Picks of the Week

WOW - what an amazing week.  And a couple of plays from an even BETTER record.  Even with losing the big bet (thanks for nothing Minnesota,) I still made enough to put myself in the black for the year.  Of course, since I mentioned it that means that I am due for big losses this week.  Not hoping for that, but we shall see.  Picks going up early because of Christmas and family, so I hope no major injuries or benching hurt my selections.

Also, I am still waiting for the Space Force Academy to start playing college football (IYKYK!)  Not sure when that will happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 at New York Jets

This is going against the betting rules, but San Francisco's obvious win as a road team on a short week last week gives me some optimism to take the Jaguars, who have been looking really good lately, as opposed to Zach Wilson.

Chicago Bears +8 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Not because the Bears are so good, but because the Bears have been playing teams relatively close.  They might give up 6 sacks, but boy is it going to be fun watching defenses try to catch up to scrambling Justin Fields and Josh Allen.

New Orleans Saints +3 at Cleveland Browns

Primarily because of the defense (8th total and 7th in passing), and because even while gaining decent yards, Nick Chubb has not looked exactly like Nick Chubb recently.

Atlanta Falcons +7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have scored 3, 16, and 10 points in their last 3 games, and suddenly are threatened by the likes of the the surging Chargers for the playoffs, even at 9-5.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at New England Patriots

I don't like road favorites, but Cincinnati is just better.  Although New England's defense is tough (6th overall/9th passing/9th rushing), Cincinnati's defense is 10th overall, so Joe Burrow taking over in the 4th quarter for the win is a likely scenario.

New York Giants +4 at Minnesota Vikings

Even when the Noon Nightmare is putting up huge numbers, Minnesota has looked like they are a team in decline.    And although the Giants offense is pedestria, the Vikings defense is even worse (last in the NFL overall and 28th in scoring defense.)

Detroit Lions -2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Detroit is going to end up in the playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs -10 v. Seattle Seahawks

I hate giving up double digits, but Seattle has fallen off a cliff.  They have won 1 of their last 5, but that was against the horrible Rams, and it was close.  Kenneth Walker is back, which helps, but as good of a story as Geno has been for most of the season, Seattle is cooked.  And, teams are 1-12 in weeks after they have played the San Francisco 49ers.  That is straight up and not against the spread, but it is indicative of just how much the 49ers beat up teams.

Houston Texans + 3 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Houston is coming off two consecutive covers - at Dallas and against the Chiefs.  Granted, those spreads were huge, but for large parts of those games Houston was the better team.  Given the way they have been playing, the better cover against the Titans.  The last ranked rush defense is worrisome against Derrick Henry, but eventhen, Tennessee is only 15th in rushing. 

San Francisco 49ers -7 v. Washington Commanders

The Commanders have been a feel good story this year, especially with the surprise that is Taylor Heinicke, howver, some of that shine is coming off and the Commanders are contemplating turning to Carson Wentz.  San Francisco might just be hitting their stride, and very well could be the favorites to win the Super Bowl right now.

Philadelphia Eagles +5 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

No doubt this line has a lot to do with the fact that Jalen Hurts is not playing, but never underestimate the power of the Minshew.  He is not going to be scared of any defense, even Dallas's (15th total, T7th scoring, 3rd passing), because he faces his own defense in practice every day (2nd total defense, 6th in scoring defense, 1st in passing defense.)  He doesn't have the mobility of Jalen Hurts, but he can fling it - so A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith could have a big day.  This spread should be 2 1/2.

Las Vegas Raiders +2 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Both teams are hot with the Raiders winning 4 out of their last 5 and the Steelers winning 3 of their last 4.  There is hope that the Steelers can slow down Josh Jacobs, as they are 7th against the rush.  But, in a game that should be close I am taking the points.

Miami Dolphins -4 v. Green Bay Packers

Both teams looked good last week, Mimai in a loss to Buffalo and Green Bay in its Monday night win over the Rams.  Buffalo is much tougher than the Rams, and they are on a short week.  So, home team against the team on a short week.

Denver Broncos -2 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are on a short week, and are not very good.  Baker Mayfield struggled last week, and Denver's defense is better than Green Bay's (5th overall, 5th passing defense, 3rd scoring defense, 2nd third down percentage).  Denver wins.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona is in a free fall, having lost 4 in a row after beating a bad Rams team.  Tampa Bay will survive the "challenge" from the other NFC South teams for the automatic playoff spot.  Plus, Colt McCoy.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

I said it last week, and I'll say it again - the Chargers just look different when they line up Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.  That also makes Austin Ekeler that much more dangerous.

Big Bet:

Atlanta Falcons +7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have scored 3, 16, and 10 points in their last 3 games, and suddenly are threatened by the likes of the the surging Chargers for the playoffs, even at 9-5.

Baltimore definitely misses Lamar Jackson and Atlanta plays almost all of its games close (L3, L3, L6, W3, L10, L3, W3) in its last 7.  I don't expect any difference in this game.

Last Week's Record:  10-5-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  114-101-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-6-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $285

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $130

Picks of the Week

I still don't know if that Space Force team is any good (way too inside of a joke.)  Anyway, albeit small, another winning week.  I will keep taking wins over losses.  No more byes means 16 games from here through the end of the regular season.  Hope that is a good thing.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Seattle Seahawks +3 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Yes, San Francisco is waaaaay better, and yes Seattle has fallen off a cliff.  But man, I didn't realize the cliff was THAT high.  Well, home team on a short week isn't a 100% lock (although hopefully the rule occurs a lot more this week - foreshadowing.

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Minnesota took it on the chin last week, but a loss to Detroit is not the laugher that it ordinarily was.  Indianapolis' defense is pretty stout (5th overall), but they give up points (21st).  Minnesota is looking to clinch the division, and is at home on this Saturday game.  Interesting note, for teams that have Jonathan Taylor and Dalvin Cook, they are horrible at rushing the ball (Colts - 26th/Vikings - 27th.)

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

I do not like this line at all.  But, the rules are there for a reason, take the home team on a short week.  Although not impressive Tyler Huntley has been more than serviceable, and even beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh last week - with the Steelers playing much tougher since TJ Watt has returned.  Nevertheless, and despite the San Francisco win, or perhaps because of it, I will stay with the home team and just not like the pick.

Buffalo Bills -7 v. Miami Dolphins

Yes Miami beat the Bills last time they played, but did you watch the game?  The Bills beat the pants off of Miami, they just didn't win.  Plus, being a Saturday night game, another short week/home team bet.  I would have liked this spread to have been about 4 1/2 or 5 though.

Chicago Bears +9 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Only because the Bears should be rested after a bye week.

New Orleans Saints -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

You cannot get much worse that Atlanta's passing offense (31st in passing; 28th overall), but then you insert a rookie quarterback.  Good luck Desmond Ridder.

Jacksonville Jaguars +4 v. Dallas Cowboys

Jacksonville has been playing well of late and Trevor Lawrence (passer rating of 95.4) is starting to emerge as the franchise quarterback that the Jaguars thought they were drafting.  Dallas may still win this, but it should be close.

Detroit Lions + 1/2 at New York Jets

Zach Wilson!!!  Yes the Jets defense might be good enough to slow down the Lions, but I do not think the Jets offense is good enough to score - well, at least not score enough (Insert generic Zach Wilson's mom's friend joke here!)

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

I honestly don't know what to do here.  The Steelers defense have been playing amazing the last 3 weeks, giving up 16, 16 and 17 points, but Sam Darnold has also been playing well.  Kenny Pickett is doubtful, but does that make Pittsburgh better, or worse?  In a tough betting situation, I take the points.

Houston Texans + 14 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs, even in winning, have looked a bit sluggish.  The chance to clinch the division notwithstanding, I am not sure what this game with Houston really means to them.  I am not saying Houston will win, but more than two touchdowns is a lot of points when betting.

Las Vegas Raiders -1 v. New England Patriots

Las Vegas has won 3 of the last 4, and only lost by one in last week's loss to the Rams.  New England is playing on a short week, having beaten Arizona on Monday night.

Denver Broncos -1 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals are on a short week, and it looks like a Brett Rypien-Colt McCoy matchup to miss.  Whatever the under is - TAKE IT!  Even if it is 12.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 v. Tennessee Titans

This team is SOOOOO much different - and better - with Mike Williams on the field, not to mention Mike Williams and Keenan Allen!

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I am surprised that the Florida Gator fans in central/southwest Florida are not clamoring for Kyle Trask yet.  Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are both questionable, but with J'Marr Chase playing, if only one of them plays, Tampa could be in for a loooooong day.

New York Giants +4 1/2 at Washington Commanders

I fully expect the Commanders to win this game and eventually make the playoffs.  However, these teams did just play to a 20-20 tie two weeks ago.  With the Giants getting routed last week by Philly, and the Commanders coming off their bye, I expect this not to be a tie, but a 3-point win for Washington.

Los Angeles Rams +7 at Green Bay Packers

I am not saying that Baker Mayfield is the end-all/be-all for the Rams.  But, he is more exciting than John Wolford, and Baker has a full week of practice.  Plus, there is no way that this line should be a full touchdown.  That is the ridiculous part - even if Green Bay wins.

Big Bet:

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Minnesota took it on the chin last week, but a loss to Detroit is not the laugher that it ordinarily was.  Indianapolis' defense is pretty stout (5th overall), but they give up points (21st).  Minnesota is looking to clinch the division, and is at home on this Saturday game.  Interesting note, for teams that have Jonathan Taylor and Dalvin Cook, they are horrible at rushing the ball (Colts - 26th/Vikings - 27th.)

I am getting the big bet out-of-the-way early.  This is my big bet because Minnesota is likely angry, they can clinch the division, and the "Noon Nightmare" will have a huge game.

Last Week's Record:  8-5

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  104-96-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-5-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $85

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($155)

Picks of the Week

My head is still spinning from the tumultuous Space Force - Coast Guard college game last night.  If you don't know - ask me about it.  Hope I can get that conversation out of my head and concentrate on today's game to keep up my winning streak, as last week was very good!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Los Angeles Rams + 6 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Baker Mayfield comeback notwithstanding, home team on a short week wins again.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh has won 3 of its last 4, and Baltimore is without Lamar Jackson.  Pittsburgh has been playing a lot better since T.J. Watt returned.

Minnesota Vikings +2 1/2 at Detroit Lions

This line is utterly ridiculous, and it seems way too obvious to pick the Vikings.  Not quite sure why I am doing it then, but, I have to.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville is better offensively than the Titans (11th to 29th), and even in rushing (10th to 15th), and exactly the same defensively (both T25th overall).  Sounds like I will take the points in what should be a close game.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 at New York Giants

The third overall offense and the 2nd overall defense versus the Giants, who are in the bottom third of each.  Philly rolls.

New York Jets +10 at Buffalo Bills

Double digits is a big spread against a team that has recently made a dramatic upgrade at quarterback in Mike White, and which beat the Bills just over a mvonth ago.

Cincinnati Bengals -5 v. Cleveland Browns

DeShaun Watson looked pedestrian against the Texans last week.  Another week of practice should help, but playing the Bengals will not.  Joe Burrow leads a Cincinnati team that is 4th in passing to a bunch of scores.

Houston Texans +17 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

I really want to take the Cowboys here just to say I did, but if I lost because Houston covers, I would be kicking myself.  If I lose this bet as it stands, I still stand by my bet.

Kansas City Chiefs -8 1/2 at Denver Broncos

The Chiefs lead the NFL in scoring, whereas Denver doesn't score.  This might be a bit too many points for a divisional rival, though, so I don't feel safe with this one.

San Francisco 49ers -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Brock Purdy looked pretty good last week, but more importantly, Tampa Bay played Monday night.

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

I bet Carolina wishes they had a quarterback as good as Geno Smith.  Hell, I bet they wish they had a quarterback as good as Baker Mayfield.

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

I wonder how the travel of the last two weeks affects the Dolphins (they played at San Francisco last week).  They are still better than the Chargers and their 27th ranked defense, so the Dolphins' 4th ranked total offense should move the ball and score.

New England Patriots -1 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

I honestly cannot believe I am giving up points here, but the Patriots are on a two-game losing streak, and who thinks Belichick loses three in a row?  Also, the Patriots defense is solid (7th in total defense, T7th in scoring defense), whereas Arizona is next-to-last in giving up points.

Byes:  Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints, Washington Commanders

Big Bet:

Minnesota Vikings +2 1/2 at Detroit Lions

This line is utterly ridiculous, and it seems way too obvious to pick the Vikings.  Not quite sure why I am doing it then, but, I have to.

This pick literally pains me, as I have been a huge proponent of betting on the Lions, but, in this case they are giving up points.  In the 1:p.m. game slot, the Noon Nightmare strikes again.

Last Week's Record:  9-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  96-91-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-4-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $390

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($240)

Picks of the Week

 

Alright, stop me if you have heard this before... another .500 week.  And, another small winning week.  I would, of course, love a big winning week, but anytime you finish in the black.  Hope this continues.  But, it is Packers week, with the Kentucky Wildcats playing hoops in Michigan at the same time.  Gotta keep my head on a swivel today.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Buffalo Bills -4 at New England Patriots

A rare occasion when I select the road team on a Thursday.  But, by virtue of Buffalo having played on Thanksgiving, this was not a short week for them.  

Chicago Bears +4 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Not since the year before the DeShaun Watson draft, I mean the Mitchell Trubisky draft, have I been this excited for losses (GO WILL ANDERSON!!!), but a cover I will take. Not sure of the Aaron Rodgers situation (although I know he is playing, and the Bears defense is 27th against the rush, but the Packers defense is 31st against the rush and the Bears are the number 1 rushing team in the NFL thanks to the dynamic Justin Fields.  Packers by 3.

Philadelphia  -4 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

By almost any analysis this should be a close game, except something tells me A.J. Brown might have something to prove.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars +1 at Detroit Lions

I have been on the Detroit Lions betting train all year, but Jacksonville is seriously underrated as a bet also.  Both teams have about the same level of offensive numbers overall, and the Jaguars defense is mediocre whereas the Lions defense is putrid.

Cleveland Browns -8 at Houston Texans

Do I expect DeShaun Watson to be rusty in his first game back in forever?  Yes.  Do I think 8 points is too much to give in such a game?  Also yes.  Why I am picking them?  Houston has the worst offense in the league overall, and are 30th in scoring offense.  They are also 29th in the league in overall defense, but last in rushing defense.  Nick Chubb carries this day while Watson shakes off the rust.

New York Jets +3 at Minnesota Vikings

The Jets are much, much better with Mike White behind center, and the Vikings are dead last in the NFL in passing defense.  Jets do just enough to cover against the Noon Nightmare Kirk Cousins at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers -1 at Atlanta Falcons

The Steelers have won 2 of their 3 games after the bye, and their loss was by one score to the Bengals.  More importantly, they just seem to be playing better.  Plus, I need the Falcons to lose so when they trade up to 2 with the Bears to draft whomever is left after CJ Stroud or Bryce Young goes first, that the Bears get like the 4th or 5th pick so they can still get Will Anderson.

Denver Broncos +9 at Baltimore Ravens

Don't get me wrong, the Broncos won't win this game.  But, after racing out to a big lead, the Ravens collapse in the fourth and Denver back-door covers with a late field goal to cut it to 8.

Washington Commanders -2 at New York Giants

The Giants are going backwards, having lost 2 in a row and 3 of their last 4 (the other a victory over the Texans), whereas the Commanders have won 3 in a row, and have looked like a playoff team since settling on Taylor Heinicke as the starting quarterback.  Plus, the Commanders at 8th in the NFL in rushing defense have the ability to slow down Saquon Barkley.  This is dangerous, though, in picking a road intra-divisional favorite, but I am going to do it.

San Francisco 49ers -4 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

This is THE game of the week to watch.  A dynamic offense in Miami (2nd in passing, 3rd overall, and 6th in scoring) versus THE defense in the NFL in San Francisco (1st overall, 1st in scoring, 1st in rushing, 11th in passing).  But, San Franciso's offense - which is overall 11th in the NFL - has a boost in that Christian McCaffrey is becoming more and more familiar with the scheme and the team.  San Fran here.

Seattle Seahawks -6 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Another road favorite in an intradivisional game, except the Rams are starting John Wolford.

Las Vegas Raiders -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers are banged up and Raiders have won two in a row.  I believe they can make it three.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Two quarterbacks playing at really high levels - Mahomes 105.3 rating; Burrow 101.7 rating.  And, with J'Marr Chase being back, I will take points at home.

Indianapolis Colts +10 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

With Matt Ryan back, I think the Colts can play smart enough to cover this double-digit spread - or at least I hope.  I hate giving up 10 or more points, so I will take them.

New Orleans Saints +3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In a game that I will likely not even watch, I am just taking the points.

Byes:  Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers -1 at Atlanta Falcons

The Steelers have won 2 of their 3 games after the bye, and their loss was by one score to the Bengals.  More importantly, they just seem to be playing better.  Plus, I need the Falcons to lose so when they trade up to 2 with the Bears to draft whomever is left after CJ Stroud or Bryce Young goes first, that the Bears get like the 4th or 5th pick so they can still get Will Anderson.

I hate giving up points in the Big Bet, so -1 isn't really giving up points.  But, I also hate picking road teams more for a Big Bet, so, I am picking a road team. I considered Washignton (-2 at Giants) and San Francisco (-4 1/2 v. Dolphins) here.

Last Week's Record:  8-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  87-85-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-4-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $70

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($630)

Picks of the Week

 

A winning week, but just 2 plays away from a HUGE week, as the Big Bet pushed, and the Patriots covered on a last-minute punt return.    UGH!!!  But, I will take a winning week for sure.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Detroit Lions +9 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Dallas Cowboys -10 v. New York Giants

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 v. New England

Home teams on short weeks cover just over 2/3rds of the time, and that is exactly what happened here!  A Micah Parsons unsportsmanlike conduct penalty which directly led to a Giant touchdown with 12 seconds left is the only thing that kept this from being a sweep!

New York Jets -7 v. Chicago Bears

A lack of Justin Fields, and a lack of Zach Wilson, wins this for the Jets.  And let's be straight - Justin Fields SHOULD NOT play!

Denver Broncos -1 at Carolina Panthers

In a captivating 22nd overall offense versus 32nd overall offense, I'll take the 2nd ranked defense.  Plus, Denver is in the Mountain Time Zone, not the Pacific, so the 1:00 start time doesn't worry me as much.

 

Washington Commanders -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta barely survived the bad defense that is the Chicago Bears, and Washington is much, much better in that part of the field (5th overall, 6th against the rush).  This Washington team seems rejuvenated by Taylor Heinecke and with the re-emergence of Antonio Gibson.

Houston Texans +14 at Miami Dolphins

Two touchdowns is a lot of points to give up at the start of an NFL game.  Houston with a backdoor cover, maybe?

Tennessee Titans +1 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Yes, this Bengals team is a pass-first, run-second offense (4th in the NFL, 28th in the NFL respectively).  But, at least the threat of Joe Mixon could slow down a safety every now and then.  Now, with no Joe Mixon, Joe Burrow is going to have to do it all, likely without J'Marr Chase.

Cleveland Browns +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is largely a pick on emotion.  Not my emotion, but picking on Cleveland's emotion.  This might be Jacoby Brissett's last start as DeShaun Watson is due back, and he is coming off a 324 yard, 3 touchdown game.  Brissett's audition for a team for next year goes well.

Baltimore Ravens -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars

This is just a gut bet as statistically these teams are very similar (Baltimore 14th total offense and 16th total defense; Jacksonville 8th total offense and19th total defense), except in scoring.  Baltimore scores just enough to cover - 27-20.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Arizona Cardinals

In this game of mediocrity, I will take points at home, especially with Kyler Murray returning.  Well, that was my initial thought, but then I remembered that Arizona played on Monday night, so the Chargers it is.  Stay with the rules and you cannot overthink these things.  Or can I?  Ugh!

Las Vegas Raiders +4 at Seattle Seahawks

The Raiders are riding the high of last week's overtime victory over the Broncos, and continue on an upward trajectory to the 15th pick in the draft.

New Orleans Saints +9 at San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco wins this, but on a short week it is closer than it ordinarily would be.

Los Angeles Rams +15 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Wow how the Super Bowl Champs have fallen.  15 1/2 POINTS?!!!  Seriously?  Kansas City jumps out early only to have a late letdown to win 35-24.

Philadelphia -6 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Green Bay is averaging 222.3 passing yards a game.  Philadelphia is averaging 228.1, and they have a better running game and defense.

Pittsburgh +2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Sam Ehlinger is still awaiting his first passing touchdown, and Kenny Pickett has started to play a little better the last couple of games.  Not great, but better.

Big Bet:

Washington Commanders -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta barely survived the bad defense that is the Chicago Bears, and Washington is much, much better in that part of the field (5th overall, 6th against the rush).  This Washington team seems rejuvenated by Taylor Heinecke and with the re-emergence of Antonio Gibson.

I seriously don't like any of these that much.  I considered Denver, because I think they will win, but I don't want to take a road favorite, even if only 1 point.  I thought about Tennessee as Cincinnati is without Joe Mixon, but Cincinnati beat Tennessee at Tennessee last year while giving up 1,400 sacks in the game.  So, I'll take the Commanders at home.

Last Week's Record:  7-5-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  79-77-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-4-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $150

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($700)

Picks of the Week

 

Another approximately .500 week, but capped off by a big bet loss, mostly because of a fluke ending quarter for the Bears, but that is a game that should have ended differently - the crazy lament of the gambler.  In Boston today, so all I hear is Patriots, Patriots, Patriots.  I super hope that all of this doesn't subliminally affect any AFC East picks.  Lets see ...

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Home team on a short week.  Glad the Packers lost, hate it for my picks.

Chicago Bears +3 at Atlanta Falcons

So the Bears defense has been significantly underperforming the offense this year (who would have ever thought that).  But that being said, Atlanta's offense is the 26th ranked in the league.  Both teams are great offensively on third down (7th and 8th), and horrible on third down defense (31st and 29th).  This is a recipe for a close game so I will take the points.

Indianapolis Colts +6 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I really don't like this pick, but I am trying not to overthink it.  Philadelphia is on a short week, having played a tough game on Monday night.  Indianapolis has the 4th ranked defense, so they could keep this close, even if Philadelphia wins.

 

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Pacific time zone team only traveling to the central time zone, not eastern, but they bring with them the worst total offense in the NFL and the worst rushing offense in the NFL.   Defense is still stout (4th in rushing, 4th overall), but this is much more than just a Super Bowl hangover.

Houston Texans +3 v. Washington Commanders

I also don't like this pick, but the Commanders are coming off a hugely emotional win on Monday night, and the combination of a letdown and a short week means Washington wins 21-20.

New York Jets +3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Bill Belichick blah, blah, blah, can't be outcoached in a big game, blah, blah, blah, no way the Jets can take over 1st place in the AFC East, blah, blah, blah.  New England has the 27th ranked offense, and the Jets have the 6th best total defense (9th in passing, 11th in rushing).  Jets with points, yes please!

Detroit Lions +3 at New York Giants

Are the Giants the better team?  Yes.  Are the Giants playing at home?  Also yes.  But, Detroit has the 7th best total offense, which is balanced between passing (8th) and rushing (10th).  Detroit also has the worst defens in the NFL, both total and scoring, but the Giants are only 22nd in scoring.  This means a big game for Saquon Barkley that results in a 30-28 victory.

Carolina Panthers +13 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Two touchdowns is a lot of points.  This will probably happen then, since I have been generally bullish on the double digit underdogs to little avail.  I am hoping that Baltimore welcoming back Gus Edwards keeps them just rusty enough to not cover, and Baker Mayfield is just feisty/angry enough to keep this close-ish.

Cleveland Browns +8 at Buffalo Bills

I seem to be a big fan of the underdogs today, and that train continues rolling as the Bills have two consecutive losses, and two relatively close games prior.  I'll take Nick Chubb and the points.

Denver Broncos -2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Derek Carr's emotion during last week's press conference could galvanize the team, but it is more likely that the Raiders find it difficult to score against the best scoring defense, and number 2 total defense in the NFL.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Cincinnati appears to have figured out their offense sans J'Marr Chase.  They will need Burrow to keep up his 102.6 passer rating in order to avenge their early-season loss to the Steelers.

Dallas Cowboys +1 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

This game is in the 4 p.m. time slot, which means that Kirk Cousins will probably underperform.  Seriously, the Noon Nightmare (the 1:00 eastern time slot starts at noon in Minneapolis) is a much better quarterback during the early games.  Yes, his failings ordinarily occur during prime time games, but that must mean he plays progressively worse throughout the day.

Kansas City Chiefs -5 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

A healthy Keenan Allen makes this Chargers offense immensely better, however, we don't necessarily know if Keenan Allen is going to be fully healthy yet.

San Francisco 49ers -8 at Arizona Cardinals

Colt McCoy.

Byes:  Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Big Bet:

Chicago Bears +3 at Atlanta Falcons

So the Bears defense has been significantly underperforming the offense this year (who would have ever thought that).  But that being said, Atlanta's offense is the 26th ranked in the league.  Both teams are great offensively on third down (7th and 8th), and horrible on third down defense (31st and 29th).  This is a recipe for a close game so I will take the points.

I am going to the well for a second straight week, as I think the Bears getting points are much more dangerous than when the gave points to Detroit.  My other thoughts were the Jets, but I didn't want to bet against Belichick; Denver, except they have been so erratic offensively, and the Bye against the Jaguars, but nobody would take that bet.

Last Week's Record:  7-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  72-72-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-4-1

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($235)

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($850)

Picks of the Week

 

A bad week, which although just under .500 was capped with a big bet loss, that I knew was a bad pick.  I even mentioned during the pick.  Oh well, perhaps that will count as a good sacrifice to the gambling gods which could help with this week.  Another unpopular Thursday night pick,  which became a home-team/short-week victory for me.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Carolina Panthers +2 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Home team on a short week.  Worked out, AGAIN!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle has been better this year, but it is a heckuva long way to travel from Seattle to Germany, and is it possible that Brady's game-winning drive turns the season around for the Buccaneers?  At the very lease, I feel like Brady is starting to really trust Otten.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions

I believe we have witnessed the ascension of Justin Fields!

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

I am not sure that Tennessee can score enough points. Sure, Derrick Henry is having another stellar year, but Tennessee is 26th in total defense and last in total offense.

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Believe it or not, but Cleveland has a better offense (4th) than Miami (5th), and a better defense (14th) than Miami (23rd), but Miami's team is way more explosive, and those total offense numbers are hindered by Tua being out a couple of games.  Miami covers at home.

New Orleans Saints -1 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Alvin Kamara is the difference-maker in this game, although it does look like T.J. Watt will be back.  New Orleans is just better offensively (6th v. 28th) and defensively (11th v. 29th).  I don't like that New Orleans is on a short week.

Minnesota Vikings +3 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Case Keenum is a professional quarterback, and likely could be starting somewhere, but he is no Josh Allen.

New York Giants -4 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Giants coming off a bye, and even though Dameon Pierce is having a great season, he cannot do it alone, which it seems like he is being asked to do.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

How did Patrick Mahomes throw for 446 yards last week and Kansas City only score 20 points?  That will not happen this week.

Las Vegas Raiders -4 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Jeff Saturday has an inauspicious start, bascially because of a rookie quarterback, Sam Ehlinger.

Dallas Cowboys -4 at Green Bay Packers

Green Bay continues their tumultuous fall, making the Pittsburgh Steelers question not taking Green Bay's second-round pick for Chase Claypool because they thought Chicago's would be a better pick.

Los Angeles Rams -3 v. Arizona Cardinals

And we thought this would be an important game when the season started.

San Francisco 49ers -7 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers offense has performed admirably without Keenan Allen(4th in passing), but they really need Allen against the number 1 defense in the NFL.  Plus, San Francisco gets Deebo Samuel back.

Washington Commanders +11 at Philadelphia Eagles

Double digit is way to much for an intradivisional battle.  Philadelphia wins 30-20.

Byes:  Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, New York Jets

Big Bet:

Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions

I believe we have witnessed the ascension of Justin Fields!

No, I am not reading too much into last week, as the offense was spectacular against a tough Dallas defense the prior week.  Detroit's defense is last in the NFL in total defense, scoring defense, abd 3rd down defense, 31st in rushing defense and 29th in passing defense.  Chicago is 1st in rushing in the NFL, and 9th in third-down conversions.  Fields keeps several drives alive with big third-down plays.

Last Week's Record:  6-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  65-65-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-3-1

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($335)

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($615)

Picks of the Week

 

Another .500 week, but with the Big Bet being spot-on again, I inch a little closer to the break-even point.  (Yes, I know that cursed me to lose the big bet this week.)  So, a winning record overall, and just a bit in the red for the year, it might be time for me to make my move.  Also, starting off with a Thursday win that practically everybody doubted is a good start.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Houston Texans +14 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Home team on a short week.

Miami Dolphins -4 at Chicago Bears

The Bears have some good young cornerbacks in Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon, but against Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle the problem is that they are  young.  Oh yeah, and Johnson is out.  Give me Tuanigamanuolepola for the win!

Minnesota Vikings -3 at Washington Commanders

I really hate taking two road favorites in a row, but I feel like I have to do that here.  Taylor Heinecke is a decent option at quarterback, but this teams just doesn't score enough points.  For Washington to have a chance, they are going to have to get off the field on third-down, something that they are third-best in the NFL at doing.  They just don't have enough firepower.

Carolina Panthers +7 at Cincinnati Bengals

Honestly, I think Cincinnati is angry at how they lost Monday night and might be raring to come out firing against a bad Panthers team.  However, their firepower is limited without J'Marr Chase (Higgins and Boyd are excellent, but Chase just puts so much pressure on a defense.)  Plus, it is a short week for Cincinnati.

Buffalo Bills -11 at New York Jets

This is preposterous.  An 11 point favorite on the road in an intra-divisional battle.  However, I am so old that I remember when the Jets were on eof the best passing teams in the league.  That was way back when Joe Flacco was starting and not third-string, a postition to which he was recently demoted.  Now, the Jets are 14th in passing.  The Bills, are 1st in total offense, 3rd in scoring offense, 1st in scoring defense, and 3rd in total defense.  Loooooooong day for Zach Wilson.

New England Patriots -5 v. Indianapolis Colts

These Patriots might be the worst 4-4 team of all time.  They are 21st in total offense, 19th in total defense, but would you want to go against a Belichick defense if you were a rooke quarterback, huh Sam Ehlinger?

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

All of Jacksonville's losses have been within 1 score, which means they will keep in close.  Never trust a west coast team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, as they fail to cover approximately 2/3 of the time.  Plus, Darren Waller is out.

Detroit Lions +4 v. Green Bay Packers

A home underdog in a division rivalry game always seems right.  But, especially this game as Green Bay must be downtrodden after doing ABSOLUTELY NOTHING at the trade deadline, including losing Chase Claypool to the Bears because Pittsburgh thinks Chicago's 2nd round draft pick will be higher than Green Bay's.  Perhaps not the way Green Bay is playing.

Atlanta Falcons +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

First, the Chargers (along with the Raiders) have to be the most disappointing team in the NFL.  As far as this game goes, Atlanta is 5th in rushing, and the Chargers are 27th in rushing defense.  The Falcons are 6th in scoring and Los Angeles is 31st in scoring defense.  Plus, the Chargers are a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time zone slot.  Wait, anybody know the numbers on this during "fall back" weekeng?

Seattle Seahawks +2 at Arizona Cardinals

Seattle, seriously, is the 4th-highest scoring team in the NFL.  Arizona is the 30th-ranked scoring defense team.  Plus, Kenneth Walker moving into the starting lineup has been a serious game-changer for Seattle.  This kid is a star!

Los Angeles Rams +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I honestly didn't know what to do with this game at first.  Both teams are disappointing, and are not playing up to their potential.  These are the two worst rushing offenses in the league.  Both have pretty good to great defenses.  I'll just take points.

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Double digits are always a lot, but double digit favorites have covered more than they should have already this year.  Patrick Mahomes and his #2 passing offense in the NFL is facing the 24th-ranked passing defense.  And, he has a new toy in Kadarius Toney (to go with Kelce, Smith-Schuster, Hardman, et. al.).  Derrick Henry is still a beast, but Kansas City can slow him down by taking a big lead (and they have the 3rd best rushing defense.)  Plus, a rookie quarterback is making a start after only throwing 10 passes in his starting debut last week.  Kansas City it is.

Baltimore Ravens -2 at New Orleans Saints

Do not let the 5-3 record deceive you, this Ravens team lost a few games at the very end.  They are still losses, but it means they are better than New Orleans.  Andy Dalton might throw for quite a few yards, but the Ravens should run all over the Saints.  Both teams do a good job of converting 3rd downs (9th/8th), and stopping 3rd downs (8th/6th), so whichever team wins that battle will likely win the game.  My guess is Baltimore because of Lamar's scrambling ability.

Byes:  Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet:

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Double digits are always a lot, but double digit favorites have covered more than they should have already this year.  Patrick Mahomes and his #2 passing offense in the NFL is facing the 24th-ranked passing defense.  And, he has a new toy in Kadarius Toney (to go with Kelce, Smith-Schuster, Hardman, et. al.).  Derrick Henry is still a beast, but Kansas City can slow him down by taking a big lead (and they have the 3rd best rushing defense.)  Plus, a rookie quarterback is making a start after only throwing 10 passes in his starting debut last week.  Kansas City it is.

This bet is absolutely nuts for a big bet.  No way should I take a prime time game with this big of a spread.  But seriously, Malik Willis, albeit talented, is a rookie that did not have much big game experience in college.  A Kansas City touchdown plus a key turnover on the next drive makes this a two touchdown lead very quickly.  Other games considered, Miami (except they are on the road), Jacksonville (except they are Jacksonville), Seattle (they are on the road), and New England (quarterback issues and competition with Jones v. Zappe.)  If Zappe was starting, I would have New England here.

Last Week's Record:  7-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  59-58-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-2-1

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $80

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($280)

Picks of the Week

A little bit better last week, so trying to creep out of the red.  Hopefully I can use that momentum to have a big week this week.  A good start by winning Thursday's game, and maybe, just maybe, the London early game can help too.  Let's see.  Was in Jacksonville for the Georgia - Florida game, so travelling today, so I probably won't write much analysis.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Baltimore Ravens +2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Good Thursday night win.  Shaq Barrett did the "Ray Lewis Dance" to taunt Baltimore after a sack.  He then proceeded to tear his achilles.

Jacksonville Jaguars -1 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Somewhere in London, there is a high schooler who cannot understand why Blake Bortles is not still in the league.

Chicago Bears +10 at Dallas Cowboys

Ten points is an awful lot of points in the NFL.  Even though I am sure Dallas wins this game, I will take the points.  I also know the Bears played Monday night, but this is a lot of points.

Minnesota Vikings -4 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona's defense lets them down in this one.

Miami Dolphins -4 at Detroit Lions

The third best passing team versus the 22nd ranked pass defense.  Miami will gain a lot of yards in the air.

New Orleans + 1 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Two exciting offenses, 1 mediocre defense and 1 bad defense.  The bad defense is in Las Vegas.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

Carolina's surprise win came last week.

New England Patriots -3 at New York Jets

Is anybody healthy for the Jets offense?  New England is on a short week, but the Jets just have too many injuries.

Pittsburgh Steelers +10 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I don't particularly like this bet, because Philly could ice this game early, but I don't want to bet on a double digit favorite, even if at home (see Cowboys, Dallas).

Tennessee Titans pick 'em at Houston Texans

Derrick Henry versus the NFL's worst run defense.

New York Giants +3 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Saquon Barkley verus the number 29th ranked rush defense in th league.

San Francisco 49ers -1 at Los Angeles Rams

The Super Bowl hangover continues.

Washington Commanders +3 at Indianapolis Colts

We do not know what we are going to get with Sam Ehlinger at quarterback, but I would expect some rookie mistakes.

Buffalo Bills -10 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

This is a lot of points, but you know what, one of the three double digits will probably be covered by the favorite, and I think it will be this one.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at Cleveland Browns

Cincinnati have won 4 of their last 5, and are just better than Cleveland right now.

Byes:  Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers

Big Bet:

Washington Commanders +3 at Indianapolis Colts

We do not know what we are going to get with Sam Ehlinger at quarterback, but I would expect some rookie mistakes.

I am just wondering how psyched Montez Sweat is to be going against a rookie quarterback in his first start!

Last Week's Record:  7-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  52-51-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $80

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($360)

Picks of the Week

 So last week was my worst week of the year.  Not only did I fall under .500, but I lost the big bet - a big bet that I even wrote was a horrible pick at the time I made it.  Perhaps sometimes I should listen to myself.  Anyway, perhaps a kick-start of a win on Thursday night can bring me out of the red for the season.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Arizaona Cardinals -2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Home team on a short week.  This was, finally, a great football game on Thursday night.  Week 1's Buffalo-Los Angeles matchup was a great game by the Bills, but not the Rams, and it was in Week 1, meaning not a short week.  Problem is, we will not get too many games on Thursday nights like this Arizona victory.

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

When teams do not score a lot of points (Indianapolis 17.2 per game and Tennessee 19.2 per game), I am going to want to take the points in the spread.  Plus, Matt Ryan is second in passing yards whereas Tennessee's defense is last in the NFL in pass defense.  This is a tough pick because Derrick Henry could have a huge game against Indianapolis' 20th ranked rush defense.

New York Giants +3 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Yes, the 5-1 Giants are underdogs on the road against Jacksonville.  Although I feel that New York's 5-1 record is not truly indicative of how average a team they are, they seem to come through when it matters most.  Plus, they are tied for 7th in scoring defense.  I'll take the points.

Carolina Panthers +13 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thirteen points in the NFL, on the road, in an intra-divisional game is A LOT of points.  I don't care if they did just trade Christian McCaffrey.  

Washington Commanders +4 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

So, did you know that Green Bay only averages 1 passing yard a game more than Washingon?  Sounds crazy, right?  Well, that changes as the Packers have the number 1 passing defense in the NFL, and Washington cannot run very well (24th in the NFL).  Of course, Brian Robinson is back and he looks lively.  So, you know what?  I am going to take the points, and expect a Taylor Heinicke bump.

Dallas Cowboys -6 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Detroit can score, as they are 3rd in the league in scoring offense.  But, the are alos last in the league in scoring defense, giving up an average of 32 points per game.  You read that right, 32 POINTS PER GAME!  Dallas's offense has looked pedestrian, at best, under Cooper Rush.  But, Dak Prescott is back.  Dallas makes a statement.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Honestly, this line looks a little high.  It should be about 4 1/2 in my estimation, but I am not an actuary (and THOSE people are the smartest people on the planet.)  Still, I am going to give the points for two reasons:  (1) Cincinati is 9th in passing offense and Atlanta is 31st in passing defense; and (2) Cincinnati is 3rd in third down percentage offense and Atlanta is 30th in third down percentage defense.  Frankly, you can score a lot of points if the other team cannot stop you on third-down.

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Our third consecutive 6 1/2 point spread, and trust me, I hate giving points on all three of the games.  But, I am going to do it, most reluctantly on this game and here is why.  Rushing.  But Pepster, Cleveland has the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL led by Nick Chubb, with some Kareem Hunt thrown in.  Correct, they do.  But, Baltimore is 8th in rushing defense, and could slow down the Browns' runners, some.  And, even with J.K. Dobbins out, Kenyan Drake is averaging more yards per carry than Nick Chubb.  Plus, Lamar Jackson is the 4th leading rusher in the NFL himself.

Denver Broncos +1 1/2 v. New York Jets

This pick is amazingly stupid, except there is a reason the spread is only 1 1/2.  First, the Broncos only give up 16 points per game.  Second, the Jets are travelling to altitude.  Third, is it possible that Wilson being out is the ultimate addition-by-subtraction?  Do the Broncos get a Brett Rypien/Josh Johnson bump?  I say yes.  Or even if they don't, Jets win 10-9.  Denver did play Monday night, which does not bode well for this pick, but Russell Wilson will not play today, and I think that makes the difference.

Houston Texans +7 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders might be the most disappointing team in the NFL right now, and, if they really want to make the playoffs, they have to start winning somewhere.  This looks like the right spot for that.  Easy pickings.  But, we know that sometimes the obvious bet isn't the smartest play.  Houston - as is typical in Lovie Smith-led teams - doesn't give up many points (13th in the league), and if they can hold true to that form today, they will win the bet, if not the game.  Josh Jacobs has himself a game, but the Raiders only win 27-21 in a backdoor cover (which I think is my first backdoor cover prediction this season.)

Los Angeles Chargers -5 v. Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith has been playing great football, and Kenneth Walker is an emerging star at running back, but the Chargers have won 3 in a row, doing it primarily by passing the ball with the 3rd best passing offense in football.  AND, Just Herbert gets Keenan Allen back from injury after having not played since week 1.  I hate this pick because the Chargers played Monday night, but Keenan Allen didn't, so I will keep it.

Kansas City Chiefs -1 at San Francisco 49ers

Honestly, I am picking the Chiefs because I believe there will be a over-exaggeration of the impacts on the Christian McCaffrey trade.  First, San Francisco can always run the ball, no matter the running back. Second, more passes to McCaffrey means a few less to Deebo, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle.  Third, that just seems to be the way the NFL works.  Plus, with San Francisco's expected increased reliance on their running game, Kansas City has the defense (4th in the NFL in rushing defense) to try and combat it.  Now, next week's game for the 49ers with a full week of practice for McCaffrey may be a whole different matter.

Miami Dolphins -7 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I hate overexaggerating the effects of one player, or one action, or just one of anything.  But, I am going to do it here.  Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa returns, and means the world to the Dolphins and their 2nd ranked passing offense - which now gets the Steelers and their 30th ranked passing defense.

New England Patriots -8 v. Chicago Bears

I have no faith that the Bears can score meaningful points against anyone, much less a Bill Belichick coached team.

Byes:  Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles

Big Bet:

Dallas Cowboys -6 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Detroit can score, as they are 3rd in the league in scoring offense.  But, the are alos last in the league in scoring defense, giving up an average of 32 points per game.  You read that right, 32 POINTS PER GAME!  Dallas's offense has looked pedestrian, at best, under Cooper Rush.  But, Dak Prescott is back.  Dallas makes a statement.

More points than I want to give up for a big bet, but worth it in this case, I think.  Dallas's defense has been amazing, and now the offense can be as well.

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  45-44-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($445) 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($440)

Picks of the Week

 

An easy win on a big bet salvaged an otherwise losing week.  If one is to select each and every game every week, losing weeks will happen; the key is to make sure those losses are limited and the 49ers definitely helped me there.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Chicago Bears +1 v. Washington Commanders

Despite dominating, Chicago could not pull it out at home.

Minnesota Vikins -3 at Miami Dolphins

Not a big fan of having to take road favorites, but 3 is a small number, and this is the Dolphins of Skylar Thompson.  

New England Patriots +3 at Cleveland Browns

This might be some of the best coaching that Bill Belichick has ever done, and his team is only 2-3.

San Francisco 49ers -4 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

I also hate picking west coast teams flying east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, but with Atlanta's 26th ranked defense (29th against the pass), along with their pedestrian offens (22nd overall and 30th in passing), going against the number 1 total defense, number 1 rushing defense and scoring defense, and number 3 passing defense), I'll take my chances with San Francisco.  Especially since they won in the 1:00 time slot at Carolina last week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Ordinarily this would be an absurd bet.  However, Pittsburgh is reeling, and they are still trying to find their footing under Kenny Pickett.  And even though Tampa Bay's office has struggled at times this year, they are still the 3rd passing offense in the league whereas Pittsburgh passing defense is 30th, giving up over 287 yards per game.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at New Orleans Saints

This Saints offense is better than most people would think, ranking 5th in the NFL in total offense, and 10th in rushing and their defense is about the same as the Bengals, but Joe Burrow is returning to the Caesar's Superdome, so I expect him to have a huge game.  Also, the Saints have the 23rd ranked rushing defense so perhaps Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine can get the running game on track.

New York Giants + 5 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore's defense is horrible this year, as they are 28th in total defense, and last in passing defense.  The Giants on the other hand are 2nd in rushing offense, and stingy in giving up points, being 9th in scoring defense.  I think Baltimore wins this game, but the Giants should keep it close.

Green Bay Packers -8 v. New York Jets

On the season, the Jets have a better passing game than the Packers (9th to 19th), but most of that is based upon Joe Flacco's work, not Zach Wilson's.  Strangely, the strength of the Packers this year is defense (2nd in passing defense, 4th in 3rd down defense and 5th in total defense).  Plus, Green Bay has bounced back after every loss this year.  Honestly, I wanted to take the points in this game, but changed my mind as I typed.

Jacksonville Jaguars +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Both of these teams are remarkably similar:  16/13 in total offense; 15/13 in passing offense; 7/6 in total defense; 14/16 in passing defense; 6/4 in rushing defense.  So, being that close, I will take the points, plus the fact that Indianapolis is last in scoring in the NFL.

Arizona Cardinals -2 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

The Geno Smith resurgence is an amazing story, but this Seahawks defense is sooooo bad (last overall, and in rushing defense, 31st in scorind defense and 26th in passing defense).

Los Angeles Rams -10 v. Carolina Panthers

So the Rams are playing nowhere near good enough to be a double digit favorite against anyone, except for all of the news that the Panthers are listening to trade offers for absolutely everyone, including Christian McCaffrey.  That cannot be good for morale.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

This should be the most exciting game of the year, on paper, and points should be flying across the board as both teams average over 30 points per game.  But, Buffalo also has a defense (1st in scoring, 2nd overall, 2nd rushing, 5th passing), which will be the difference in this game.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys being undefeated under Cooper Rush is a nice story, but that is exactly what it is.  They are 27th in passing offense, and 24th in points.  The Eagles have a great offense (2nd overall, 5th in scoring, 5th in rushing, 7th in passing) AND a stout defense (4th overall, 6th passing, 7th scoring, 10th rushing).  The Eagles solidify the top spot in the NFC East.

Los Angeles Chargers -5 v. Denver Broncos

This is definitely strength versus strength - The Chargers passing offense (2nd) versus the Broncos passing defense (1st).  Although Denver may be tough to score against, they also have problems scoring themselves, averaging only 15 points per game.  The Chargers by a touchdown.

Byes:  Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans

Big Bet:

San Francisco 49ers -4 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

I also hate picking west coast teams flying east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, but with Atlanta's 26th ranked defense (29th against the pass), along with their pedestrian offens (22nd overall and 30th in passing), going against the number 1 total defense, number 1 rushing defense and scoring defense, and number 3 passing defense), I'll take my chances with San Francisco.  Especially since they won in the 1:00 time slot at Carolina last week.

I am going to regret this by going to the well one too many times but this bet - that goes against all of the rules for a bet in general, much less a big bet - but I will give it a shot.

Last Week's Record:  7-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  39-36-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-1-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($140) 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  $5

Picks of the Week

 

So the damn big bet got me this past week, as I finished with more wins than losses, but still lost money.  Guess I need to pay more attention to the big bet.  For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Denver Broncos -3 v. Indianapolis Colts

God was this awful.

Green Bay Packers -8 v. New York Giants (in London)

This game is coming to us from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.  I feel like Green Bay will win big because they are basically the Tottenham Hotspur of the NFL, so this should feel like a home game.

Minnesota Vikings -7 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

The Bears still have not given up a touchdown in the second half.  I don't know if that streak will continue, but it probably won't matter.

Detroit Lions +3 at New England Patriots

Let the Bailey Zappe era begin (and end!)

Pittsburgh Steelers +14 at Buffalo Bills

This is just a lot of points.

New York Jets +3 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

You would be shocked if I told you that the Jets total offense was better than the Dolphins (8th to 10th) and the Jets defense was WAY better than the Dolphins (8th to 28th.)  Yes I will take the points at home.

Atlanta Falcons +10 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a lot of points considering that the Buccaneers only score 20.5 points per game, and Atlanta is actually 8th in scoring offense in the league.

New Orleans Saints -5 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle's defense is next-to-last in the NFL is total defense and scoring defense, 29th against the rush and 28th against the pass.

Jacksonville Jaguars -7 v. Houston Texans

I honestly had no idea what I was going to do here, but Jacksonville is the 6th leading scoring team in the NFL, and the Texans are only 26th.  That is as good a place to start as any.

Tennessee Titans -1 at Washington Commanders

I still love typing "Commanders" instead of "Football Team" and "Racists."  This game should be one that nobody wants to watch.

Cleveland Browns +1 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles is a west coast team travelling east playing in the early game, so of course I am picking the Browns.

San Francisco 49ers -6 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

I was thinking this would be 3 1/2 or 4 points, but I am still taking it at 6 1/2.  Carolina is last in the league in total offense and 18th in total defense.  Those numbers are not going to get it done.

Dallas Cowboys +5 at Los Angeles Rams

The teams are remarkably similar on offense (Rams 26th; Dallas 28th), but Dallas's defense is much, much better.  Los Angeles's defense just doesn't look the same.  Perhaps Von Miller was important?

Philadelphia Eagles -5 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona has been incredibly disappointing so far, and the Eagles are great on offense (2nd overall) and defense (3rd overall.)

Cincinnati Bengals +3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore is one-sided, this time over-relying on its offense as the defense struggles (30th overall, last in oassing defense, 23rd in scoring defense.)

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Patrick Mahomes loves prime time.

Big Bet:

San Francisco 49ers -6 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

I was thinking this would be 3 1/2 or 4 points, but I am still taking it at 6 1/2.  Carolina is last in the league in total offense and 18th in total defense.  Those numbers are not going to get it done.

Honestly, I hate taking road teams, much less road favorites, for my big bet, but this seems like the easiest game to pick to me.

Last Week's Record:  8-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  32-29-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-1-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($135) 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  $145

Picks of the Week

 

So this past week is more the norm for most seasoned gamblers; tremendously close.  We just hope that we finish slightly ahead most week; and thankfully that happened last week.  I will always take a plus week.  Can I keep that up?  We shall see.  For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Cincinnati Bengals -4 v. Miami Dolphins

Two Thursday night wins in a row!  Follow the rules and everything eventually comes out allright.

Chicago Bears +3 at New York Giants

I am accused of picking the Bears because they are my favorite team.  I would not do that to my wallet.  I am 1-1-1 on Bears picks this year so far.  I pick them here not because in the back recesses of my mind I think they will win, but because I am getting 3 points against a team that is playing a 1:00 game on a short week.  Plus, the Bears are the numbr 2 rushing offense in the NFL and the Giants are the 25th rushing defense.  I will gladly take those points, especially with Leonard Williams out.

Minnesota Vikings -4 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints (in London)

No Jameis Winston, no Alvin Kamara, no Michael Thomas, no Noah Vannet, no Andrus Peat, no Marcus Maye, etc., etc., etc.

Los Angeles Chargers -6 at Houston Texans

If you look just at the scores, you would think that Houston has played everyone tough and close - and you would be right.  But, you really have to look at the real numbers.  Houston is 29th in total offense (25th in passing, 27th in rushing, and 26th in scoring) all while being in last in third-down conversions.  On defense Houston is 31st, while being last in rushing defense.  Their salvation, tied for 12th in scoring defense.  Those numbers cannot hold.  I'll take the Chargers.

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Detroit went from playing everyone tough last year to actually playing this year, at least on offense.  The Lions are 2nd in scoring offense, 3rd in total offense and rushing offense.  Yes, they will miss Amon-Ra St. Brown, and yes the defense isn't quite up to the offense's levels (last in scoring defense), but Seattle is a poor offensive team.  I'll take the Lions.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

In most seasons, a 2-1 Jaguars team that is first in their division would be the story to date in the NFL.  Not this year.  The story this year is the Philadelphia Eagles and their dynamic offense (1st overall, 3rd in passing, 5th in scoring and 7th in rushing - not to mention 2nd in 3rd down conversions.)  The Jags are lead by their defense however (1st in rushing, 4th in scoring, 7th in total defense), but their 21st ranked passing defense will let them down.  They have nobody to cover A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith.

New York Jets +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Zach Wilson is back, but I am not sold on him yet.  What I am sold on is that the Steelers defense is lousy (17th in scoring, 22nd in passing, 25 in total, 28th in rushing), and their offense is even worse (last in total offense, 28th in passing, 22nd in rushing, and thanks to some defensive touchdowns, 19th in scoring).  And Pittsburgh is GIVING points.  I'll take them.

Cleveland Browns -1 at Atlanta Falcons

Stop me if you have heard this before ... Cleveland has the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL.  They will bruise and batter the Falcons, who are a respectable 16th against the run, but 23rd in total defense and 26th in scoring defense.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Neither of these teams are where they thought they would be at this point, but both teams had their first victory - and good ones at that - last week, with the Titans beating the Raiders and the Colts defeating the Chiefs.  Both teams have been below par offensively, while the Colts have at least been playing defense (6th against the rush, 3rd overall.)  I, however, don't think the offensive rankings are indicative of either of these teams capabilities, so I am just going to take the points.

Dallas Cowboys -3 v. Washington Commanders

I just love typing "Commanders" instead of "Football Team" and "Racists."  But, I am going to take Dallas here.  Their offense has been very respectable under Cooper Rush, and they are at home.  Washington's previously strong defense has not been so this year (28th in total defense and scoring defense).  Washington has been winning the third down battles on offense (6th) and defense (5th), but that isn't sustainable when you aren't getting the job done on the other downs.

Buffalo Bills -3 at Baltimore Ravens

This game should be incredibly exciting.  The Ravens have the top scoring offense in the NFL while the Bills are 3rd.  However, the Bills have the number 1 passing offense and the Ravens are last in the NFL (granted a lot of that occurred in 1 game, but still).  Giving the points on the road because of the Bills defense (1st overall, 2nd in rushing and passing, 4th in scoring.)

Arizona Cardinals +1 at Carolina Panthers

Nobody wants to watch this game.  I mean nobody.

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders at 0-3 are the most disappointing team so far in the NFL.  They are 28th in rushing offense, 21st in total defense, and just generally boring.  Denver has been playing great defense (2nd in scoring, 3rd in total and passing, 6th in rushing) and are getting points in a division rivalry.  I'll take the points.

Green Bay Packers -9 1/2 v. New England Patriots

I know, I know Bill Belichick blah, blah, blah.  Also Brain Hoyer.  I would actually be excited to see Bailey Zappe come and sling it around, but we probably won't.  At least I have Damien Harris in fantasy.

Kansas City Chiefs +1 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa's offense has been horrible (28th in total offense, 25th in rushing offense, 22nd in passing and 22nd in scoring).  The defense has given up the fewest points in the NFL, but we all know Kansas City can score points.  So, I'll take some here.

Los Angeles Rams +1 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

The Rams offense has been paltry so far this year, but they have too many players for that to last.  Unfortunately they are runing up against a tough 49ers defense (1st against the pass, 2nd in total defense, 3rd in scoring defense and 4th against the run.)  Everything says take the 49ers at home.  So, I am going the opposite direction.  The Rams finally shed their Super Bowl hangover.

Big Bet:

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Detroit went from playing everyone tough last year to actually playing this year, at least on offense.  The Lions are 2nd in scoring offense, 3rd in total offense and rushing offense.  Yes, they will miss Amon-Ra St. Brown, and yes the defense isn't quite up to the offense's levels (last in scoring defense), but Seattle is a poor offensive team.  I'll take the Lions.

Detroit is playing at home, and not giving up too many points - which is the recipe I like for a big bet.  My other thoughts were the Chargers (giving up points on the road), Philadelphia (giving up too many points) and the Browns on the road).   Man, I really want to take Cleveland here.

Last Week's Record:  8-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  24-22-2

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-0-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $180 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  $280

Picks of the Week

Well, my major winning streak ends at 1.  A super roller coaster start to the season.  That means this week should be good, right?  Since I am visiting the President's Cup, I don't have much time to think, nay overthink, my picks, so hopefully that is a good sign.  For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Cleveland Browns -4 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Finally a Thursday night win!

Chicago Bears -3 v. Houston Texans

I don't like this bet at all, but the Bears are never worse than when playing against Aaron Rodgers.  Rodgers is not on the Texans.

Detroit Lions +6 at Minnesonta Vikings

Minnesota should win this game.  But, Detroit is going to be a tough out for everybody this year!

Baltimore Ravens -3 at New England Patriots

Gotta take some road favorites, and New England's offense is nowhere near as explosive as Miami's.  Look for Baltimore to take an early lead and not give it away!

Carolina Panthers +2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Honestly, this pick is because I am not sure if Jameis Winston will play, and if he does, whether he will be effective due to injury.

Kansas City Chiefs -5 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

This is probably the week that the Colts remember they have Jonathan Taylor on their team, so take this pick with a grain of salt, but until they do, Kansas City for sure.

Washington Commanders +6 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are much better than the Commanders and will win this game.  However, Washington has been able to move the ball themselves, so I look for a closer game than most.

Miami Dolphins +4 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

If you play defensive back, please give the Buffalo Bills a call as they have virtually nobody healthy at that position.  Oh yeah, that is the position that would cover Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

New York Jets +6 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati is giving up too many points considering they have done nothing but disappoint so far this season.  Could they regain the form from the end of last season?  Of course they could.  But, I am not betting on it.

Las Vegas Raiders -2 at Tennesee Titans

Everybody that follows this blog should know my rule against betting for west coast teams travelling to the east coast and playing the early game (the fail to cover approximately 2/3 of the time.)  Good thing Nashville is in the central time zone.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

This line opened at double digits earlier this week.  If the line has fallen that much, there is no way that Justin Herbert is playing, and maybe Keenan Allen misses too!

Atlanta Falcons +1 at Seattle Seahawks

This is an awful, awful game.

Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

At some point in time the Rams offense has to pick up, right?

Green Bay Packers +1 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Honestly, neither Aaron Rodgers nor Tom Brady has any idea who is going to be catching passes in this game.

San Francisco 49ers -1 at Denver Broncos

Denver has yet to impress anyone this year, and the 49ers offense seems to run more smoothly with Jimmy Garoppolo.

New York Giants -1 v. Dallas Cowboys

Why not?  Does this game actually count for something?

Big Bet:

Baltimore Ravens -3 at New England Patriots

Gotta take some road favorites, and New England's offense is nowhere near as explosive as Miami's.  Look for Baltimore to take an early lead and not give it away!

My rule - Always pick a home team for the big bet, and try to pick one getting points.  Way to not follow your own rules!

Last Week's Record:  4-11-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  16-15-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-0-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($810) 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  $100