Picks of the Week

 

A bad week, which although just under .500 was capped with a big bet loss, that I knew was a bad pick.  I even mentioned during the pick.  Oh well, perhaps that will count as a good sacrifice to the gambling gods which could help with this week.  Another unpopular Thursday night pick,  which became a home-team/short-week victory for me.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Carolina Panthers +2 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Home team on a short week.  Worked out, AGAIN!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle has been better this year, but it is a heckuva long way to travel from Seattle to Germany, and is it possible that Brady's game-winning drive turns the season around for the Buccaneers?  At the very lease, I feel like Brady is starting to really trust Otten.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions

I believe we have witnessed the ascension of Justin Fields!

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

I am not sure that Tennessee can score enough points. Sure, Derrick Henry is having another stellar year, but Tennessee is 26th in total defense and last in total offense.

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Believe it or not, but Cleveland has a better offense (4th) than Miami (5th), and a better defense (14th) than Miami (23rd), but Miami's team is way more explosive, and those total offense numbers are hindered by Tua being out a couple of games.  Miami covers at home.

New Orleans Saints -1 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Alvin Kamara is the difference-maker in this game, although it does look like T.J. Watt will be back.  New Orleans is just better offensively (6th v. 28th) and defensively (11th v. 29th).  I don't like that New Orleans is on a short week.

Minnesota Vikings +3 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Case Keenum is a professional quarterback, and likely could be starting somewhere, but he is no Josh Allen.

New York Giants -4 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Giants coming off a bye, and even though Dameon Pierce is having a great season, he cannot do it alone, which it seems like he is being asked to do.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

How did Patrick Mahomes throw for 446 yards last week and Kansas City only score 20 points?  That will not happen this week.

Las Vegas Raiders -4 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Jeff Saturday has an inauspicious start, bascially because of a rookie quarterback, Sam Ehlinger.

Dallas Cowboys -4 at Green Bay Packers

Green Bay continues their tumultuous fall, making the Pittsburgh Steelers question not taking Green Bay's second-round pick for Chase Claypool because they thought Chicago's would be a better pick.

Los Angeles Rams -3 v. Arizona Cardinals

And we thought this would be an important game when the season started.

San Francisco 49ers -7 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers offense has performed admirably without Keenan Allen(4th in passing), but they really need Allen against the number 1 defense in the NFL.  Plus, San Francisco gets Deebo Samuel back.

Washington Commanders +11 at Philadelphia Eagles

Double digit is way to much for an intradivisional battle.  Philadelphia wins 30-20.

Byes:  Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, New York Jets

Big Bet:

Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions

I believe we have witnessed the ascension of Justin Fields!

No, I am not reading too much into last week, as the offense was spectacular against a tough Dallas defense the prior week.  Detroit's defense is last in the NFL in total defense, scoring defense, abd 3rd down defense, 31st in rushing defense and 29th in passing defense.  Chicago is 1st in rushing in the NFL, and 9th in third-down conversions.  Fields keeps several drives alive with big third-down plays.

Last Week's Record:  6-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  65-65-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-3-1

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($335)

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($615)