Happy New Year from South Ponte Vedra, Florida. A little vacay, so probably not much analysis today - well, we will see when we get into it. At the very least a bit rushed because games are today, which is awful for those in the playoff hunt, as it gives teams, like Miami and Denver, the knowledge of what they have to do given that Cincinnati plays first. All of these games should be tomorrow. But, oh well, I don't run things. A bit of a so-so week as I finished with a winning record, but lost the big bet, so finished a bit in the negative. And this week is a super crapshoot as some teams rest all of their best players, some will only play them a little bit, and most we will have no idea until it happens.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Cleveland Browns +20 at Baltimore Ravens
I cannot, in good conscience, but on a 20-point favorite. Even if Bailey Zappe is starting for the other team.
Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is on a 3-game losing streak, and Cincinnati is in a must-win game. Plus, if Baltimore wins the early game against Cleveland, then Pittsburgh will have absolutely nothing for which to play.
Chicago Bears +10 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Green Bay wins this, but I feel like they will be tentative not wanting ot invite injury into their playoff team. Chicago only incentive is that a lot of players and coaches are playing and coaching for their jobs.
Philadelphia Eagles -2 1/2 v. New York Giants
Most starters won't be playing for Philadelphia, but Kenny Pickett and Kenneth Gainwell have both proven themselves to be legitimate NFL players.
Carolina Panthers +7 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Other than last week's debacle, Carolina has been playing everybody close. Atlanta technically has the potential of the playoffs, except that if Tampa Bay jumps out to an early lead against the Saints, the deflation-factor could really come into play.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -14 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are a M*A*S*H unit, and Tampa is on fire. They will be a tough out for the Detroits, Minnesotas and Philadelphias of the NFC. And, can somebody please tell me how Baker Mayfield was not selected to the Pro Bowl? All due respect to Jayden Daniels.
Washington Commanders -6 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
I hate selecting an intradivsional road favorite, but last week's decimation at the hands of the Eagles most likely broke the Cowboys.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
Much like the Cowboys, the Colts suffered a horrible loss last week to the Giants, just ending their season. Not much to play for at all. I can't even believe the Colts are starting Joe Flacco.
Houston Texans +2 at Tennessee Titans
Houston is actually getting points in this, which tells me that the bettors think they may not play their starters very long. I hope that isn't true.
Buffalo Bills -3 1/2 at New England Patriots
Buffalo has the 2-seed locked up, but hoping the starters jump to an early lead in the first half just because the team is so mad that they allowed New England to play them so close two weeks ago.
Kansas City Chiefs +10 1/2 at Denver Broncos
Broncos have to win to make the playoffs (they can also make it with both Cincinnati and Miami losses, and Cincinnati plays Saturday, so they will know), and Kansas City will not be playing its starters, but 10 1/2 points? I reserve the right to change this bet if Cincinnati loses. Otherwise, I absolutely hate this line.
San Francisco 49ers +4 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
An absolute crapshoot of a pick based solely on Joshua Dobbs' athleticism.
Miami Dolphins +1 at New York Jets
Bad line here, because Aaron Rodgers would do something like win a game to push the Jets down in the draft order, only to end up leaving the team and/or retiring. This line could change toward the Jets if Cincinnati wins on Saturday, and I reserve the right to change my pick if that occurrs.
Seattle Seahawks -6 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
In most circumstances, the Rams are the picks in this game, except that Seattle needs this game, and the Rams plan to rest a lot of its players.
Los Angeles Chargers -4 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders
Jim Harbaugh never allows rest.
Minnesota Vikings +3 at Detroit Lions
This whole year has been "Detroit this, Detroit that." Minnesota has the opportunity to yank the #1 overall seed away from Detroit. I don't know that they do that, but I think this game will be incredibly close, so I'll take the points. The difference will be Minnesota's defense, 4th in third-down percentage, 4th in scoring defense, and 2nd against the rush.
Big Bets:
Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is on a 3-game losing streak, and Cincinnati is in a must-win game. Plus, if Baltimore wins the early game against Cleveland, then Pittsburgh will have absolutely nothing for which to play.
I hate picking a road team for the big bet, much less in an intra-divisional game. But Cincinnati has a lot for which to play, and Burrow puts an exclamation point on what would ordinarily be an MVP season.
Record
Last Week's Record: 9-7
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 127-119-10
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 9-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($35)
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($360)
