Picks of the Week

Exactly even last week, which those that gamble know is a losing week.  Still up for the season after two weeks, so no complaints yet.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams -3 at San Francisco 49ers
Although picking Los Angeles goes against almost everything smart (don't pick road intra-divisional favorites; don't pick the road team on Thursdays for starters), and the fact that San Francisco played Seattle close on the road in a 12-9 defeat, which I think says more about Seattle than San Francisco.  I am going with the Rams.  Boy did I talk myself out of a win.

Baltimore Ravens -3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars in London
Two road teams travelling five time zones.  Nobody has any idea what is going to happen here, so I am picking the team that should be better.

Chicago Bears +7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Let's be clear, Pittsburgh is going to win this game.  The only question is does Chicago lose like in week 1 against Atlanta, or do they lose like in week 2 against Tampa.  Since they are home, I like the similarities in week 1.  Antonio Brown could have a big, big game.

Denver Broncos -3 at Buffalo Bills
West coast team going east and playing the early games are usually suicide for gamblers.  But, Denver isn't quite west coast, so the extra hour helps them cover.  Trevor Siemian has been more than competent in the first two games and C.J. Anderson is averaging 100 yards per game.  Buffalo's defense has been stout this year, though giving up only 235 yards per game.  Still, I like Denver.

Carolina Panthers -5 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints
Given how both team's defenses have played so far this year, this could be a shootout.  Believe it or not, that favors Carolina as increased passing attempts lead to a key interception at the end of the game.

Atlanta Falcons -3 at Detroit Lions
Detroit is much improved and could seriously challenge for a playoff spot this year.  But, Detroit's pass defense is only 19th in the league, and Matt Ryan is 3-1 against Detroit.

Cleveland Browns -1 at Indianapolis Colts
So far, I truly believe the Colts are the worst team in the league, and since this is basically a pick 'em, I don't care that I am giving up points on the road.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 at Minnesota Vikings
Once again, basically a pick 'em.  Minnesota, with or without Bradford, would have a hard time against this Buccaneers defense.  Dalvin Cook could be really special, and he is going to have to be today in order for the Vikings to have any chance whatsoever.

New England Patriots -13 1/2 v. Houston Texans
Look for New England to keep rolling.  The Texans do not have the speed at the skill positions that Kansas City had, so they will not be able to put pressure on the Patriots defense.  New England in a rout.

Miami Dolphins -6 at New York Jets
I hate picking road favorites, especially in intra-divisional games, but both New York's and Miami's passing defenses are atrocious.  Only Miami - with Devante Parker and Jarvis Landry - is poised to take advantage of this flaw.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. New York Giants
The Giants are in the handful of worst teams in the league.Philadelphia is the third ranked passing offense and the fifth ranked offense in the league.  If they can find a steady running game, they could be dangerous.  The Giants have no running game whatsoever.

Tennessee Titans -2 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle has major problems on offense, and it starts with the offensive line.  The Seahawks are 30th in passing yards and 27th in total offense.  Tennessee, behind DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry are 6th in the league in rushing and 7th overall.  Seattle has a hard time scoring averaging 10.5 a game.  Tennessee doesn't, averaging 26.5.

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Cincinnati Bengals 
Andy Dalton - even when he was going good - always seemed to be a bit off.  Now, Bengals fans are already chanting for A.J. McCarron.  I assume Brent Musberger is as well.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Los Angeles Chargers
Kareem Hunt versus the 26th ranked rushing defense in the league.

Oakland Raiders -3 at Washington Racists
Honestly, I figure that since I am already picking a few road favorites, why not just keep picking them.  Washington's pass defense is 26th in the league, and Oakland has a few weapons, namely Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree.

Dallas Cowboys -3 at Arizona Cardinals
Yes, another road favorite, and I am not happy about this.  But, Carson Palmer is playing like he retired 3 seasons ago, and without David Johnson, this team is hanging together only by a good string of duct tape.

Big Bet

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. New York Giants
The Giants are in the handful of worst teams in the league.Philadelphia is the third ranked passing offense and the fifth ranked offense in the league.  If they can find a steady running game, they could be dangerous.  The Giants have no running game whatsoever.

My other choices were intra-divsional road favorites (Miami/Tampa Bay), so I am taking the home team Philadelphia Eagles.  Miami and Tampa Bay should be locks as well.

Last Week's Record:  8-8
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  16-14-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($275)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  $15