Picks of the Week

 

A second amazing week - IN A ROW!!!  After consecutive 11-5 weeks, what do we think is going to happen this week?  It doesn't seem like there are as many Covid issues, so back to normal could mean back to reality (back to life) for me.  Let's hope not and keep this winning streak going!  For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears -6 1/2 v. New York Giants

Wouldn't it be just like Matt Nagy to win his last home game, and convincingly, with Andy Dalton at QB, and then use that to try to leverage another season as head coach?  Plus, a Bears win simultaneously helps the Giants with their own first round pick, then knocks down the one they picked up from the Bears in the Justin Field draft-day trade.  Unfortunately, the converse is also true.

Tennessee Titans -3 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

Yes the Dolphins have a 7-game winning streak, but those have come against the depleted Saints, Jets twice, Giants, Panthers, Texans, and their one good win, the Ravens.  Tennessee NEEDS this game to stay in the hunt for the 1-seed and home-field advantage in the AFC.

Buffalo Bills -14 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

This pick seems preposterous given the huge number, but hear me out here .... The Bills have scored at least 27 in the last 3 games, including 31+ in the last two games.  Atlanta is giving up the 4th most points in the NFL, whereas the Bills are the third stingiest defense in points allowed - plus 1st in total defense, and 1st in passing defense.  Atlanta is also near the bottom in points scored.  Still a scary number, though.

Jacksonville Jaguars +16 1/2 at New England Patriots

This line is just WAY too high.  New England still wins easily.

Las Vegas Raiders +8 at Indianapolis Colts

Yes, Carson Wentz has cleared protocols, and yes, Jonathan Taylor is the MVP of the NFL this year, but players have been sluggish coming out of Covid and the Raiders NEED this game more than the Colts, so they will be desperate to keep it close.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -13 1/2 at New York Jets

Yes big line, and yes Tampa Bay is playing on the road, BUT, dare we say it, this team functions best when Antonio Brown is in the lineup, and the offense should be clicking today.  Look for a big game from Brown and a touchdown for Cameron Brate.

Baltimore Ravens +6 v. Los Angeles Rams

Lamar Jackson MAY play.  Not sure if he is ready, and the Rams are solidly better, especially since integrating Sony Michel into the offense.  But, it is a west coast team traveling east to play the 1:00 game, so I am taking the points.  Not sure why as all of the traditional gambling rules have gone haywire this year, but there it is.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 1/2 at Washington Football Team

Philadelphia just beat the Football Team by 10 two weeks ago, and despite now travelling to Raljon, Maryland, Philadelphia has improved and Washington has digressed since then.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

This should be the most exciting game of the day, with both QBs (Mahomes and Burrow) just throwing the ball all over the field.  Plus, Kansas City's pass defense is 25th in the league and Cincinnati's is worse, at 29th.  Should be a high-scoring affair, and in a shootout, give me Mahomes.

Denver Broncos +7 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

This game should be a grind, meaning I will take the touchdown and the hook.  I still expect the Chargers to win, but maybe 20-17.

Houston Texans +12 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Houston's has scored over 30 in the past 2 games, putting up 30 against the Jaguars and 41 against the Chargers in consecutive wins.  With the unknown that is Trey Lance most likely manning the helm for the Niners offense, Houston should be able to take some of the things they learned in the past few weeks to keep this relatively close.

Dallas Cowboys -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona has lost two in a row and is reeling, and although they do have a number of offensive weapons, the loss of DeAndre Hopkins hurts everyone.  Dallas is crusing, having won 4 in a row, and if they get up on Arizona early, they could force a turnover for their 10th non-offensive touchdown of they year.

 

Detroit Lions +8 at Seattle Seahawks

Once again, Dan Campbell said that nobody was going to play harder than his Lions, regardless of talent, and he was right.  Seattle will be looking for some redemption having lost to the lowly Bears last week but, even if they win, this game will be close.

New Orleans Saints -6 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The wheels have fallen off the Carolina Panthers season, having lost 5 in a row.  Make it six.

Green Bay Packers -13 v. Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Rodgers versus ... Sean Mannion?  Really?  He is in the league?

Cleveland Browns -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Nobody will be able to rescue Ben Roethlisberger's final home game at Heinz Field.  Despite American Underdog playing in movie theaters, most of the time there is no storybook ending.

Big Bet:

Philadelphia Eagles -5 1/2 at Washington Football Team

Philadelphia just beat the Football Team by 10 two weeks ago, and despite now travelling to Raljon, Maryland, Philadelphia has improved and Washington has digressed since then.

I hate picking divisional road teams, much less favorites, as my Big Bet, but this seems the most obvious choice, since I don't want to go with Detroit as my Big Bet two weeks in a row (although successful last week).

Last Week's Record:  11-5

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  130-110

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $700

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  $465