Happy Thanksgiving. One of the things that I am thankful for is you loyal (and not so loyal) readers. Most of you that read regularly I know, but every once in a while someone will come up to me to mention that they read this column every week (or close to every week), and I am humbled that you are interested in my musings. I do this not just to keep track of my picks, but as a way to practice my (non-work related) writings, and to add a little humor to my own life. The fact that others take time out to enjoy (which may be a little strong) is a bonus. Thank you.
A small step backward last week, but at least I got the big bet correct. Back to lots of football this week with no teams on a bye week, so 16 total games, starting with 3 today. Enjoy your turkey, spaghetti, or whatever food you traditionally eat, and watch some NFL football. Just don't overdo it today, as there are lots more this weekend!
My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else, a reminder. Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Detroit Lions +2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
Say it with me please - don't take intradivisional, road favorites, especially on a short week. Plus, Detroit has won three games in a row plus their last four Thanksgiving Day games. Minnesota has both the fifth ranked offense and defense, and has won six in a row since their loss to ... you guessed it ... Detroit.
Los Angeles Chargers -1 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
Going into this writing, my plan was to simply follow all of my standard betting rules, and a road favorite on a short week was not in the cards, but Dallas has only scored 16 points (with only one touchdown) since the Ezekial Elliott suspension, and the Chargers have won four of their last six.
Washington Racists -7 v. New York Giants
Again, a short week, and even with New York's victory last week, I am still completely unimpressed with the Giants this year. Home team big.
Chicago Bears +13 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I do not expect the Bears to win this game, but Chicago does have the fifth best rushing game in the NFL, and should be able to keep the ball some and limit Philadelphia's possessions. Philadelphia's defense is first against the run, but a lot of that can be attributed to the fact that Philly has led in most of the games forcing their opponents to pass the ball.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 at Atlanta Falcons
The Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Buccaneers are certainly not afraid to take chances with the ball, and will likely score enough points against Atlanta's defense to cover the spread. If Devonta Freeman was available, it would enable Atlanta to use a more balanced offense to work up the score on the 29th ranked defense in Tampa, but he likely isn't playing. So, Atlanta by 7.
Cincinnati Bengals -8 v. Cleveland Browns
At home, against Cleveland.
Tennessee Titans -3 at Indianapolis Colts
If the Titans want to make the playoffs, they have to beat the teams they should beat, that includes the Colts, who are 25th offensively in points scored, and last defensively in points allowed.
Buffalo Bills +10 at Kansas City Chiefs
Tyrod Taylor is back, and Kansas City couldn't even score 10 points against the Giants, much less 10 points MORE. The Chiefs are reeling offensively and need to right the ship quickly, and Buffalo looks to bounce back from the short-lived Nathan Peterman experience.
Miami Dolphins +16 1/2 at New England Patriots
New England wins this game easily, but the Dolphins' individual's pride as NFL players show through as they get the back-door cover by scoring a touchdown in the last two minutes to lost by 14.
Carolina Panthers -5 at New York Jets
Carolina has won 3 in a row since an inexplicable loss to the Chicago Bears, and Cam Newton has played more like Cam Newton since the Kelvin Benjamin trade has forced the Panthers to be more creative offensively. The Panthers' second ranked defense should feast on the 25th ranked Jets offense - although surprisingly Josh McCown's QBR is over 10 points higher than Newton's.
San Francisco 49ers +6 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
This pick at first glance seems ridiculous. However, despite being 1-9, has played all but about 3 games extremely close, and Seattle is without basically their entire defensive backfield. Add to that San Francisco's propensity to blitz the quarterback against Seattle's struggling offensive line, and we might have the makings of an upset. I am not going that far as to predict a win for San Francisco, but they do keep it close.
New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are 20th against the rush on defense, and New Orleans is second in rushing, at 144 yards per game. New Orleans is also second in passing yards per game, 1st in total yards, and 3rd in points. Too much firepower for the Rams defense.
Jacksonville Jaguars -5 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Jacksonville has won 4 in a row and 5 of its last 6. Arizona has Blaine Gabbert starting.
Oakland Raiders -5 v. Denver Broncos
I do not like this game. I do not like this line. I am picking Oakland because they are at home, they were embarrassed last week by New England, and because Denver is in even worse shape than Denver.
Pittsburgh Steelers -14 v. Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh's offense is clicking with Le'veon Bell leading the NFL in rushing and Antonio Brown leading the NFL in receiving yards. The Packers, on the other hand, are led by a quarterback with a 63 QBR. I wonder if Green Bay - which at the time of Aaron Rodgers' injury was in playoff contention - could have used a Super Bowl caliber quarterback that was (and is) available for signing?
Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Houston Texans
Baltimore at 5-5 is in second place in the AFC North, whereas the Houston Texans have Tom Savage starting.
Big Bet
Cincinnati Bengals -8 v. Cleveland Browns
The Hue Jackson drama has reached its apex, as it appears he could be fired as early as after this game. I really wanted to take the home underdog in the Lions, but I am afraid of a short week big bet. Others that I considered include the Jacksonville Jaguars (-5 1/2 at Arizona); Carolina Panthers (-5 at New York Jets); and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10 at Atlanta), but all three were on the road.
Last Week's Record: 6-7-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 77-76-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($20)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($605)
The Hue Jackson drama has reached its apex, as it appears he could be fired as early as after this game. I really wanted to take the home underdog in the Lions, but I am afraid of a short week big bet. Others that I considered include the Jacksonville Jaguars (-5 1/2 at Arizona); Carolina Panthers (-5 at New York Jets); and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10 at Atlanta), but all three were on the road.
Last Week's Record: 6-7-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 77-76-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($20)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($605)
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