams on Thursday night (or any short week, really), but Arizona is a special type of bad this year.

Los Angeles Chargers -6 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans at Wembley Stadium (London)
Yes, Melvin Gordon is a late scratch, which hurts this selection, but I just didn't have enough time to process all of that, and the line-makers didn't either.  I still don't know how Tennessee has won as many games as they have.

Chicago Bears + 1 1/2 v. New England Patriots
The Patriots are better, yes, I get that.  But after the egg that Chicago laid last week at Miami, and with Allen Robinson and Khalil Mack both playing - and Rob Gronkowski not, I could see this being 31-30, or 21-20.

Indianapolis Colts -7 v. Buffalo Bills
Two weeks ago, Derek Anderson was out of football.  OUT OF FOOTBALL.  And here he is signed and starting.  You mean to tell me that Derek Anderson is better than Colin Kaepernick?

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans
I have gone back-and-forth on this game a number of times.  First, the Jaguars defense has not looked good the last couple of weeks, and could be just the remedy the Texans need to jump start their offense.  But, DeAndre Hopkins is hurt, and although will still play - and might still have a big game - they might not have enough firepower to beat the Jaguars - IF the Jaguars we know return to the field.  But then again, Blake Bortles.  Ugh.

Detroit Lions -3 at Miami Dolphins
There is no way the Lions allow two 70+ yard screen passes for touchdowns this week like Chicago gave up to Brock Osweiler, who has yet to actually throw a ball 8 yards pass the line of scrimmage.

Minnesota -3 1/2 at New York Jets 
I don't think that Isaiah Crowell can rush for that many yards against this Minnesota Vikings defense.  Not sure that the Jets can cover both Stefan Diggs AND Adam Thielen.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 v. Carolina Panthers
Strength versus strength:  Carolina is 4th in the NFL in rushing and Philadelphia is 2 in rush defense.  Philadelphia has so much more to offer on the other side of the ball, though.

Cleveland Browns +3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Browns, who are 5th in the NFL in rushing, have just handed the keys to rookie Nick Chubb, as they traded Carlos Hyde to the Jaguars this week.  Will be interested in seeing how, if at all, that affects the offense.  Tampa is still not very dynamic without Ryan Fitzpatrick, so I will take the points.

New Orleans Saints + 2 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
One of the two marquee games this week, with the best offense versus the best defense.  Can Joe Flacco do enough so that the defense doesn't have to stop Drew Brees?  Probably, but Drew Brees still makes just enough plays to probably win outright.

Washington Racists +1 v. Dallas Cowboys
Two good defenses, with virtually anemic offenses.  Washington is at home, and for some reason, I just think they are better.

San Francisco 49ers +9 v. Los Angeles Rams
Let's be clear, Rams win this game.but San Francisco has not been a pushover since losing Jimmy Garrapolo. I see a backdoor cover on a last minute touchdown by San Francisco to lost by 7.

Cincinnati Bengals +6 at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City's offense is virtually unstoppable, but their defense gives up everything (last in total defense, 31st in pass defense; 27th in run defense), and Cincinnati is the 6th highest scoring team in the league.  I will take 6 points knowing Kansas City is going to give up a lot themselves.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. New York Giants
A Monday Night Football game that most people won't watch.

Big Bet
Philadelphia Eagles -5 v. Carolina Panthers
Strength versus strength:  Carolina is 4th in the NFL in rushing and Philadelphia is 2 in rush defense.  Philadelphia has so much more to offer on the other side of the ball, though.

I almost selected the Indianapolis game, but Derek Anderson is that much of a wildcard.

Last Week's Record: 6-8-1

Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 45-42-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 2-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($445)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($480)