Picks of the Week - NFL Week 11

 

Well, back on track with a winning week from a record standpoint, but my "Big Bet" has become the bane of my existence this year, falling to 2-8!!!  That is horrible.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots -12 1/2 v. New York Jets

Of course I am going to pick New England here, even though I do not like the 12 1/2 points.  Short week, so home team, and even though the Jets have a pretty good pass defense (8th overall), they are 26th in scoring defense, whereas the Patriots are 8th in scoring.  And now that they are finally starting to unleash Trayveon Henderson, I can see this being 31-14.

Miami Dolphins -2 1/2 v. Washington Commanders in Berlin, Germany

Mike McDaniels just looks like the type of guy that would win this game and then go clubbin' in Berlin.  By the way, the Moxy Obstanhof's hotel bar is open 24 hours a day!!!  True story.  Oh yeah, and no Jayden Daniels.

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

I want to be soooo wrong here, but this Bears defense struggled at times against both Cincinnati and the New York Giants in the last two games - albeit both were wins.  Minnesota is a lot better than both of those teams.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Only, AND I DO MEAN ONLY, because this game is in the 1:00 time slot in Jacksonville.  I could make up some other reason, like Jacksonville is angry at themselves after last week's collapse against Houston, but even that doesn't make up for the talent difference between these two teams.  So, they only reason is getting points at home in the Eastern time zone in the 1:00 game against a Pacific time zone team.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Yes, Tampa Bay lost last week, but they lost to the Patriots which, it turns out, is a pretty damn good team.  The Bills just lost to the Dolphins.  And although we shouldn't read too much into just one game, the Bills haven't looked all that great, despite being 6-3.  At least, not great enough to give up 5 1/2 points.  They may win, but if they won 28-24, would that surprise anyone?

Green Bay Packers -7 1/2 at New York Giants

I have no idea how to evaluate this game, because it looks like Jameis Winston might be starting if Jaxson Dart doesn't clear concussion protocol.  Even if he does, still who knows.  I'll just take the favorite and hope for the best.

Tennessee Titans +6 1/2 v. Houston Texans

I DO NOT WANT TO DO THIS.  But, with my record this year, I do not need to tempt the gambling gods.  I will not take a road favorite in an intra-divisional game.  Besides, maybe Houston spent its mojo in last week's massive comeback against the Jaguars!

Carolina Panthers +3 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

So this came down to simply just taking the points.  But, if I had to analyze, I would just look at the defenses.  Carolina is 17th against the rush, and Atlanta is 29th against the rush - advantage:  Rico Dowdle, who is third in the NFL in rushing behind Jonathan Taylor and James Cook.  Atlanta does have the number 1 defense against the pass, but Carolina is a horrible passing offense anyway (30th).  So, I'll take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals +4 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

This is another case in which I am taking the points.  Cincinnati is coming off a bye week after its offense just had a phenomenal outing against the Chicago Bears defense behind Joe Flacco.  Pittsburgh has the worst defense in the league against the pass, and J'Marr Chase is second in receiving yards and the aforementioned Flacco has a 102.6 passer rating, with 11 TDs against on 2 INTs.

San Francisco 49ers -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Damnit.  I hate take intra-divisional road favorites, but they do hit sometimes.  I'll take this one because it IS less than a field goal, and because Jacoby Brissett is starting for Arizona (which could be up-and-down).  But, with Marvin Harrison, Jr. out with his appendix (see what I did there?), his Brissett-led resurgence will not continue, so no level of Trey-McBrideness can defeat San Francisco alone, especially with the 20th ranked pass defense of Arizona defending the #1 passing offense in all of the NFL, which might - MIGHT - see the return of Ricky Pearsall! 

Seattle Seahawks +3 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Two very evenly matched teams on both sides of the ball, fighting for the top of the division.  I am doing nothing more than taking points in the game that I think should be the best game of the weekend!

Denver Broncos +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Another game that looks like a road intra-divisional favorite should win, as we keep waiting for Denver's offense to finally show up.  But, JK Dobbins' injury could hurt the Broncos, which may force them to open things up more in the passing game, which could play more to Bo Nix's strengths, and the myriad receivers they can run out against the Chiefs' defense.  Plus, I have another intra-divisional road favorite that I want to pick next.

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

Baltimore is cruising with a three-game win streak, while Browns fans are clamoring for Shadeur Sanders!  I wish this was 6 1/2 because of Cleveland's second rated total defense, but I still think Baltimore runs away with this one.

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I get Detroit's rejuvenated offense with Dan Campbell's play-calling AND points?!  I'll take it, especially since Detroit averages over a touchdown more a game than Philadelphia!

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

I do not want to watch this game.  I sure hope there are some good college basketball matchups.

Byes:  Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I get Detroit's rejuvenated offense with Dan Campbell's play-calling AND points?!  I'll take it, especially since Detroit averages over a touchdown more a game than Philadelphia!

A prolific offense getting points against a team with a lot of wins, but not a lot of points.

Last Week Record: 8-6

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 69-80

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-8

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($25)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,920) 

Picks of the Week

 

So this past week is more the norm for most seasoned gamblers; tremendously close.  We just hope that we finish slightly ahead most week; and thankfully that happened last week.  I will always take a plus week.  Can I keep that up?  We shall see.  For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Cincinnati Bengals -4 v. Miami Dolphins

Two Thursday night wins in a row!  Follow the rules and everything eventually comes out allright.

Chicago Bears +3 at New York Giants

I am accused of picking the Bears because they are my favorite team.  I would not do that to my wallet.  I am 1-1-1 on Bears picks this year so far.  I pick them here not because in the back recesses of my mind I think they will win, but because I am getting 3 points against a team that is playing a 1:00 game on a short week.  Plus, the Bears are the numbr 2 rushing offense in the NFL and the Giants are the 25th rushing defense.  I will gladly take those points, especially with Leonard Williams out.

Minnesota Vikings -4 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints (in London)

No Jameis Winston, no Alvin Kamara, no Michael Thomas, no Noah Vannet, no Andrus Peat, no Marcus Maye, etc., etc., etc.

Los Angeles Chargers -6 at Houston Texans

If you look just at the scores, you would think that Houston has played everyone tough and close - and you would be right.  But, you really have to look at the real numbers.  Houston is 29th in total offense (25th in passing, 27th in rushing, and 26th in scoring) all while being in last in third-down conversions.  On defense Houston is 31st, while being last in rushing defense.  Their salvation, tied for 12th in scoring defense.  Those numbers cannot hold.  I'll take the Chargers.

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Detroit went from playing everyone tough last year to actually playing this year, at least on offense.  The Lions are 2nd in scoring offense, 3rd in total offense and rushing offense.  Yes, they will miss Amon-Ra St. Brown, and yes the defense isn't quite up to the offense's levels (last in scoring defense), but Seattle is a poor offensive team.  I'll take the Lions.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

In most seasons, a 2-1 Jaguars team that is first in their division would be the story to date in the NFL.  Not this year.  The story this year is the Philadelphia Eagles and their dynamic offense (1st overall, 3rd in passing, 5th in scoring and 7th in rushing - not to mention 2nd in 3rd down conversions.)  The Jags are lead by their defense however (1st in rushing, 4th in scoring, 7th in total defense), but their 21st ranked passing defense will let them down.  They have nobody to cover A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith.

New York Jets +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Zach Wilson is back, but I am not sold on him yet.  What I am sold on is that the Steelers defense is lousy (17th in scoring, 22nd in passing, 25 in total, 28th in rushing), and their offense is even worse (last in total offense, 28th in passing, 22nd in rushing, and thanks to some defensive touchdowns, 19th in scoring).  And Pittsburgh is GIVING points.  I'll take them.

Cleveland Browns -1 at Atlanta Falcons

Stop me if you have heard this before ... Cleveland has the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL.  They will bruise and batter the Falcons, who are a respectable 16th against the run, but 23rd in total defense and 26th in scoring defense.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Neither of these teams are where they thought they would be at this point, but both teams had their first victory - and good ones at that - last week, with the Titans beating the Raiders and the Colts defeating the Chiefs.  Both teams have been below par offensively, while the Colts have at least been playing defense (6th against the rush, 3rd overall.)  I, however, don't think the offensive rankings are indicative of either of these teams capabilities, so I am just going to take the points.

Dallas Cowboys -3 v. Washington Commanders

I just love typing "Commanders" instead of "Football Team" and "Racists."  But, I am going to take Dallas here.  Their offense has been very respectable under Cooper Rush, and they are at home.  Washington's previously strong defense has not been so this year (28th in total defense and scoring defense).  Washington has been winning the third down battles on offense (6th) and defense (5th), but that isn't sustainable when you aren't getting the job done on the other downs.

Buffalo Bills -3 at Baltimore Ravens

This game should be incredibly exciting.  The Ravens have the top scoring offense in the NFL while the Bills are 3rd.  However, the Bills have the number 1 passing offense and the Ravens are last in the NFL (granted a lot of that occurred in 1 game, but still).  Giving the points on the road because of the Bills defense (1st overall, 2nd in rushing and passing, 4th in scoring.)

Arizona Cardinals +1 at Carolina Panthers

Nobody wants to watch this game.  I mean nobody.

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders at 0-3 are the most disappointing team so far in the NFL.  They are 28th in rushing offense, 21st in total defense, and just generally boring.  Denver has been playing great defense (2nd in scoring, 3rd in total and passing, 6th in rushing) and are getting points in a division rivalry.  I'll take the points.

Green Bay Packers -9 1/2 v. New England Patriots

I know, I know Bill Belichick blah, blah, blah.  Also Brain Hoyer.  I would actually be excited to see Bailey Zappe come and sling it around, but we probably won't.  At least I have Damien Harris in fantasy.

Kansas City Chiefs +1 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa's offense has been horrible (28th in total offense, 25th in rushing offense, 22nd in passing and 22nd in scoring).  The defense has given up the fewest points in the NFL, but we all know Kansas City can score points.  So, I'll take some here.

Los Angeles Rams +1 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

The Rams offense has been paltry so far this year, but they have too many players for that to last.  Unfortunately they are runing up against a tough 49ers defense (1st against the pass, 2nd in total defense, 3rd in scoring defense and 4th against the run.)  Everything says take the 49ers at home.  So, I am going the opposite direction.  The Rams finally shed their Super Bowl hangover.

Big Bet:

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Detroit went from playing everyone tough last year to actually playing this year, at least on offense.  The Lions are 2nd in scoring offense, 3rd in total offense and rushing offense.  Yes, they will miss Amon-Ra St. Brown, and yes the defense isn't quite up to the offense's levels (last in scoring defense), but Seattle is a poor offensive team.  I'll take the Lions.

Detroit is playing at home, and not giving up too many points - which is the recipe I like for a big bet.  My other thoughts were the Chargers (giving up points on the road), Philadelphia (giving up too many points) and the Browns on the road).   Man, I really want to take Cleveland here.

Last Week's Record:  8-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  24-22-2

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-0-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $180 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  $280

Professional Football Wrap-Up

Here are my thoughts from Week 13 of the NFL season.

Game of the Week

Baltimore Ravens 20 - San Francisco 49ers 17.  This game established supremacy (for now at least) for the Baltimore Ravens at the top of the NFL heap.  By defeating San Francisco, Baltimore showed that it is currently the best team in the NFL.  This game had Lamar Jackson in all his Lamar Jacksonest, the San Francisco defensive line at its defensive liniest, and ended when the NFL's all time most accurate kicker Justin Tucker kicked a 49 yard field goal as time expired.  Despite sloppy weather conditions, this was the best game of the weekend, and I could take this as a Super Bowl matchup.  (Seattle defeating Minnesota 37-30 was not far behind.

Best Team Performance

Kansas City Chiefs.  Kansas City, in a game that would determine first place in the AFC West, just thoroughly annihilated the Oakland Raiders 40-9, and in the process undid all confidence that Raiders may have had that they could or should  make the playoffs.  Kansas City asserted itself near the top of the AFC.

Least Impressive Team Performance

New York Jets.  Coming off 3 consecutive wins, and an impressive win at home over the Raiders, the Jets laid an absolute egg against the formerly winless Cincinnati Bengals 22-6.  Sam Darnold only threw for 239 yards (and 0 TDs), and leading ruser Le'Veon Bell carried the ball for a whopping 32 yards.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Jared Goff, QB - Los Angeles Rams.  Goff had an incredible game as the Rams destroyed the Arizona Cardinals 34=7.  He was 32-43 for 424 yards and 2 TD as the Rams scored 34 straight points through three quarters.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)

Cameron Jordan, DE, New Orleans Saints.  Jordan had 6 tackles, 4 of the sacks to pace the New Orleans defense as the Saints beat their division rival Atlanta Falcons 26-18, and regain some respect after falling to the Saints 3 weeks ago.  Honorable mention to Ed Oliver, who had 2 sacks as the Bills beat the Dallas Cowboys.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Justin Tucker, K - Baltimore Ravens.  The most accurate kicker in NFL history, who has made 1,235,947 consecutive field goals under 40, uncorked a 49-yard game winner as time expired, propelling the Ravens to a 20-17 victory over the San Francisco 49ers.

Most Impressive Team Performance (Premier League)

Tottenham Hotspurs.  Behind new boss Jose Mourinho, Tottenham defeated Bournemouth 3-2 to propel themselves into 6th in table.  Tottenham got an brace from Dele Alli as he scored his two a half hour apart, and third, and decisive goal from Moussa Sissoko was assisted by the most underrated player in world football - Heung-Min Son.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Premier League)

Virgil Van Dijk, D - Liverpool.  The central defender scored a brace in a six minute span, both on headers off set-pieces, including one corner, as Liverpool maintained its lead in the Premier League table with a 2-1 defeat of Brighton and Hove Albion.  Both goals were crucial as BHA scored a 79th minute goal after a 76th minute straight read to Liverpool goalkeeper Allison.

Goat of the Week

Nick Foles, QB - Jacksonville Jaguars.  Nick Foles was 7-14 for 93 yards and 1 TD in the first half of Jacksonville's 28-11 loss at the hands of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before being pulled for Gardner Minshew II - for the remainder of the season.

Goat of the Week (Premier League)

Allison, GK - Liverpool.  How many yellow a red cards can one goalkeeper receive in a year.

Hit of the Week

Did not really see too many great hits this week, so no response this time.

Breakthrough Performance

Zach Pascal, WR - Indianapolis Colts.  Indianapolis, desperately looking for offense from somewhere during their 31-17 loss to the Tennessee Titans, found Pascal for 7 catches for 109 yards in what could be the start of something really important for the Colts.

Finally

James Washington, WR - Pittsburgh Steelers.  Washington, only receiving maximum playing time due to the injury of JuJu Smith-Schuster, utilized his speed to catch 4 balls for 111 yards and 1 TD in Pittsburgh's 20-13 victory over Cleveland.

Impact Injury

Dalvin Cook, RB - Minnesota Vikings.  Cook was removed from this week's 37-30 defeat to the Seattle Seahawks with an apparent shoulder injury. Should Cook not be able to play in any of the last 4 games, the NFC playoff race becomes much more muddled, especially since Minnesota is fighting for the NFC North division title and/or a wildcard. 

Team Rising

Chicago Bears.  By defeating the Detroit Lions 24-20 on Thanksgiving Day, the Bears have gotten themselves back to a 6-6 record. This is important because 3 wins could get them back into the playoffs this year, especially if Dalvin Cook misses multiple games for the Vikings.  The Bears schedule though is Dallas, Green Bay, Kansas City and Minnesota.

Team Falling

Dallas Cowboys/Philadelphia Eagles.  Both NFC East rivals lost this week; Dallas 26-15 to the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia 37-31 to the Miami Dolphins.  The downfall of the Cowboys (6-6) and Eagles (5-7) has kept the Washington Racists (3-9) and the New York Giants (2-10) technically alive for a division title.

Best Teams

(All teams will be ranked by record, even if teams with more losses may be better than a team with fewer losses, since Bill Parcells always said that you are what your record says.  The inverse is true for the Worst Teams rankings.) (Yes, I know that you could have a worse record and be better, see e.g., Baltimore Ravens, but we are working off record.)

1. Baltimore Ravens

2. San Francisco 49ers

3. New Orleans Saints 

4. Seattle Seahawks
5. New England Patriots

Worst Teams

32. Cincinnati Bengals

31. New York Giants

30. Washington Racists

29. Atlanta Falcons

28. Miami Dolphins

Middle Teams

15. Oakland Raiders
16. Chicago Bears
17. Dallas Cowboys

18. Cleveland Browns

Last Week's Trivia Question/Answer

Last Entry's Trivia Question was:

As the lone remaining winless team, the Cincinnati Bengals have the inside track to selecting first in the 2020 NFL Draft. Name the three players in Bengals history that were selected with the number 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft.  (Hint:  There were 3).

Answer:  Dan Wilkinson (Ohio State - 1994), Ki-Jana Carter (Penn State - 1995), Carson Palmer (USC - 2003)

Preview - Game(s) of the Week

6. Tennessee Titans v. Oakland Raiders.  This game has big playoff implications for both teams, although to paraphrase the entire Dan LeBatard show - Tennessee is destined to finish 8-8.  

5. Dallas Cowboys v. Chicago Bears.  The Thursday night matchup is incredibly important for both 6-6 teams involved, although Dallas has the opportunity to win its divisions whereas the Bears only chance is to win 3 (or 4) of their tough last 4 games to have an opportunity to win a wildcard birth.

4. Kansas City Chiefs v. New England Patriots.  By record this game should be amazing, except everybody sees that New England's offense has serious problems.  The question is, can the New England defense contain the potent Kansas City offense?

3. Manchester City v. Manchester United.  This is traditionally a highly charged rivalry matchup, lessened only by the fact that Manchester United is 10th in the table.

2. Seattle Seahawks v. Los Angeles Rams.  See above for Goff's numbers last week, but let's see what numbers he can put up against a Seattle Seahawks' team that is playing its best football of the season.  

1. San Francisco 49ers v. New Orleans Saints. Two 10-2 teams, ranked 2 and 3 in my NFL rankings, with the winner making a huge stride toward home-field advantage in the NFC (with the Seahawks in contention as well).  This game should be fantastic to watch.

Trivia

Ridiculous trivia, but being Thanksgiving I didn't really pay attention to anything that could be a good trivia question.

Earlier this year, Frank Gore passed Curtis Martin for fourth place in the all-time career rushing yards.  He is now closer to third place than he is to fifth place Martin.  Who is in third place, and how many yards behind third place is Gore?

Sports Bar Review of the Week

I was driving home from the UF-FSU game on the Sunday after Thanksgiving, so needles to say, I did not get to watch any games from a sports bar.