Picks of the Week

 So last week was my worst week of the year.  Not only did I fall under .500, but I lost the big bet - a big bet that I even wrote was a horrible pick at the time I made it.  Perhaps sometimes I should listen to myself.  Anyway, perhaps a kick-start of a win on Thursday night can bring me out of the red for the season.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Arizaona Cardinals -2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Home team on a short week.  This was, finally, a great football game on Thursday night.  Week 1's Buffalo-Los Angeles matchup was a great game by the Bills, but not the Rams, and it was in Week 1, meaning not a short week.  Problem is, we will not get too many games on Thursday nights like this Arizona victory.

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

When teams do not score a lot of points (Indianapolis 17.2 per game and Tennessee 19.2 per game), I am going to want to take the points in the spread.  Plus, Matt Ryan is second in passing yards whereas Tennessee's defense is last in the NFL in pass defense.  This is a tough pick because Derrick Henry could have a huge game against Indianapolis' 20th ranked rush defense.

New York Giants +3 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Yes, the 5-1 Giants are underdogs on the road against Jacksonville.  Although I feel that New York's 5-1 record is not truly indicative of how average a team they are, they seem to come through when it matters most.  Plus, they are tied for 7th in scoring defense.  I'll take the points.

Carolina Panthers +13 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thirteen points in the NFL, on the road, in an intra-divisional game is A LOT of points.  I don't care if they did just trade Christian McCaffrey.  

Washington Commanders +4 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

So, did you know that Green Bay only averages 1 passing yard a game more than Washingon?  Sounds crazy, right?  Well, that changes as the Packers have the number 1 passing defense in the NFL, and Washington cannot run very well (24th in the NFL).  Of course, Brian Robinson is back and he looks lively.  So, you know what?  I am going to take the points, and expect a Taylor Heinicke bump.

Dallas Cowboys -6 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Detroit can score, as they are 3rd in the league in scoring offense.  But, the are alos last in the league in scoring defense, giving up an average of 32 points per game.  You read that right, 32 POINTS PER GAME!  Dallas's offense has looked pedestrian, at best, under Cooper Rush.  But, Dak Prescott is back.  Dallas makes a statement.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Honestly, this line looks a little high.  It should be about 4 1/2 in my estimation, but I am not an actuary (and THOSE people are the smartest people on the planet.)  Still, I am going to give the points for two reasons:  (1) Cincinati is 9th in passing offense and Atlanta is 31st in passing defense; and (2) Cincinnati is 3rd in third down percentage offense and Atlanta is 30th in third down percentage defense.  Frankly, you can score a lot of points if the other team cannot stop you on third-down.

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Our third consecutive 6 1/2 point spread, and trust me, I hate giving points on all three of the games.  But, I am going to do it, most reluctantly on this game and here is why.  Rushing.  But Pepster, Cleveland has the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL led by Nick Chubb, with some Kareem Hunt thrown in.  Correct, they do.  But, Baltimore is 8th in rushing defense, and could slow down the Browns' runners, some.  And, even with J.K. Dobbins out, Kenyan Drake is averaging more yards per carry than Nick Chubb.  Plus, Lamar Jackson is the 4th leading rusher in the NFL himself.

Denver Broncos +1 1/2 v. New York Jets

This pick is amazingly stupid, except there is a reason the spread is only 1 1/2.  First, the Broncos only give up 16 points per game.  Second, the Jets are travelling to altitude.  Third, is it possible that Wilson being out is the ultimate addition-by-subtraction?  Do the Broncos get a Brett Rypien/Josh Johnson bump?  I say yes.  Or even if they don't, Jets win 10-9.  Denver did play Monday night, which does not bode well for this pick, but Russell Wilson will not play today, and I think that makes the difference.

Houston Texans +7 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders might be the most disappointing team in the NFL right now, and, if they really want to make the playoffs, they have to start winning somewhere.  This looks like the right spot for that.  Easy pickings.  But, we know that sometimes the obvious bet isn't the smartest play.  Houston - as is typical in Lovie Smith-led teams - doesn't give up many points (13th in the league), and if they can hold true to that form today, they will win the bet, if not the game.  Josh Jacobs has himself a game, but the Raiders only win 27-21 in a backdoor cover (which I think is my first backdoor cover prediction this season.)

Los Angeles Chargers -5 v. Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith has been playing great football, and Kenneth Walker is an emerging star at running back, but the Chargers have won 3 in a row, doing it primarily by passing the ball with the 3rd best passing offense in football.  AND, Just Herbert gets Keenan Allen back from injury after having not played since week 1.  I hate this pick because the Chargers played Monday night, but Keenan Allen didn't, so I will keep it.

Kansas City Chiefs -1 at San Francisco 49ers

Honestly, I am picking the Chiefs because I believe there will be a over-exaggeration of the impacts on the Christian McCaffrey trade.  First, San Francisco can always run the ball, no matter the running back. Second, more passes to McCaffrey means a few less to Deebo, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle.  Third, that just seems to be the way the NFL works.  Plus, with San Francisco's expected increased reliance on their running game, Kansas City has the defense (4th in the NFL in rushing defense) to try and combat it.  Now, next week's game for the 49ers with a full week of practice for McCaffrey may be a whole different matter.

Miami Dolphins -7 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I hate overexaggerating the effects of one player, or one action, or just one of anything.  But, I am going to do it here.  Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa returns, and means the world to the Dolphins and their 2nd ranked passing offense - which now gets the Steelers and their 30th ranked passing defense.

New England Patriots -8 v. Chicago Bears

I have no faith that the Bears can score meaningful points against anyone, much less a Bill Belichick coached team.

Byes:  Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles

Big Bet:

Dallas Cowboys -6 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Detroit can score, as they are 3rd in the league in scoring offense.  But, the are alos last in the league in scoring defense, giving up an average of 32 points per game.  You read that right, 32 POINTS PER GAME!  Dallas's offense has looked pedestrian, at best, under Cooper Rush.  But, Dak Prescott is back.  Dallas makes a statement.

More points than I want to give up for a big bet, but worth it in this case, I think.  Dallas's defense has been amazing, and now the offense can be as well.

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  45-44-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($445) 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($440)

Picks of the Week

Wow - What a start to the season.  For some of the teams and players at least - and ME!!!  Now way I can keep this pace up, but it sure is good to start off with a BANG!!!  For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 v. Los Angeles Chargers

A very good home team getting points in the opening weekend?  I'll take them.  We saw how that turned out!  Ugh.  Two weeks in a row now.  Maybe it is an omen?

New York Giants -1 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

I never would have guessed this pick before the season started, but the Giants ran the ball very well last week, and Carolina couldn't stop the run.  Yes, it was the Browns who run the ball at every opportunity, but so can Saquon.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. New England Patriots

Nothing I saw from the Patriots last week makes me think they should be a favorite on the road.  If Belichick wasn't the coach, this would be my big bet.

New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Saints have owned the Buccaneers since Tom Brady moved to Tampa.  I know this means the streak will probably stop here, but I have to ride this streak as long as I can.

Cleveland Browns -6 1/2 v. New York Jets

Joe Flacco showed that he can still fling it during a blowout loss.  Let's see if he can do that two weeks in a row.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

I have a feeling that this pick could sneak up on a lot of people.  Could be a determinative game for how the season can ultimately go for both teams.  Until Miami proves me otherwise, I am picking the Ravens.

Washington Commanders pick 'em at Detroit Lions

Detroit plays tough, and if DeAndre Swift can be healthy all year, Detroit will win more games than people expect.  But, with Washington, I have to go back to their defensive line with Carson Wentz making just enough more plays than Jared Goff.

Indianapolis Colts -3 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville played the Commanders close last week, but they could not get off the field on third down, stopping their opponents on that crucial down only 30% of the time.  That doesn't bode well for a team with Jonathan Taylor.  If the Colts stay on the field, he will break one.

Los Angeles Rams -10 v. Atlanta Falcons

Already in the season and we have a double-digit spread.  The Rams will really WANT this win after being decimated by the Buffalo Bills on opening night.  I look for them to score early and often, getting both Allen Robinson and Van Jefferson involved in the passing game.  Is this Desmond Ridder watch on?  No offense to Marcus Mariota, but it should be.

San Francisco 49ers -9 v. Seattle Seahawks

Be careful not to read too much into last week's games.  The weather in Chicago was atrocious.  San Francisco probably will not look that bad again this week.  And, good win by Seattle, but neither the Seahawks or the Broncos actually looked good on Monday night.  Seahawks on a short week, I'll take San Francisco.

Houston Texans +10 at Denver Broncos

Now, here is where I fall into the trap.  Denver did not look good and are on a short week.  Houston didn't look great either, but they played a tough team really tough - and didn't lose.  Makes for an easy bet when it is double digits.  I don't like this bet because Matt Ryan carved up the Texans' pass defense last week, and Russell Wilson did the same to Seattle.  I am taking Houston, but only because it is 10 points.  C'mon Lovie!

Las Vegas Raiders -5 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Raiders looked lively in their week 1 loss to the Chargers, who are an AFC champion-caliber team.  Arizona was annihilated by the Chiefs, which could happen to a bunch of teams this year.  I still think even at full strength the Raiders are better - Davante Adams means that much.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 at Dallas Cowboys

Nobody knows what we are getting from Cooper Rush, but we do know what we are getting from the rest of the Dallas team.  Cincinnati wins going away, despite giving up 4 sacks.

Chicago Bears +10 at Green Bay Packers

Giving up ten points against a division rival, when you have nobody that is able to catch the ball?  A frustrated Aaron Rodgers tour begins.

Buffalo Bills -10 v. Tennessee Titans

Coming off a bad loss to the New York Giants, instead of bouncing back, I think we may be seeing the limitations of this team.  Perhaps Malik Willis starts before Desmond Ridder?

Minnesota Vikings +2 1/2 at Philadephia Eagles

In perhaps the closest game of the weekend, I am just taking points.  No disrespect to the Eagles, but it was that close for me.

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. New England Patriots

Getting points at home against a very pedestrian team.  Can you believe this, two weeks in a row betting big on Mitchell Trubisky?

Last Week's Record:  12-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  12-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $910 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  $910

Conference Championship Roundtable

Welcome to our Roundtable Discussion for Conference Championship Weekend in the NFL. Once again all three of us are here today; that is Hopps, Sinickal and myself.

For starters we have the most important game of the new decade, Packers versus the Bears. (Ok - so the decade just started - sue me).

Sinickal: Green Bay is statistically superior, but I going to pick them for another reason; namely that I don't want to have to root for my money and my team with Jay Cutler steering the ship. I am really hoping that he is run over by a bus, and Peyton Manning is given the chance to lead this team since he was so betrayed by Jim Caldwell needing to use all of his timeouts.

Pepster: I share your concern with Cutler, for sure, Sinickal, but everybody in the world is aware that Jim Caldwell is not a very good coach and that he butchered that playoff game. This is not breaking news. You act like you invited this story.

Sinickal: Well, I did have it up on the blog before that day's games were finished.

Pepster: That part is true. Hopps, your thoughts?

Hopps: Bears. They have a better defense.

Pepster: The Bears are known for their defense, but not sure they have the best defense in this game. The Pacers gave up the second fewest points in the league, while the Bears were sixth. Should be pretty tight.

Hopps: Well then, a Bears victory could secure Lovie in charge FOREVER!!!

Pepster: Now that is something to root for. Nothing like a veiled race card reference (foreshadowing) on our blog. I am not sure I want Lovie forever, but he has done pretty well when he has good assistants. Although I want to pick the Bears, I have to select the Packers. First, I cannot put too much faith in Cutler. Second, I had the Packers as one of my pre-season Super Bowl picks (with the Ravens). Third, the games against the Packers have been really close this season, so one turnover could spell the difference, and guess which team has Cutler? I say Packers, but I think the Bears will cover. On to the AFC.

Hopps: Steelers at home. The Jets spent what they had last week at the Pats.

Sinickal: Of course, the New Englander thinks that every team must be spent because they beat the vaunted New England Patriots. Didn't Pittsburgh just win a slugfest over the Ravens?

Hopps: I am being serious this is not a homer reason. The Jets are going to have a letdown.

Pepster: Hopps - who are your favorite Patriots anyway?

Hopps: The same ones that everyone else likes - in order: 1. Brady; 2. Welker; 3. Woodhead; 4. Mankins and 5. Edelman.

Pepster and Sinickal: Those are all the WHITE players! I mean, we will give you Brady, but ...

Sinickal: What about Mayo?

Pepster: What about Wilfork?

Sinickal and Pepster: Typical New England fan.

Pepster: That reminds me of this conversation I had earlier this year while watching the Bears/Ravens game. A Patriots clown starts talking about how much better Tedy Bruschi was than Ray Lewis. He even said that Bruschi is better today than Lewis is. I casually (i.e. with bewilderment) told him that Bruschi wasn't even the best linebacker in Patriots history, much less NFL history (like Lewis is). That linebacker is Andre Tippett, for you New England fans that started watching in the mid-to-late 90's. He keeps carrying on and on until I finally tell him he can have his team of all-time Patriots but I will still take the best player from each position in NFL history and then lets see who wins. That actually got him to shut up. Anyway, Sinickal, your thoughts on the game?

Sinickal: Pittsburgh is better in every statistical category than the Jets, and the Jets just played their Super Bowl. What are we to expect here? Quite honestly, the Jets shouldn't be here at all save Jim Caldwell being the single worst faux football coach on the planet. Oh, and Mike Tomlin is a quote a minute and we need more of that magnificent bastard.

Pepster: Again with the Caldwell. I agree on Mike Tomlin. I think he is much more quotable and fascinating than even Rex Ryan, but not as disturbed. I'll take the Steelers as well. The Jets are not beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh twice in a row, especially with Polamalu and Heath Miller playing today. And as you may recall from last week, Jason Campbell, Alex Smith, Shaun Hill and Chad Henne all had better QB ratings than Sanchez this year. That is not exactly the '83 draft of Elway, Kelly and Marino, or even Blacklege, Eason and O'Brien. That gives me a thought, somebody remind me to write a column on that '83 draft - one that doesn't focus on the QBs. It was phenomenal. Oh yeah, and if the Bears win early, guarantee a Steelers victory. 100% of the time that Lovie Smith has been in the Super Bowl, he has faced another African-American coach. 100%!

Pepster: So to sum it all up - the non-Bears fan selects the Bears, while the two Bears fans pick Green Bay. We all agree on Pittsburgh. Somehow, that sounds like us.

Enjoy watching the games everybody. Read us next week. On to my picks of the week.

My picks of the week:

Chicago Bears+3 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers has been playing brilliantly, and so far the Bears have been the only team that could contain him this year, holding him to 17 points early in the season and just 10 in the last game, a must win for the Packers to even make the playoffs. Even though I said the Packers above, I am going to say that it is a close one, no matter what.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Pittsburgh Steelers -4 v. New York Jets
I just don't have enough faith in the Dirty, Dirty.

HOPPS PROP BET OF THE WEEK
OVER/UNDER - 5 - People carted off the field today - OVER

Previous Week's Record: 2-2
Playoff Record: 4-4
Year to Date: 108-77-5
Previous Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Big Bet Year to Date: 4-11
Previous Week's Winnings (Losses): ($185)
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $65