Picks of the Week

Exactly even last week, which those that gamble know is a losing week.  Still up for the season after two weeks, so no complaints yet.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams -3 at San Francisco 49ers
Although picking Los Angeles goes against almost everything smart (don't pick road intra-divisional favorites; don't pick the road team on Thursdays for starters), and the fact that San Francisco played Seattle close on the road in a 12-9 defeat, which I think says more about Seattle than San Francisco.  I am going with the Rams.  Boy did I talk myself out of a win.

Baltimore Ravens -3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars in London
Two road teams travelling five time zones.  Nobody has any idea what is going to happen here, so I am picking the team that should be better.

Chicago Bears +7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Let's be clear, Pittsburgh is going to win this game.  The only question is does Chicago lose like in week 1 against Atlanta, or do they lose like in week 2 against Tampa.  Since they are home, I like the similarities in week 1.  Antonio Brown could have a big, big game.

Denver Broncos -3 at Buffalo Bills
West coast team going east and playing the early games are usually suicide for gamblers.  But, Denver isn't quite west coast, so the extra hour helps them cover.  Trevor Siemian has been more than competent in the first two games and C.J. Anderson is averaging 100 yards per game.  Buffalo's defense has been stout this year, though giving up only 235 yards per game.  Still, I like Denver.

Carolina Panthers -5 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints
Given how both team's defenses have played so far this year, this could be a shootout.  Believe it or not, that favors Carolina as increased passing attempts lead to a key interception at the end of the game.

Atlanta Falcons -3 at Detroit Lions
Detroit is much improved and could seriously challenge for a playoff spot this year.  But, Detroit's pass defense is only 19th in the league, and Matt Ryan is 3-1 against Detroit.

Cleveland Browns -1 at Indianapolis Colts
So far, I truly believe the Colts are the worst team in the league, and since this is basically a pick 'em, I don't care that I am giving up points on the road.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 at Minnesota Vikings
Once again, basically a pick 'em.  Minnesota, with or without Bradford, would have a hard time against this Buccaneers defense.  Dalvin Cook could be really special, and he is going to have to be today in order for the Vikings to have any chance whatsoever.

New England Patriots -13 1/2 v. Houston Texans
Look for New England to keep rolling.  The Texans do not have the speed at the skill positions that Kansas City had, so they will not be able to put pressure on the Patriots defense.  New England in a rout.

Miami Dolphins -6 at New York Jets
I hate picking road favorites, especially in intra-divisional games, but both New York's and Miami's passing defenses are atrocious.  Only Miami - with Devante Parker and Jarvis Landry - is poised to take advantage of this flaw.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. New York Giants
The Giants are in the handful of worst teams in the league.Philadelphia is the third ranked passing offense and the fifth ranked offense in the league.  If they can find a steady running game, they could be dangerous.  The Giants have no running game whatsoever.

Tennessee Titans -2 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle has major problems on offense, and it starts with the offensive line.  The Seahawks are 30th in passing yards and 27th in total offense.  Tennessee, behind DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry are 6th in the league in rushing and 7th overall.  Seattle has a hard time scoring averaging 10.5 a game.  Tennessee doesn't, averaging 26.5.

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Cincinnati Bengals 
Andy Dalton - even when he was going good - always seemed to be a bit off.  Now, Bengals fans are already chanting for A.J. McCarron.  I assume Brent Musberger is as well.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Los Angeles Chargers
Kareem Hunt versus the 26th ranked rushing defense in the league.

Oakland Raiders -3 at Washington Racists
Honestly, I figure that since I am already picking a few road favorites, why not just keep picking them.  Washington's pass defense is 26th in the league, and Oakland has a few weapons, namely Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree.

Dallas Cowboys -3 at Arizona Cardinals
Yes, another road favorite, and I am not happy about this.  But, Carson Palmer is playing like he retired 3 seasons ago, and without David Johnson, this team is hanging together only by a good string of duct tape.

Big Bet

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. New York Giants
The Giants are in the handful of worst teams in the league.Philadelphia is the third ranked passing offense and the fifth ranked offense in the league.  If they can find a steady running game, they could be dangerous.  The Giants have no running game whatsoever.

My other choices were intra-divsional road favorites (Miami/Tampa Bay), so I am taking the home team Philadelphia Eagles.  Miami and Tampa Bay should be locks as well.

Last Week's Record:  8-8
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  16-14-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($275)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  $15

Picks of the Week

Not a bad start to the season.  The missed Chargers field goal would have made for an excellent way to end the week, but alas, no comlplaints.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals -5 1/2 v. Houston Texans
Not a great start to the week, but the visiting team on a short week for the Thursday games have a horrible record, plus a first start for a rookie, albeit talented, quarterback.  It was a really bad game, and Cincinnati really outplayed Houston, except for one play, and one drive.  Good start for Watson.

Chicago Bears +7 at Tampa Bay Buccanneers
Chicago played really tough, especially defensively, against an Atlanta team that lead the NFL in scoring last year.  Tampa Bay will be playing its first game after Hurricane Irma postponed week 1.  Tampa is everyone's favorite non-playoff team to make the playoffs this year, but I am not sure they will win by more than a touchdown.

Cleveland Browns +7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
For the past few years, I have not been able to figure out the Baltimore Ravens, and last week was no exception.  I do know that Cleveland played the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team many think could usurp the New England Patriots in the AFC, tough.  DeShone Kizer looks like he belongs in this league.

Carolina Panthers -6 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
The Panthers thoroughly manhandled the San Francisco 49ers, but I suspect I will be writing some version of this sentence a lot this year.  Buffalo defeated an equally horrendous New York Jets team, but that game was closer than it should have been.  I'll take Carolina, who greatly benefits from a less than stellar starting schedule.

Indianapolis Colts +7 v. Arizona Cardinals
Carson Palmer looked horrendous in week 1, and who knows what will happen without do everything running back David Johnson.  Indianapolis looked downright awful last week, and who knows what will happen with Patriot castoff Jacoby Brissett.  I will take the local kid (at least for me) and points.

Tennessee Titans -1 at Jacksonville Jaguars
If I told you this would be a battle of a 1-0 team versus a 0-1 team, there is no way that anyone would ever have thought the Jaguars would be the team with the win.  As we saw Thursday night, it appears that Houston is not good, so I am going to discount the Jaguars win, until they show me more.  Tennessee is a dreaded road favorite, but 1 point isn't really a favorite, so I won't sweat it too much.

Kansas City -5 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia has won 3 of their last 4 against Kansas City, including the last 2 at Arrowhead, but this is not an ordinary Chiefs team.  They have speed in rookie running back Kareem Hunt and receiver Tyreek Hill, and Alex Smith isn't afraid to throw downfield.  Philadelphia looked really good against the Washington Racists last week.  However, it isn't clear to me that the Eagles have established a running game with LaGarrette Blount yet.  Although I think Kansas City will cover, this should still be close for most of the game.

New Orleans +6 v. New England Patriots
New England looked downright slow, and shall I say, old, against Kansas City in week 1, and this manifested itself on the edges of the defenses.  Unless New Orleans uses more of Alvin Kamara and less of Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson, they likely are not going to be able to take advantage of this Patriot DEFiciency.  They do, however, have Michael Thomas that can fly.  I honestly think the Patriots can win this game, just not sure it'll be by more than 6.

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 1/2 v. Minnesoata Vikings
My knee jerk reaction to week 1 would be to select Minnesota off their amazing performance last week.  But, I can't.  Sam Bradford is still Sam Bradford.  He could have a very good season behind an offensive line that looks revamped, and a spry Dalvin Cook.  However, Pittsburgh gets Le'Veon Bell back (not sure last week was "back") and they still have Antonio Brown.  Advantage Steelers.

Oakland Raiders -13 1/2 v, New York Jets
I hate this line.  I hate it, I hate it.  I would feel more comfortable teasing it down even 1 or 2 points, but that isn't the purpose of this exercise.  The Raiders defense with the exception of Khalil Mack is their weakness.  The Jets weakness is at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, offensive line, linebacker, corner back and special teams.

Miami Dolphins + 3 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers
I really like the CHargers this year, but Miami, a bit of a wildcard playing its first game of the season, looks to be well-balanced offensively.  Of course, Jay Cutler will do something stupid and lose some games the Dolphins should win, but the half point in this spread means a lot to me.  The Chargers, who would held primarily in check by the vaunted Broncos defense, should open it up a bit more this week, but not enough to blow out Miami.  I'll take Jay Ajayi and the points.

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys
Those that read this column regularly know that I hate road favorites.  especially in a game in which the road favorite has to play the Broncos defense after a subpar performance against a vastly inferior New York Giants team.  It looks like Denver is going to rely on the solid-if-not-spectacular C.J. Anderson to control the ball and let its defense hold the other team philosophy this year.  It could work here today.

Los Angeles Rams -2 1/2 v. Washington Racists
Is it possible that the Rams have more firepower than the Racists?  Kirk Cousins needs a bounce-back game if he wants the big contract at the end of the season, which means he will want to throw it early and often this week.  Look for Trumaine Johnson to seal the deal with an interception on a pass forced by Aaron Donald pressure..

Seattle Seahawks -14 v. San Francisco 49ers
It's San Francisco.

Green Bay Packers +3 at Atlanta Falcons
For no other reason than Green Bay looked much better than Atlanta last week in their defeat of the Seahawks in week 1.  Green Bay looking to assert some early NFC dominance over a team that beat them in the regular season and playoffs last year.

Detroit Lions +3 at New York Giants
I feel that when it is all said and done the Giants will be a bottom dweller this year, and Detroit will  be one of the surprise teams.  I will gladly take points against the Giants.

Big Bet

Chicago Bears +7 at Tampa Bay Buccanneers
After what I saw last week and a much improved Bears defense, especially against the run, and a Buccaneers team without Doug Martin, I think the Bears at least keep this within a touchdown.  Altough I am getting more points with Cleveland, this bet seems safer.

Last Week's Record:  8-6-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  8-6-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $290
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  $290

Picks of the Week

Week 9 of the NFL Season, and last week stunk as well.  It is clear that I have no idea what the hell is going on in the NFL this year.  That being said, I am not giving up.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Atlanta Falcons -4 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I put this pick on Facebook prior to kickoff, so no allegations of cheating.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
I hate selecting road favorites, as I type ad nauseum in this blog, but I just think seeing Roethlisberger under center will inspire the team, even if he isn't all the way back to 100%.

Cleveland Browns +7 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys
I am not so sure that any team plays harder than the Browns.  Not sure they will win, but I imagine that it is going to be closer than most expect.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Questions are already being asked of Gus Bradley as to when he is going to bench Blake Bortles with Chad Henne.  Think about that for a moment.

Miami Dolphins -4 v. New York Jets
I am not expecting Jay Ajayi to put up 200 yards like he did in his last two games before the bye, but the Dolphins offense has definitely discovered something that works for them, and I don't think Fitzpatrick can throw enough to keep up.

Minnesota Vikings -6 v. Detroit Lions

Is Minnesota ripe for a rebound after a lackluster performance Monday night against the Bears, or did a surprisingly spry Bears defense show the recipe to defeat the Vikings stagnant offense.  It could be both, but the Lions aren't the team to take advantage of the Vikings.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 at New York Giants

The Eagles certainly aren't as great as their start, but the Giants have no running game at all.  I'll take the points.

Carolina Panthers -3 at Los Angeles Rams
This is the pick in which I honestly scratch my own head over it, but, is it possible that Carolina turned the corner last week?  I hope so.

New Orleans Saints -4 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco is just horrible.

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Indianapolis Colts
This is a gut reaction, because the brain says that 7 is too many points.  Perhaps the new "running" game found by the Packers is for real.  By "running" I mean "more passing".

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
We are going to look back on Philip Rivers's career and wonder how he did what he did with some of the teams he had.

Denver Broncos +1 at Oakland Raiders
I am actually a big believer in the Raiders.  But, their defense needs to do A LOT to catch up to the offense.  Carr, Murray, Cooper, Crabtree and Company will not score as much as they have grown accustomed, and that is why Denver will win this game.

Buffalo Bills +7 at Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo seems a bit different to me lately (with the exception of the New England game, but isn't that everybody's exception?), and that is a good thing overall.  Not sure they will beat Seattle, but I think they can keep it close.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
I hate selecting road favorites, as I type ad nauseum in this blog, but I just think seeing Roethlisberger under center will inspire the team, even if he isn't all the way back to 100%.
This is my big bet mainly because I have no idea how Baltimore is even 3-4.

Last Week's Record:  5-8
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  57-63-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($545)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($2435)

Picks of the Week

Week 2 of the NFL Season, which means week 2 of my picks.  A good start to my season, going 10-6 last week.  I hope to keep that momentum moving forward, and perhaps be more successful on my guaranteed pick.  A couple of notes, I reviewed last week's picks and I had listed the Jaguars at -4 1/2 against the Packers.  Of course that was supposed to be + 4 1/2.  Also, I watched the Thursday game with my buddy Glen, and I posted my selection, "Jets +1?!" on Facebook prior to kickoff.  This means I took the Jets, but was not happy about it.  Turns out, I was happy about it.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

New York Jets +1 at Buffalo Bills

Despite all of the statistics that showed how much the Ryan brothers own Ryan Fitzpatrick, a lot of that data came when Rex was the coach - and thus had at his disposal - the Jets defense when Fitzpatrick was toiling in Buffalo.  This time, Fitzpatrick has Matt Forte.  Let's not forget how bad Buffalo looked in week 1.

Carolina Panthers +13 v. San Francisco 49ers
I hate, HATE, that I am giving up virtually 2 touchdowns this early in the season before we get a really good feel of all of the teams.  But, San Francisco played the absolute latest game they could last week (the second Monday Night Football game starting around 10:00 p.m. Eastern), and they travel east to play the earliest of games this week.

Baltimore Ravens -5 at Cleveland Browns
I hate, HATE, giving up points on the road (the dreaded road favorite), but this Cleveland team is not good, super young (14 rookies!) and lost their starting quarterback last week.  The Ravens get a gift of schedule starting with Buffalo and Cleveland.

Detroit Lions -6 v. Tennessee Titans
The Lions looked good on the road against Indianapolis, whereas they now get to host the troubled Titans, who looked downright pedestrian against Minnesota.  Matt Stafford looked great without Calvin Johnson, spreading the ball around to everybody, with 6 receivers having at least 3 catches, and 8 receivers total catching balls in the game.

Kansas City Chiefs +1 at Houston Texans
It may take me a while to determine exactly what we have with Houston, as they seemed like two completely different teams last week against the Bears.  The same could be said about the Chiefs, except they are a more known quality, with an amazing team defense and a steady Alex Smith.  If the Chiefs can get to Brock Osweiler, this is a solid bet.

Miami Dolphins +6 at New England Patriots

This pick is completely counterintuitive for me, and I may rue the day that I made it, but, despite how impressive the Patriots looked against Arizona and how great a coach Bill Belichick is, but, the Dolphins played great defense against the Seahawks, and except for a dropped pass by Kenny Stills is the likely winner.  Not sure the Dolphins win this game, but should play within a touchdown.

New Orleans Saints +4 at New York Giants

The Giants defeated a tough Cowboys team last week in a game that was completely devoid of big plays.  The Saints lived on big plays last week in a loss to the Raiders.  I suspect that the Saints will make 1 or 2 big plays to at least cover this spread.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Boy did Pittsburgh look impressive last week, but I suspect that part of that display was due to the ability - or lack thereof - of their opponent, the Washington Redskins.  In a close divisional battle, I will usually take the points.  Plus, all three games last year between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh were won by the visiting team.

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Washington Redskins

Boy did the Redskins look awful last week, but a large part of that could be attributed to playing the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Cowboys defense could be exactly what aids an ailing run defense.  What could also help the Redskins inept rushing offense is finding a running back that was more than a backup in college (I am looking at you Matt Jones and Chris Thompson).  Prescott looks like he could be really good, and if I am Josh Norman, I am not looking forward to playing Dez Bryant (oh wait, he probably won't).  Kirk Cousins should hit on a big play or two to DeSean Jackson.  With all of these thoughts, and the fact that this is a rivalry game, I'll take the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Arizona Cardinals

Do not be surprised if this turns out to be the best game of the weekend.  Jameis Winston is the real deal, and he spreads the ball around without just focusing on his star receiver Mike Evans.  This strategy was successfully used by the Patriots last week.  Arizona's offense can be prolific, but the linebacking corps of the Bucs, led by Lavonte David, is awesome.  I expect a great, close game.

Los Angeles Rams +6 v. Seattle Seahawks
This is my least favorite selection on the board.  But, I  just cannot select a second road favorite (see Baltimore v. Cleveland), and the Rams did defeat the Seahawks not once, but twice last year.  This sure does seem to be a much worse Rams team, but they still have some All-Pro players on defense, and Seattle did not look impressive against the Dolphins.  I will say that the Rams score a late touchdown to lose 28-24.

Denver Broncos -6 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

I said last week that I did not think the Colts were going to be a playoff team.  The Broncos looked phenomenal against the Panthers.  Yes, the Colts scored lots of points last week against the Lions, but this Broncos defense is much more stout than the Lions defense.

Atlanta Falcons + 4 1/2 at Oakland Raiders

I am completely on the Raiders bandwagon, and I still feel that they can win this game.  However, the defense gave up too many big plays to the Saints, and the Saints do not have Julio Jones.  For that reason I look for the Falcons to cover this spread, and possibly win outright.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at San Diego Chargers
I have no idea what happened with San Diego last week against the Chiefs, as the Chargers looked like world beaters in the first half, and like beaten dogs the second.  Does Keenan Allen mean that much?  Perhaps.  The Jaguars played the Packers tough, even without any semblance of a running game.  It would appear to me that Chris Ivory will become the starting running back, once healthy, and that could make quite a bit of difference.  Can Travis Benjamin step in to fill Keenan Allen's shoes?  Probably not this soon.

Green Bay Packers -2 at Minnesota Vikings

OK, so here is my second road favorite, but the Vikings will be starting their second quarterback - Sam Bradford - in two games.  The Packers already won one game on the road - at Jacksonville - and the Vikings still looked lackluster despite their victory against Tennessee last week.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Carson Wentz looked good in his first game, but that was against Cleveland.  The Bears defense looked much better, led by free agent middle linebackers, Jerrell Freeman with 17 total tackles and Danny Trevathan with 11 total tackles, plus a sack.  The Bears should harass Wentz enough to give the Bears the victory.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Denver Broncos -6 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

I said last week that I did not think the Colts were going to be a playoff team.  The Broncos looked phenomenal against the Panthers.  Yes, the Colts scored lots of points last week against the Lions, but this Broncos defense is much more stout than the Lions defense.
I generally like to get points for the Big Bet, but the fact that Denver's defense could neutralize Indianapolis's offense, coupled with the fact that CJ Anderson looks really healthy to start the season gives me confidence in the Broncos this week.

Last Week's Record:  10-6
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 10-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 0-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $175
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $175