Picks of the Week

 

A decent bounce-back week last week.  Not great, but finished in the positive, so I will take it!  Games start early this weekend because the Jaguars have a home game in London.  I imagine there are a lot of Londoners that have no idea why Blake Bortles isn't in the Hall of Fame, much less not starting!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers + 2 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Home team on a short week.  This was a disaster.

Jacksonville Jaguars -2 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons (London)

Home game for Jacksonville.  Atlanta's best feature is their running game, 10th in the NFL.  Jacksonville stops the run (7th in the NFL).

Chicago Bears +3 v. Denver Broncos

Imagine giving up 70 points one week and being favored on the road the next week.  By the way Dolphins fans, a field goal last week would not have broken the NFL single-game points record.  I know they kept saying 72 was the recod on television, but the Bears beat the Washington Racists 73-0 in the 1940 NFL championship game, behind the immortal Sid Luckman.

Houston Texans +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Houston has the 6th best passing offense in the NFL.  Pittsburgh is 22nd in pass defense.  T.J. Watt may get a couple of sacks, but the back-end of this defense will likely give up over 300+ yards to C.J. Stroud, Tank Dell and company.

Los Angeles Rams +1 v. Indianapolis Colts

I hate that Indianapolis is in the Eastern time zone, because the betting rules say take the Eastern time zone team in this slot.  Also the Rams played Monday night.  Everything about this matchup screams Indianapolis.  But seriously, how are the Colts 2-1?  The have the 20th ranked offense and the 22nd ranked defense.  Los Angeles meanwhile is 1-2 with the 9th best offensive team and the 7th best defensive team.

Minnesota Vikings -4 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Two 0-3 teams, and not the worst game on the board. See Denver v. Chicago.

New Orleans Saints -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay played Monday night, so this is a short week for them.  They also have the 27th ranked offense and 23rd ranked defense.  And those stats come from having played the Bears.

Washington Commanders +9 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are better.  Wayyyy better.  But this is a big number and Pilly is playing on a short week.  I'll take the points.

Buffalo Bills -3 v. Miami Dolphins

Everybody is all over the Dolphins because of their 70-spot last week againt Denver, but you cannot carry-over points.  Yes the Dolphins are electric offensively, 1st in total offense, scoring offense, passing offense, and rushing offense, but those stats are incredibly skewed due to the Denver game.  Buffal is 2nd in total defense, 2nd in scoring defense, and 3rd in passing defense.  Miami's offense and Buffalo's defense are both sturdy.  But, Miami's defense is 20th in scoring, 20th in passing, 24th in rushing and 24th in total defense, whereas Buffalo's offense is 2nd in scoring, 7th in rushing and 8th in total offense.  Buffalo's offense is better than Miami's defense, so I will take the Bills.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Yes, Cincinnati is an away team on a short week, however it looked as if they found their offensive mojo in the second half on Monday night.  If that carries over, then we have the Bengals of the last couple of years and they annihilate Tennessee.

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens,

The Browns outrank the Ravens in every offensive category (total, scoring, rushing, and passing.)  Plus, their defense is E-LITE:  2nd in rushing defense, 1st in third down conversion percentage, 1st in passing defense, 1st in total defense and 1st in scoring defense.  Give me the Browns.

Los Angeles Chargers -6 v. Las Vegas Raiders

We do not know who will start at quarterback for the Raiders.  We do know it won't be Jimmy Garoppolo (consussion protocol).  It will be Brian Hoyer or Aiden McConnell.  I'll take the Chargers and their second ranked offense.

 

Dallas Cowboys -6 v. New England Patriots

Bounce back game.

Arizona Cardinals +14 at San Francisco 49ers 

San Francisco may still win easily, but this is a lot of points in a divisional game.

Kansas City Chiefs -8 1/2 at New York Jets

Kansas City is 1-0 in ass-whippings in game in which Taylor Swift attends.

Seattle Seahawks -2 at New York Giants

Do we really have to have two prime time New Jersey games this weekend?  Seattle's defense is practically worthless (30th total, 31st passing, 29th scoring), but the Giants offense is equally worhtless, (24th rushing, 28th passing, 28th total, 31st scoring).  Put it this way, the Bears average more points than the Giants do.

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Yes, Cincinnati is an away team on a short week, however it looked as if they found their offensive mojo in the second half on Monday night.  If that carries over, then we have the Bengals of the last couple of years and they annihilate Tennessee.

I usually don't like selecting road teams for my "Big Bet", much less road teams giving points, but nothing about this Tennessee team excites me, and I really think Cincinnati started to clikc in the second half last week.

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  25-20-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $280

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $435