NFL Picks of the Week

A horrible playoff predicting week, but it sets up great matchups for today.  Always trying to look at the positive, I suppose.  The four remaining teams are the top 4 seeds from the season, and the top 4 scoring offenses for the entire year: (Chiefs, Saints, Rams, Patriots - in that order), so that much of the analysis will center on things other than prolific scoring offenses.

The playoffs are different than the regular season in that there are fewer matchup, so because of this I will be selecting my picks via the spread, via the money line and with the over/under.  This allows 12 picks for the weekend.  I will still be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100 (except for the favorites on the money line, which will be selected to try to win $100.  Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New Orleans Saints -3 v. Los Angeles Rams
Since we know that both teams can score practically at will, we are going to have to focus on the defenses.  The visiting Rams have the 19th ranked total defense and 20th in scoring defense, but 23rd in rushing defense.  As much as was written and said about the Rams using both Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson to bash the Dallas Cowboys last week - both went for over 100 yards each - this could be a really big game for the other two-headed backfield which includes Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram.  Plus, New Orleans' defense, which finished 14th in total and scoring defense, has a stout rush defense finishing 2nd in the NFL and not giving up 100 yards to any single running back this  year.  Sheldon Rankins being out does hurt that front line a bit, but look for the Saints to win this game the old-fashioned way, by running and stopping the run.

New Orleans Saints -165 v. Los Angeles Rams (Bet $165 to win $100)
If I think the Saints are going to cover the spread, I definitely have to with the money line on this one, as the -165 line does not scare me away, especially since the Rams are only +140.  No need to hedge my bets.  I will bet against the team with the worst quarterback remaining, one that played well most of the season,  but struggled down the stretch.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints UNDER 56 1/2
The unders have been hitting way more than they should this playoff season, and I am definitely taking the over in the next game, so I am going under here.  Plus, both defenses played very well last week, giving me hope for a repeat performance.  Perhaps something like 28-20 Saints.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 v. New England Patriots
I do not buy into this whole "passing of the torch" game from Brady as the GOAT to Patrick Mahomes, as the up-and-comer defeats the all-time great.  Mostly because I feel that Dan Marino is the GOAT - man, nobody could fling it like him), but also because of matchups.  Everybody always says the Belichick schemes to take away the other persons best player on offense.  So, who does he plan against?  If he tries to take away Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelcie is going to have a ton of favorable matchups, and despite the fact Rob Gronkowski is in this game, Kelcie is the best tight end in football right now.  If the tries to take away Kelcie, not even Stephon Gilmore can cover Tyreek Hill man-to-man for the entire game.  Yes, New England beat Kansas City 43-40 earlier this year, but that was in New England, in week 6.  The Chiefs did outscore New England 31-19 in the second half, meaning they caught on to what New England was trying to do defensively.   New England's crowning grace is that they do not rely upon any one, two or even three weapons offensively, which could expose Kansas City's 31st ranked defense, but my guess is not by enough in Kansas City.

Kansas City Cheifs -160 v. New England Patriots
For all of the reasons I stated in the previous pick.  Plus, Patrick Mahomes was the best quarterback this year, and Tom Brady wasn't even close to that level.  Yes experience counts, but so does talent, and right now Mahomes has lots of it himself, and around him.

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 56 
I already feel that the Chiefs are going to score points, and Kansas City does have the 31st ranked defense in the NFL, so New England should score its share.  This number opened at 58 and dropped two full points to 56, which I suspect has more to do with the weather than anybody's faith in the defenses.

Big Bet
New Orleans Saints -3 v. Los Angeles Rams
The Saints have easily been the best overall team in the NFL for the entire season.  That has to count for something.

Last Week's Record:  4-8
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  135-134-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($525)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($1510)

Playoff Picks

Boy was I way off the reservation last week. 11-0 is way gone, both straight-up and against the spread. I need a big comeback week to try to get back to respectability, after a darn good season of picks.

New Orleans Saints -3 at San Francisco
New Orleans Saints

The Saints have consistently been the second best team in the league this year (excepting the Packers). They have a ton of weapons. I know that the 49ers may have the defense to stop almost anybody, but their most experienced playoff performer is David Akers (now watch him hit the winning field goal). Drew Brees is white hot, and I look forward to the Saints-Packers rematch next week.

Denver Broncos +13 1/2 at New England Patriots
New England Patriots

I fully expect the Patriots to move on to next week's AFC Championship game, however, their defense is so bad, that I do not think they will outscore the Broncos by two touchdowns. "But Pepster, they already did". I know, but that was with the aid of three turnovers. If they do not get the turnovers this week, it will be a much closer game. I expect it to be close, but the much maligned defense of the Patriots will make two big plays, one by Vince Wilfork in stuffing a third or fourth and short, and one in the secondary by Patrick Chung. Also going against Denver, the playoff team playing a Saturday game after winning on the previous Sunday is 4-14 since 1990.

Houston Texans + 7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens

Once again, I pick the AFC favorite to win, with the underdog to cover. With both teams playing great defense and running the ball exceptionally well, I fully expect this game to have 2/3 of the possessions of the average game - maybe 8 or 9 a piece. This severely limits the amount of points one team can score, making it harder to cover a touchdown spread.

New York Giants + 7 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers

Green Bay has been the best team all year, and the week of rest helps them get their offensive line healthy (which they will need against the Giants) and an extra week of rest for Greg Jennings. the Giants front 7 will keep the game close, and the Giants offense will score enough against the Packers to make this a good game. I once again have to mention the player who I felt has played the best this season, regardless of position and regardless of statistics; Jason Pierre-Paul.


Playoff Record To Date

Straight Up: 1-3
Against the Spread: 1-3