A winning week, but just 2 plays away from a HUGE week, as the Big Bet pushed, and the Patriots covered on a last-minute punt return. UGH!!! But, I will take a winning week for sure.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks...
Detroit Lions +9 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
Dallas Cowboys -10 v. New York Giants
Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 v. New England
Home teams on short weeks cover just over 2/3rds of the time, and that is exactly what happened here! A Micah Parsons unsportsmanlike conduct penalty which directly led to a Giant touchdown with 12 seconds left is the only thing that kept this from being a sweep!
New York Jets -7 v. Chicago Bears
A lack of Justin Fields, and a lack of Zach Wilson, wins this for the Jets. And let's be straight - Justin Fields SHOULD NOT play!
Denver Broncos -1 at Carolina Panthers
In a captivating 22nd overall offense versus 32nd overall offense, I'll take the 2nd ranked defense. Plus, Denver is in the Mountain Time Zone, not the Pacific, so the 1:00 start time doesn't worry me as much.
Washington Commanders -4 v. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta barely survived the bad defense that is the Chicago Bears, and Washington is much, much better in that part of the field (5th overall, 6th against the rush). This Washington team seems rejuvenated by Taylor Heinecke and with the re-emergence of Antonio Gibson.
Houston Texans +14 at Miami Dolphins
Two touchdowns is a lot of points to give up at the start of an NFL game. Houston with a backdoor cover, maybe?
Tennessee Titans +1 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Yes, this Bengals team is a pass-first, run-second offense (4th in the NFL, 28th in the NFL respectively). But, at least the threat of Joe Mixon could slow down a safety every now and then. Now, with no Joe Mixon, Joe Burrow is going to have to do it all, likely without J'Marr Chase.
Cleveland Browns +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is largely a pick on emotion. Not my emotion, but picking on Cleveland's emotion. This might be Jacoby Brissett's last start as DeShaun Watson is due back, and he is coming off a 324 yard, 3 touchdown game. Brissett's audition for a team for next year goes well.
Baltimore Ravens -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars
This is just a gut bet as statistically these teams are very similar (Baltimore 14th total offense and 16th total defense; Jacksonville 8th total offense and19th total defense), except in scoring. Baltimore scores just enough to cover - 27-20.
Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Arizona Cardinals
In this game of mediocrity, I will take points at home, especially with Kyler Murray returning. Well, that was my initial thought, but then I remembered that Arizona played on Monday night, so the Chargers it is. Stay with the rules and you cannot overthink these things. Or can I? Ugh!
Las Vegas Raiders +4 at Seattle Seahawks
The Raiders are riding the high of last week's overtime victory over the Broncos, and continue on an upward trajectory to the 15th pick in the draft.
New Orleans Saints +9 at San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco wins this, but on a short week it is closer than it ordinarily would be.
Los Angeles Rams +15 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Wow how the Super Bowl Champs have fallen. 15 1/2 POINTS?!!! Seriously? Kansas City jumps out early only to have a late letdown to win 35-24.
Philadelphia -6 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is averaging 222.3 passing yards a game. Philadelphia is averaging 228.1, and they have a better running game and defense.
Pittsburgh +2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
Sam Ehlinger is still awaiting his first passing touchdown, and Kenny Pickett has started to play a little better the last couple of games. Not great, but better.
Big Bet:
Washington Commanders -4 v. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta barely survived the bad defense that is the Chicago Bears, and Washington is much, much better in that part of the field (5th overall, 6th against the rush). This Washington team seems rejuvenated by Taylor Heinecke and with the re-emergence of Antonio Gibson.
I seriously don't like any of these that much. I considered Denver, because I think they will win, but I don't want to take a road favorite, even if only 1 point. I thought about Tennessee as Cincinnati is without Joe Mixon, but Cincinnati beat Tennessee at Tennessee last year while giving up 1,400 sacks in the game. So, I'll take the Commanders at home.
Last Week's Record: 7-5-2
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 79-77-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 5-4-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $150
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($700)
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