What a week. The NFL schedule week 12 literally took an entire week, starting with the Houston Texans defeat of the Detroit Lions on the traditional Thanksgiving Thursday game, and ending with a thrice re-scheduled and finally played on Wednesday Pittsburgh Steelers win over the Baltimore Ravens, which featured Trace McSorley. And really, Colin Kaepernick can't play in this NFL? C'mon. But, despite the length of the week, it was a fantastic bounce back game for your boy, going 11-5 and nailing my big bet. So, I will take it and hopefully put together a winning-week streak.
As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid. I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions
Yes, the Green Bay Packers hammered the Bears last week, but hear me out. This was the first game Bill Lazor called the plays with Mitchell Trubisky playing quarterback, and they actually moved the ball. One horrendous interception in the end zone and one missed face mask on a Trubisky fumble, and the game ends up a lot closer. I only mention this because the Lions defense is atrocious - 25th in the league in 3rd percentage, 26th in passing defense, 28th in rushing defense, 29th in total defense, and 31st in scoring defense. Lazor is going to have the Bears moving the ball up and down the field this week, giving Bears fans hope, which Trubisky will take away 2 to 3 weeks later.
Atlanta Falcons +3 v. New Orleans Saints
This Atlanta team might be the best 4-7 team ever, and if they had some coaching and a bit more savvy and clock management on the field would be 7-4. I'll take points at home in an intradivisional game. They key is which team's strength wins out - Atlanta's passing offense, or New Orleans' tough passing defense.
Houston Texans +3 v. Indianapolis Colts
For much the same reason as above, I will take the points at home in an intradivisional game. This is a tough game to figure out as the Texans lose Will Fuller to a suspension for use of performance enhancing drugs, but they gain David Johnson back after 3 weeks on the injured reserve. All of this may not mean much against Indy's defense (4th in total defense, 6th in passing defense, 7th in rushing defense and 9th in scoring defense). But, I'll bet that you didn't realize DeShaun Watson has a 112.5 quarterback rating this year, did you? That puts him third in the NFL behind only Aaron Rodgers 115.5 and Patrick Mahomes (115.5).
New York Jets +8 v. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are a west coast team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, and the Raiders are playing without Josh Jacobs. With Jacobs the Raiders have the 8th best rushing offense in the NFL. Without him, who knows, but the Jets do have the 11th best rushing defense.
Cleveland Browns +4 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
This game is likely to be the first game completed on Sunday, as we should expect a lot - and I mean a lot - of running plays. Cleveland, behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, have the best rushing offense in the NFL whereas Tenneesse - behind Derrick Henry - is no slouch itself; second in the NFL in rushing offense. The difference is that Cleveland is 9th in rushing defense while Tennessee is 17th. Honestly, I pick the other way if this is a 2 1/2 or 3 point spread, but with 4 1/2, I'll take those points in a game in which possessions are likely to be limited due to a running clock because of the ground game.
Miami Dolphins -10 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
I am honestly torn on this one, having gone back-and-forth between Miami and Cincinnati before finally settling on Miami. Cincinnati played the New York Giants close last week, behind a subpar game from Brandon Allen (really what did we expect), but, it was the Giants and Colt McCoy made an appearance. So basically, they are not good. I am making this pick based upon Ryan Fitzpatrick starting over Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa, which still really hasn't been officially announced yet, but Fitzpatrick would love to feast on the 22nd ranked pass defense in Cincinnati.
Jacksonville Jaguars +10 at Minnesota Vikings
Mike Glennon is starting for Jacksonville, but he did last week and the Jaguars only lost to Cleveland by 2. Like Cleveland, Minnesota relies heavily upon its rushing game (6th in rushing offense; 17th in passing offense). Plus, Minnesota has not looked good lately.
Los Angeles Rams -3 at Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are coming off two straight losses on the road (to the Seahawks and Patriots), and will have to fight to end that streak at home against the Rams and their stout defense (4th in 3rd down % and rushing defense, 3rd in passing defense and scoring defense, and 2nd in total defense). Kenyan Drake has not been playing well since his return from injury making me wonder when the Cardinals will go back to Chase Edmonds.
Seattle Seahawks -11 v. New York Giants
Colt McCoy. I don't think that even Seattle's short week can make up for the fact that Colt McCoy is playing.
Green Bay Packers -8 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Aaron Rodgers, as mentioned before, has the best QB rating in the NFL this year. And although the Giants have a pretty good defense, they are vulnerable against the pass (19th in the NFL). And, Philadelphia is floundering despite being only 1/2 game out of first place in the NFC East. Plus, Philadelphis is on a short week.
New England Patriots +2 at Los Angeles Chargers
The Patriots have won 3 of their last 4 games, their only loss being by 1 touchdown at Houston. New England is 5th in rushing offense and the Chargers are 18th in rushing defense. Los Angeles is 2nd in passing offense, so we could see some explosive plays, but New England is playing about as good as this version of the Patriots can.
Denver Broncos +13 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
So, before anybody gets carried away, the Chiefs are going to win this game, but 2 TDs is just too much. But, Kansas City has only won its last 3 games by a combined total of 9 points, and that was to Carolina, Las Vegas, and Tampa Bay. All good teams, certainly, but not the upper echelon of the league. So, with some quarterbacks back this week for the Broncos, and being an intra-divisional game, I expect this one to be close-ish. Kansas City by 10 wouldn't shock me.
Washington Football Team +7 at Pittsburgh Steelers
An incredibly short week for the Steelers, having played on Wednesday afternoon and now having this game moved from Sunday to Monday afternoon at 5:00. At least they were home on Wednesday, and on this Monday. The game against the Ravens was a tough, physical battle, as this one is likely to be as well. The Steelers will be tested by Washington's defense, ranked 7th in scoring, 6th in total defense and 2nd in passing defense. The Steelers very well may pull out a victory, but 7 seems high under the circumstances.
Buffalo Bills +1 at San Francisco 49ers
I cannot figure out these San Francisco 49ers, and if you say you have, you are a liar. So, to be fair, I have no idea what is going to happen in the traditional Monday Night game. But San Francisco's passing defense is 4th in the NFL (5th in total defense), and Buffalo's passing offense is 7th in the NFL (21st in rushing), so it'll be interesting if the 49ers can contain Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and company. I think not, for no real particular reason.
Dallas Cowboys No Line at Baltimore Ravens
No line pending the Covid-19 situation surrounding Lamar Jackson. Mark Ingram II, Calais Campbell and others came off the Covid-19 list today. The announcement on Jackson is expected to be made Monday. I will make a pick once the line is set.
Bye Week - Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Big Bet
Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions
Yes, the Green Bay Packers hammered the Bears last week, but hear me out. This was the first game Bill Lazor called the plays with Mitchell Trubisky playing quarterback, and they actually moved the ball. One horrendous interception in the end zone and one missed face mask on a Trubisky fumble, and the game ends up a lot closer. I only mention this because the Lions defense is atrocious - 25th in the league in 3rd percentage, 26th in passing defense, 28th in rushing defense, 29th in total defense, and 31st in scoring defense. Lazor is going to have the Bears moving the ball up and down the field this week, giving Bears fans hope, which Trubisky will take away 2 to 3 weeks later.
Honestly, I hate making my Big Bet a Chicago Bears game, but I honestly feel like I saw something with the playcalling last week. Not something like go far in the playoffs, but something that should be able to move the ball well against Detroit, with Allen Robinson getting like 10 catches, 143 yards type of movement. And, I like some of the other lines, but I don't love them. Atlanta and Green Bay I considered here, with Atlanta getting points at home a serious consideration, but I will stick with my original thought here.
Last Week's Record: 11-5
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0Year-to-Date Record: 95-78-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $700
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1460
