Well - after two long, grueling weeks - especially for those of you that may have accidentally stubled onto the Pro Bowl - we are back for the Super Bowl. Let's jump right into the picks. Given that there is only one game - I may make a few prop bets also.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks...
Kansas City Chiefs +1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Look, the Eagles ARE the play here. I knew since the line was set that I was going to select the Eagles. Then I found out that 73% of the bets are on Philadelphia. Since it is always best to go AGAINST the majority of the bettors, I settleed on Kansas City. Plus, I realize that Jalen Hurts hasn't thrown a good meaningful pass in like 2 months. All of the thoughts are on Mahomes' ankle, which will be shot up if it hurts, when Hurts' shoulder is way more questionable.
Kansas City Chiefs +110 v. Philadelphia Eagles (Bet $100 to win $110)
In for an ounce in for a pound, am I right? Also, for all of the notoriety that the Eagles' pass rush has garnered this year - all of it deserved - (most sacks in a season and 4 players with at least 12 sacks), but Kansas City only gave up 26 sacks this year (2nd fewest in the NFL.) The Eagles gave up 44, and Kansas City does have some pass rushers in Chris Jones, Frank Clark and George Karlaiftis.
Kansas City Chiefs v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 51
This is the top to scoring teams in the league, and both teams have had Super Bowl runs in the not-so-distant past. That means none of the players will be overwhelemed by the moment, and I think they will come out firing. Plus, both teams - but especially Philadelphia - love to go for it on 4th down. This means some touchdowns instead of field goals, or good field position for the other team.
Chris Stapleton National Anthem UNDER Two Minutes Seven Seconds
If Stapleton overly-blueses this thing, it could be close.
Kenneth Gainwell OVER 19 1/2 rushing yards (-110 - Bet 110 to win 100)
Philadelphia loves them some Kenneth Gainwell. I feel like this is a lock.
Isiah Pacheco OVER 15 1/2 receiving yards
He has hit this in 6 of the last 9 games. Could be close with Toney and McKinnon taking dump offs too.
Isiah Pacheco UNDER 11 1/5 rush attempts
Less rushes if he is catching passes, plus 3 other players (Edwards-Helaire, McKinnon, Toney) to take some carries too.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 18 1/2 rushing yards
Dude can scramble, even if the ankle is bad.
Kansas City Chiefs v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 5 1/2 sacks
See above about Philadelphia's pass rush, and propensity to give up sacks.
Kansas City Chiefs OVER 2 1/2 Sacks
Chris Jones, Frank Clark and George Karlaiftis all get at least 1.
Kansas City Chiefs v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 3 1/2 Field goals
High-scoring offenses do not stall in the red zone.
Big Bet:
Kansas City Chiefs v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 51
This is the top to scoring teams in the league, and both teams have had Super Bowl runs in the not-so-distant past. That means none of the players will be overwhelemed by the moment, and I think they will come out firing. Plus, both teams - but especially Philadelphia - love to go for it on 4th down. This means some touchdowns instead of field goals, or good field position for the other team.
If both of these teams have an average game, we hit 57.
Chris Stapleton National Anthem UNDER Two Minutes Seven Seconds
If Stapleton overly-blueses this thing, it could be close.
The average time to sing the anthem is 1:47.
Kansas City Chiefs v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 5 1/2 sacks
See above about Philadelphia's pass rush, and propensity to give up sacks.
I feel like we will see quite a few this game, but spread out throughout the four quarters, not every play like last year.
Last Week's Record: 2-4
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 155-135-9-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 11-8-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($405)
Playoff Winnings (Losses): $679.50
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $824.50
