Picks of the Week

 

An easy win on a big bet salvaged an otherwise losing week.  If one is to select each and every game every week, losing weeks will happen; the key is to make sure those losses are limited and the 49ers definitely helped me there.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Chicago Bears +1 v. Washington Commanders

Despite dominating, Chicago could not pull it out at home.

Minnesota Vikins -3 at Miami Dolphins

Not a big fan of having to take road favorites, but 3 is a small number, and this is the Dolphins of Skylar Thompson.  

New England Patriots +3 at Cleveland Browns

This might be some of the best coaching that Bill Belichick has ever done, and his team is only 2-3.

San Francisco 49ers -4 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

I also hate picking west coast teams flying east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, but with Atlanta's 26th ranked defense (29th against the pass), along with their pedestrian offens (22nd overall and 30th in passing), going against the number 1 total defense, number 1 rushing defense and scoring defense, and number 3 passing defense), I'll take my chances with San Francisco.  Especially since they won in the 1:00 time slot at Carolina last week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Ordinarily this would be an absurd bet.  However, Pittsburgh is reeling, and they are still trying to find their footing under Kenny Pickett.  And even though Tampa Bay's office has struggled at times this year, they are still the 3rd passing offense in the league whereas Pittsburgh passing defense is 30th, giving up over 287 yards per game.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at New Orleans Saints

This Saints offense is better than most people would think, ranking 5th in the NFL in total offense, and 10th in rushing and their defense is about the same as the Bengals, but Joe Burrow is returning to the Caesar's Superdome, so I expect him to have a huge game.  Also, the Saints have the 23rd ranked rushing defense so perhaps Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine can get the running game on track.

New York Giants + 5 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore's defense is horrible this year, as they are 28th in total defense, and last in passing defense.  The Giants on the other hand are 2nd in rushing offense, and stingy in giving up points, being 9th in scoring defense.  I think Baltimore wins this game, but the Giants should keep it close.

Green Bay Packers -8 v. New York Jets

On the season, the Jets have a better passing game than the Packers (9th to 19th), but most of that is based upon Joe Flacco's work, not Zach Wilson's.  Strangely, the strength of the Packers this year is defense (2nd in passing defense, 4th in 3rd down defense and 5th in total defense).  Plus, Green Bay has bounced back after every loss this year.  Honestly, I wanted to take the points in this game, but changed my mind as I typed.

Jacksonville Jaguars +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Both of these teams are remarkably similar:  16/13 in total offense; 15/13 in passing offense; 7/6 in total defense; 14/16 in passing defense; 6/4 in rushing defense.  So, being that close, I will take the points, plus the fact that Indianapolis is last in scoring in the NFL.

Arizona Cardinals -2 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

The Geno Smith resurgence is an amazing story, but this Seahawks defense is sooooo bad (last overall, and in rushing defense, 31st in scorind defense and 26th in passing defense).

Los Angeles Rams -10 v. Carolina Panthers

So the Rams are playing nowhere near good enough to be a double digit favorite against anyone, except for all of the news that the Panthers are listening to trade offers for absolutely everyone, including Christian McCaffrey.  That cannot be good for morale.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

This should be the most exciting game of the year, on paper, and points should be flying across the board as both teams average over 30 points per game.  But, Buffalo also has a defense (1st in scoring, 2nd overall, 2nd rushing, 5th passing), which will be the difference in this game.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys being undefeated under Cooper Rush is a nice story, but that is exactly what it is.  They are 27th in passing offense, and 24th in points.  The Eagles have a great offense (2nd overall, 5th in scoring, 5th in rushing, 7th in passing) AND a stout defense (4th overall, 6th passing, 7th scoring, 10th rushing).  The Eagles solidify the top spot in the NFC East.

Los Angeles Chargers -5 v. Denver Broncos

This is definitely strength versus strength - The Chargers passing offense (2nd) versus the Broncos passing defense (1st).  Although Denver may be tough to score against, they also have problems scoring themselves, averaging only 15 points per game.  The Chargers by a touchdown.

Byes:  Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans

Big Bet:

San Francisco 49ers -4 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

I also hate picking west coast teams flying east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, but with Atlanta's 26th ranked defense (29th against the pass), along with their pedestrian offens (22nd overall and 30th in passing), going against the number 1 total defense, number 1 rushing defense and scoring defense, and number 3 passing defense), I'll take my chances with San Francisco.  Especially since they won in the 1:00 time slot at Carolina last week.

I am going to regret this by going to the well one too many times but this bet - that goes against all of the rules for a bet in general, much less a big bet - but I will give it a shot.

Last Week's Record:  7-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  39-36-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-1-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($140) 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  $5